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FSU

Florida State 28 at Louisville 24

LOU
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:14 · Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Jacques Patrick
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Pregame prior−13.4Home team on offense+4.5Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:55: Jawon Pass pass complete to Micky Crum for 4 yds for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +5.0 pts (now 42%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:10: Jawon Pass pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 3 yds for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +10.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:39: Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 55 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +22.7 pts (now 37%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:55: Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 25 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +29.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 1:13: Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 58 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +61.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9FSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 9:33LOU 4th & 24 at FSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    39.0%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:08FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:13FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:09LOU 4th & 14 at LOU 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−1.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:15FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:48LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−1.0
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:14FSU 4th & 7 at LOU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    43.0%−1.4
    23% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:19LOU 4th & 4 at FSU 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:38FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:00FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 34, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:30LOU 4th & 10 at FSU 38, up 14
    Close callPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    76.7%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:35FSU 4th & 8 at FSU 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:48LOU 4th & 28 at LOU 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−3.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:21LOU 4th & 5 at FSU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    68.1%−9.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:00FSU 4th & 1 at LOU 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    15.0%−5.0
    25% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−3.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:06FSU 4th & 3 at LOU 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%−2.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−2.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:29LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−2.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:58FSU 4th & 17 at FSU 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−3.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:36LOU 4th & 9 at LOU 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.4%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 6:08LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:47FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:55LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:10LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:39FSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:55FSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.6%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.3%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:13FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
14 plays · 32 yds · 5:2229% → 31%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
28.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Linwood Foy) to the Lvile 17Similar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 15
OWN 17
-2
28.7%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 15Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 17
OWN 15
+2
28.8%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 15
OWN 17
+23
29.0%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 23 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
29.4%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
29.5%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Marcus Riley for 5 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+7
29.8%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 7 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
30.5%
Trey Smith run for no gain to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+16
30.6%
Jawon Pass run for 16 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
31.2%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Devante PeeteSimilar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
31.2%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Kemari AverettSimilar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 10
OPP 32
-14
31.0%
Jawon Pass sacked by DeCalon Brooks for a loss of 14 yards to the FlaSt 46 Jawon Pass fumbled, recovered by Lvile Jawon Pass , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 9:33
4TH & 24
OPP 46
0
30.8%
Mason King punt for 45 yds, downed at the FlaSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2569% → 68%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
31.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
31.1%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+3
31.3%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 4
OWN 7
0
31.7%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tre' McKittySimilar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 4
OWN 7
+3
32.0%
Logan Tyler punt for 32 yds , Rodjay Burns returns for 3 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 36 yds · 1:4733% → 37%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
32.5%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Micky Crum for 6 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+13
32.9%
Hassan Hall run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
33.1%
Hassan Hall run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
36.6%
Jawon Pass 14 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2164% → 68%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
35.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+10
35.3%
Tre'Shaun Harrison run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
35.5%
Cam Akers run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
35.2%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+7
36.0%
Cam Akers run for 7 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+28
36.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for 28 yds to the Lvile 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
35.7%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
32.0%
D. Francois pass,to N. Murray for 17 yds for a TD, (R. Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:2434% → 42%
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+42
33.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 42 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
35.8%
Trey Smith run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+6
36.1%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Micky Crum for 6 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
35.8%
Trey Smith run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
36.7%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Tutu Atwell for no gain to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+15
37.0%
Trey Smith run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
37.3%
Trey Smith run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
42.4%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Micky Crum for 4 yds for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2059% → 57%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
40.7%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 11
OWN 15
0
41.4%
Deondre Francois run for no gain to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 11
OWN 15
0
42.5%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tre' McKittySimilar
Q2 13:13
4TH & 11
OWN 15
+1
43.1%
Logan Tyler punt for 47 yds , Rodjay Burns returns for 1 yd to the Lvile 16 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Devante Peete) to the Lvile 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5643% → 43%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
42.6%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Micky Crum for 11 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
44.0%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Devante PeeteSimilar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
43.7%
Hassan Hall run for 6 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 4
OWN 46
-10
44.9%
Jawon Pass sacked by Marvin Wilson and Brian Burns for a loss of 10 yards to the Lvile 36Similar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 14
OWN 36
0
43.0%
Mason King punt for 46 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for no gain to the FlaSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:2956% → 54%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
44.0%
Jacques Patrick run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+23
43.5%
Jacques Patrick run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
42.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 5 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+1
43.0%
Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd to the Lvile 48Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
43.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 4
OPP 48
-5
45.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
46.2%
Logan Tyler punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2246% → 45%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
46.3%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
46.2%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
45.3%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Trey SmithSimilar
Q2 8:48
4TH & 10
OWN 20
-6
44.7%
Mason King punt for 32 yds , TEAM returns for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 42 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Lvile London IakopoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · 24 yds · 0:2349% → 50%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+24
48.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 24 yds to the FlaSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+50
50.3%
Hassan Hall run for no gain to the FSU 18, Hall fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Brian Burns, return for 14 yds to the FSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11DOWNS
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:3653% → 49%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
46.8%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-5
46.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+6
48.5%
Deondre Francois run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+14
48.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 14 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
46.7%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-1
47.0%
Deondre Francois run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 46Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
47.5%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to George CampbellSimilar
Q2 5:14
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
