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MIA

Miami 14 at Boston College 27

BC
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2018 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:29 · Colton Lichtenberg 44 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 168Home team on offense+26.0Pregame prior−1.3Score differential+12.4Garbage-time factor+13.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+3.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:50: Anthony Brown 5 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick) — BC win probability +4.7 pts (now 46%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:34: DeeJay Dallas 10 Yd Run (Bubba Baxa Kick) — MIA win probability +8.4 pts (now 56%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 9:48: AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 10 — BC win probability +6.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 7:48: Colton Lichtenberg 23 Yd Field Goal — BC win probability +4.3 pts (now 64%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:26: AJ Dillon 14 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick) — BC win probability +19.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:25MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:08MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:08BC 4th & 5 at MIA 21, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    53.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−3.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:32BC 4th & 1 at MIA 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    53.5%−1.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    50.4%−4.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:04BC 4th & 4 at MIA 4, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.0%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    51.3%−5.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:29BC 4th & 8 at BC 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:56BC 4th & 8 at BC 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:48BC 4th & 5 at MIA 5, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−9.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:02MIA 4th & 11 at MIA 46, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−1.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:44MIA 4th & 3 at BC 3, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    12.4%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−8.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:11BC 4th & 7 at MIA 35, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    93.8%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    93.2%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:29BC 4th & 11 at MIA 27, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−3.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:55MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 40, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.8%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:14BC 4th & 13 at MIA 49, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:50MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 31, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.7%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:57BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:03MIA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:50BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:34MIA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:26BC Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2065% → 64%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
35.2%
Travis Homer run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+7
35.3%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 7 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
35.5%
Travis Homer run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
35.7%
Travis Homer run for no gain to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+4
35.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 4 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q1 12:25
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
36.1%
Zach Feagles punt for 44 yds, downed at the BC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 3:1336% → 40%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+25
36.3%
AJ Dillon run for 25 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
36.5%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 35Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+14
36.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 14 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
37.0%
Kobay White run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 48Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+11
37.0%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Korab Idrizi for 11 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
37.4%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+7
37.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 7 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+27
37.9%
Jeff Smith pass complete to Anthony Brown for 27 yds to the MiaFl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
38.2%
Michael Walker run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
38.4%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+9
40.2%
Jeff Smith 9 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3TD
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:3761% → 63%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
39.2%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Travis Homer for 17 yds to the BC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
39.1%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+11
39.4%
Malik Rosier run for 11 yds to the BC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
39.6%
DeeJay Dallas run for 8 yds to the BC 8Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 2
OPP 8
0
39.9%
Malik Rosier run for no gain to the BC 8Similar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 2
OPP 8
-5
40.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Brevin Jordan) to the BC 13Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+13
37.5%
Darrell Langham 13 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Bubba Baxa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 2:5139% → 46%
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
38.7%
AJ Dillon run for 7 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+4
39.2%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
39.0%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Chris Garrison for 14 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
40.0%
Jeff Smith run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 8
50
+31
40.2%
Jeff Smith pass complete to Travis Levy for 31 yds to the MiaFl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
40.7%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Korab IdriziSimilar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+9
40.7%
AJ Dillon run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+5
40.5%
David Bailey run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
41.2%
David Bailey run for no gain to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
45.8%
Anthony Brown 5 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2557% → 55%
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
43.5%
DeeJay Dallas pass incomplete to DJ IveySimilar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
43.7%
DeeJay Dallas run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+6
44.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Travis Homer for 6 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q1 1:08
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
44.7%
Zach Feagles punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6FG
22 plays · 79 yds · 6:5145% → 52%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
45.3%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the BC 17Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+16
45.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Hunter Long for 16 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+23
46.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jake Burt for 23 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
47.7%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Tommy SweeneySimilar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-5
47.7%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 39 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+14
47.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to AJ Dillon for 14 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
48.1%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
49.2%
Michael Walker run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
49.2%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
48.7%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:08
4TH & 5
OPP 21
-8
47.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 7 yds to the MiaFl 21 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
49.2%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+3
49.4%
Anthony Brown run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
49.8%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
49.3%
Anthony Brown run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
51.2%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+20
51.5%
AJ Dillon run for 20 yds to the MiaFl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
52.3%
David Bailey run for no gain to the MiaFl 3Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
52.6%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
52.3%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kobay WhiteSimilar
Q2 9:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
52.1%
Colton Lichtenberg 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:2148% → 56%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
51.9%
Travis Homer run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+9
51.7%
Travis Homer run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
50
+8
51.7%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 8 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+2
51.4%
Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
52.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 12 yds to the BC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
51.3%
Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+10
51.7%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 10 yds to the BC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
52.0%
Malik Rosier run for 5 yds to the BC 11Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+1
52.5%
DeeJay Dallas run for 1 yd to the BC 10Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+10
44.0%
DeeJay Dallas 10 Yd Run (Bubba Baxa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 1:5048% → 48%
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
48.2%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the BC 29Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+8
47.8%
AJ Dillon run for 8 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+4
49.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to AJ Dillon for 4 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
50.4%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Korab IdriziSimilar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
49.5%
David Bailey run for 7 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 3
