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UNC

North Carolina 21 at Virginia 31

UVA
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:30 · Lester Coleman punt for 41 yds, downed at the NCaro 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Home team on offense+21.8Pregame prior+1.1Garbage-time factor+14.0Score differential+2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:47: Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 27 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +4.6 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:01: Nathan Elliott pass complete to Carl Tucker for 16 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +8.3 pts (now 39%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:11: Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 33 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +8.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:54: Bryce Perkins pass complete to Evan Butts for 16 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +9.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:53: Michael Carter run for 1 yd for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +11.3 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00UVA 4th & 2 at UNC 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    71.4%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    71.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:13UNC 4th & 3 at UVA 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    27.7%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 26, down 7
    Close callPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:04UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:32UVA 4th & 8 at UNC 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    71.4%−3.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:01UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:31UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:11UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:38UVA 4th & 10 at UNC 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    79.3%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:50UNC 4th & 11 at UNC 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−2.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:17UVA 4th & 2 at UNC 17, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    82.2%−0.9
    80% to make
    Punt
    76.2%−6.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:54UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:04UVA 4th & 3 at UNC 43, up 17
    Close callPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−1.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:30UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:29UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.6%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:13UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:50UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:47UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:01UNC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:11UVA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:54UVA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:53UNC Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1TD
14 plays · 83 yds · 6:4765% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
64.7%
Bryce Perkins run for 8 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+5
64.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 5 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
64.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 12 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
64.7%
Bryce Perkins run for 19 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
64.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+3
64.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tavares Kelly for 3 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+7
64.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 7 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
64.7%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Tavares KellySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
64.7%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+8
64.7%
Bryce Perkins run for 8 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+4
64.7%
Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
64.7%
Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
67.3%
Bryce Perkins run for 10 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2333% → 38%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.6%
Antonio Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.6%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Beau Corrales for 4 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+17
66.7%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 17 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
66.0%
Antonio Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+6
66.0%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 6 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
65.9%
Antonio Williams run for 2 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
65.9%
Jordon Brown run for 7 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
65.8%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 3
OPP 36
0
65.9%
Jordon Brown run for no gain to the Virg 36Similar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+6
66.3%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jake Bargas for 6 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
62.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 30 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:0364% → 70%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
63.8%
Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
63.7%
Bryce Perkins run for 2 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+29
63.9%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 29 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
64.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 9 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+27
69.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 27 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:4732% → 31%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
67.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 13Similar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+4
68.0%
Antonio Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+4
68.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Michael Carter for 4 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+5
68.6%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Carl Tucker for 5 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 26
+5
68.8%
Hunter Lent punt for 39 yds , Tavares Kelly returns for 5 yds to the Virg 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
69.6%
Bryce Perkins pass intercepted Myles Dorn return for no gain to the NCaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
68.2%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
68.4%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+2
69.0%
Nathan Elliott run for 2 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
69.2%
Hunter Lent punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 5:2370% → 72%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
70.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive offside (Malik Carney) to the Virg 48Similar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 5
OWN 48
+5
70.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 5 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
70.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 5 yds to the NCaro 42 Jordan Ellis fumbled, forced by D.J. Ford, recovered by Virg Jordan EllisSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+10
70.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 10 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
70.4%
Jordan Ellis run for 7 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+3
70.4%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
70.4%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-5
70.4%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Jalen Dalton for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 15
OPP 27
+7
69.2%
Bryce Perkins run for 7 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 7:32
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+37
72.2%
Brian Delaney 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:3128% → 39%
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
72.4%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete, broken up by Charles SnowdenSimilar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+13
72.6%
Michael Carter run for 13 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
71.9%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+9
72.0%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 9 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
71.3%
Antonio Williams run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 4
50
+28
70.7%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Beau Corrales for 28 yds to the Virg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
69.7%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 6 yds to the Virg 16Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+16
61.4%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Carl Tucker for 16 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.4%
Jordan Ellis run for no gain to the Virg 25Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the Virg 26Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
64.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise DuboisSimilar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
63.7%
Lester Coleman punt for 36 yds, downed at the NCaro 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5436% → 36%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
63.7%
Antonio Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+1
62.8%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jake Bargas for 1 yd to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
62.2%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
64.1%
