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Notre Dame 45 at Virginia Tech 23

VT
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:11 · Tyler Newsome punt for 42 yds , C.J. Carroll returns for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 8 C.J. Carroll fumbled, recovered by VTech C.J. Carroll
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 69Home team on offense−3.2Pregame prior−11.2Score differential−1.7Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:12: Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 3 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +14.4 pts (now 47%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:49: Dexter Williams run for 97 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +13.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:59: Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 40 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +11.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:08: Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 5 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +3.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:40: Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 15 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +4.7 pts (now 6%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 6 of 10ND made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 9:50ND 4th & 1 at VT 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.5%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    63.2%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:07VT 4th & 4 at VT 28, down 7
    Close callPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:58ND 4th & 7 at VT 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:53VT 4th & 7 at ND 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:15ND 4th & 6 at VT 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    65.8%−0.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    66.1%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:06VT 4th & 17 at ND 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    29.9%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:11ND 4th & 10 at ND 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:58VT 4th & 10 at VT 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−2.0
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:21VT 4th & 5 at ND 5, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−6.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:17ND 4th & 12 at ND 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−2.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:31VT 4th & 8 at ND 42, down 1
    Close callPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    42.7%−1.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:31VT 4th & 11 at ND 30, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    26.2%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:52VT 4th & 5 at ND 44, down 15
    Close callPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    14.4%−1.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:21ND 4th & 13 at ND 17, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−2.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:51VT 4th & 7 at ND 35, down 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.2%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:23VT 4th & 3 at ND 37, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:39ND 4th & 8 at VT 36, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:24ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:12VT Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:49ND Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:59ND Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:08ND Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:40VT Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.9%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:50ND Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
14 plays · 78 yds · 5:2667% → 68%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
32.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 1 yd to the NDame 26Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
32.8%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 21Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+18
32.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 18 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
32.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 3 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+19
33.1%
Book, Ian pass sacked for loss of 3 yards to the NOTREDAME39 (Hewitt, Jarrod), PENALTY VATECH personal foul 19 yards to the VATECH42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
33.4%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the VTech 39Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+1
33.4%
Dexter Williams run for 1 yd to the VTech 38Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+16
33.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Alize Mack for 16 yds to the VTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
33.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 11 yds to the VTech 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
33.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 6 yds to the VTech 5Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+3
33.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Alize Mack for 3 yds to the VTech 2Similar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+1
34.4%
Ian Book run for 1 yd to the VTech 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.5%
Dexter Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1233% → 33%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
33.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Sean SavoySimilar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
33.1%
Sean Savoy run for 4 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+2
32.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Peoples for 2 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
32.7%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3FG
5 plays · 59 yds · 1:0267% → 68%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+56
32.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 56 yds to the VTech 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
32.1%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+3
32.1%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the VTech 14Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
32.2%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q1 6:58
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+31
32.4%
Justin Yoon 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4FG
17 plays · 53 yds · 5:5733% → 34%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
32.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 12 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
33.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 8 yds to the VTech 45Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
33.4%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Eric KumahSimilar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+6
33.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Peoples for 6 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
33.6%
Grimsley, Hezekiah pass complete to Savoy, Sean for 49 yards to the NOTREDAME0, PENALTY VATECH ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the VATECH46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+9
33.2%
Deshawn McClease run for 9 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+9
33.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre Turner for 9 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
33.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 5 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+4
34.3%
Ryan Willis run for 4 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
32.9%
Ryan Willis run for 2 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
33.5%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 15
OPP 30
-5
32.7%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 35Similar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+6
32.6%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 6 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 14
OPP 29
0
32.6%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Terius WheatleySimilar
Q1 1:10
3RD & 14
OPP 29
+7
31.8%
Ryan Willis run for 7 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q1 0:53
