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FSU

Florida State 27 at Miami 28

MIA
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:13 · Jack Spicer punt for 53 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for no gain to the FlaSt 25 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the FlaSt 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 57Pregame prior+22.5Home team on offense+0.8Score differential−0.5Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:32: Tamorrion Terry 17 Yd pass from Deondre Francois (Ricky Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +10.3 pts (now 46%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:52: D.J. Matthews 74 Yd Punt Return (Ricky Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +16.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:53: Lawrence Cager 3 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Bubba Baxa Kick) — MIA win probability +14.2 pts (now 36%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:11: Jeff Thomas 17 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Bubba Baxa Kick) — MIA win probability +29.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 11:52: Brevin Jordan 41 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Bubba Baxa Kick) — MIA win probability +31.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 10 of 13FSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:19MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:42MIA 4th & 8 at FSU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:15FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:26MIA 4th & 2 at FSU 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.5%
    55% to convert
    Field goal
    70.5%−1.0
    88% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−6.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:43FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:13MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:19FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:20FSU 4th & 3 at MIA 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.4%−0.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−4.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:30MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:36MIA 4th & 3 at FSU 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.1%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:03FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 26, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−2.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:52MIA 4th & 23 at MIA 27, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−3.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:11MIA 4th & 12 at FSU 45, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−1.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    21.9%−2.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:53MIA 4th & 3 at FSU 3, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    20.1%−2.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−14.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:14FSU 4th & 14 at FSU 36, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−5.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:46MIA 4th & 24 at MIA 17, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−7.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:42FSU 4th & 5 at MIA 26, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    52.1%−10.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:00FSU 4th & 8 at FSU 27, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−2.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:36MIA 4th & 1 at FSU 47, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.8 ptsPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%−4.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:13FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 23, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−1.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:39MIA 4th & 10 at FSU 11, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−2.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    45.6%−20.3
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:12FSU 4th & 22 at FSU 8, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−5.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:05MIA 4th & 1 at FSU 16, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    63.6%−9.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−33.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:41FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:26MIA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:32FSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:52FSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:53MIA Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:11MIA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:52MIA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3683% → 83%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
83.3%
Travis Homer run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+6
83.1%
Travis Homer run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
82.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Jeff ThomasSimilar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 3
OWN 29
+20
82.8%
Jack Spicer punt for 49 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 20 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 3:3817% → 20%
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
82.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 1 yd to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+10
82.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 10 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
82.3%
Deondre Francois run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-7
82.1%
Deondre Francois sacked by Joe Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 14
OWN 49
+21
82.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 21 yds to the MiaFl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
81.7%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+5
81.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+4
81.5%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
80.3%
Keith Gavin 17 Yd pass from Deondre Francois (Ricky Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:4581% → 79%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
80.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Darrell Langham for 9 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
80.4%
DeeJay Dallas run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
79.7%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Marvin Wilson for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 17
OWN 28
+21
79.4%
DeeJay Dallas run for 21 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
79.7%
DeeJay Dallas run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
79.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
79.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q1 6:42
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
78.9%
Jack Spicer punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:1521% → 23%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
78.6%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
78.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 7 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
77.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Cam Akers for 7 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
77.2%
Deondre Francois sacked by Joe Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 11
OWN 37
0
77.2%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
77.4%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
77.5%
Logan Tyler punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5TD
16 plays · 83 yds · 7:4277% → 78%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
77.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+7
77.0%
Travis Homer run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+9
76.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 9 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
76.3%
Travis Homer run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+5
76.2%
Travis Homer run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
76.1%
N'Kosi Perry run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
75.0%
DeeJay Dallas run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
75.1%
DeeJay Dallas run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+3
74.6%
Travis Homer run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+10
74.1%
N'Kosi Perry run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
74.8%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
74.6%
Travis Homer run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+3
73.8%
Travis Homer run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 1
OPP 9
-1
72.8%
DeeJay Dallas run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q2 11:26
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+10
78.0%
Lawrence Cager 10 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Bubba Baxa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2323% → 24%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
76.8%
Cam Akers run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+1
75.8%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 1
OWN 38
0
75.4%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
76.0%
Logan Tyler punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jeff Thomas at the MiaFl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1878% → 76%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
77.8%
DeeJay Dallas run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 13
OWN 18
0
77.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 13
OWN 18
+4
76.9%
N'Kosi Perry run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q2 8:13
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
76.3%
Jack Spicer punt for 53 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for no gain to the FlaSt 25 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the FlaSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4825% → 24%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
75.3%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+6
75.3%
Amir Rasul run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
75.4%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 4
OWN 21
+6
76.0%
Logan Tyler punt for 55 yds , DeeJay Dallas returns for 6 yds to the MiaFl 30 MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the MiaFl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:4277% → 78%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
77.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+27
76.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 27 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
78.3%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Brian Burns for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 43 N'Kosi Perry fumbled, recovered by FlaSt DeCalon Brooks , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:4028% → 30%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
71.6%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+9
71.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for 9 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
70.5%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+6
70.4%
Deondre Francois run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+1
70.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 1 yd to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 4:20
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+42
69.7%
Ricky Aguayo 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:3671% → 70%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.7%
DeeJay Dallas run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
