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WAKE

Wake Forest 56 at Louisville 35

LOU
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreWAKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFUMBLETDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:26 · Dom Maggio punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 44 , Rodjay Burns returns for 45 yds to the WFrst 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.0+26.50−26.5−53.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 56Home team on offense−8.3Score differential−3.8Garbage-time factor−1.3Pregame prior+5.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:34: Matt Colburn run for 74 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +11.0 pts (now 61%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. FUMBLE · Q2 9:20: Marcus Riley run for 1 yd Marcus Riley fumbled, forced by Cameron Glenn, recovered by WFrst Carlos Basham Jr. , return for 23 yds (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +9.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:49: Matt Colburn run for 56 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +12.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:40: Cade Carney run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +15.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:37: Trey Smith run for 2 yds for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +8.9 pts (now 12%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9WAKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 12:39LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    58.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:01LOU 4th & 5 at WAKE 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    58.4%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:16LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 31, down 7
    Close callPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00LOU 4th & 6 at WAKE 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    47.3%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    46.7%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:26WAKE 4th & 3 at WAKE 40, up 14
    Close callPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:20LOU 4th & 11 at WAKE 35, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.7%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    31.9%
    45% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:22WAKE 4th & 13 at WAKE 49, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−1.0
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:40LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 6, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−2.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:42WAKE 4th & 7 at LOU 30, up 21
    Close callWent for it · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    93.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    92.2%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:37WAKE 4th & 12 at WAKE 23, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00LOU 4th & 18 at WAKE 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:09WAKE 4th & 3 at LOU 42, up 21
    Close callPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:21LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 10, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:21LOU 4th & 8 at WAKE 37, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%
    40% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WAKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:39LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:01WAKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:16WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:29WAKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:50LOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 9:34WAKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:53LOU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 13:49WAKE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 9:50LOU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 6:40WAKE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 3:41WAKE Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q3 2:37LOU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2157% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.4%
Jawon Pass pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
57.4%
Hassan Hall run for 14 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
57.4%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 5 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-2
57.4%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+6
57.4%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 6 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q1 12:39
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+52
58.4%
Trey Smith run for 52 yds for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 1:3842% → 43%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
58.3%
Matt Colburn run for 2 yds to the WFrst 21Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+6
58.3%
Sam Hartman run for 6 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+3
58.3%
Sam Hartman run for 3 yds to the WFrst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
58.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 7 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+35
58.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 35 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
56.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 28 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 37 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
57.6%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 19 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
57.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 13 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
58.1%
Hassan Hall run for 1 yd to the WFrst 46Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+4
58.1%
Jawon Pass run for 4 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
58.0%
Jawon Pass pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:01
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
57.7%
Mason King punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:0743% → 47%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
57.5%
Cade Carney run for 2 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
57.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 7 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
57.5%
Cade Carney run for 4 yds to the WFrst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
57.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Cade CarneySimilar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
57.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Cade Carney for 7 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+32
57.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 32 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+16
56.6%
Cade Carney run for 16 yds to the Lvile 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
53.1%
Sam Hartman run for 12 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
54.3%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-8
54.3%
Jawon Pass sacked by Essang Bassey for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 16Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 16
OWN 16
+15
53.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Trey Smith for 15 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q1 6:16
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
54.1%
Mason King punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Greg Dortch at the WFrst 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 1:4747% → 54%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
52.8%
Matt Colburn run for 8 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+12
52.4%
Matt Colburn run for 12 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+20
52.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 20 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
52.1%
Matt Colburn run for 11 yds to the Lvile 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
52.1%
Sam Hartman run for 3 yds to the Lvile 9Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
52.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jack FreudenthalSimilar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+9
46.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 9 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7DOWNS
11 plays · 46 yds · 2:2948% → 47%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
47.8%
Jawon Pass run for no gain to the Lvile 21Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
47.8%
Jawon Pass pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+16
47.5%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 16 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
48.3%
Pass, Jaw. deep pass incomplete to Atwell, TuT., PENALTY WF pass interference (Bassey, E) 15 yards to the WF48, 1ST DOWN LOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
49.0%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Micky Crum for 5 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+6
49.0%
Trey Smith run for 6 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
49.0%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
49.0%
Trey Smith run for 1 yd to the WFrst 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+3
47.2%
Trey Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 33
0
46.9%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
44.2%
Cade Carney run for 4 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q2 14:26
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+3
44.0%
Sam Hartman run for 3 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q2 14:26
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
44.0%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:26
4TH & 3
OWN 40
+45
44.5%
Dom Maggio punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 44 , Rodjay Burns returns for 45 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9TD
10 plays · 44 yds · 3:3546% → 53%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
46.1%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Jaylen Smith, broken up by Essang BasseySimilar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-5
46.1%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Tutu Atwell) to the WFrst 49Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+20
45.6%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 20 yds to the WFrst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
46.5%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-1
46.5%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 30Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+13
46.0%
Jawon Pass run for 13 yds to the WFrst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
46.5%
Trey Smith run for 5 yds to the WFrst 12Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+1
46.5%
Trey Smith run for 1 yd to the WFrst 11Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+10
46.0%
Hassan Hall run for 10 yds to the WFrst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.5%
Trey Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10TD
2 plays · 74 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
39.0%
Matt Colburn run for 74 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
30.2%
Marcus Riley run for 1 yd Marcus Riley fumbled, forced by Cameron Glenn, recovered by WFrst Carlos Basham Jr. , return for 23 yds (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 0:0030% → 31%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
30.2%
Jawon Pass run for 5 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
30.8%
Trey Smith run for 8 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
31.3%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jordan Davis for 17 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
32.0%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Jordan DavisSimilar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+11
31.8%
Trey Smith run for 11 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
32.3%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Micky CrumSimilar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
32.2%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Tutu Atwell, broken up by Luke MastersonSimilar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 10