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+39
33.7%
Brian Johnson 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 18 yds · 2:2567% → 68%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
32.7%
Dexter Williams run for 13 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
31.9%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chris FinkeSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
32.0%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+15
32.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 15 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
31.5%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
31.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Alize Mack for 4 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
31.7%
Ian Book run for no gain to the VTech 41Similar
Q2 13:15
4TH & 6
OPP 41
-16
32.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 16 yards to the NDame 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6FG
9 plays · 17 yds · 3:0434% → 36%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
34.4%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
34.1%
Ryan Willis run for 5 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+19
34.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 19 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
35.2%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 24Similar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 15
OPP 24
-11
34.9%
Ryan Willis sacked by Julian Okwara and Khalid Kareem for a loss of 11 yards to the NDame 35Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 26
OPP 35
+11
34.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Sean Savoy for 11 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 15
OPP 24
-2
33.3%
Steven Peoples run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 26Similar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 17
OPP 26
+43
36.0%
Brian Johnson 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7FUMBLE
10 plays · 22 yds · 2:4964% → 63%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
36.2%
Dexter Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 23Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+7
36.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 7 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
36.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 6 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
36.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 11 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
34.5%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
34.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Young for no gain to the NDame 47Similar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
35.1%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 10
OWN 47
-3
36.8%
Tyler Newsome punt for 42 yds , C.J. Carroll returns for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 8 C.J. Carroll fumbled, recovered by VTech C.J. CarrollSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:0636% → 35%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
36.1%
Ryan Willis run for 5 yds to the VTech 13Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+8
36.4%
Hezekiah Grimsley run for 8 yds to the VTech 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
36.6%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
36.5%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Eric KumahSimilar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
35.5%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Hezekiah GrimsleySimilar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
35.1%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
35.3%
Ian Book pass intercepted Reggie Floyd return for 5 yds to the NDame 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10FG
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:2340% → 42%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
39.7%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Sean SavoySimilar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+41
39.6%
Steven Peoples run for 41 yds to the NDame 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
40.9%
Steven Peoples run for no gain to the NDame 1Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
41.1%
Steven Peoples run for no gain to the NDame 1Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
40.1%
Ryan Willis run for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 5Similar
Q2 3:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
42.4%
Brian Johnson 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5761% → 59%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
38.7%
Ian Book sacked by Khalil Ladler for a loss of 8 yards to the NDame 17 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the NDame 17Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+6
39.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Alize Mack for 6 yds to the NDame 23Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
40.1%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q2 2:17
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+20
41.0%
Tyler Newsome punt for 58 yds , C.J. Carroll returns for 20 yds to the VTech 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0242% → 31%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
42.2%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
41.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 2 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+11
41.1%
Ryan Willis run for 11 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+42
30.8%
Ryan Willis sacked by Khalid Kareem for a loss of 10 yards Ryan Willis fumbled, forced by Khalid Kareem, recovered by NDame Julian Love , return for 0 yards , return for 42 yds, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 0:4828% → 47%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
27.8%
Deshawn McClease run for 7 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
29.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+16
27.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 16 yds to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
30.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 12 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
30.8%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NDame 35Similar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 5
OPP 35
+16
32.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 16 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
32.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Eric KumahSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+16
32.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Sean Savoy for 12 yds to the NDame 7 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Personal Foul (4 Yards) to the NDame 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
46.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 3 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
39.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:0942% → 42%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
42.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 11 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
43.1%
Steven Peoples run for 19 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
46.1%
Steven Peoples run for 1 yd to the NDame 43Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
46.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Chris CunninghamSimilar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+1
44.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Sean Savoy for 1 yd to the NDame 42Similar
Q3 12:31
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
42.0%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 37 yds, downed at the NDame 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16TD
2 plays · 95 yds · 0:3659% → 72%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
40.9%
Dexter Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 3Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+97
27.6%
Dexter Williams run for 97 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17MISSED FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 2:5528% → 27%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
27.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 11 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
28.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 16 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
31.0%
