Try the model
VT

Virginia Tech 31 at Duke 14

DUKE
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · Wallace Wade Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:14 · Ryan Willis run for 1 yd to the Duke 10 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 154Home team on offense−23.7Pregame prior+2.2Score differential−10.0Garbage-time factor−10.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:34: Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 67 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +7.6 pts (now 46%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:05: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 30 — VT win probability +5.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:35: Steven Peoples run for 6 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +16.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:47: Deon Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Wareham KICK) — DUKE win probability +16.1 pts (now 31%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:08: Ryan Willis pass complete to Phil Patterson for 10 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +7.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 11 of 11VT made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 12:23DUKE 4th & 16 at DUKE 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:00VT 4th & 3 at DUKE 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:34VT 4th & 9 at DUKE 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:50DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:58DUKE 4th & 13 at VT 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    46.9%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:21VT 4th & 23 at VT 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−2.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:49DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    46.0%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:25DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:16VT 4th & 3 at VT 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−1.2
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:41VT 4th & 4 at VT 36, up 10
    Close callPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:49DUKE 4th & 1 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    38.0%−2.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:45DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:06VT 4th & 18 at VT 30, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−3.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:00DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:32VT 4th & 19 at VT 9, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−4.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:29DUKE 4th & 3 at VT 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    15.0%−1.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−3.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:14VT 4th & 1 at DUKE 11, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    79.1%−3.5
    87% to make
    Punt
    69.2%−13.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:29DUKE 4th & 17 at DUKE 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:41VT 4th & 5 at VT 35, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:54DUKE 4th & 6 at VT 36, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−0.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:00VT 4th & 1 at VT 45, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 3:25DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55VT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:34VT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:35VT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:47DUKE Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:08VT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 2:1865% → 65%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
64.9%
Brittain Brown run for 8 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+8
64.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 8 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
64.9%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+10
64.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 10 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
65.0%
Brittain Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 11
50
0
64.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 11
50
-5
64.8%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Robert Kraeling) to the Duke 45Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 16
OWN 45
0
64.7%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:23
4TH & 16
OWN 45
0
64.6%
Austin Parker punt for 32 yds, downed at the VTech 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:0835% → 36%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
64.6%
Steven Peoples run for 5 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
64.6%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+16
64.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 16 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
64.3%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Damon Hazelton) to the VTech 39Similar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+1
64.4%
Steven Peoples run for 1 yd to the VTech 40Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+13
64.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 13 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 1
OPP 47
-2
64.0%
Steven Peoples run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 49Similar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 3
OPP 49
+2
64.2%
Caleb Farley run for 2 yds to the Duke 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3INT
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:4265% → 65%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
65.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 7
50
+5
65.1%
Brittain Brown run for 5 yds to the VTech 45Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+4
65.1%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted Reggie Floyd return for 4 yds to the Duke 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:2136% → 37%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
63.6%
Deshawn McClease run for 6 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+12
63.4%
Deshawn McClease run for 12 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
63.4%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+1
63.4%
Deshawn McClease run for 1 yd to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+18
63.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Phil Patterson for 18 yds to the Duke 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
62.9%
Deshawn McClease run for 1 yd to the Duke 10Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
62.9%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Sean SavoySimilar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
63.3%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Eric KumahSimilar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+28
63.2%
Brian Johnson 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5063% → 67%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.1%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
62.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Deon Jackson for 1 yd to the Duke 26Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
62.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Noah Gray for 15 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
63.5%
Daniel Jones run for 10 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
63.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+15
63.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 15 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
64.1%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+10
64.1%
Daniel Jones run for 10 yds to the VTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
66.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Noah Gray for 23 yds for a TD, (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:2535% → 41%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
65.5%
Steven Peoples run for 1 yd to the VTech 25Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+11
65.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Peoples for 11 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
64.7%
Steven Peoples run for 1 yd to the VTech 37Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
64.8%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Hezekiah GrimsleySimilar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+18
65.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 18 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
63.8%
Hendon Hooker run for 1 yd to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+13
63.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 13 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
63.2%
Terius Wheatley run for 4 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+27
59.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 27 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0061% → 60%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
61.4%
Daniel Jones sacked by Ricky Walker for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 17Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+15
61.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 15 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
60.8%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-2
60.2%
Austin Parker punt for 53 yds , Damon Hazelton returns for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 13 Damon Hazelton fumbled, recovered by VTech Jovonn QuillenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8TD
4 plays · 87 yds · 1:1640% → 46%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
60.4%
Sean Savoy run for a loss of 5 yards to the VTech 8Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 15
OWN 8
+1
60.7%
Terius Wheatley run for 1 yd to the VTech 9Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 14
OWN 9
+24
61.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 24 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
53.6%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 67 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9MISSED FG
14 plays · 50 yds · 4:1952% → 48%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
52.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 11 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
52.4%
Brittain Brown run for 8 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+2
53.2%
Brittain Brown run for 2 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
52.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 7 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 3
OPP 47
-1
52.8%
Brittain Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 48Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+14
51.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 14 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
52.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+12
52.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 12 yds to the VTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
52.2%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Daniel Helm) to the VTech 27Similar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 15
OPP 27
0
51.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Scott BraceySimilar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 15
OPP 27
0
51.1%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 15
OPP 27
+2
49.5%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the VTech 25Similar
Q2 6:58
4TH & 13
OPP 25
+43
47.8%
Collin Wareham 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:3051% → 52%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
48.6%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 17 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
