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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreMIA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:24 · Zach Feagles punt for 48 yds , Chuck Davis returns for 1 yd to the Virg 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:16: Jordan Ellis run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +5.1 pts (now 46%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 3:11: Bubba Baxa 28 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +3.2 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Brian Delaney 46 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +5.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:04: Malik Rosier run for 11 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK) — MIA win probability +36.1 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 3:04: Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 25 — UVA win probability +23.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 10:05MIA 4th & 2 at UVA 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call64.7%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt64.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:16UVA 4th & 13 at UVA 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snapGo for it36.1%−0.320% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.4%average punt
- Q1 4:52MIA 4th & 14 at MIA 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snapGo for it61.6%−0.718% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.2%average punt
- Q2 13:46UVA 4th & 5 at MIA 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.9% before the snapGo for it40.7%−0.136% to convertField goalTheir call40.8%89% to makePunt38.3%−2.5average punt
- Q2 10:13MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 25, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snapGo for it46.8%−1.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.0%average punt
- Q2 7:15MIA 4th & 17 at UVA 29, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.6% before the snapGo for it42.9%−1.714% to convertField goalTheir call44.7%58% to makePunt40.4%−4.3average punt
- Q2 5:33UVA 4th & 4 at UVA 39, up 7Close callPunted · 53.2% before the snapGo for it53.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.7%−0.3average punt
- Q2 3:11MIA 4th & 5 at UVA 10, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.6% before the snapGo for it45.5%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call45.6%88% to makePunt39.0%−6.5average punt
- Q3 8:59MIA 4th & 1 at UVA 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.6%71% to convertField goal36.5%−3.168% to makePunt27.2%−12.4average punt
- Q3 6:44UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 25, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snapGo for it65.9%−2.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.1%average punt
- Q3 4:24MIA 4th & 13 at MIA 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snapGo for it29.8%−3.920% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.7%average punt
- Q4 10:49UVA 4th & 15 at MIA 15, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.9% before the snapGo for it76.8%−4.215% to convertField goalTheir call81.0%83% to makePunt68.6%−12.5average punt
- Q4 7:42UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 48, up 10Close callPunted · 88.0% before the snapGo for it88.1%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.0%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MIA made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q2 11:16UVA Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.4%97% to makeGo for two51.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:04MIA Touchdown, down 4 before the tryNumbers favored go for two by 2.1 ptsKicked · madeKickTheir call17.5%−2.197% to makeGo for two19.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUVADrive 1INT7 plays · 32 yds · 2:5325% → 27%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
25.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 9 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
26.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Evan Butts for 9 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
26.9%
Bryce Perkins pass intercepted Trajan Bandy return for 13 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3074% → 73%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
26.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 4 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 2:3628% → 28%
Q1 9:48
2ND & 3
OPP 45
-5
28.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 8
50
-10
28.7%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Michael Pinckney for a loss of 10 yards to the Virg 40Similar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 13
OWN 45
0
28.4%
Lester Coleman punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 2:1572% → 70%
Q1 4:52
4TH & 14
OWN 34
+8
30.5%
Zach Feagles punt for 39 yds , Tavares Kelly returns for 8 yds to the Virg 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5INT4 plays · 22 yds · 2:0531% → 32%
Q1 3:47
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+24
31.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 24 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
32.6%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Michael Pinckney and Jonathan Garvin for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+14
32.2%
Bryce Perkins pass intercepted Sheldrick Redwine return for 14 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1770% → 70%
UVADrive 7FG8 plays · 43 yds · 3:2633% → 36%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
33.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 11 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
33.6%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise Dubois for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Targeting on Michael Jackson Sr. (15 Yards) to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST down. (Jackson ejected).Similar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
34.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 6 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8INT6 plays · 25 yds · 2:1965% → 65%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
35.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 11 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
35.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 5 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
50
+62
35.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass intercepted Juan Thornhill return for 62 yds to the MiaFl 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9TD3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0339% → 46%
MIADrive 10PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 1:0354% → 52%
UVADrive 11INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
45.8%
Bryce Perkins pass intercepted Trajan Bandy return for no gain to the MiaFl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12FG6 plays · 23 yds · 2:2554% → 53%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
46.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Brevin Jordan for no gain to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+30
47.5%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 30 yds to the Virg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
3RD & 8
OPP 20
-9
48.1%
Malik Rosier sacked by Mandy Alonso and Zane Zandier for a loss of 9 yards to the Virg 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1449% → 49%
Q2 5:33
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
48.8%
Lester Coleman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jeff Thomas at the MiaFl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14FG6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1750% → 54%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15END OF HALF12 plays · 46 yds · 3:0246% → 58%
MIADrive 16DOWNS15 plays · 51 yds · 5:5448% → 44%
Q3 12:05
3RD & 17
OWN 41
+26
55.7%
Malik Rosier pass complete to DeeJay Dallas for 11 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 2:0662% → 63%
Q3 8:15
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+1
63.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Chris Sharp for 1 yd to the Virg 31Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 3
OWN 31
-6
63.6%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Jonathan Garvin for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 6:44
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
62.5%
Lester Coleman punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jeff Thomas at the MiaFl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 2:1241% → 35%
UVADrive 19FG16 plays · 73 yds · 8:2967% → 82%
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
73.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 4 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
77.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 8 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
79.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 11 yds to the MiaFl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
82.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 2 yds to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-7
83.2%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Shaquille Quarterman for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20INT5 plays · 44 yds · 1:4116% → 18%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+24
83.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Travis Homer for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
50
+21
81.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Travis Homer for 21 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+24
81.8%
Malik Rosier pass intercepted Juan Thornhill return for 24 yds to the Virg 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0587% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22TD11 plays · 93 yds · 4:2812% → 46%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+11
87.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Trayone Gray for 11 yds to the MiaFl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
88.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Trayone Gray for 5 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+12
89.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 12 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
88.5%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Travis Homer for 5 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-7
87.8%
Malik Rosier sacked by Chris Peace for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+17
90.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+22
90.5%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 22 yds to the Virg 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER15 plays · 15 yds · 2:3484% → 96%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:04
Malik Rosier run for 11 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)
-36.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:04
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 25
+23.9
FG · Q2 0:00
Brian Delaney 46 yd FG GOOD
+5.5