Deshawn McClease run for 2 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+5
31.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 5 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+12
30.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre Turner for 12 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
32.5%
Steven Peoples run for 1 yd to the NDame 28Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 9
OPP 28
-2
32.5%
Terius Wheatley run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 30Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 11
OPP 30
0
29.9%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Sean SavoySimilar
Q3 8:31
4TH & 11
OPP 30
+47
27.1%
Brian Johnson 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:2075% → 88%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
25.1%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+6
24.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 6 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+5
24.1%
Dexter Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
23.5%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
23.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Alize Mack for 4 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+10
23.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 10 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
23.0%
Tony Jones Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 45Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+5
23.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 5 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+40
12.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 40 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:4815% → 15%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
14.6%
Deshawn McClease run for no gain to the VTech 23Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
14.1%
Ryan Willis run for 4 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+24
14.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 24 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
15.9%
Ryan Willis run for 3 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+2
15.8%
Steven Peoples run for 2 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
15.5%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Steven PeoplesSimilar
Q3 1:52
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
14.9%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2689% → 90%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
11.2%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
11.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for no gain to the NDame 20Similar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-3
11.4%
Ian Book sacked by Jovonn Quillen for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 17Similar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+10
9.6%
Tyler Newsome punt for 43 yds , C.J. Carroll returns for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21MISSED FG
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:0915% → 14%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+12
14.8%
Deshawn McClease run for 12 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
15.1%
Eric Kumah run for no gain to the NDame 38Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
14.8%
Deshawn McClease run for 3 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q4 13:56
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
14.4%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to James MitchellSimilar
Q4 13:51
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+52
14.0%
Brian Johnson 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:3293% → 99%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
7.1%
Ian Book run for 3 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+12
6.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 12 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
6.4%
Dexter Williams run for no gain to the VTech 49Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
6.2%
Dexter Williams run for 7 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+6
6.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Alize Mack for 6 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
5.5%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+5
4.9%
Avery Davis run for 5 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+20
4.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 20 yds to the VTech 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
4.6%
Ian Book run for 1 yd to the VTech 7Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
4.5%
Dexter Williams run for 2 yds to the VTech 5Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
1.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 5 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 3:152% → 6%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
2.0%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-4
1.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Deshawn McClease for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 16Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+22
1.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Sean Savoy for 22 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
1.9%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Sean SavoySimilar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
1.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 3 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+15
1.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 15 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
1.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 7 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 3
OPP 37
0
1.4%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 3
OPP 37
0
1.4%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Ricky WalkerSimilar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+20
1.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Peoples for 20 yds to the NDame 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
1.4%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Sean SavoySimilar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+2
1.4%
Steven Peoples run for 2 yds to the NDame 15Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+15
6.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 15 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24TD
3 plays · 44 yds · 0:2097% → 99%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
3.1%
Dexter Williams run for 13 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
0.6%
Dexter Williams run for 31 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 25INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:441% → 1%
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
1.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 10 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
1.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Jalen Holston for 2 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
1.0%
Ryan Willis pass intercepted Julian Love return for 4 yds to the VTech 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:01100% → 100%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
0.5%
C'Bo Flemister run for no gain to the VTech 38Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-5
0.5%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 43Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 15
OPP 43
0
0.4%
Brandon Wimbush run for no gain to the VTech 43Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 15
OPP 43
+7
0.4%
Brandon Wimbush run for 7 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 8
OPP 36
+1
0.3%
Brandon Wimbush run for 1 yd to the VTech 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · 9 yds · 1:201% → 1%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
0.7%
Jalen Holston run for 2 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
0.7%
Jalen Holston run for no gain to the VTech 37Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+7
0.7%
Jalen Holston run for 7 yds to the VTech 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:12
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 3 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)
+14.4
TD · Q3 11:49
Dexter Williams run for 97 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)
-13.3
TD · Q3 4:59
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 40 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)
-11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com