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PITT

Pittsburgh 14 at UCF 45

UCF
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:33 · Kirk Christodoulou punt for 46 yds , Otis Anderson returns for 12 yds to the UCF 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 85Pregame prior+21.3Home team on offense+15.5Score differential+10.2Garbage-time factor+2.5Blowout margin+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:52: McKenzie Milton run for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +1.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:07: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 24 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +2.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:50: McKenzie Milton run for 23 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +3.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 5:33: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +6.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:39: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 71 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +3.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:10PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:52PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:07PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.2
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:13UCF 4th & 15 at UCF 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:37UCF 4th & 1 at PITT 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.0%−1.4
    86% to make
    Punt
    80.1%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:33PITT 4th & 11 at PITT 24, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:07UCF 4th & 4 at PITT 4, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.4%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−2.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 38, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:39PITT 4th & 5 at UCF 15, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:01UCF 4th & 3 at PITT 30, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:01UCF 4th & 4 at PITT 4, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00PITT 4th & 13 at PITT 35, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6PITT made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 6:52UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:07UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:50UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:33UCF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:39UCF Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:17UCF Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:46PITT Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
83.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 11 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
83.6%
McKenzie Milton run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
83.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
83.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 35
+55
83.6%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PITTSBURGH 20 PITTSBURGH Penalty, roughing the kicker (10 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 39 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
83.4%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Pitt 11Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+14
83.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 14 yds to the Pitt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.4%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-14
83.4%
Pickett, K. pass complete to Araujo-Lopes, R for 7 yards to the UP35 (JOHNSON, Keenan), PENALTY UP pass interference (Ffrench, M.) 14 yards to the UP14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+6
83.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Tyler Sear for 6 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+28
83.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 28 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
83.3%
Kenny Pickett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 47Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 11
OWN 47
0
83.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+2
83.4%
Kenny Pickett run for 2 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q1 14:10
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
83.4%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 2:2982% → 84%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
82.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre Nixon for 6 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 4
OWN 23
0
82.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+5
81.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 5 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
82.1%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 23Similar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+4
82.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 11
OWN 27
-5
82.0%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 22Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 16
OWN 22
+4
82.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+64
81.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 64 yds to the Pitt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 12
OWN 26
+5
81.8%
MILTON, M. pass incomplete to COLUBIALE, M., PENALTY UP sideline interference 5 yards to the UCF31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
82.5%
McKenzie Milton run for no gain to the Pitt 5Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
83.5%
McKenzie Milton run for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
83.0%
Kenny Pickett run for no gain to the Pitt 25Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
83.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Tyler SearSimilar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+54
83.3%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 31 UCF Penalty, Offensive holding (Antwan Collier) to the UCF 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 1:4483% → 86%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
83.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 19Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 12
OWN 19
0
82.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+13
82.7%
McKenzie Milton run for 13 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
83.1%
MILTON, M. pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Mar., PENALTY UP roughing passer (Camp, K.) 15 yards to the UCF47, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
83.5%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+27
83.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Marlon Williams for 27 yds to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
86.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 24 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-6
85.0%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Randy Charlton for a loss of 6 yards to the Pitt 8Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 16
OWN 8
+13
85.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 13 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 3
OWN 21
0
85.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir Mack, broken up by Nevelle ClarkeSimilar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
85.2%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 41 yds , Otis Anderson returns for no gain to the UCF 38 Otis Anderson fumbled, forced by Jazzee Stocker,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1286% → 82%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
86.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
86.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-5
85.8%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Oluwaseun Idowu for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 1:13
4TH & 15
OWN 33
+86
81.8%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 53 yds , Rafael Araujo-Lopes returns for 86 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:2383% → 87%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
82.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 12 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
82.8%
MILTON, M. pass intercepted by Mack, T. at the UP22, Mack, T. return to the UP22, PENALTY UP holding (Mack, T.) 10 yards to the UCF47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
83.1%
McKenzie Milton run for 5 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+3
83.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+5
83.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 5 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
83.2%
MILTON, M. pass incomplete to DAVIS, Gabriel (Ford, P.), QB hurry by Folston, J., PENALTY UP personal foul (Watts, A.) 15 yards to the UP25, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
83.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Pitt 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
83.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+23
86.5%
McKenzie Milton run for 23 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9INT
12 plays · 46 yds · 0:0015% → 16%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.2%
Darrin Hall run for 1 yd to the Pitt 26Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
85.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Dontavius Butler-Jenkins for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 25Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
85.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 15 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
85.0%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
84.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 6 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
84.7%
Kenny Pickett run for 2 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
84.7%
Qadree Ollison run for 10 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
84.7%
Mychale Salahuddin run for 3 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+5
84.6%
Qadree Ollison run for 5 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+2
84.5%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+25
84.2%
Kenny Pickett pass intercepted Richie Grant return for 25 yds to the UCF 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 2:5187% → 95%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
87.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 8 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+3
87.6%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+35
87.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 35 yds to the Pitt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
87.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+6
87.8%
McKenzie Milton run for 6 yds to the Pitt 15Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+3
88.2%
McKenzie Milton run for 3 yds to the Pitt 12Similar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+9
