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WAKE

Wake Forest 17 at Florida State 38

FSU
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreWAKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:58 · Sam Hartman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 15 yds to the FlaSt 11 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 202Pregame prior+3.5Home team on offense+35.0Score differential+30.3Garbage-time factor+10.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.0Blowout margin+16.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:00: Sam Hartman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 9 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +2.2 pts (now 25%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:24: Cam Akers run for 3 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q2 9:50: Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +3.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:01: Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 33 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +7.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 14:30: Cam Akers run for 58 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +5.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10WAKE made the numbers' call on 11 of 15
  1. Q1 11:54WAKE 4th & 6 at FSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:50FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:30WAKE 4th & 15 at WAKE 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:20FSU 4th & 8 at FSU 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:03WAKE 4th & 1 at FSU 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    25.9%−0.3
    60% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:09FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 34, down 10
    Close callPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:19WAKE 4th & 8 at FSU 30, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    32.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:50WAKE 4th & 16 at WAKE 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:55WAKE 4th & 2 at WAKE 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:37FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:40WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 45, down 4
    Close callPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:01FSU 4th & 3 at WAKE 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    73.0%−0.7
    49% to make
    Punt
    72.2%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:38WAKE 4th & 9 at WAKE 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:51WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 46, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.3%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 11:19FSU 4th & 8 at WAKE 32, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q3 10:39WAKE 4th & 23 at WAKE 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:28FSU 4th & 5 at WAKE 21, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−1.8
    average punt
  18. Q3 4:25WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  19. Q3 3:07FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 42, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  20. Q3 0:54WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  21. Q4 13:43FSU 4th & 7 at WAKE 47, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  22. Q4 11:56WAKE 4th & 16 at WAKE 14, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  23. Q4 5:58WAKE 4th & 3 at FSU 26, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  24. Q4 2:15FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 24, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  25. Q4 0:29WAKE 4th & 8 at FSU 29, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WAKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:00WAKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:24FSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:50FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:01FSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:30FSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:43FSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:36WAKE Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WAKEDrive 1FG
16 plays · 61 yds · 3:0319% → 20%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete, broken up by Demarcus ChristmasSimilar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
81.4%
Matt Colburn run for 12 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
81.4%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
81.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Matt Colburn for 8 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+10
81.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 10 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
81.0%
Matt Colburn run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+7
80.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 7 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+4
80.8%
Matt Colburn run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
80.7%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
80.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Alex Bachman for 5 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+9
80.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 9 yds to the FlaSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
80.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Sage SurrattSimilar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+4
80.4%
Matt Colburn run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
80.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Alex BachmanSimilar
Q1 11:54
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+32
80.4%
Nick Sciba 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5580% → 80%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
80.4%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
80.3%
Jacques Patrick run for no gain to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
79.9%
Deondre Francois run for no gain to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q1 10:50
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
79.9%
Logan Tyler punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Alex Bachman at the WFrst 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:4820% → 20%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
79.9%
Matt Colburn run for 2 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+14
79.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Brandon Chapman for 14 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
79.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Alex BachmanSimilar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+11
79.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 11 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
79.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Sage SurrattSimilar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-5
79.4%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 48Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 15
OWN 48
0
79.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Brandon Chapman, broken up by Dontavious JacksonSimilar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 15
OWN 48
0
79.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Sage SurrattSimilar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 15
OWN 48
0
79.8%
Dom Maggio punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4779% → 79%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
79.4%
Jacques Patrick run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 5
OWN 22
-3
79.2%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
78.9%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:20
4TH & 8
OWN 19
+32
78.7%
Logan Tyler punt for 49 yds , Alex Bachman returns for 32 yds to the FLORIDAST 49 WAKE FOREST Penalty, illegal block (15 Yards) to the WFrst 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5TD
9 plays · 51 yds · 1:5321% → 25%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
78.6%
Cade Carney run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
78.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Scotty Washington, broken up by A.J. LyttonSimilar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
78.3%
Cade Carney run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+7
78.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 7 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q1 7:03
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+3
78.4%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
77.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 3 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+10
77.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 10 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
77.5%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
75.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 9 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:4276% → 75%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
76.0%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+9
75.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 9 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+2
75.5%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
75.4%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
75.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Cam Akers for 7 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
74.9%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:09
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
74.7%
Logan Tyler punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 1:2526% → 27%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
74.3%
Matt Colburn run for 3 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+6
74.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Matt Colburn for 6 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+6
