2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:22 · Nick Sciba 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:25: Travis Etienne run for 59 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:16: Travis Etienne run for 3 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +2.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:53: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 55 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +2.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:30: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 20 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:45: Travis Etienne run for 70 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 13 of 15CLEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 13:49CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snapGo for it88.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.9%average punt
- Q1 11:23WAKE 4th & 26 at WAKE 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snapGo for it11.9%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.2%average punt
- Q1 8:55WAKE 4th & 29 at WAKE 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snapGo for it13.0%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.2%average punt
- Q1 7:21CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snapGo for it85.8%−0.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.9%average punt
- Q1 6:34WAKE 4th & 12 at WAKE 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snapGo for it14.0%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.2%average punt
- Q1 5:30WAKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snapGo for it13.0%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.1%average punt
- Q1 3:49CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 40, up 7Close callPunted · 86.6% before the snapGo for it86.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 14:08CLEM 4th & 1 at WAKE 28, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.5%71% to convertField goal84.9%−0.660% to makePunt83.5%−2.1average punt
- Q2 12:09WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 34, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snapGo for it12.2%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.4%average punt
- Q2 8:42WAKE 4th & 11 at WAKE 35, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snapGo for it7.7%−0.426% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.1%average punt
- Q2 4:53CLEM 4th & 13 at CLEM 26, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snapGo for it92.8%−0.619% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.3%average punt
- Q2 3:27WAKE 4th & 1 at CLEM 19, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.8%71% to convertField goal8.2%−0.577% to makePunt6.8%−2.0average punt
- Q3 13:55WAKE 4th & 15 at WAKE 20, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q3 12:35WAKE 4th & 3 at WAKE 45, down 35Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 10:36CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 24, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.6%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.6%average punt
- Q3 8:22WAKE 4th & 7 at CLEM 7, down 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.1%−<0.128% to convertField goalTheir call1.2%91% to makePunt0.7%−0.5average punt
- Q3 6:36CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 49, up 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.9%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.9%average punt
- Q3 5:40WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 25, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it1.0%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q3 2:31WAKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 28, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q4 14:02WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 49, down 46Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 6:08WAKE 4th & 10 at CLEM 30, down 53Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.129% to convertField goal0.2%56% to makePunt0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 4:13CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 37, up 53Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:47WAKE 4th & 8 at WAKE 23, down 53Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 6:25CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.6%97% to makeGo for two86.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:16CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.1%97% to makeGo for two87.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:53CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.3%97% to makeGo for two91.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:30CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:45CLEM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:41CLEM Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:21CLEM Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:08CLEM Touchdown, up 52 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:48CLEM Touchdown, up 59 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5793% → 93%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
6.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 1 yd to the Clem 26Similar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
6.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Garrett Williams for 4 yds to the Clem 30Similar
Q1 13:49
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
6.9%
Will Spiers punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Greg Dortch at the WFrst 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2PUNT8 plays · -5 yds · 2:137% → 8%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
7.3%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (Nathan Gilliam) to the WFrst 35Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 14
OWN 36
-12
7.6%
Sam Hartman sacked by Tre Lamar for a loss of 12 yards to the WFrst 24Similar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 26
OWN 24
+7
7.7%
Dom Maggio punt for 41 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for 7 yds to the Clem 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3FUMBLE3 plays · -1 yds · 0:5292% → 92%
Q1 10:19
3RD & 3
OWN 49
-8
8.0%
Trevor Lawrence run for a loss of 8 yards to the Clem 41 Trevor Lawrence fumbled, recovered by WFrst Carlos Basham Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -19 yds · 1:059% → 9%
CLEMDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 14 yds · 1:2191% → 91%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
8.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 11 yds to the Clem 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
8.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Trevion Thompson for 5 yds to the Clem 34Similar
Q1 7:21
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
9.4%
Will Spiers punt for 38 yds , Greg Dortch returns for no gain to the WFrst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:339% → 9%
Q1 6:34
4TH & 12
OWN 28
+8
9.4%
Dom Maggio punt for 39 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for 8 yds to the Clem 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7TD1 play · 59 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:459% → 9%