Hunter Lent punt for 45 yds , Chuck Davis returns for no gain to the Virg 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11END OF HALF
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
64.4%
Bryce Perkins run for 6 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 4
OWN 18
-5
64.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 13Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+11
64.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tavares Kelly for 11 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-9
64.6%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Jeremiah Clarke for a loss of 9 yards to the Virg 15Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 19
OWN 15
+5
64.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 5 yds to the Virg 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.8%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
65.0%
Antonio Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
65.8%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams, broken up by Juan ThornhillSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+2
66.9%
Hunter Lent punt for 37 yds , Chuck Davis returns for 2 yds to the Virg 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:0068% → 79%
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+29
67.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 29 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
69.8%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
69.7%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Tavares KellySimilar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+33
78.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 33 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.1%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams, broken up by Bryce HallSimilar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
77.3%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Michael Carter for 14 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
76.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 4 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
75.7%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
76.4%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Carl Tucker, broken up by Charles SnowdenSimilar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
77.6%
Hunter Lent punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
78.5%
Bryce Perkins run for 2 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+4
78.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 4 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+26
78.1%
Bryce Perkins run for 26 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
80.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 5 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
80.3%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise Dubois, broken up by Myles DornSimilar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 5
OPP 35
-5
79.4%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Chris Collins for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 40Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
77.7%
Lester Coleman punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0021% → 19%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
79.5%
Dazz Newsome run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 13Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 11
OWN 13
0
79.7%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Antonio WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 11
OWN 13
0
80.6%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams, broken up by Matt GahmSimilar
Q3 7:50
4TH & 11
OWN 13
0
81.2%
Hunter Lent punt for 41 yds , Tavares Kelly returns for no gain to the Virg 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 38 yds · 1:4182% → 81%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
82.2%
Bryce Perkins run for 11 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
82.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tavares Kelly for 7 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+11
82.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 11 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
82.5%
Tavares Kelly run for 1 yd to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+1
82.5%
Bryce Perkins run for 1 yd to the NCaro 23Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+6
81.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 6 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q3 5:17
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+1
80.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the NCaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
81.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Jay-Jay McCargo) to the NCaro 11Similar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 15
OWN 11
+29
81.2%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Beau Corrales for 29 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
79.2%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-1
79.6%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 40Similar
Q3 3:04
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-6
80.4%
Nathan Elliott sacked by Chris Peace for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 35 Nathan Elliott fumbled, recovered by Virg Bryce Hall , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 1:1985% → 95%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
85.4%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+17
85.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 17 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
95.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Evan Butts for 16 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.6%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams, broken up by Bryce HallSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
93.6%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Rontavius Groves for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
93.7%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
93.9%
Hunter Lent punt for 37 yds , Tavares Kelly returns for no gain to the Virg 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
95.7%
PK Kier run for 3 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+3
95.7%
PK Kier run for 3 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+6
95.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
50
-1
95.8%
PK Kier run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 49Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
95.7%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Tavares KellySimilar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+8
95.6%
Bryce Perkins run for 8 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
95.1%
Lester Coleman punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22TD
9 plays · 92 yds · 2:534% → 16%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
95.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Jay-Jay McCargo) to the NCaro 4Similar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 14
OWN 4
0
95.9%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 14
OWN 4
+6
96.0%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+43
95.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Antonio Williams for 43 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+27
95.3%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Carl Tucker for 27 yds to the Virg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
94.4%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Beau Corrales for 1 yd to the Virg 19Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+8
94.4%
Michael Carter run for 8 yds to the Virg 11Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+10
94.9%
Michael Carter run for 10 yds to the Virg 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.6%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 3:2390% → 92%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.9%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 1 yd to the Virg 26Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
89.7%
Bryce Perkins run for 5 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
90.0%
Bryce Perkins run for 6 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
90.7%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+4
89.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 4 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
93.2%
Bryce Perkins run for no gain to the Virg 38Similar
Q4 4:30
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
92.3%
Lester Coleman punt for 41 yds, downed at the NCaro 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
93.6%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 8 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+8
92.3%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Antonio Williams for 8 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
92.6%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
92.6%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 5 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
92.3%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Thomas Jackson, broken up by Brenton NelsonSimilar
Q4 3:29
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
93.1%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:1596% → 97%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
95.5%
Jordan Ellis run for 9 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+11
95.6%
Jordan Ellis run for 11 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
96.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 6 yds to the NCaro 16Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 4
OPP 16
-4
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:53
Michael Carter run for 1 yd for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)
-11.3
TD · Q4 14:54
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Evan Butts for 16 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
+9.6
TD · Q3 13:11
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 33 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
+8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com