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LOU

Louisville 20 at Boston College 38

BC
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2018 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:40 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:37: Hassan Hall run for 3 yds for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +3.6 pts (now 24%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:37: Jawon Pass run for 3 yds for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +8.9 pts (now 34%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:04: Colton Lichtenberg 38 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +2.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:30: David Bailey run for 1 yd for a TD (Colton Lichtenberg KICK) — BC win probability +12.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:34: Jeff Smith run for 5 yds for a TD (Colton Lichtenberg KICK) — BC win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 5 of 9LOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00LOU 4th & 21 at LOU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:23LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 17, down 7
    Close callPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:00LOU 4th & 11 at BC 38, down 14
    Close callPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    19.3%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:44LOU 4th & 1 at BC 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    17.1%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    14.4%−3.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:37BC 4th & 10 at BC 35, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:22BC 4th & 5 at LOU 27, up 1
    Close callWent for it · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    76.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    74.9%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:37BC 4th & 4 at LOU 47, down 6
    Close callPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:42LOU 4th & 9 at LOU 20, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:25LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:04BC 4th & 3 at LOU 21, up 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.4%−0.6
    74% to make
    Punt
    68.3%−5.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00BC 4th & 1 at BC 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    73.8%−1.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00BC 4th & 26 at midfield, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:03LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:30BC 4th & 1 at LOU 5, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.3%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    73.2%−3.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−11.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00LOU 4th & 18 at BC 37, down 4
    Close callPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−1.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    27.1%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:49BC 4th & 4 at LOU 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    75.2%−0.5
    70% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−10.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:30LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:32BC 4th & 3 at BC 28, up 11
    Close callPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:00LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:34LOU 4th & 18 at LOU 1, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:23BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:00BC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:44LOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    20.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:37LOU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:37LOU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:30BC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:34BC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
81.0%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Kemari Averett, broken up by Ray SmithSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
81.0%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Trey SmithSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 24
-11
81.0%
Jawon Pass sacked by Wyatt Ray for a loss of 11 yards to the Lvile 13Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 21
OWN 13
0
81.0%
Mason King punt for 32 yds, downed at the Lvile 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:3581% → 81%
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
80.9%
Ben Glines run for 2 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+6
80.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 6 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+5
80.9%
Ben Glines run for 5 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
80.9%
Ben Glines run for 6 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+26
81.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Hunter Long for 26 yds for a TD (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
81.0%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the Lvile 10Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 8
OWN 10
-2
81.0%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 8Similar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+9
81.0%
Jawon Pass run for 9 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
Q1 12:23
4TH & 1
OWN 17
+4
81.0%
Mason King punt for 34 yds , Michael Walker returns for 4 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4TD
4 plays · 47 yds · 1:1481% → 83%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+42
81.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Michael Walker for 42 yds to the Lvile 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
81.3%
Ben Glines run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 6Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
81.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Ray Marten for 4 yds to the Lvile 2Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.5%
Ben Glines run for 2 yds for a TD LOUISVILLE Penalty, substitution infraction (1 Yards) to the Lvile 2 (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.1%
Trey Smith run for 3 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+22
82.1%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Devante Peete for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
81.9%
Jawon Pass run for 5 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
81.8%
Jawon Pass pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+8
81.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 8 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
81.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Devante Peete for no gain to the BC 37Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-1
81.9%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 38Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 11
OPP 38
0
82.0%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 11
OPP 38
0
82.1%
Mason King punt for 33 yds, downed at the BC 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6FUMBLE
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
83.4%
Ben Glines run for 1 yd to the BC 6 Ben Glines fumbled, recovered by Lvile Dorian EtheridgeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7TD
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4218% → 19%
Q1 5:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
82.1%
Jawon Pass run for no gain to the BC 6Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
82.1%
Trey Smith run for 3 yds to the BC 3Similar
Q1 5:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
82.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds to the BC 1Similar
Q1 3:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd for a TD (Blanton Creque PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 2:0720% → 24%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
80.4%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Micky Crum for 18 yds to the BC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
