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DUKE

Duke 45 at Pittsburgh 54

PITT
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG+2.6PITT 41.8%Alex Kessman 27 yd FG GOODAWAY 14 - HOME 10 · Q2 7:24
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:24 · Alex Kessman 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 61Home team on offense−1.6Pregame prior−6.7Score differential−0.7Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:22: Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds for a TD (Kenny Pickett pass to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for Two-Point Conversion) — PITT win probability +16.0 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q3 4:56: V'Lique Carter run for 31 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +20.0 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q3 3:57: Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 68 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK) — DUKE win probability +16.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:39: V'Lique Carter run for 16 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +27.1 pts (now 61%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:05: Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 25 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +33.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:04DUKE 4th & 3 at PITT 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    54.0%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:12PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:43DUKE 4th & 7 at PITT 24, tied
    Close callWent for it · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    54.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    53.1%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:16PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:24PITT 4th & 9 at DUKE 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−6.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 0:31PITT 4th & 13 at DUKE 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−0.9
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.4%
    42% to make
    Punt
    21.9%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q4 15:00DUKE 4th & 11 at DUKE 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−3.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%
    average punt
  8. Q4 8:07DUKE 4th & 6 at PITT 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    26.2%−22.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:33PITT 4th & 30 at DUKE 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−11.6
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    22.1%−13.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:25DUKE 4th & 18 at DUKE 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−11.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:04PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:12DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:41DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:38DUKE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:07PITT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:41DUKE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:22PITT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    39.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:45DUKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:56PITT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 3:57DUKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 10:39PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:05PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:5639% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
39.4%
Qadree Ollison run for 5 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+9
39.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 9 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
39.4%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+7
39.4%
Kenny Pickett run for 7 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
39.4%
V'Lique Carter run for 11 yds to the Duke 33 V'Lique Carter fumbled, forced by Leonard Johnson, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
40.9%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
40.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+30
42.4%
Kenny Pickett run for 30 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2TD
12 plays · 62 yds · 3:5258% → 60%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
41.8%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+16
41.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Noah Gray for 16 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
41.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Noah Gray for 6 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-2
41.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 42Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+3
41.7%
Daniel Jones run for 3 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q1 11:04
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+6
41.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 6 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
41.4%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
41.4%
Deon Jackson run for 8 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+6
41.6%
Deon Jackson run for 6 yds to the Pitt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
41.4%
Daniel Jones run for 13 yds to the Pitt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
40.4%
Quentin Harris run for 6 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
41.8%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
41.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
41.5%
Kenny Pickett run for no gain to the Pitt 29Similar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
41.1%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 38 yds, downed at the Duke 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 43 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
41.8%
Daniel Jones run for 1 yd to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+10
41.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Noah Gray for 10 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
41.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 5 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+10
41.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Noah Gray for 10 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
41.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 14 yds to the Pitt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
40.6%
Daniel Jones run for 3 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
40.6%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
41.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q1 5:43
4TH & 7
OPP 24
0
41.7%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
43.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-1
42.9%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 23Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+6
42.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 6 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q1 3:16
4TH & 5
OWN 29
+43
42.1%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 28 yds, downed at the PITTSBURGH 43 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Chris Rumph II) to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 4:5458% → 65%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+20
42.5%
Daniel Jones run for 20 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
41.4%
Daniel Jones run for no gain to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+16
41.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 16 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
41.2%
Deon Jackson run for 7 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+1
40.8%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Pitt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+4
41.4%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
40.8%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
41.0%
Daniel Jones run for no gain to the Pitt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+19
41.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 19 yds to the Pitt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
40.8%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the Pitt 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
40.8%
Quentin Harris run for no gain to the Pitt 3Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
35.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 3 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7FG
9 plays · 77 yds · 4:1737% → 42%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
36.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 5 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+9
37.0%
Maurice Ffrench run for 9 yds to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
37.4%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+62
37.4%
V'Lique Carter run for 62 yds to the Duke 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
40.1%
Darrin Hall run for no gain to the Duke 7Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
40.1%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 9Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
39.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q2 7:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
41.8%
Alex Kessman 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:4661% → 70%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+60
39.3%
Deon Jackson run for 60 yds to the Pitt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
36.6%
Brittain Brown run for 10 yds to the Pitt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
36.6%
Brittain Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 4Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
36.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Noah GraySimilar
Q2 5:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
29.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 4 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9TD
4 plays · 81 yds · 1:3130% → 44%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
30.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 13 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
30.8%
Qadree Ollison run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
50
+50
43.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 50 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10FUMBLE
16 plays · 65 yds · 3:1160% → 64%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
39.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
40.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Deon Jackson for 7 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+5
39.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 5 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
38.9%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+11