70.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
69.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brian Hightower for 7 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 3:30
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+44
69.9%
Jack Spicer punt for 46 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 44 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:4033% → 46%
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
67.3%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+3
66.6%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+6
66.5%
Jacques Patrick run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
65.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+9
65.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
63.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+17
53.6%
Tamorrion Terry 17 Yd pass from Deondre Francois (Ricky Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:4156% → 54%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
56.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 20 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
57.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Travis Homer for 7 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 3
OPP 48
0
58.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
57.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Travis HomerSimilar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
54.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:2548% → 57%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
52.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 20 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-4
49.4%
Deondre Francois sacked by Jonathan Garvin for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 14
OPP 36
0
50.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 36
+53
43.4%
Ricky Aguayo 53 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5252% → 52%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.2%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q3 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
47.7%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q3 14:14
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
47.7%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:03
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+5
48.2%
Logan Tyler punt for 39 yds , DeeJay Dallas returns for 5 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16PUNT TD
4 plays · -13 yds · 1:3050% → 29%
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
50.1%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Brian Burns for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 35 N'Kosi Perry fumbled, recovered by MiaFlSimilar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 15
OWN 35
0
48.4%
Travis Homer run for no gain to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 15
OWN 35
-8
45.7%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Marvin Wilson for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q3 11:52
4TH & 23
OWN 27
+74
29.2%
D.J. Matthews 74 Yd Punt Return (Ricky Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:1027% → 23%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
27.4%
N'Kosi Perry run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
27.9%
Travis Homer run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+12
28.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Trayone Gray for 12 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
27.4%
Travis Homer run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 13
OPP 46
-3
25.5%
Travis Homer run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 16
OPP 49
+4
24.2%
Travis Homer run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q3 8:11
4TH & 12
OPP 45
+7
23.3%
Jack Spicer punt for 41 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 7 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2082% → 83%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
17.9%
Cam Akers run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
17.6%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
17.3%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 6
OWN 28
-8
16.8%
Deondre Francois sacked by Sheldrick Redwine for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaSt 20 Deondre Francois fumbled, recovered by MiaFlSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19TD
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:2721% → 36%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
21.4%
DeeJay Dallas run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+15
21.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
23.9%
N'Kosi Perry run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
24.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q3 4:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
21.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
36.1%
Lawrence Cager 3 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Bubba Baxa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20INT
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:1373% → 72%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
27.4%
Deondre Francois sacked by Pat Bethel for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+3
27.6%
Deondre Francois pass intercepted Michael Pinckney return for 3 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21TD
1 play · 17 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
57.3%
Jeff Thomas 17 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Bubba Baxa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:3254% → 56%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
46.2%
Deondre Francois run for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+13
46.9%
Deondre Francois run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
44.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 8 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
41.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Amir Rasul for a loss of 2 yards Amir Rasul fumbled, recovered by FlaStSimilar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 12
OWN 38
0
41.4%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 12
OWN 38
-2
42.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q3 1:14
4TH & 14
OWN 36
+33
44.4%
Logan Tyler punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MIAMI 41 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MiaFl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 1:0848% → 43%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
48.2%
DeeJay Dallas run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 0:02
2ND & 12
OWN 29
-7
46.4%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Fredrick Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 22
-5
44.4%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 24
OWN 17
0
44.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:46
4TH & 24
OWN 17
0
43.2%
Jack Spicer punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24MISSED FG
8 plays · 27 yds · 1:5063% → 63%
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
37.0%
Cam Akers run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
35.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 3 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-11
35.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 45 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 18
50
+19
38.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 19 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
34.2%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+4
33.8%
Deondre Francois run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
33.2%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:42
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+43
36.7%
Ricky Aguayo 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 0:4645% → 73%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
44.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
44.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+32
42.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 32 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
73.3%
Brevin Jordan 41 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Bubba Baxa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26FUMBLE
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:2633% → 30%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
67.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
66.6%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
68.5%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
70.1%
Logan Tyler punt for 55 yds , Jeff Thomas returns for no gain to the MiaFl 44 Jeff Thomas fumbled, recovered by MiaFl , return for 34 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2471% → 69%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
71.3%
Travis Homer run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+5
71.5%
Travis Homer run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+1
71.2%
Travis Homer run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q4 8:36
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
68.9%
Jack Spicer punt for 29 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1035% → 33%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
65.3%
Cam Akers run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 2
OWN 26
-3
63.1%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 5
OWN 23
0
66.5%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q4 7:13
4TH & 5
OWN 23
+49
67.2%
Logan Tyler punt for 52 yds , DeeJay Dallas returns for 49 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 29MISSED FG
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:0673% → 67%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
73.2%
Travis Homer run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
73.2%
Travis Homer run for no gain to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
72.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Brevin JordanSimilar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
70.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
67.0%
Bubba Baxa 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:5438% → 33%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
62.0%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
63.0%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-10
64.7%
Deondre Francois sacked by Jonathan Garvin for a loss of 10 yards to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q4 4:12
4TH & 22
OWN 8
0
66.9%
Logan Tyler punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 31END OF GAME
15 plays · 31 yds · 3:5171% → 93%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
71.2%
Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+15
71.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
74.6%
Travis Homer run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
74.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+10
71.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 10 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
71.5%
Trayone Gray run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
81.4%
Trayone Gray run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+1
84.0%
Trayone Gray run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+6
81.6%
Travis Homer run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
86.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
86.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q4 0:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
92.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:52
Brevin Jordan 41 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Bubba Baxa Kick)
+31.2
TD · Q3 4:11
Jeff Thomas 17 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Bubba Baxa Kick)
+29.8
TD · Q3 11:52
D.J. Matthews 74 Yd Punt Return (Ricky Aguayo Kick)
-16.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com