2018 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2018 · Scott Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scorePITT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:51 · Brian Delaney 42 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:54: Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 42 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +4.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:21: Darrin Hall run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +25.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- FG · Q4 9:51: Brian Delaney 42 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +5.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:40: Darrin Hall run for 75 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman PAT MISSED) — PITT win probability +25.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 7:20: Darrin Hall run for 7 yds to the Virg 45 — PITT win probability +6.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 10:30UVA 4th & 22 at UVA 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snapGo for it68.1%−0.37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.5%average punt
- Q1 7:23PITT 4th & 1 at midfield, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt32.0%−0.4average punt
- Q1 2:39PITT 4th & 20 at PITT 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snapGo for it32.1%−0.710% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.8%average punt
- Q2 14:55UVA 4th & 4 at PITT 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call67.6%48% to convertField goal67.2%−0.347% to makePunt67.0%−0.6average punt
- Q2 11:23PITT 4th & 13 at PITT 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snapGo for it33.2%−1.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.3%average punt
- Q2 5:30UVA 4th & 3 at midfield, tiedClose callPunted · 66.1% before the snapGo for it66.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.2%−1.0average punt
- Q2 3:24PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt35.4%−1.3average punt
- Q2 1:15PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snapGo for it35.1%−0.747% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.8%average punt
- Q3 11:48PITT 4th & 12 at PITT 33, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snapGo for it29.1%−2.823% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.0%average punt
- Q3 9:01UVA 4th & 12 at UVA 40, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snapGo for it65.5%−2.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.7%average punt
- Q4 9:51UVA 4th & 12 at PITT 24, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.0% before the snapGo for it38.6%−4.122% to convertField goalTheir call42.8%68% to makePunt30.1%−12.7average punt
- Q4 7:32UVA 4th & 16 at UVA 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snapGo for it19.5%−3.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.8%average punt
- Q4 4:25PITT 4th & 6 at UVA 35, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 84.4% before the snapGo for it84.6%40% to convertField goalTheir call83.9%−0.845% to makePunt82.6%−2.1average punt
- Q4 2:49UVA 4th & 17 at UVA 15, down 10Numbers favored punt by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 6.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.2%−1.113% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.4%average punt
- Q4 0:50PITT 4th & 6 at UVA 11, up 10Close callWent for it · 94.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.3%−0.635% to convertField goal93.9%87% to makePunt89.3%−4.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 6:09PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call34.4%97% to makeGo for two34.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:54UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.9%97% to makeGo for two67.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:21PITT Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.2%97% to makeGo for two51.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 9:40PITT Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call74.6%97% to makeGo for two73.9%−0.745% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUVADrive 1PUNT13 plays · 10 yds · 4:0268% → 67%
PITTDrive 2TD10 plays · 84 yds · 4:2133% → 37%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
67.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Face Mask (5 yards) (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 11Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 16
OWN 10
+31
67.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Aaron Mathews for 31 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+11
67.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 11 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+41
63.0%
Darrin Hall run for 41 yds for a TD VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (1 Yards) to the Virg 2 (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3TD2 plays · 57 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
68.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 42 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 5 yds · 2:4134% → 33%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
66.1%
Qadree Ollison run for no gain to the Virg 44 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+3
65.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Will Gragg for 3 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-10
65.7%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Matt Gahm for a loss of 10 yards to the Pitt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5FUMBLE6 plays · 49 yds · 2:2767% → 68%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+40
67.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tanner Cowley for 40 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+6
67.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 6 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+3
68.0%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 34 Jordan Ellis fumbled, recovered by Virg Evan ButtsSimilar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+3
67.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Evan Butts for 3 yds Evan Butts fumbled, recovered by Pitt Dane JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 3:3135% → 35%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
65.4%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Pitt 21Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
64.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to V'Lique Carter for 1 yd to the Pitt 45Similar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 13
OWN 41
+4
65.5%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 47 yds , Chuck Davis returns for 4 yds to the Virg 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7PUNT11 plays · 34 yds · 5:4167% → 65%
PITTDrive 8PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 4:0338% → 38%
Q2 4:16
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+6
62.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 6 yds to the Pitt 8Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+5
61.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to George Aston for 5 yds to the Pitt 18Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 4
OWN 18
+8
62.5%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 47 yds , Tavares Kelly returns for 8 yds to the Virg 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9DOWNS9 plays · 45 yds · 0:5866% → 71%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
65.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 3
50
+11
66.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 11 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+18
66.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 18 yds to the Pitt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-3
67.6%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Rashad Weaver for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 24Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 13
OPP 24
+12
64.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Personal Foul (12 Yards) to the Pitt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11PUNT9 plays · 8 yds · 3:0833% → 31%
UVADrive 12PUNT9 plays · 8 yds · 2:4268% → 66%
PITTDrive 13TD15 plays · 84 yds · 8:3234% → 67%
Q3 8:20
2ND & 9
OWN 17
-2
65.9%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Bryce Hall for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 15 Kenny Pickett fumbled, recovered by Pitt Jimmy Morrissey , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 11
OWN 12
+12
67.3%
Kenny Pickett run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 12 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (15 Yards) to the Pitt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
59.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Darrin Hall for 4 yds to the Virg 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14FG12 plays · 51 yds · 5:0943% → 49%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
43.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+4
45.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tavares Kelly for 4 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+14
45.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 14 yds to the Pitt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-3
47.2%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Dewayne Hendrix for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 13
OPP 25
+3
45.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 3 yds to the Pitt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 2:0827% → 23%
PITTDrive 17FG6 plays · 17 yds · 2:5583% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18DOWNS6 plays · -7 yds · 1:158% → 5%
PITTDrive 19DOWNS4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5195% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:21
Darrin Hall run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)
-25.7
TD · Q4 9:40
Darrin Hall run for 75 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman PAT MISSED)
-25.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 7:20
Darrin Hall run for 7 yds to the Virg 45
-6.3