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VT

Virginia Tech 22 at North Carolina 19

UNC
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2018 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of GameTD-74.5UNC 7.8%Ryan Willis pass complete to DaltonKeene for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Willispass to Damon Hazelton for Two-PointConversion)AWAY 22 - HOME 19 · Q4 0:19
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:19 · Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Willis pass to Damon Hazelton for Two-Point Conversion)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 188Pregame prior−0.1Home team on offense−30.8Garbage-time factor−13.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.8Score differential−3.7Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:49: Freeman Jones 22 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +6.0 pts (now 50%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:02: Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 3 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +14.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:17: Ryan Willis pass complete to Sean Savoy for 13 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +13.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 9:59: Freeman Jones 35 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +11.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:19: Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Willis pass to Damon Hazelton for Two-Point Conversion) — VT win probability +74.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 8 of 9VT made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 9:47UNC 4th & 12 at VT 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    34.0%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:46UNC 4th & 4 at VT 45, down 4
    Close callPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    36.4%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:34VT 4th & 13 at VT 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:11UNC 4th & 13 at VT 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    34.0%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00VT 4th & 5 at VT 37, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:49UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:40VT 4th & 23 at VT 20, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−1.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:51UNC 4th & 12 at VT 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−3.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:51VT 4th & 14 at VT 22, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:26UNC 4th & 1 at VT 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    40.5%−2.0
    64% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−6.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:40VT 4th & 11 at VT 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−1.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:49UNC 4th & 5 at VT 5, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−6.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:54VT 4th & 1 at VT 30, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%−3.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:07UNC 4th & 8 at VT 15, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−1.7
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−11.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:59UNC 4th & 5 at VT 18, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−17.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:53VT 4th & 10 at UNC 48, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:38VT 4th & 9 at UNC 40, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    12.3%−3.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−6.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 13:05VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:02UNC Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:17VT Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:19VT Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 2.2 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    72.5%−2.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
33.9%
Antonio Williams run for 9 yds to the NCaro 45 Antonio Williams fumbled, forced by Emmanuel Belmar, recovered by VTech Khalil Ladler , return for a loss of 10 yards to the NCaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:4566% → 66%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
34.0%
Steven Peoples run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 11
OPP 46
-5
34.0%
Willis, R sideline pass complete to Hazelton, D for 12 yards to the NC34 (Holcomb, C), PENALTY VT illegal motion (Savoy, S) 5 yards to the VT49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 16
OWN 49
+12
34.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Sean Savoy for 12 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q1 14:50
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+6
34.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 6 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
33.9%
Ryan Willis run for 33 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:1834% → 35%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.1%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
34.1%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Dyami Brown for 7 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
34.1%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, offside defense (Emmanuel Belmar) to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+49
34.2%
Michael Carter run for 49 yds to the VTech 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
34.4%
Cade Fortin run for 2 yds to the VTech 12Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 8
OPP 12
-6
34.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the VTech 18 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NCaro Antonio WilliamsSimilar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 14
OPP 18
+2
34.2%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 2 yds to the VTech 16Similar
Q1 9:47
4TH & 12
OPP 16
+33
35.2%
Freeman Jones 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4INT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
35.3%
Deshawn McClease run for 2 yds to the VTech 13Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
35.4%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+21
35.6%
Ryan Willis run for 21 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
35.2%
Deshawn McClease run for 5 yds to the VTech 39Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+2
35.0%
Deshawn McClease run for 2 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
35.0%
Ryan Willis pass intercepted Patrice Rene return for no gain to the NCaro 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
36.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 15
OWN 44
-5
35.9%
Cade Fortin sacked by Dylan Rivers for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 39Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 20
OWN 39
+8
35.8%
Antonio Williams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+8
35.7%
Cade Fortin run for 8 yds to the VTech 45Similar
Q1 7:46
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
36.0%
Hunter Lent punt for 35 yds , Damon Hazelton returns for no gain to the VTech 10 Damon Hazelton fumbled, recovered by VTech Damon HazeltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
36.2%
Steven Peoples run for 6 yds to the VTech 16Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+6
36.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Sean Savoy for 6 yds to the VTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
36.1%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 17Similar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 15
OWN 17
0
36.2%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+2
36.2%
Steven Peoples run for 2 yds to the VTech 19Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 13
OWN 19
0
36.6%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:34
4TH & 13
OWN 19
+21
36.9%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 47 , Dazz Newsome returns for 21 yds to the VTech 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:3438% → 38%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
37.7%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 48Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 11
OPP 48
0
37.6%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+40
36.7%
Cade Fortin run for 40 yds to the VTech 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-8
38.2%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the VTech 6 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the VTech 16Similar