46.9%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Braxton Pfaff) to the VTech 32Similar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 20
OWN 32
-4
48.0%
Deshawn McClease run for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 28Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 24
OWN 28
0
47.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Deshawn McClease for no gain to the VTech 28Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 24
OWN 28
+1
48.2%
Ryan Willis run for 1 yd to the VTech 29Similar
Q2 4:21
4TH & 23
OWN 29
+1
48.4%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 49 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for 1 yd to the Duke 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 2:4246% → 41%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
46.1%
Brittain Brown run for no gain to the Duke 23Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
45.6%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+9
44.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 9 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 2:49
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+1
43.9%
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
44.3%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+3
43.2%
Daniel Jones run for 3 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
41.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 8
OWN 35
+7
40.7%
Austin Parker punt for 55 yds , C.J. Carroll returns for 7 yds to the VTech 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:4557% → 57%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
42.6%
Steven Peoples run for 5 yds to the VTech 22Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 5
OWN 22
0
41.6%
Steven Peoples run for no gain to the VTech 22Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+2
42.6%
Steven Peoples run for 2 yds to the VTech 24Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
43.2%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 45 yds, fair catch by T.J. Rahming at the Duke 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
37.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0858% → 59%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
41.8%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q3 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
42.1%
Deshawn McClease run for no gain to the VTech 30Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+6
42.6%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Chris Cunningham for 6 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q3 13:41
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
41.4%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 48 yds, fair catch by T.J. Rahming at the Duke 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:4040% → 38%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
39.7%
Brittain Brown run for 4 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+6
39.4%
Brittain Brown run for 6 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
39.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 24Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+17
38.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 17 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
40.0%
Brittain Brown run for no gain to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
39.2%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+5
38.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:49
4TH & 1
50
0
38.3%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:1164% → 80%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
50
0
36.4%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 10
50
+14
36.3%
Steven Peoples run for 14 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-6
36.0%
Sean Savoy pass incomplete VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Sean Savoy) to the Duke 42Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 16
OPP 42
+36
36.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 36 yds to the Duke 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
20.4%
Steven Peoples run for 6 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:3824% → 22%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
23.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 13 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
24.4%
Daniel Jones sacked by Houshun Gaines for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 34Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+4
22.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Deon Jackson for 4 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
22.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel HelmSimilar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
21.9%
Austin Parker punt for 40 yds, fair catch by C.J. Carroll at the VTech 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 3:2580% → 83%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
20.3%
Ryan Willis run for 5 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+2
19.8%
Deshawn McClease run for 2 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+8
19.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 8 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
17.4%
Hendon Hooker run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 37Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+3
17.1%
Ryan Willis run for 3 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-10
16.1%
Ryan Willis sacked by Lummie Young IV for a loss of 10 yards to the VTech 30Similar
Q3 4:06
4TH & 18
OWN 30
-2
16.9%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 42 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5218% → 18%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
18.4%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+5
17.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 5 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
18.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Davis KoppenhaverSimilar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
17.7%
Austin Parker punt for 49 yds, fair catch by C.J. Carroll at the VTech 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:1485% → 87%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
14.7%
Ryan Willis run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 15Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 13
OWN 15
0
12.6%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Eric KumahSimilar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 13
OWN 15
-5
13.0%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Yosuah Nijman) to the VTech 10Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 18
OWN 10
-1
12.9%
Steven Peoples run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 9 Steven Peoples fumbled, recovered by VTech Steven PeoplesSimilar
Q3 1:32
4TH & 19
OWN 9
0
12.8%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 40 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for no gain to the VTech 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:1518% → 31%
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
17.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 9 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 1
OPP 40
0
18.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for no gain to the VTech 40Similar
Q3 0:27
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
17.0%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
16.1%
Marvin Hubbard III run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 40Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+9
15.8%
Deon Jackson run for 9 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 3
OPP 31
0
16.3%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:29
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+29
15.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Deon Jackson for 29 yds to the VTech 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
14.5%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the VTech 1Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.5%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3273% → 95%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.6%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
26.9%
Deshawn McClease run for 4 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+33
23.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre Turner for 33 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
20.5%
Steven Peoples run for 3 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+15
19.6%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 15 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
17.6%
Steven Peoples run for 7 yds to the Duke 13Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+2
17.0%
Steven Peoples run for 2 yds to the Duke 11Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 1
OPP 11
0
15.7%
Ryan Willis run for no gain to the Duke 11Similar
Q4 9:14
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+1
16.7%
Ryan Willis run for 1 yd to the Duke 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
5.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Phil Patterson for 10 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:397% → 6%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
6.5%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Robert Kraeling) to the Duke 20Similar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
6.4%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
6.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-10
5.9%
Daniel Jones sacked by Houshun Gaines and Ricky Walker for a loss of 10 yards to the Duke 18Similar
Q4 7:29
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+2
5.6%
Austin Parker punt for 54 yds , C.J. Carroll returns for 2 yds to the VTech 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3995% → 96%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
4.9%
Deshawn McClease run for 1 yd to the VTech 31Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+4
4.7%
Deshawn McClease run for 4 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
4.2%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:41
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+1
3.8%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 44 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for 1 yd to the Duke 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:344% → 3%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
4.4%
Quentin Harris run for 4 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+3
3.4%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+31
3.2%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jake Bobo for 31 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
3.5%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Damond Philyaw-JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
3.4%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 5
OPP 35
-1
3.6%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Marvin Hubbard III for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 36Similar
Q4 2:54
4TH & 6
OPP 36
0
3.1%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Scott BraceySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 11 yds · 2:4598% → 99%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
2.3%
Steven Peoples run for 2 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+1
1.6%
Steven Peoples run for 1 yd to the VTech 39Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+6
1.6%
Ryan Willis run for 6 yds to the VTech 45Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+2
1.2%
Ryan Willis run for 2 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:47
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Wareham KICK)
+16.1
TD · Q3 9:35
Steven Peoples run for 6 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)
-16
TD · Q2 11:34
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 67 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)
-7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com