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UVA

Virginia 28 at Duke 14

DUKE
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-7.7DUKE 20.2%Brian Delaney 42 yd FG GOODAWAY 20 - HOME 7 · Q3 1:32
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:32 · Brian Delaney 42 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Home team on offense−25.9Pregame prior+5.6Score differential−12.2Garbage-time factor−7.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:58: Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 46 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK) — DUKE win probability +12.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 6:45: Brian Delaney 37 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +7.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:46: T.J. Rahming pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 22 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK) — DUKE win probability +20.7 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:09: PK Kier run for 1 yd to the Duke 27 — UVA win probability +14.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:58: Bryce Perkins pass complete to Evan Butts for 16 yds for a TD (Bryce Perkins pass to Olamide Zaccheaus for Two-Point Conversion) — UVA win probability +14.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:14DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:26UVA 4th & 3 at DUKE 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    35.2%−0.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:26UVA 4th & 3 at DUKE 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    35.3%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    34.3%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:34DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:28DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:15UVA 4th & 1 at DUKE 16, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.3%−2.6
    81% to make
    Punt
    42.0%−10.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:34UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−1.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:58DUKE 4th & 20 at DUKE 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−1.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:45UVA 4th & 3 at DUKE 20, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.8%−0.8
    75% to make
    Punt
    52.4%−9.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:45DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:32UVA 4th & 11 at DUKE 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−10.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00UVA 4th & 13 at UVA 15, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−4.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:46UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 41, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:35DUKE 4th & 24 at DUKE 9, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−4.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:58DUKE 4th & 8 at UVA 49, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:11UVA 4th & 2 at DUKE 43, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:05DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.5%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 2UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:21UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:09UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:58DUKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:46DUKE Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.1%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:58UVA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    93.9%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    94.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1TD
9 plays · 61 yds · 3:3930% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
70.1%
Olamide Zaccheaus pass complete to Bryce Perkins for 9 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
70.1%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for no gain to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+6
70.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 6 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
70.1%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+14
70.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 14 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
70.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+7
70.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tanner Cowley for 7 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+23
68.0%
Bryce Perkins run for 23 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
68.3%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 21Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+3
68.3%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+6
68.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 6 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
68.3%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+4
68.3%
Quentin Harris run for 4 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
68.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+43
68.1%
Austin Parker punt for 55 yds , Tavares Kelly returns for 43 yds to the Duke 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3DOWNS
12 plays · 16 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
66.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+3
66.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 3 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+7
66.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 7 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+6
66.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 6 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
66.1%
Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+5
66.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 5 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+2
66.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-8
66.1%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Terrell Lucas for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 18
OPP 44
0
66.3%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise DuboisSimilar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 18
OPP 44
+15
66.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 15 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 3
OPP 29
0
66.5%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Tavares Kelly, broken up by Brandon FeamsterSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-15
66.0%
VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Duke 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
63.4%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
63.3%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
62.8%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:34
4TH & 10
OWN 29
+27
62.5%
Austin Parker punt for 36 yds , Chuck Davis returns for 27 yds to the Duke 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5TD
5 plays · 38 yds · 2:2739% → 46%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
61.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 5 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+27
61.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 27 yds to the Duke 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
61.0%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
59.9%
Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the Duke 3Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
53.7%
Bryce Perkins run for 3 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:4156% → 55%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
55.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 3 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
55.1%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+22
54.8%
Austin Parker punt for 37 yds, downed at the DUKE 33 DUKE Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Virg 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:5947% → 50%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
52.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 11 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
52.7%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
52.8%
Perkins, B pass incomplete to Obasi, U (Feamster, B), PENALTY DU offside (McSwain, T) 5 yards to the DU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 5
OPP 36
-1
52.7%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+12
52.9%
Perkins, B pass incomplete to Dubois, H (Feamster, B), PENALTY DU pass interference (Feamster, B) 12 yards to the DU25, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
52.7%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
52.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 6 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+3
52.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Duke 16Similar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+33
49.8%
Brian Delaney 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8INT
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:4151% → 49%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
50.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
50.6%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+18
50.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Noah Gray for 18 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
52.2%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 9
OWN 44
-2
52.1%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+17
51.4%
Daniel Jones run for 17 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
49.2%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted Joe Reed return for no gain to the Virg 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q2 7:34
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
47.1%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus, broken up by Leonard JohnsonSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
46.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the Virg 21Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
46.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 7 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 2
OWN 28
-5
47.5%
VIRGINIA Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
47.7%
Lester Coleman punt for 38 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for no gain to the Duke 23 DUKE Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Duke 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 15 yds · 3:4946% → 41%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
45.5%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+6
45.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 6 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 5:47
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+7
45.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 7 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
47.0%
Daniel Jones run for 3 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+3
47.1%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q2 5:47
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+6
47.0%
Daniel Jones run for 6 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
47.4%
Daniel Jones run for no gain to the Virg 46Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
47.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 6 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q2 5:47
3RD & 4
OPP 40
-10
47.3%
Daniel Jones run for no gain to the Duke 40 DUKE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 5:47
3RD & 14
50
-6
45.8%
Daniel Jones sacked by Chris Peace for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 20
OWN 44
0
41.1%