51.2%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Jacques PatrickSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5354% → 53%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
53.9%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Kemari AverettSimilar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
53.2%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Micky CrumSimilar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+6
52.4%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Micky Crum for 6 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q2 4:19
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
53.0%
Mason King punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:2248% → 46%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
52.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 12 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
52.2%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+2
52.3%
Nyqwan Murray run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
52.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 5
OWN 37
+9
54.2%
Logan Tyler punt for 42 yds , Rodjay Burns returns for 9 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 2:0855% → 68%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
54.8%
Jeremy Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 29Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+10
54.6%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 10 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+3
56.0%
Jeremy Smith run for 3 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
57.0%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 9 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 1
OPP 49
-2
57.7%
Jawon Pass run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 49Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+6
55.6%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 6 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+27
57.2%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Devante Peete for 27 yds to the FlaSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
58.0%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Micky Crum for 2 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 8
OPP 16
-6
58.2%
Jawon Pass sacked by Cory Durden for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 14
OPP 22
+15
55.0%
Pass, Jawon pass incomplete to Crum, Micky, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference 15 yards to the FLORIDAST7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q2 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
57.5%
Jawon Pass run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
68.2%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 3 yds for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
67.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4432% → 30%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
68.4%
Cam Akers run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-10
67.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+3
69.8%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
70.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 9 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 13:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
70.1%
Logan Tyler punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:1672% → 74%
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
72.3%
Hassan Hall run for 7 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+12
73.6%
Hassan Hall run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
74.8%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Kemari Averett for 11 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
75.1%
Hassan Hall run for no gain to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
75.7%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
74.9%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
73.8%
Mason King punt for 31 yds, downed at the FlaSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5026% → 23%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
74.5%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+2
75.7%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 10
OWN 7
+2
76.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Cam Akers for 2 yds to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q3 8:35
4TH & 8
OWN 9
+76
77.5%
Logan Tyler punt for 61 yds, downed at the LOUISVILLE 30 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Lvile 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 5:1279% → 86%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
78.6%
Hassan Hall run for 14 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
80.2%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+5
80.6%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Kemari Averett for 5 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+9
80.8%
Trey Smith run for 9 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
82.9%
Trey Smith run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 3
OPP 48
0
83.5%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+4
82.7%
Trey Smith run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
84.7%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-7
85.0%
Jawon Pass run for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 49 Jawon Pass fumbled, recovered by Lvile Hassan HallSimilar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 17
OWN 49
-11
84.2%
Jawon Pass sacked by Brian Burns for a loss of 11 yards to the Lvile 38 Jawon Pass fumbled, recovered by LvileSimilar
Q3 2:48
4TH & 28
OWN 38
+32
85.9%
Mason King punt for 49 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 32 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20TD
1 play · 55 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
63.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 55 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 1:5972% → 79%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.0%
Trey Smith run for 3 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
72.3%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+43
74.8%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 53 yds to the LOUISVILLE 19 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
78.5%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
78.5%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q3 0:59
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+5
77.1%
Trey Smith run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+42
78.7%
Blanton Creque 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 5:1523% → 46%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
77.5%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+9
77.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 9 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
76.5%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 13
OWN 43
0
79.7%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+12
80.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 12 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+2
78.4%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
76.8%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 48Similar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 15
OPP 48
-1
78.6%
Deondre Francois run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 49Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 16
OPP 49
+14
80.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 14 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 2
OPP 35
-1
78.1%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 36Similar
Q4 10:06
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+11
83.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 11 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
53.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 25 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:1867% → 67%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
66.7%
Pass, Jawon pass incomplete to Hall, Hassan, PENALTY FLORIDAST roughing passer 15 yards to the LOUISVILLE40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
69.5%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Micky Crum for 5 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-10
70.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 15
OWN 35
0
67.1%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Devante PeeteSimilar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+13
65.5%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Devante Peete for 13 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q4 7:40
4TH & 2
OWN 48
-5
68.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 7:29
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
66.6%
Mason King punt for 28 yds, downed at the FlaSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0639% → 32%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
61.5%
Nyqwan Murray run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-7
59.8%
Nyqwan Murray run for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 17
OWN 36
0
64.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 17
OWN 36
0
66.7%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 17
OWN 36
0
68.1%
Logan Tyler punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25INT
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:5371% → 91%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
70.8%
Trey Smith run for 10 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
72.7%
Trey Smith run for 3 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+1
75.2%
Jawon Pass run for 1 yd to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+21
77.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 21 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
82.2%
Trey Smith run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+5
87.3%
Trey Smith run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+7
88.2%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Micky Crum for 7 yds to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
90.5%
Jawon Pass pass intercepted A.J. Westbrook return for no gain to the FlaSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26TD
5 plays · 81 yds · 0:3625% → 91%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
75.4%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+19
75.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 19 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
73.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 4 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
70.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+58
9.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 58 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27INT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:1822% → 16%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
22.3%
Jawon Pass run for 1 yd to the Lvile 26Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
19.4%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q4 0:42
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
17.4%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q4 0:36
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
16.3%
Jawon Pass pass intercepted Stanford Samuels III return for no gain to the FlaSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 28Uncategorized
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
5.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:13
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 58 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
-61.8
TD · Q4 9:55
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 25 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
-29.8
TD · Q3 2:39
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 55 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
-22.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com