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DUKE

Duke 28 at Georgia Tech 14

GT
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2018 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:01 · Austin Parker punt for 51 yds , Brad Stewart returns for 8 yds to the GTech 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Home team on offense−4.0Score differential−1.3Garbage-time factor−1.2Pregame prior+5.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:54: TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Malachi Carter for 32 yds for a TD (Wesley Wells KICK) — GT win probability +13.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 5:00: Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 11 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST down — DUKE win probability +10.8 pts (now 49%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:49: Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 48 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK) — DUKE win probability +20.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:15: Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK) — DUKE win probability +14.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:00: Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 6 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK) — DUKE win probability +11.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:25GT 4th & 9 at GT 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:15DUKE 4th & 1 at GT 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    44.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:33GT 4th & 2 at DUKE 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    54.7%−0.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:06GT 4th & 1 at DUKE 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    50.1%−1.6
    77% to make
    Punt
    45.2%−6.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:01DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:22GT 4th & 12 at GT 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−1.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:39DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−0.6
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:04GT 4th & 11 at GT 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:02DUKE 4th & 13 at DUKE 33, tied
    Numbers favored punt by 3.3 ptsWent for it · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.5%−3.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:53GT 4th & 6 at DUKE 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:29DUKE 4th & 13 at DUKE 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−2.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00GT 4th & 1 at GT 46, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.5%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:18GT 4th & 17 at DUKE 25, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:31DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:54GT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:49DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:15DUKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:00DUKE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:51GT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:1743% → 43%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
57.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 11 yds to the GTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
57.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 10 yds to the GTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+19
57.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 19 yds to the GTech 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
56.6%
Deon Jackson run for 12 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
56.7%
TaQuon Marshall sacked by Chris Rumph II for a loss of 9 yards to the GTech 10Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 19
OWN 10
+4
56.7%
Nathan Cottrell run for 4 yds to the GTech 14Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 15
OWN 14
+6
56.6%
TaQuon Marshall run for 6 yds to the GTech 20Similar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
56.6%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 51 yds, downed at the Duke 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
55.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Brandon Hill for 11 yards to the DU40, out-of-bounds, PENALTY DU ineligible downfield on pass (Julian Santos) 5 yards to the DU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 15
OWN 24
-1
56.0%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 23 Deon Jackson fumbled, recovered by Duke Deon JacksonSimilar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 16
OWN 23
+8
56.0%
Deon Jackson run for 8 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+11
56.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 11 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
55.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 6 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+3
55.6%
Daniel Jones run for 3 yds to the GTech 49Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
55.6%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 1
OPP 49
-2
55.8%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
55.7%
Jerry Howard run for 4 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+5
55.7%
Jerry Howard run for 5 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 1
OPP 40
-1
55.7%
Clinton Lynch run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+1
55.3%
Jerry Howard run for 1 yd to the Duke 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5FUMBLE
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
53.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Deon Jackson for 4 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+8
53.4%
Deon Jackson run for 8 yds to the GTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
53.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 19 yds to the GTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
53.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
53.2%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the GTech 25Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+7
53.4%
Daniel Jones run for 7 yds to the GTech 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-7
53.2%
Daniel Jones sacked by Tre Swilling for a loss of 7 yards to the GTech 25 Daniel Jones fumbled, recovered by GTech Kyle Cerge-Henderson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6DOWNS
14 plays · 56 yds · 6:0354% → 51%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
53.5%
TaQuon Marshall run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 24Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+11
53.3%
Qua Searcy run for 11 yds to the GTech 35Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+1
53.7%
Jordan Mason run for 1 yd to the GTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
53.7%
Qua Searcy run for 5 yds to the GTech 41Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+19
54.3%
Clinton Lynch run for 19 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
54.7%
TaQuon Marshall run for 1 yd to the Duke 39Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+4
54.7%
Jordan Mason run for 4 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+2
54.6%
Jordan Mason run for 2 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+5