73.7%
Matt Colburn run for 6 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
73.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Brandon ChapmanSimilar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+27
73.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Matt Colburn for 27 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
72.6%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
72.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Matt ColburnSimilar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
72.4%
Matt Colburn run for no gain to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 2:19
4TH & 8
OPP 30
-10
72.8%
Sam Hartman sacked by Brian Burns for a loss of 10 yards to the FlaSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:1172% → 77%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
72.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+9
71.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Gabe Nabers for 9 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+10
72.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for 10 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+23
72.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 23 yds to the WFrst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+17
72.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 17 yds to the WFrst 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
77.2%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 1:2825% → 25%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Scotty WashingtonSimilar
Q1 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
75.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Alex Bachman for 17 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
74.0%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the WFrst 47Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+6
73.8%
Sam Hartman run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-6
73.4%
Sam Hartman sacked by Emmett Rice for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 47Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 16
OWN 47
0
74.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Sage SurrattSimilar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 16
OWN 47
0
74.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jack Freudenthal, broken up by Asante Samuel Jr. WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 13:50
4TH & 16
OWN 47
0
75.0%
Dom Maggio punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10FUMBLE
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:2775% → 74%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
74.5%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
74.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+20
73.3%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Demetrius Kemp) to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
75.0%
Cam Akers rush over left end for 3 yards to the WF49 (Justin Strnad), PENALTY FS illegal formation 5 yards to the FS43, NO PLAY, clock 12:34.Similar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 15
OWN 43
0
73.6%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+49
73.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for 49 yds Keith Gavin fumbled, forced by Justin Strnad, recovered by WFrst Demetrius KempSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:2827% → 27%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
72.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Brandon ChapmanSimilar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
72.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for no gain to the WFrst 20Similar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+11
73.4%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted Stanford Samuels III return for 11 yds to the WFrst 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12TD
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:5375% → 78%
Q2 10:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
75.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the WFrst 6Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
75.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the WFrst 2Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
78.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:3624% → 24%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 6 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
75.5%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
75.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Scotty WashingtonSimilar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+8
76.4%
Dom Maggio punt for 48 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 8 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4977% → 76%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
76.9%
Keyshawn Helton run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+2
77.2%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
76.7%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan Murray, broken up by Ja'Sir Taylor FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:37
4TH & 6
OWN 31
+7
76.0%
Logan Tyler punt for 52 yds , Alex Bachman returns for 7 yds to the WFrst 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:3324% → 25%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
76.1%
Matt Colburn run for 7 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+2
75.0%
Matt Colburn run for 2 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+3
75.2%
Matt Colburn run for 3 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
75.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Greg Dortch, broken up by Jaiden WoodbeySimilar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
75.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Matt Colburn for 1 yd to the WFrst 37Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+8
75.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Brandon Chapman for 8 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q2 5:40
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
74.7%
Dom Maggio punt for 28 yds, downed at the FlaSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 2:5577% → 85%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
76.7%
Deondre Francois deep pass incomplete to Tamorrion Terry (Essang Bassey), PENALTY WF pass interference (Essang Bassey) 15 yards to the FS42, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY, clock 04:56.Similar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
77.9%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-10
78.1%
Deondre Francois deep pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 54 yards to the WF0, clock 04:19, PENALTY FS holding (Jauan Williams) 10 yards to the FS36, NO PLAY, clock 04:19.Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 16
OWN 36
+8
76.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 8 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+16
76.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 16 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
78.3%
Deondre Francois run for 1 yd to the WFrst 39Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+3
78.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 3 yds to the WFrst 36Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+3
77.5%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q2 2:01
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+33
84.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 33 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17PUNT
12 plays · 23 yds · 0:5415% → 15%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.3%
Cade Carney run for 7 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
84.7%
Cade Carney run for 4 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
84.9%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
85.2%
Cade Carney run for 4 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+7
84.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 7 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
83.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Scotty WashingtonSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
84.2%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+1
84.6%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the WFrst 48Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 9
OWN 48
+4
85.3%
Dom Maggio punt for 46 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 4 yds to the FlaSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
86.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 11 yds to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
86.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 7 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1985% → 91%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
85.0%
Cam Akers run for 17 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
90.6%
Cam Akers run for 58 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:259% → 10%
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
90.6%
Matt Colburn run for 9 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
89.8%
Matt Colburn run for 3 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
90.2%
Sam Hartman sacked by Joshua Kaindoh for a loss of 10 yards to the WFrst 27Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 20
OWN 27
+3
91.0%
Sam Hartman run for 3 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+16
91.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 16 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
90.4%
Matt Colburn run for no gain to the WFrst 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21FG
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:1394% → 96%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
93.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 12 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