Q1 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
+2
38.1%
Antonio Williams run for 2 yds to the VTech 14Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+1
37.9%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the VTech 13Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
37.4%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Michael CarterSimilar
Q1 1:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
38.1%
Freeman Jones 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:1162% → 61%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
37.9%
Ryan Willis run for 6 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
37.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 4 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
37.6%
Ryan Willis run for 2 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
37.5%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+3
38.0%
Ryan Willis run for 3 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
38.6%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 48 yds, downed at the NCaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
38.7%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+8
38.6%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Michael Carter for 8 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+4
38.4%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 4 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
38.9%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
38.7%
Antonio Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
38.2%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
37.8%
Hunter Lent punt for 38 yds, downed at the VTech 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 0:0062% → 60%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
38.3%
Deshawn McClease run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 30Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 13
OWN 30
0
38.8%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 13
OWN 30
-10
39.5%
Ryan Willis sacked by Jason Strowbridge for a loss of 10 yards to the VTech 20Similar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 23
OWN 20
+25
40.1%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 48 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for 25 yds to the VTech 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11MISSED FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2642% → 41%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
42.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 48Similar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+6
41.1%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+18
42.2%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 18 yds to the VTech 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-8
43.0%
Cade Fortin sacked by Emmanuel Belmar for a loss of 8 yards to the VTech 32Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 18
OPP 32
+6
41.6%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Antonio Williams for 6 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 12
OPP 26
0
41.5%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Michael CarterSimilar
Q2 8:51
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+43
40.5%
Freeman Jones 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-6
39.4%
Ryan Willis sacked by Malik Carney for a loss of 6 yards to the VTech 20Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 16
OWN 20
-4
39.8%
Sean Savoy run for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 16Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 20
OWN 16
+6
40.6%
Steven Peoples run for 6 yds to the VTech 22Similar
Q2 8:51
4TH & 14
OWN 22
0
41.2%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 44 yds, downed at the NCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 40 yds · 0:3441% → 42%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
40.9%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 20 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
43.4%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 11 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
44.3%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 36Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 11
OPP 36
0
43.2%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+10
42.3%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 10 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 1
OPP 26
0
42.0%
Antonio Williams run for no gain to the VTech 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0062% → 60%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
38.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Peoples for 9 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
37.8%
Steven Peoples run for 1 yd to the VTech 36Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
37.8%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-2
38.9%
Ryan Willis sacked by Jason Strowbridge for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 34Similar
Q2 5:40
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
40.3%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 33 yds, downed at the NCaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15FG
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:0841% → 50%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
41.4%
Jordon Brown run for 4 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+2
43.0%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+11
42.5%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Michael Carter for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
50
+43
44.2%
Dazz Newsome pass complete to Carl Tucker for 43 yds to the VTech 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
45.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 12Similar
Q2 3:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
0
45.4%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the VTech 12Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
45.3%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams, broken up by Caleb FarleySimilar
Q2 3:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+7
43.8%
Cade Fortin run for 7 yds to the VTech 5Similar
Q2 0:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
49.8%
Freeman Jones 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16END OF HALF
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0053% → 54%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
47.3%
Steven Peoples run for 5 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
46.5%
Steven Peoples run for 9 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
45.4%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
45.9%
Steven Peoples run for 4 yds to the VTech 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
48.7%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-5
49.0%
Steven Peoples run for a loss of 5 yards to the VTech 16Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 15
OWN 16
+14
50.4%
Ryan Willis run for 14 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+5
50.1%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 43 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for 5 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:3051% → 68%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+49
51.1%
Michael Carter run for 49 yds to the VTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
54.8%
Michael Carter run for 8 yds to the VTech 11Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 2
OPP 11
0
54.8%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Jordon BrownSimilar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+8
53.5%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for 8 yds to the VTech 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
68.3%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 3 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4536% → 54%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
64.1%
Jalen Holston run for 2 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
63.8%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+33
65.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 33 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
61.2%
Quincy Patterson II run for 7 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+2
59.5%
Jalen Holston run for 2 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+4
60.9%
Quincy Patterson II run for 4 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
59.5%
Steven Peoples run for no gain to the NCaro 27Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+3
60.0%
Deshawn McClease run for 3 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+7
61.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 7 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
59.5%