79.9%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Micky Crum, broken up by Isaiah McDuffieSimilar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+14
80.1%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 14 yds to the BC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
79.9%
Trey Smith run for 5 yds to the BC 3Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
76.3%
Hassan Hall run for 3 yds for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
78.0%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Chris GarrisonSimilar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
77.9%
Ben Glines run for 7 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-2
78.2%
Ben Glines run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 40Similar
Q1 1:37
4TH & 5
OWN 40
-5
77.5%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BC 35Similar
Q1 1:37
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+2
77.2%
Grant Carlson punt for 41 yds , Rodjay Burns returns for 2 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0423% → 23%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
77.3%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Hassan Hall for 9 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 35
-3
76.7%
Marcus Riley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+1
77.4%
Jawon Pass pass intercepted Hamp Cheevers return for 1 yd to the Lvile 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
78.6%
Ben Glines run for 6 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 4
OPP 26
-6
78.6%
Ben Glines run for 4 yds to the Lvile 22 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, HL (Aaron Monteiro) to the Lvile 32Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
78.6%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Travis LevySimilar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+5
78.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Levy for 5 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q2 14:22
4TH & 5
OPP 27
0
77.5%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Travis LevySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:2423% → 34%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
76.7%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 17 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
75.8%
Jawon Pass run for 14 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
75.4%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
75.5%
Hassan Hall run for 4 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+9
75.6%
Jawon Pass run for 9 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
74.9%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+8
75.0%
Hassan Hall run for 8 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+3
75.4%
Hassan Hall run for 3 yds to the BC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
74.9%
Pass, Jaw. pass incomplete to Smith, Jay., PENALTY BC pass interference (Sebastian,B) 15 yards to the BC3, 1ST DOWN LOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
66.0%
Jawon Pass run for 3 yds for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 0:0069% → 70%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
69.0%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+6
69.2%
David Bailey run for 6 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+4
69.4%
Anthony Brown run for 4 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
69.3%
Jeff Smith run for 8 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+4
70.6%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
70.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 2 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+3
70.7%
Ben Glines run for 3 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 5
OPP 48
-5
70.7%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (Ben Glines) to the BC 47Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+6
69.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 6 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q2 9:37
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
69.7%
Grant Carlson punt for 28 yds, downed at the Lvile 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15PUNT TD
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:1736% → 24%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
64.0%
Jawon Pass sacked by Tanner Karafa for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 16Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 13
OWN 16
-5
64.4%
Jawon Pass sacked by Zach Allen for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 11Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 18
OWN 11
+9
65.0%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Hassan Hall for 9 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q2 3:42
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
76.0%
TEAM punt blocked by blocked by Travis Levy return for no gain for a TD (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:1726% → 25%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
74.3%
Jawon Pass sacked by Wyatt Ray for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 17Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 18
OWN 17
-3
74.2%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Trey Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 14Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+11
74.7%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Hassan Hall for 11 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.2%
Mason King punt for 38 yds , Michael Walker returns for 3 yds to the BC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17FG
14 plays · 39 yds · 2:3776% → 77%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
75.7%
Michael Walker run for 3 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
76.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Michael Walker for 6 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+10
75.6%
David Bailey run for 10 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
76.7%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Michael WalkerSimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-5
76.5%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 46Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+18
75.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Korab Idrizi for 18 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
77.1%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+2
77.0%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+5
76.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Levy for 5 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+38
77.3%
Colton Lichtenberg 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19PUNT
15 plays · 22 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
75.6%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+5
75.7%
Jeff Smith run for 5 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+4
75.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 4 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
76.8%
Travis Levy run for 1 yd to the BC 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+1
76.4%
Anthony Brown run for 1 yd to the BC 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+7
75.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to CJ Lewis for 7 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+1
75.8%
Anthony Brown run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+2
77.4%
Anthony Brown run for 2 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+14
77.5%
Travis Levy run for 14 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
78.1%
Travis Levy run for 2 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-9
78.1%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the Lvile 31 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, HL (Aaron Monteiro) to the Lvile 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 41
0
76.5%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Chris Garrison, broken up by C.J. AverySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 41
-9
75.6%
Anthony Brown sacked by Amonte Caban for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 26
50
0
74.3%