OPP 34
-1
31.7%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Trey Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 35Similar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 11
OPP 35
0
31.0%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
25.1%
Matt Colburn run for 5 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
24.5%
Matt Colburn run for 4 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+8
25.0%
Matt Colburn run for 8 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
24.2%
Matt Colburn run for 2 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
24.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Scotty WashingtonSimilar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-5
24.8%
Sam Hartman sacked by Amonte Caban for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 49Similar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
25.9%
TEAM punt, downed at the Lvile 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:5026% → 35%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
25.8%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Micky Crum for 9 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+7
26.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 7 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
26.9%
Jawon Pass run for 12 yds to the WFrst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
27.3%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 6 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 4
OPP 27
-5
27.5%
Jawon Pass sacked by Demetrius Kemp for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 35 Jawon Pass fumbled, recovered by Lvile Hassan Hall , return for 0 yards , return for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 35Similar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+16
26.4%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 16 yds to the WFrst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
35.1%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 19 yds for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
30.6%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+9
30.6%
Cade Carney run for 9 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1170% → 83%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
30.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, offside defense (Michael Boykin) to the WFrst 30Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+5
29.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 5 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
29.9%
Matt Colburn run for 2 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+7
29.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 7 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+56
16.8%
Matt Colburn run for 56 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 89 yds · 3:5920% → 30%
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
19.8%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the Lvile 13Similar
Q3 13:49
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+4
19.6%
Hassan Hall run for 4 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+6
19.7%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 6 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
19.9%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Tutu Atwell, broken up by Amari HendersonSimilar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+8
18.6%
Hassan Hall run for 8 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+3
19.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 3 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
19.0%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 13 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+30
20.4%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 30 yds to the WFrst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
21.6%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 11 yds to the WFrst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
30.4%
Hassan Hall run for 12 yds for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:1078% → 95%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
22.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 6 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
22.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 10 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
21.3%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+4
21.1%
Sam Hartman run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 1
50
+3
21.3%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
20.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Scotty WashingtonSimilar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+14
21.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Alex Bachman for 14 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
20.6%
Sam Hartman run for 1 yd to the Lvile 32Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+9
20.6%
Sam Hartman run for 9 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
20.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 10 yds to the Lvile 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
20.6%
Cade Carney run for 11 yds to the Lvile 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
20.4%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the Lvile 1Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.0%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
11.2%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 7
-1
11.2%
Trey Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 6Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 11
OWN 6
0
11.2%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Seth Dawkins, broken up by Amari HendersonSimilar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 11
OWN 6
0
11.2%
Mason King punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Greg Dortch at the Lvile 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:0196% → 98%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
4.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Alex Bachman for 8 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+7
4.3%
Matt Colburn run for 7 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
4.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Alex Bachman, broken up by Dorian EtheridgeSimilar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-1
4.3%
Matt Colburn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 34Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+4
4.4%
Sam Hartman run for 4 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q3 5:42
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+18
5.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 18 yds to the Lvile 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
1.9%
Matt Colburn run for 12 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 1:043% → 12%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+25
3.2%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 25 yds to the WFrst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
3.3%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 13 yds to the WFrst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
12.2%
Trey Smith run for 2 yds for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Greg DortchSimilar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
3.4%
Sam Hartman run for 3 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
3.3%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 23Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
3.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Greg Dortch, broken up by Jarrett JacksonSimilar
Q3 2:37
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
3.5%
Dom Maggio punt for 51 yds, downed at the Lvile 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 1:076% → 5%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
5.8%
Jawon Pass run for 3 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+13
5.8%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 13 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
6.0%
Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 37
-5
5.2%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 32
0
5.2%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Micky CrumSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 32
+29
5.1%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 29 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
5.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the WFrst 49Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 49
0
5.5%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 49
+2
5.5%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 2 yds to the WFrst 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 47
0
5.4%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Marcus Riley LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 18
OPP 47
0
5.4%
Mason King punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 44 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
2.4%
Matt Colburn run for 6 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+13
2.3%
Matt Colburn run for 13 yds to the WFrst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
2.3%
Matt Colburn run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 31Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+20
2.2%
Matt Colburn run for 20 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
2.1%
Matt Colburn run for 3 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+1
2.1%
Matt Colburn run for 1 yd to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+3
2.1%
Sam Hartman run for 3 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q4 13:09
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
2.4%
Dom Maggio punt for 41 yds, downed at the Lvile 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25DOWNS
17 plays · 62 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
2.5%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Jordan DavisSimilar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+9
2.4%
Trey Smith run for 9 yds to the Lvile 10Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 1
OWN 10
0
2.5%
Trey Smith run for no gain to the Lvile 10Similar
Q4 8:21
4TH & 1
OWN 10
+1
2.5%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd to the Lvile 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
2.6%
Jawon Pass pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+7
2.5%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Devante Peete for 7 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+13
2.6%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 13 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
2.6%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+8
2.6%
Jawon Pass run for 8 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+3
2.8%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 3 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
2.8%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
2.7%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Hassan Hall for 2 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+17
2.7%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 17 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
3.0%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 2 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
3.0%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Hassan HallSimilar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
2.9%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Devante PeeteSimilar
Q4 8:21
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
2.9%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Devante PeeteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
0.5%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+15
0.5%
Cade Carney run for 15 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
0.5%
Cade Carney run for 4 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-2
0.5%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 41Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 8
OPP 41
-2
0.5%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:40
Cade Carney run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
-15.3
TD · Q3 13:49
Matt Colburn run for 56 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
-12.8
TD · Q2 9:34
Matt Colburn run for 74 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
-11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com