52.2%
DUKE Penalty, offside defense (Derrick Tangelo) to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
53.9%
Jordan Mason run for no gain to the Duke 28 Jordan Mason fumbled, recovered by GTech TaQuon MarshallSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+8
53.8%
Jordan Mason run for 8 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+1
53.2%
Jordan Mason run for 1 yd to the Duke 19Similar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 1
OPP 19
0
51.2%
TaQuon Marshall run for no gain to the Duke 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
49.8%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 20Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+8
50.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 8 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+3
49.2%
Daniel Jones run for 3 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-9
49.1%
Daniel Jones sacked by Anree Saint-Amour for a loss of 9 yards to the Duke 22Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 19
OWN 22
+12
50.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Jake Bobo for 12 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
49.5%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:01
4TH & 7
OWN 34
+8
50.3%
Austin Parker punt for 51 yds , Brad Stewart returns for 8 yds to the GTech 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
48.7%
TaQuon Marshall run for 5 yds to the GTech 28Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+5
49.0%
Jerry Howard run for 5 yds to the GTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
49.1%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Nathan Cottrell for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 30Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 13
OWN 30
-3
48.6%
TaQuon Marshall run for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 27Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 16
OWN 27
+16
47.7%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Jerry Howard for 16 yds to the GTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
50.3%
Qua Searcy run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 42Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 11
OWN 42
-1
49.6%
TaQuon Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 41Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 12
OWN 41
0
48.3%
TaQuon Marshall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 12
OWN 41
+3
47.8%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 58 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for 3 yds to the Duke 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
45.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+3
45.5%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 7Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+4
46.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Deon Jackson for 4 yds to the Duke 11Similar
Q2 5:39
4TH & 3
OWN 11
+2
46.5%
Austin Parker punt for 57 yds , Brad Stewart returns for 2 yds to the GTech 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
44.9%
Clinton Lynch run for 6 yds to the GTech 40Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+8
46.8%
Nathan Cottrell run for 8 yds to the GTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
47.1%
TaQuon Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 47Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 11
OWN 47
0
45.8%
TaQuon Marshall pass incomplete to Brad StewartSimilar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 11
OWN 47
0
44.9%
TaQuon Marshall pass incomplete to Brad Stewart, broken up by Marquis WatersSimilar
Q2 4:04
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
43.5%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 34 yds, downed at the Duke 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
41.1%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted Lamont Simmons return for no gain to the Duke 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12TD
2 plays · 31 yds · 0:4848% → 62%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
48.0%
TaQuon Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+32
61.6%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Malachi Carter for 32 yds for a TD (Wesley Wells KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:4247% → 44%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
52.6%
Daniel Jones sacked by Anree Saint-Amour for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 33 Daniel Jones fumbled, recovered by Duke Daniel Jones , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 13
OWN 33
0
54.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
55.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel HelmSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 13
OWN 33
-2
56.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 45 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
57.8%
Jordan Mason run for 2 yds to the GTech 10Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+26
57.8%
TaQuon Marshall run for 26 yds to the GTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
59.2%
Jordan Mason run for no gain to the GTech 36 Jordan Mason fumbled, forced by Derrick Tangelo, recovered by GTechSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
58.8%
Jordan Mason run for 9 yds to the GTech 45Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
60.1%
Clinton Lynch run for 4 yds to the GTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
60.9%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, false start (Clinton Lynch) to the GTech 44Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+3
59.4%
Jordan Mason run for 3 yds to the GTech 47Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+6
59.5%
TaQuon Marshall run for 6 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
60.5%
TaQuon Marshall pass incomplete to Brad StewartSimilar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
58.4%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 42 yds, downed at the Duke 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 44 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
55.1%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 9Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+8
55.5%
Deon Jackson run for 8 yds to the Duke 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
54.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel Helm, broken up by Tariq CarpenterSimilar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+12
55.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 12 yds to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
54.2%
Daniel Jones run for 10 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
52.6%
Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+4
51.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 4 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+4
51.6%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the GTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
50.9%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
51.2%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the GTech 46Similar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-5
51.8%
Daniel Jones sacked by Brant Mitchell for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 49Similar
Q3 10:29
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
55.7%