Q1 5:30
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
8.7%
Dom Maggio punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2891% → 91%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
8.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 5 yds to the Clem 36Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+3
8.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Adam Choice for 3 yds to the Clem 40Similar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+46
9.1%
Will Spiers punt for 46 yds , Greg Dortch returns for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10INT9 plays · 31 yds · 2:199% → 10%
Q1 3:10
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+22
9.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 22 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+6
9.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Alex Bachman for 6 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 12
OWN 44
0
9.9%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted Tanner Muse return for no gain to the Clem 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11TD8 plays · 62 yds · 2:5790% → 92%
Q1 0:46
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+18
9.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 3 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, Personal Foul (Cameron Glenn) to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
9.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 8 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+1
9.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 1 yd to the WFrst 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:549% → 9%
Q2 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
8.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 4 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+5
8.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 5 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q2 12:09
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
8.7%
Dom Maggio punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13TD5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0092% → 95%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
8.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to T.J. Chase for 6 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 4
OPP 49
-6
8.0%
Trevor Lawrence sacked by DJ Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the Clem 45Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+55
5.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 55 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 10 yds · 1:046% → 6%
CLEMDrive 15PUNT10 plays · 10 yds · 3:4995% → 95%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-8
5.1%
CLEMSON Penalty, Illegal Block (Kyler McMichael) to the Clem 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
4TH & 4
OWN 14
+15
5.6%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Ja'Sir Taylor) to the Clem 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
5.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 3 yds to the Clem 32Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-7
5.3%
Trevor Lawrence sacked by Carlos Basham Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Clem 25Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 25
OWN 14
+12
5.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 12 yds to the Clem 26Similar
Q2 4:53
4TH & 13
OWN 26
+24
5.4%
Will Spiers punt for 46 yds , Greg Dortch returns for 24 yds to the Clem 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16DOWNS5 plays · 29 yds · 1:167% → 7%
CLEMDrive 17TD13 plays · 81 yds · 2:5195% → 97%
Q2 1:48
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+9
4.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 9 yds to the Clem 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+18
4.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 18 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
4.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 11 yds to the WFrst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 5
OPP 18
-2
4.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Braden Galloway for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 20Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+20
2.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 20 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18END OF HALF3 plays · 1 yds · 0:242% → 2%
WAKEDrive 19PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:502% → 3%
CLEMDrive 20TD1 play · 70 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 0:571% → 1%
Q3 12:35
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
1.3%
Dom Maggio punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4699% → 99%
WAKEDrive 23FG7 plays · 72 yds · 2:001% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 1:2799% → 99%
WAKEDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:431% → 1%
Q3 5:40
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+52
1.1%
Dom Maggio punt for 52 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 26TD3 plays · 78 yds · 0:4299% → 99%
WAKEDrive 27PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:540% → 0%
Q3 2:31
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
0.3%
Dom Maggio punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 28TD1 play · 65 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 29PUNT10 plays · 24 yds · 3:080% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 30TD8 plays · 79 yds · 3:32100% → 100%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
0.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Justyn Ross for 2 yds to the Clem 34Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+41
0.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Lyn-J Dixon for 41 yds to the WFrst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
0.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Will Swinney for 5 yds to the WFrst 17Similar
Q4 10:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Diondre Overton for 2 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 31DOWNS8 plays · 45 yds · 3:450% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 32PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:37100% → 100%
Q4 4:13
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
0.2%
Hunter Renfrow punt for 42 yds , Alex Bachman returns for no gain to the WFrst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 33PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 2:040% → 0%
Q4 1:47
4TH & 8
OWN 23
+3
0.1%
Dom Maggio punt for 37 yds , Will Swinney returns for 3 yds to the Clem 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 34TD3 plays · 57 yds · 0:52100% → 100%
WAKEDrive 35Uncategorized2 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:53
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 55 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK)
-2.8
TD · Q2 13:16
Travis Etienne run for 3 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK)
-2.1
TD · Q2 0:30
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 20 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK)
-1.5