Grant Carlson punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0025% → 23%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
75.3%
Hassan Hall run for 4 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
75.0%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Kemari Averett for 4 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-2
75.4%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 26Similar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+34
76.9%
Mason King punt for 48 yds , Michael Walker returns for 34 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:2779% → 77%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
78.8%
David Bailey run for 11 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
79.5%
David Bailey run for 5 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+10
79.5%
David Bailey run for 10 yds to the Lvile 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
79.5%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the Lvile 11Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+4
79.5%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the Lvile 7Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+2
78.4%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the Lvile 5Similar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 1
OPP 5
0
77.1%
David Bailey run for no gain to the Lvile 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22PUNT
13 plays · 58 yds · 5:2526% → 27%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
74.3%
Hassan Hall run for 5 yds to the Lvile 10Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+1
74.2%
Hassan Hall run for 1 yd to the Lvile 11Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+4
75.3%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Devante Peete for 4 yds to the Lvile 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
73.8%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 3 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+10
73.9%
Hassan Hall run for 10 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
72.9%
Hassan Hall run for 4 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+12
72.5%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 12 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
70.6%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 16 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
69.4%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Devante Peete for 11 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
67.6%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
68.2%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 10
OPP 29
-8
69.8%
Jawon Pass sacked by Max Richardson for a loss of 8 yards to the BC 37Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 18
OPP 37
0
73.1%
Mason King punt for 30 yds, downed at the BC 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23TD
13 plays · 93 yds · 4:1974% → 92%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
74.2%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the BC 11Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+7
74.7%
David Bailey run for 7 yds to the BC 18 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
75.3%
David Bailey run for 9 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 1
OWN 27
0
76.5%
David Bailey run for no gain to the BC 27Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+2
74.5%
Anthony Brown run for 2 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+19
75.7%
Ben Glines run for 19 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+23
78.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 23 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
79.1%
Ben Glines run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 30Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+5
78.9%
David Bailey run for 5 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+2
78.0%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the Lvile 23Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+20
76.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Levy for 20 yds to the Lvile 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
79.2%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the Lvile 1Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.8%
David Bailey run for 1 yd for a TD (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.4%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
90.6%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 15 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
88.5%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
89.1%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Micky CrumSimilar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
89.8%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q4 10:30
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+1
91.1%
Mason King punt for 40 yds , Michael Walker returns for 1 yd to the BC 41 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, HL (John Lamot) to the BC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
91.4%
David Bailey run for 8 yds to the BC 19Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+2
91.7%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the BC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
91.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for no gain to the BC 21Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
91.4%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the BC 23Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+5
91.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Levy for 5 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q4 9:32
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+2
90.8%
Grant Carlson punt for 47 yds , Rodjay Burns returns for 2 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 7%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
91.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jaylen Smith, broken up by Brandon SebastianSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
91.9%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Devante PeeteSimilar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
92.4%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
92.8%
Mason King punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Michael Walker at the BC 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 27TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 3:0293% → 99%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
93.0%
David Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 32Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+2
92.5%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+41
92.9%
Ben Glines run for 41 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
93.6%
Ben Glines run for 9 yds to the Lvile 16Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+6
93.6%
Ben Glines run for 6 yds to the Lvile 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
95.7%
Ben Glines run for no gain to the Lvile 10Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
96.5%
David Bailey run for 5 yds to the Lvile 5Similar
Q4 3:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.0%
Jeff Smith run for 5 yds for a TD (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
99.4%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 9
-7
99.4%
Jordan Travis sacked by Isaiah McDuffie for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 2Similar
Q4 3:34
3RD & 17
OWN 2
-1
99.4%
Jordan Travis sacked by Wyatt Ray for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 1Similar
Q4 3:34
4TH & 18
OWN 1
0
99.4%
Mason King punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Michael Walker at the Lvile 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 13
OPP 43
-2
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 15
OPP 45
-2
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:30
David Bailey run for 1 yd for a TD (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)
+12.6
TD · Q2 9:37
Jawon Pass run for 3 yds for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK)
-8.9
TD · Q1 1:37
Hassan Hall run for 3 yds for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK)
-3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com