OWN 48
-5
50.0%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the BC 43Similar
Q2 2:39
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
48.8%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:29
4TH & 8
OWN 43
-3
47.6%
Grant Carlson punt for 48 yds , Jeff Thomas returns for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 40 MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Block (3 Yards) to the MiaFl 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0451% → 50%
Q2 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+2
48.7%
Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 8
OWN 5
0
49.9%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to DJ IveySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10PUNT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:1153% → 52%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
52.9%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
52.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 6 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
52.0%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kobay WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11END OF HALF
13 plays · 31 yds · 1:3851% → 53%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
48.7%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+8
49.2%
Travis Homer run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+2
48.9%
Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.6%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Brevin JordanSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
48.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 2 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+17
50.8%
Malik Rosier run for 17 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
46.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
47.6%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Darrell LanghamSimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+14
48.5%
Malik Rosier run for 14 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
45.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
45.8%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 10
OPP 42
-12
46.7%
Malik Rosier sacked by Max Richardson for a loss of 12 yards to the MiaFl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:5451% → 52%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
50.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Ray Marten for 1 yd to the BC 26Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+20
51.9%
AJ Dillon run for 20 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
54.7%
Jeff Smith run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 5
OPP 49
-10
55.5%
Anthony Brown sacked by Jonathan Garvin and Pat Bethel for a loss of 10 yards to the BC 41Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+7
51.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 7 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 8
OWN 48
+46
51.8%
Grant Carlson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jeff Thomas at the BOSTCOLL 12 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (6 Yards) to the MiaFl 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13INT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:5748% → 48%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
51.8%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-3 Yards) to the MiaFl 3Similar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 13
OWN 3
+2
51.9%
Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 11
OWN 5
0
52.5%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 11
OWN 5
+17
53.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Darrell Langham for 17 yds to the MiaFl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
52.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 4 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+7
51.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 7 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
51.4%
Travis Homer run for no gain to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+23
52.4%
Malik Rosier pass intercepted Hamp Cheevers return for 23 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14FG
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:0059% → 64%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
59.3%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+5
59.5%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+1
58.5%
Anthony Brown run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
60.1%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
60.4%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
59.2%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kobay WhiteSimilar
Q3 7:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
63.5%
Colton Lichtenberg 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15INT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1739% → 37%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
60.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Delay of Game (-1 Yards) to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 11
OWN 2
+8
61.0%
DeeJay Dallas run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 3
OWN 10
0
60.9%
Malik Rosier run for no gain to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+6
62.8%
Malik Rosier pass intercepted Taj-Amir Torres return for 6 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16TD
1 play · 14 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
82.4%
AJ Dillon 14 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 2:5822% → 15%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
78.4%
Malik Rosier run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
77.6%
Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
80.9%
Malik Rosier run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
81.5%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-6
82.0%
Malik Rosier sacked by Zach Allen for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 16
OWN 41
+5
84.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Travis Homer for 5 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q3 3:02
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
84.9%
Zach Feagles punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Michael Walker at the BC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:3187% → 87%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
87.0%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+2
87.2%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
86.9%
Anthony Brown pass intercepted Romeo Finley return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 47 yds · 4:1617% → 11%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
83.5%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 6 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+1
84.1%
DeeJay Dallas run for 1 yd to the BC 43Similar
Q3 1:02
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+21
85.8%
Malik Rosier run for 21 yds to the BC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
84.5%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 8 yds to the BC 14Similar
Q3 0:03
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+5
85.2%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the BC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
85.3%
Malik Rosier run for 6 yds to the BC 3Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
85.9%
DeeJay Dallas run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 4Similar
Q4 13:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
87.2%
DeeJay Dallas run for 1 yd to the BC 3Similar
Q4 12:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
89.2%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Darrell LanghamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20MISSED FG
14 plays · 70 yds · 6:5393% → 96%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
92.8%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the BC 6Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+4
92.9%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the BC 10Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+4
92.6%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the BC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
93.4%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the BC 19Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+43
93.6%
Anthony Brown run for 43 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
94.8%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
95.0%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+4
95.0%
Anthony Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 35 Anthony Brown fumbled, recovered by BC Travis Levy run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+9
95.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 9 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
95.8%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 20
OPP 36
-1
95.8%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 21
OPP 37
+10
96.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jeff Smith for 10 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 11
OPP 27
0
96.6%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q4 5:29
4TH & 11
OPP 27
+44
96.2%
Colton Lichtenberg 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:345% → 4%
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
95.4%
Malik Rosier sacked by Connor Strachan for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 40 Malik Rosier fumbled, recovered by MiaFl , return for 14 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
95.0%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
95.1%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
95.4%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+6
95.8%
Malik Rosier run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:3697% → 98%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
97.0%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-1
97.7%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 8
OPP 37
-10
97.6%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 11
OPP 47
-2
97.7%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q4 3:14
4TH & 13
OPP 49
0
98.0%
Grant Carlson punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:153% → 3%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
97.2%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 3 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 7
OWN 21
-10
97.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 16
OWN 11
+18
97.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Travis Homer for 18 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
97.2%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
97.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 2 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
97.5%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
97.5%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 24Uncategorized
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:5899% → 99%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 12
OPP 33
-2
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 14
OPP 35
-2
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:26
AJ Dillon 14 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)
+19.6
TD · Q2 4:34
DeeJay Dallas 10 Yd Run (Bubba Baxa Kick)
-8.4
KEY PLAY · Q3 9:48
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 10
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com