Deshawn McClease run for 4 yds to the NCaro 13Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+13
46.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Sean Savoy for 13 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20MISSED FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:1054% → 56%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
53.5%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Antonio Williams for 6 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
55.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 5 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
54.7%
Elliott, N deep pass incomplete to Corrales, B, PENALTY VT pass interference (Watts, B) 15 yards to the VT49, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
57.4%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the VTech 46Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+29
57.5%
Michael Carter run for 29 yds to the VTech 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
58.6%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+2
58.6%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the VTech 15Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
57.1%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q3 4:07
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+32
56.1%
Freeman Jones 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21INT
7 plays · 54 yds · 0:0047% → 53%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
53.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Peoples for 6 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
52.5%
Steven Peoples run for 5 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
52.7%
Steven Peoples run for 4 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+28
51.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre Turner for 28 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
49.0%
Deshawn McClease run for 1 yd to the NCaro 36Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+10
49.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre Turner for 10 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+17
47.1%
Ryan Willis pass intercepted J.K. Britt return for 17 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22FG
13 plays · 62 yds · 5:2857% → 73%
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
57.2%
Antonio Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+9
57.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 9 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
58.0%
Antonio Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+2
58.3%
Nathan Elliott run for 2 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+5
57.6%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
60.3%
Nathan Elliott run for no gain to the NCaro 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+12
58.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 12 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
62.2%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Antonio Williams for 9 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+15
62.3%
Elliott, N sideline pass incomplete to Corrales, B, PENALTY VT pass interference (Watts, B) 15 yards to the VT23, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
63.5%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
63.4%
Anthony Ratliff-Williams pass incomplete to Nathan ElliottSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+5
61.4%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dyami Brown for 5 yds to the VTech 18Similar
Q4 9:59
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+35
73.0%
Freeman Jones 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+18
63.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Sean Savoy for 18 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
58.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Steven Peoples, broken up by Jonathan SmithSimilar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
59.2%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
61.6%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton, broken up by Patrice ReneSimilar
Q4 9:53
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
64.6%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24FUMBLE
10 plays · 86 yds · 0:0073% → 78%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
72.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Anthony Ratliff-Williams) to the NCaro 7Similar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 15
OWN 7
-3
72.2%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (William Sweet) to the NCaro 4Similar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 18
OWN 4
-2
72.2%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Jay-Jay McCargo) to the NCaro 2Similar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 20
OWN 2
+2
72.2%
Nathan Elliott run for 2 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 18
OWN 4
+3
71.9%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 7Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 15
OWN 7
+80
70.3%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Carl Tucker for 80 yds to the VTech 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
77.7%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the VTech 9Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+7
77.7%
Michael Carter run for 7 yds to the VTech 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
77.8%
Carter, M rush right for loss of 4 yards to the VT6 (Ladler, K), PENALTY VT offside defense (Ladler, K) 1 yards to the VT1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
77.8%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the VTech 2 Michael Carter fumbled, forced by Tyree Rodgers, recovered by VTech Jovonn QuillenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 25TD
22 plays · 98 yds · 5:5428% → 92%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
72.4%
Steven Peoples run for 4 yds to the VTech 6Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 6
OWN 6
-3
72.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, false start (-3 Yards) to the VTech 3Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+29
72.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 29 yds to the VTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
69.9%
Ryan Willis run for 4 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+4
68.9%
Ryan Willis run for 4 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+4
67.4%
Ryan Willis run for 4 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-4
67.3%
Ryan Willis sacked by Malik Carney for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 40Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 14
OWN 40
0
71.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton, broken up by Patrice ReneSimilar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 14
OWN 40
+19
72.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Peoples for 19 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
65.0%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete, broken up by J.K. BrittSimilar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
65.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Sean Savoy for 5 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 5
OPP 36
-4
65.6%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Peoples for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 9
OPP 40
+12
82.2%
Ryan Willis run for 12 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
73.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 8 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+4
73.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Sean Savoy for 4 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
73.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 7 yds to the NCaro 9Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+1
79.1%
Steven Peoples run for 1 yd to the NCaro 8Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+7
82.3%
Ryan Willis run for 7 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Willis pass to Damon Hazelton for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26Uncategorized
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0019% → 21%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
19.2%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 12 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
20.5%
Nathan Elliott sacked by Houshun Gaines for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:19
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Willis pass to Damon Hazelton for Two-Point Conversion)
-74.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-16.5
TD · Q3 12:02
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 3 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)
+14.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com