2018 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2018 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreGT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:11 · James Graham run for 11 yds to the VTech 23 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:15: Tobias Oliver 1 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick) — GT win probability +6.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:57: Jordan Mason 5 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick) — GT win probability +11.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:27: Tobias Oliver 5 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick) — GT win probability +11.2 pts (now 60%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:14: Tobias Oliver 11 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick) — GT win probability +14.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:02: Jordan Mason 14 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick) — GT win probability +11.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 3:41GT 4th & 1 at GT 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt36.3%−0.3average punt
- Q2 7:15GT 4th & 15 at GT 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snapGo for it30.7%−1.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.1%average punt
- Q2 5:35VT 4th & 2 at VT 34, tiedClose callPunted · 58.6% before the snapGo for it59.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.5%−0.6average punt
- Q2 0:46VT 4th & 12 at VT 40, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snapGo for it41.4%−1.623% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.0%average punt
- Q3 7:44VT 4th & 6 at VT 29, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snapGo for it23.7%−0.639% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.3%average punt
- Q3 0:17VT 4th & 14 at VT 28, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snapGo for it4.5%−1.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.1%average punt
- Q4 11:29GT 4th & 13 at GT 36, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snapGo for it96.7%−0.620% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.3%average punt
- Q4 10:03VT 4th & 3 at VT 28, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 4:27VT 4th & 1 at GT 31, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%71% to convertField goal0.2%−<0.154% to makePunt0.2%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4GT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 13:26VT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.1%97% to makeGo for two60.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:56GT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.0%97% to makeGo for two40.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:52VT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.4%97% to makeGo for two62.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:15GT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.8%97% to makeGo for two39.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:30VT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.0%97% to makeGo for two64.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:57GT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.8%97% to makeGo for two38.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:27GT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.8%97% to makeGo for two53.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:14GT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.5%97% to makeGo for two70.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:02GT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.3%97% to makeGo for two94.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:23GT Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:48VT Touchdown, down 22 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call1.1%−0.197% to makeGo for two1.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartVTDrive 1TD6 plays · 73 yds · 1:2160% → 61%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2TD14 plays · 75 yds · 6:1940% → 42%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
60.5%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Andrew Marshall) to the GTech 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3TD4 plays · 70 yds · 0:5060% → 64%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
59.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 5 yds to the VTech 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:3037% → 43%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+21
62.6%
Tobias Oliver run for 9 yds to the VTech 24 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Dax Hollifield) to the VTech 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5TD13 plays · 73 yds · 4:3261% → 69%
Q2 14:52
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+9
61.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 9 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-5
62.0%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Christian Darrisaw) to the VTech 41Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+28
61.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Peoples for 13 yds to the VATECH 46 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Charlie Thomas) to the GTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+6
63.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 6 yds to the GTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6FUMBLE10 plays · 24 yds · 3:0833% → 31%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
66.7%
Tobias Oliver run for 3 yds to the GTech 28 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Ricky Walker) to the GTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 9
OPP 45
-6
66.4%
Tobias Oliver run for a loss of 6 yards to the GTech 49 Tobias Oliver fumbled, recovered by GTech Jerry HowardSimilar
Q2 7:24
4TH & 15
OWN 49
+5
69.3%
Harvin III, Pressley punt 41 yards to the VATECH10, Savoy, Sean return 21 yards to the VATECH31, PENALTY VATECH running into kicker (Conner, Chamarri) 5 yards to the VATECH46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:24
4TH & 10
OPP 46
-5
69.0%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Christian Campbell) to the GTech 49Similar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 15
OWN 49
+3
69.4%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 42 yds , Sean Savoy returns for 3 yds to the VTech 12 Sean Savoy fumbled, recovered by GTech Jalen JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7TD2 plays · 12 yds · 0:1335% → 46%
VTDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0561% → 60%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
61.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 5 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+1
60.6%
Ryan Willis run for 1 yd to the VTech 34 Ryan Willis fumbled, recovered by VTech Ryan WillisSimilar
Q2 5:35
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
59.8%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Juanyeh Thomas at the GTech 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9TD10 plays · 72 yds · 4:0243% → 60%
Q2 4:25
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+19
55.1%
Nathan Cottrell run for 4 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Bryce Watts) to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 10 yds · 0:2647% → 45%
GTDrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · 13 yds · 0:2056% → 57%
GTDrive 12TD11 plays · 75 yds · 5:4058% → 79%
Q3 11:42
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-9
38.1%
Jerry Howard run for 6 yds to the GTech 49 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (Qua Searcy) to the GTech 34Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+28
39.8%
Tobias Oliver run for 13 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Khalil Ladler) to the VTech 38 for a 1ST down. Khalil Lander ejected for Targeting.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2125% → 23%
Q3 7:44
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
23.1%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Juanyeh Thomas at the GTech 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14TD8 plays · 64 yds · 4:3379% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 8 yds · 2:307% → 5%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
6.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 6 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q3 1:27
3RD & 5
OWN 37
-15
6.1%
Willis, Ryan pass complete to Kumah, Eric for 15 yards to the GATECH48, PENALTY VATECH pass interference (Kumah, Eric) 15 yards to the VATECH22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:11
3RD & 20
OWN 22
-5
5.7%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Zachariah Hoyt) to the VTech 17Similar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 25
OWN 17
+11
5.6%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 11 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q3 0:17
4TH & 14
OWN 28
0
5.4%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Brad Stewart at the GTech 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 3:4396% → 97%
VTDrive 17DOWNS4 plays · 7 yds · 1:223% → 3%
GTDrive 18TD6 plays · 28 yds · 3:3098% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19TD12 plays · 65 yds · 2:270% → 3%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
0.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 14 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+5
0.2%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (Kelton Dawson) to the GTech 31Similar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+10
0.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 10 yds to the GTech 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER8 plays · 52 yds · 3:2999% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:14
Tobias Oliver 11 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick)
-14.6
TD · Q3 3:02
Jordan Mason 14 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick)
-11.4
TD · Q2 6:57
Jordan Mason 5 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick)
-11.2