39.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 11 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
37.8%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+18
38.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Jake Bobo for 18 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
37.4%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 40Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+16
36.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 16 yds to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
35.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Deon Jackson for 8 yds to the Pitt 16Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+5
35.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 5 yds to the Pitt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
35.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
35.6%
Daniel Jones sacked by Dennis Briggs for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 20 Daniel Jones fumbled, recovered by Pitt Dewayne Hendrix , return for 0 yards , return for 5 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:1142% → 39%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
42.0%
Kenny Pickett run for 5 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-10
39.5%
Qadree Ollison run for 5 yds to the Pitt 30 PITTSBURGH Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the Pitt 15Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+9
38.8%
Qadree Ollison run for 9 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:1960% → 72%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
39.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
39.3%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+74
28.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Deon Jackson for 74 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1928% → 48%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
28.1%
Maurice Ffrench run for 28 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
30.4%
Maurice Ffrench run for 11 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
30.5%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
31.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Qadree OllisonSimilar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+24
30.3%
Kenny Pickett run for 24 yds to the Duke 10 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, OG ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
31.7%
Darrin Hall run for 6 yds to the Duke 4Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
47.7%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds for a TD (Kenny Pickett pass to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:3759% → 75%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
40.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 11 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
39.2%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 6
50
+21
38.7%
Deon Jackson run for 21 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+27
37.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 27 yds to the Pitt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
37.3%
Quentin Harris run for 1 yd to the Pitt 1Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
25.4%
Quentin Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4927% → 49%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.5%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
26.7%
V'Lique Carter run for 11 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
27.7%
DUKE Penalty, offside defense (Axel Nyembwe) to the Pitt 43Similar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 5
OWN 43
+2
28.5%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+24
28.5%
Qadree Ollison run for 24 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
48.5%
V'Lique Carter run for 31 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 0:5961% → 78%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
39.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 6 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
38.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Deon JacksonSimilar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+6
38.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Noah Gray for 6 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
22.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 68 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 3:2622% → 26%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
22.4%
Qadree Ollison run for 7 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
23.5%
Maurice Ffrench run for 5 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
23.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Rafael Araujo-LopesSimilar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
23.1%
Maurice Ffrench run for 6 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+6
23.7%
Pickett, K. pass incomplete to Butler-Jenkins (Hill, B), PENALTY DU pass interference (Hill, B) 6 yards to the UP49, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
25.0%
Darrin Hall run for 18 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
26.9%
Maurice Ffrench run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 36Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 13
OPP 36
0
24.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 13
OPP 36
0
24.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice Ffrench, broken up by Brandon FeamsterSimilar
Q3 0:31
4TH & 13
OPP 36
+54
26.1%
Alex Kessman 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:2874% → 72%
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
26.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Oluwaseun IdowuSimilar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-1
26.9%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 22
0
27.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Jazzee StockerSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 22
+1
28.2%
Austin Parker punt for 38 yds , Rafael Araujo-Lopes returns for 1 yd to the Pitt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 4:1030% → 61%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
30.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+13
28.7%
Qadree Ollison run for 13 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
32.0%
V'Lique Carter run for 2 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+6
31.8%
Darrin Hall run for 6 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+3
31.5%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
33.7%
Pickett, K. pass incomplete to Araujo-Lopes, R, PENALTY UP holding (Bookser, A.) 10 yards to the DU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+25
29.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 25 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
33.7%
Darrin Hall run for 4 yds to the Duke 16Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+16
60.8%
V'Lique Carter run for 16 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20FG
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:3252% → 71%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
48.5%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+50
46.8%
Deon Jackson run for 50 yds to the Pitt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
40.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 11 yds to the Pitt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
40.3%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Pitt 7Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
40.3%
Quentin Harris run for 1 yd to the Pitt 6Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
42.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan Lloyd, broken up by Phillipie MotleySimilar
Q4 8:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+25
28.6%
Collin Wareham 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21FG
12 plays · 26 yds · 5:3441% → 52%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
40.7%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+15
41.3%
Qadree Ollison run for 15 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
42.5%
Darrin Hall run for 1 yd to the Duke 37Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+13
42.3%
Maurice Ffrench run for 13 yds to the Duke 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
44.7%
Darrin Hall run for 7 yds to the Duke 17Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+9
44.7%
Darrin Hall run for 9 yds to the Duke 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
44.7%
Hall, D. rush for 8 yards to the DU0, PENALTY UP holding (Herndon, M.) 10 yards to the DU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
+4
44.5%
V'Lique Carter run for 4 yds to the Duke 14Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
-16
43.4%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 15 PITTSBURGH Penalty, personal foul (Maurice Ffrench) to the Duke 30Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 30
0
38.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 30
+48
52.3%
Alex Kessman 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:0853% → 49%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
46.7%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+16
45.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 16 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
41.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
42.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Oluwaseun IdowuSimilar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 10
OWN 49
-8
44.8%
Daniel Jones sacked by Amir Watts for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 41 DUKE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 1:25
4TH & 18
OWN 41
0
50.7%
Austin Parker punt for 41 yds, downed at the Pitt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 1:0955% → 97%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+24
55.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Darrin Hall for 24 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
59.8%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Ben Frye for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 41Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+17
55.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 17 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
60.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Tre Tipton for 6 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+11
60.8%
Kenny Pickett run for 11 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
63.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
96.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 25 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:05
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 25 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)
+33.1
TD · Q4 10:39
V'Lique Carter run for 16 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)
+27.1
TD · Q3 4:56
V'Lique Carter run for 31 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)
+20
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com