Austin Parker punt for 32 yds, downed at the Virg 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11MISSED FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 1:5060% → 69%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
40.5%
Jordan Ellis run for 9 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+10
40.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 10 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+10
39.4%
Jordan Ellis run for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
39.1%
Bryce Perkins run for 2 yds to the Virg 45 VIRGINIA Penalty, illegal forward pass (Bryce Perkins) to the Virg 40Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 3
50
+13
34.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 13 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
34.3%
Bryce Perkins run for 3 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
34.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+51
31.2%
Brian Delaney 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0237% → 52%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
37.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 22 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
39.7%
Daniel Jones run for 7 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 46
0
39.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+46
52.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 46 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 7:0753% → 64%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
47.4%
PK Kier run for 13 yds to the Virg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
46.8%
PK Kier run for 4 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+8
46.2%
Chris Sharp run for 8 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
45.1%
PK Kier run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 37Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+7
46.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 7 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+18
45.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Jamari Peacock for 18 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
44.2%
Bryce Perkins run for 11 yds to the Duke 27 VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Joe Reed) to the Duke 37Similar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 9
OPP 37
+4
44.2%
Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+6
43.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 6 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
43.8%
Bryce Perkins run for 1 yd to the Duke 26Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+3
43.9%
PK Kier run for 3 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+3
44.5%
PK Kier run for 3 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+37
36.5%
Brian Delaney 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
36.1%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 29 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (Bryce Hall) to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
38.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
37.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 2 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
36.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan Lloyd, broken up by Bryce HallSimilar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 8
OWN 46
+20
35.4%
Austin Parker punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Chuck Davis at the DUKE 19 DUKE Penalty, personal foul (Javon Jackson) to the Virg 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15FG
14 plays · 41 yds · 4:1866% → 80%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
34.0%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+11
34.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 11 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
32.8%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+11
33.0%
Bryce Perkins run for 11 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
32.5%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 7 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+3
32.3%
Bryce Perkins run for 3 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
31.8%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise Dubois, broken up by Michael Carter IISimilar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
31.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 6 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+4
32.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Evan Butts for 4 yds to the Duke 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
31.6%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Dylan Singleton and Drew Jordan for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 11
OPP 25
0
27.1%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise DuboisSimilar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 11
OPP 25
0
27.8%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:32
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+42
20.2%
Brian Delaney 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:0025% → 27%
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
25.3%
Daniel Jones run for 12 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
26.1%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
26.7%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted Bryce Hall return for no gain to the Virg 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:3281% → 81%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
18.8%
Bryce Perkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 16
-2
18.6%
Bryce Perkins run for 3 yds to the Virg 19 VIRGINIA Penalty, illegal forward pass (Bryce Perkins) to the Virg 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 14
+1
19.1%
PK Kier run for 1 yd to the Virg 15Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 15
+6
19.4%
Lester Coleman punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 41 , T.J. Rahming returns for 6 yds to the Duke 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:5823% → 47%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
22.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 6 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 4
OWN 47
-1
23.5%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 46Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+6
22.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 6 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
23.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris Taylor, broken up by Bryce HallSimilar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
23.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 4 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+9
23.7%
Daniel Jones run for 9 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
26.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Deon Jackson for 13 yds to the Virg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
47.0%
T.J. Rahming pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 22 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
30.0%
Lamont Atkins run for 12 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
28.6%
PK Kier run for 2 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+2
27.5%
PK Kier run for 2 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
27.9%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe Reed, broken up by Leonard JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:46
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
30.2%
Lester Coleman punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 12 , T.J. Rahming returns for no gain to the Duke 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0036% → 32%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+11
36.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 11 yds to the Duke 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
36.5%
Daniel Jones sacked by Chris Peace for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 21Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 12
OWN 21
-2
35.8%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 19Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 14
OWN 19
-10
34.2%
Daniel Jones sacked by Charles Snowden and Chris Peace for a loss of 10 yards to the Duke 9Similar
Q4 8:35
4TH & 24
OWN 9
+29
32.4%
Austin Parker punt for 48 yds , Tavares Kelly returns for 29 yds to the Duke 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21TD
4 plays · 28 yds · 2:1183% → 97%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
17.5%
PK Kier run for 1 yd to the Duke 27Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+4
17.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 4 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+7
18.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 7 yds to the Duke 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
3.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Evan Butts for 16 yds for a TD (Bryce Perkins pass to Olamide Zaccheaus for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
4.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 14 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
4.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris Taylor, broken up by Bryce HallSimilar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
4.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 6 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+4
4.3%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-7
4.4%
Daniel Jones sacked by Eli Hanback for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 17
OWN 42
+8
4.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 9
50
+1
4.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 1 yd to the Virg 49Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
4.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Damond Philyaw-Johnson, broken up by Darrius BrattonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:1798% → 98%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
1.8%
PK Kier run for 3 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+1
1.6%
PK Kier run for 1 yd to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+4
1.5%
PK Kier run for 4 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
1.6%
Lester Coleman punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24END OF GAME
9 plays · 59 yds · 0:001% → 2%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
1.2%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+18
1.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 18 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
1.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
1.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Damond Philyaw-JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+6
1.2%
Daniel Jones run for 6 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+13
1.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Noah Gray for 13 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+22
1.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Jake Bobo for 22 yds to the Virg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
1.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
1.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Zane ZandierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:46
T.J. Rahming pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 22 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)
+20.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 6:09
PK Kier run for 1 yd to the Duke 27
-14.9
TD · Q4 3:58
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Evan Butts for 16 yds for a TD (Bryce Perkins pass to Olamide Zaccheaus for Two-Point Conversion)
-14.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com