Austin Parker punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Brad Stewart at the GTech 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16FUMBLE
8 plays · 48 yds · 0:4457% → 62%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
57.3%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, false start (Connor Hansen) to the GTech 5Similar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 14
OWN 5
+2
57.3%
Jerry Howard run for 2 yds to the GTech 7Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 12
OWN 7
+4
57.1%
Jerry Howard run for 4 yds to the GTech 11Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 11
+21
55.3%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Brad Stewart for 21 yds to the GTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
58.0%
DUKE Penalty, offside defense (Chris Rumph II) to the GTech 37Similar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 5
OWN 37
+6
60.4%
Jerry Howard run for 6 yds to the GTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
60.6%
Jerry Howard run for 6 yds to the GTech 49Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+7
61.5%
Jerry Howard run for 7 yds to the Duke 43 Jerry Howard fumbled, forced by Axel Nyembwe, recovered by Duke Chris Rumph IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 3:1149% → 70%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
50.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 11 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
49.6%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 48Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 12
OPP 48
0
51.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Charlie ThomasSimilar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 12
OPP 48
+48
30.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 48 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
36.3%
TaQuon Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 34 TaQuon Marshall fumbled, recovered by Duke Twazanga MugalaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19TD
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:3472% → 88%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
28.3%
Deon Jackson run for 9 yds to the GTech 25Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+2
28.0%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the GTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+20
28.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 20 yds to the GTech 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
25.8%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the GTech 1Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21TD
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
2.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 6 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 22TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:095% → 9%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.7%
TaQuon Marshall pass incomplete to Brad StewartSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
4.6%
TaQuon Marshall run for 8 yds to the GTech 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
4.8%
Clinton Lynch run for 4 yds to the GTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
4.7%
TaQuon Marshall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
4.7%
Jordan Mason run for 6 yds to the GTech 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+3
4.8%
Jordan Mason run for 3 yds to the GTech 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+1
5.0%
TaQuon Marshall run for 1 yd to the GTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+25
3.3%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Qua Searcy for 25 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
3.8%
TaQuon Marshall run for 6 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+2
3.4%
Tobias Oliver run for 2 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+2
3.3%
Tobias Oliver run for 2 yds to the Duke 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
3.4%
James Graham run for 4 yds to the Duke 14Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+8
3.4%
Tobias Oliver run for 8 yds to the Duke 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
3.4%
Tobias Oliver run for 4 yds to the Duke 2Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
8.7%
Jerry Howard run for 2 yds for a TD DUKE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Wesley Wells KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23FUMBLE
6 plays · 36 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
5.7%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the GTech 39Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+5
5.6%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the GTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
5.7%
Deon Jackson run for 6 yds to the GTech 28Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+18
5.6%
Deon Jackson run for 18 yds to the GTech 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
5.6%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the GTech 14 Deon Jackson fumbled, recovered by GTech Bruce Jordan-Swilling , return for 6 yds to the GTech 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 24DOWNS
15 plays · 61 yds · 3:275% → 3%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
4.6%
Tobias Oliver run for 8 yds to the GTech 22Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+5
4.8%
Tobias Oliver run for 5 yds to the GTech 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
4.7%
Tobias Oliver run for no gain to the GTech 27 Tobias Oliver fumbled, recovered by GTech Tobias OliverSimilar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+9
4.6%
Tobias Oliver pass complete to Nathan Cottrell for 9 yds to the GTech 36Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+7
5.0%
Jerry Howard run for 7 yds to the GTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
5.0%
Tobias Oliver pass incomplete to Clinton LynchSimilar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
5.0%
Tobias Oliver run for 8 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+12
5.3%
Jerry Howard run for 12 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-6
5.3%
Tobias Oliver sacked by Leonard Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 43Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 16
OPP 43
+25
3.0%
Tobias Oliver pass complete to Brad Stewart for 25 yds to the Duke 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-7
3.7%
Tobias Oliver sacked by Leonard Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 17
OPP 25
0
3.5%
Tobias Oliver pass incomplete to Malachi CarterSimilar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 17
OPP 25
0
3.3%
Tobias Oliver pass incomplete to Malachi CarterSimilar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 17
OPP 25
0
2.5%
Tobias Oliver pass incomplete to Brad StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
2.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 24Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
2.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:49
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 48 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)
-20.8
TD · Q3 0:15
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)
-14.1
TD · Q2 0:54
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Malachi Carter for 32 yds for a TD (Wesley Wells KICK)
+13.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com