87.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 9 yds to the Pitt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
88.4%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the Pitt 2Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Dontavius Butler-Jenkins, broken up by Brandon MooreSimilar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.3%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-3
93.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Qadree Ollison for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 24Similar
Q2 5:33
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+12
93.4%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 46 yds , Otis Anderson returns for 12 yds to the UCF 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12FG
17 plays · 54 yds · 3:4895% → 96%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
95.2%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
95.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+11
95.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Marlon Williams for 11 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
95.3%
MILTON, M. pass incomplete to NIXON, Tre (Motley, P.), PENALTY UP pass interference (Motley, P.) 15 yards to the UP31, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
95.3%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+21
95.3%
Taj McGowan run for 21 yds to the Pitt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
95.3%
Taj McGowan run for 5 yds to the Pitt 5Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-11
96.1%
MILTON, M. pass complete to COLUBIALE, M. for 5 yards to the UP0, clock 01:30, PENALTY UCF holding (BROWN, Jake) 11 yards to the UP16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
0
96.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+8
95.9%
MILTON, M. pass intercepted by Hamlin, D. at the UP9, Hamlin, D. return to the UCF3 (COLUBIALE, M.), PENALTY UP roughing passer 8 yards to the UP8, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
96.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Pitt 6Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
96.1%
McKenzie Milton run for 2 yds to the Pitt 4Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
95.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Gabriel Davis, broken up by Dane JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
95.8%
Matthew Wright 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
95.0%
Darrin Hall run for 9 yds to the Pitt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
94.8%
Qadree Ollison run for 13 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
94.5%
Qadree Ollison run for no gain to the Pitt 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
94.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice Ffrench, broken up by Nevelle ClarkeSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
94.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Rafael Araujo-LopesSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
94.8%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 34 yds, downed at the UCF 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15TD
2 plays · 72 yds · 0:4396% → 99%
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
95.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+71
99.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 71 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16DOWNS
12 plays · 52 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Dontavius Butler-Jenkins for 6 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+18
99.1%
Darrin Hall run for 18 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
99.1%
Darrin Hall run for 7 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+1
99.1%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+3
99.1%
Kenny Pickett run for 3 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
99.1%
Qadree Ollison run for 10 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
99.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Will Gragg for 10 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.0%
Darrin Hall run for no gain to the UCF 20Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+6
99.0%
Darrin Hall run for 6 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 4
OPP 14
-1
99.0%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Kyle Gibson and Nate Evans for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 15Similar
Q3 12:39
4TH & 5
OPP 15
-8
98.7%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Brendon Hayes for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17DOWNS
15 plays · 73 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
99.7%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
99.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete, broken up by Rashad WheelerSimilar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+19
99.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre Nixon for 19 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
99.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre Nixon for 3 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+16
99.7%
Greg McCrae run for 16 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
99.7%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-3
99.7%
Greg McCrae run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 36Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+6
99.7%
Taj McGowan run for 6 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+13
99.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 13 yds to the Pitt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
99.7%
Taj McGowan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 18Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+9
99.7%
MILTON, M. pass incomplete to DAVIS, Gabriel, PENALTY UP holding (Ford, P.) 9 yards to the UP9, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Gabriel Davis, broken up by Phillipie MotleySimilar
Q3 6:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
99.7%
Taj McGowan run for 5 yds to the Pitt 4Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q3 6:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Gabriel Davis, broken up by Phillipie MotleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT
12 plays · 31 yds · 1:070% → 0%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
99.8%
Kenny Pickett run for 3 yds to the Pitt 7Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 7
OWN 7
0
99.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes, broken up by Keenan JohnsonSimilar
Q3 1:07
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+10
99.8%
Pickett, K. pass incomplete to Smith, M., PENALTY UCF holding (MOORE, Brandon) 10 yards to the UP17, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
99.8%
A.J. Davis run for 8 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+3
99.8%
A.J. Davis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
99.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to George Aston for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+7
99.8%
A.J. Davis run for 7 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+4
99.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Will Gragg for 4 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
99.8%
A.J. Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 37
0
99.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Will GraggSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 37
-2
99.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to A.J. Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 35
+10
99.8%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 49 yds , Otis Anderson returns for 10 yds to the UCF 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:51100% → 100%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
99.9%
Greg McCrae run for 20 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
99.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 6
50
+11
99.9%
Greg McCrae run for 11 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for no gain Otis Anderson fumbled, forced by Therran Coleman, recovered by UCF Otis AndersonSimilar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+8
99.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 8 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+19
99.9%
Greg McCrae run for 7 yds to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, face mask (12 yards) (Saleem Brightwell) to the Pitt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
99.9%
UCF Penalty, false start (Cole Schneider) to the Pitt 17Similar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+4
99.9%
Bentavious Thompson run for 4 yds to the Pitt 13Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+13
99.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 13 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:310% → 0%
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
100.0%
A.J. Davis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
100.0%
Pickett, K. pass incomplete to Smith, M., PENALTY UCF pass interference (BROWN, Bryon) 15 yards to the UP44, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-9
100.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Dontavius Butler-Jenkins for 3 yds to the Pitt 47 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive holding (Tyler Sear) to the Pitt 35Similar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 19
OWN 35
+7
100.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Will Gragg for 7 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+58
99.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 58 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21END OF GAME
10 plays · 39 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
Bentavious Thompson run for 10 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.9%
Bentavious Thompson run for 1 yd to the UCF 36Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+15
99.9%
Bentavious Thompson run for 15 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.9%
Bentavious Thompson run for 4 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+11
99.9%
Bentavious Thompson run for 11 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
99.9%
MACK, Darriel rush for 7 yards to the UP27, out-of-bounds (Stocker, J.), PENALTY UCF holding (HARRIS, Jacob) 10 yards to the UP44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 20
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for no gain to the Pitt 44Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 20
OPP 44
+4
99.9%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 16
OPP 40
+4
99.9%
Bentavious Thompson run for 4 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:33
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)
+6.3
TD · Q2 14:50
McKenzie Milton run for 23 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)
+3.3
TD · Q3 12:39
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 71 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)
+3.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com