93.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tre' McKitty, broken up by Chuck Wade Jr.Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
93.9%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
93.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+49
95.9%
Ricky Aguayo 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-15
96.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Arthur Williams) to the FlaSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:355% → 4%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
50
0
95.0%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete, broken up by Jaiden WoodbeySimilar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 10
50
0
95.2%
Cade Carney run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 10
50
-13
95.3%
Sam Hartman sacked by Brian Burns for a loss of 13 yards to the WFrst 37Similar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 23
OWN 37
0
95.7%
Dom Maggio punt for 45 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23MISSED FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 4:1896% → 97%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
96.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 2 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+28
96.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 28 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
96.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 15 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
96.6%
Jacques Patrick run for 7 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 3
OPP 30
-10
96.7%
Jacques Patrick rush left for 9 yards to the WF21 (Luke Masterson), PENALTY FS holding (Brady Scott) 10 yards to the WF40, NO PLAY, clock 08:04.Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 13
OPP 40
-4
96.9%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 44Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 17
OPP 44
+18
96.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 18 yds to the WFrst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
97.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 5 yds to the WFrst 21Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 5
OPP 21
0
97.1%
Jacques Patrick run for no gain to the WFrst 21Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 5
OPP 21
0
97.1%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q3 5:28
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+38
96.9%
Ricky Aguayo 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:433% → 3%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
96.6%
Christian Beal-Smith run for no gain to the WFrst 21Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
97.0%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Sage SurrattSimilar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+4
97.2%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 4 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 6
OWN 25
+3
97.2%
Dom Maggio punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 39 , D.J. Matthews returns for 3 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3598% → 98%
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
97.6%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 12
OWN 37
0
97.5%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+5
97.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Cam Akers for 5 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
97.5%
Logan Tyler punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Alex Bachman at the WFrst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:353% → 2%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
97.5%
Jamie Newman run for 7 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 3
OWN 22
-3
97.3%
Jamie Newman run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 19 Jamie Newman fumbled,Similar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+7
97.5%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 7 yds to the WFrst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
97.8%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Jack FreudenthalSimilar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-6
97.9%
Jamie Newman run for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 20Similar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 16
OWN 20
+10
98.1%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Alex Bachman for 10 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q3 0:54
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
98.0%
Dom Maggio punt for 47 yds, downed at the FlaSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 1:1898% → 99%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
98.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Cam Akers for 16 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.5%
D.J. Matthews pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q4 14:28
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
98.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Naseir Upshur for 9 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
98.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Naseir Upshur for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
50
0
98.7%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Keyshawn HeltonSimilar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 10
50
-2
98.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+5
98.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 5 yds to the FLORIDAST 47 FLORIDA ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 13:43
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
98.6%
Logan Tyler punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:541% → 1%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.7%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Christian Beal-SmithSimilar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
98.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 15Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 15
OWN 15
-1
98.8%
Jamie Newman sacked by Joshua Kaindoh for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 14Similar
Q4 11:56
4TH & 16
OWN 14
+27
98.8%
Dom Maggio punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 34 , D.J. Matthews returns for 27 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 29TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:4199% → 100%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
98.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 10 yds to the WFrst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
99.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 1 yd to the WFrst 23Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+2
99.0%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the WFrst 21Similar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+21
99.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 21 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 30TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:480% → 1%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Matt Colburn run for 2 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+28
99.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 28 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
99.9%
Matt Colburn run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+6
99.9%
Matt Colburn run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+4
99.9%
Sam Hartman run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
99.9%
Matt Colburn run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+3
99.9%
Matt Colburn run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+15
99.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 15 yds to the FlaSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
99.9%
Matt Colburn run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+5
99.9%
Sam Hartman sideline pass incomplete to Jaquarii Roberson, PENALTY FS personal foul (Joshua Kaindoh) 5 yards to the FS5, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY, clock 05:04.Similar
Q4 4:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
99.9%
Matt Colburn run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 9 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 31PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:06100% → 100%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.5%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-10
99.5%
Cam Akers rush left for 8 yards to the FS32, out-of-bounds, PENALTY FS illegal block (James Blackman) 10 yards to the FS14, NO PLAY, clock 03:51.Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+5
99.6%
Amir Rasul run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+5
99.6%
Amir Rasul run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
99.6%
Logan Tyler punt for 36 yds, downed at the WFrst 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 32DOWNS
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:121% → 1%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+29
99.4%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 29 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.3%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Jaquarii Roberson, broken up by Xavier PetersSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
99.3%
DeAndre' Delaney run for no gain to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+2
99.4%
DeAndre' Delaney run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q4 0:29
4TH & 8
OPP 29
0
99.4%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Waydale JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:01
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 33 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
+7.6
TD · Q3 14:30
Cam Akers run for 58 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
+5.6
TD · Q1 0:24
Cam Akers run for 3 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
+4.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com