Speed4x
View as
Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreSYR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:46 · Sterling Hofrichter punt for 48 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:31: Eric Dungey run for 1 yd for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +6.0 pts (now 18%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- FG · Q3 4:09: Greg Huegel 43 yd FG GOOD — CLEM win probability +6.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:58: Eric Dungey run for 1 yd for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +17.7 pts (now 63%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:08: Travis Etienne run for 26 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +26.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q4 0:41: Travis Etienne run for 2 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +55.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 9SYR made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 9:49SYR 4th & 11 at CLEM 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.7% before the snapGo for it7.6%−0.124% to convertField goalTheir call7.7%80% to makePunt7.2%−0.4average punt
- Q1 8:26SYR 4th & 13 at CLEM 33, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.1% before the snapGo for it8.1%−0.121% to convertField goalTheir call8.1%49% to makePunt8.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:58CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 41, down 6Close callPunted · 91.0% before the snapGo for it91.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 5:05SYR 4th & 1 at SYR 14, up 6Close callPunted · 9.7% before the snapGo for it9.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.7%−0.2average punt
- Q1 0:00SYR 4th & 2 at SYR 33, down 1Close callPunted · 10.2% before the snapGo for it10.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 10:10CLEM 4th & 7 at SYR 30, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.1% before the snapGo for it88.1%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call88.1%56% to makePunt87.8%−0.2average punt
- Q2 4:40CLEM 4th & 12 at CLEM 45, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snapGo for it77.2%−0.923% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.2%average punt
- Q2 0:24SYR 4th & 4 at CLEM 14, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.0% before the snapGo for it27.9%−0.846% to convertField goalTheir call28.8%84% to makePunt23.9%−4.9average punt
- Q2 0:01CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 29, down 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call66.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt66.2%−0.6average punt
- Q3 10:54CLEM 4th & 22 at SYR 45, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snapGo for it60.9%−3.28% to convertField goal62.3%−1.925% to makePuntTheir call64.2%average punt
- Q3 9:31SYR 4th & 8 at SYR 37, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snapGo for it39.2%−1.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.4%average punt
- Q3 6:55SYR 4th & 14 at CLEM 42, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snapGo for it43.8%−1.919% to convertField goal44.4%−1.330% to makePuntTheir call45.7%average punt
- Q3 4:09CLEM 4th & 6 at SYR 25, down 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.9% before the snapGo for it51.9%−0.139% to convertField goalTheir call51.9%66% to makePunt40.5%−11.5average punt
- Q3 2:13CLEM 4th & 5 at SYR 20, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snapGo for it57.7%−0.640% to convertField goalTheir call58.2%75% to makePunt44.5%−13.7average punt
- Q3 0:00SYR 4th & 8 at SYR 39, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snapGo for it38.7%−1.634% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.3%average punt
- Q4 12:58SYR 4th & 1 at CLEM 1, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call43.6%59% to convertField goal36.9%−6.794% to makePunt20.1%−23.4average punt
- Q4 8:46SYR 4th & 6 at CLEM 48, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snapGo for it56.9%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.3%average punt
- Q4 6:48CLEM 4th & 16 at CLEM 31, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snapGo for it35.9%−5.515% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.4%average punt
- Q4 6:06SYR 4th & 9 at SYR 33, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snapGo for it58.3%−6.231% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.6%average punt
- Q4 2:38CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 48, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.4%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt25.5%−4.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 3SYR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 0:54CLEM Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.3%97% to makeGo for two89.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:31SYR Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.8%97% to makeGo for two18.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:58SYR Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.2%97% to makeGo for two65.9%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 11:08CLEM Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.4%97% to makeGo for two49.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:41CLEM Touchdown, up 3 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call80.5%−0.397% to makeGo for two80.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 1FG13 plays · 58 yds · 5:015% → 6%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
95.0%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sean Riley for 9 yds to the Clem 40Similar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
94.8%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Devin C. Butler for 3 yds to the Clem 34Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+18
94.6%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Moe Neal for 18 yds to the Clem 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2FUMBLE3 plays · 14 yds · 0:3294% → 94%
SYRDrive 3FG4 plays · -3 yds · 0:426% → 6%
Q1 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-3
93.8%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Moe Neal for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 1:1293% → 93%
SYRDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:407% → 8%
CLEMDrive 6TD11 plays · 60 yds · 4:0192% → 92%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
92.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 8 yds to the Syrac 41Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+11
92.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 11 yds to the Syrac 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
92.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 9 yds to the Syrac 21Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+12
92.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 12 yds to the Syrac 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
91.6%
Etienne, Travis rush for loss of 4 yards to the SYRACUSE13, PENALTY SYRACUSE face mask (Williams, McKinley) 5 yards to the SYRACUSE4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 7FUMBLE5 plays · 8 yds · 0:498% → 8%
CLEMDrive 8MISSED FG13 plays · 57 yds · 4:5092% → 90%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
91.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 7 yds to the Clem 20Similar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
91.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 9 yds to the Syrac 34Similar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
91.3%
Lawrence, Trevor pass complete to Kendrick, Derion for 13 yards to the SYRACUSE20, PENALTY CLEMSON ineligible downfield on pass (Simpson, John) 5 yards to the SYRACUSE38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+8
90.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tavien Feaster for 8 yds to the Syrac 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 9TD7 plays · 70 yds · 2:2110% → 18%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
89.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Taj Harris for 7 yds to the Syrac 37Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+51
89.4%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Taj Harris for 51 yds to the Clem 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
87.8%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Moe Neal for 12 yds to the Clem 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10PUNT9 plays · 20 yds · 2:3584% → 81%
Q2 6:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
82.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 5 yds to the Clem 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-6
83.6%
Trevor Lawrence sacked by Chris Slayton for a loss of 6 yards to the Clem 41Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 7
50
-5
82.4%
Trevor Lawrence sacked by Evan Foster for a loss of 5 yards to the Clem 45Similar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
80.5%
Will Spiers punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Sean Riley at the Syrac 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 11FG13 plays · 75 yds · 4:1019% → 29%
Q2 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
80.3%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Jamal Custis for no gain to the Syrac 11Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+31
80.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Jamal Custis for 31 yds to the Syrac 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
77.6%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Jamal Custis for 9 yds to the Clem 49Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
74.4%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Devin C. Butler for 11 yds to the Clem 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
73.6%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Devin C. Butler for 6 yds to the Clem 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12END OF HALF7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0972% → 72%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13PUNT11 plays · 30 yds · 3:5673% → 66%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
73.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 1 yd to the Syrac 32Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-3
72.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Travis Etienne for a loss of 3 yards to the Syrac 35Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 12
OPP 35
-10
69.2%
Chase Brice sacked by Kendall Coleman for a loss of 10 yards to the Syrac 45Similar
Q3 10:54
4TH & 22
OPP 45
0
65.6%
Will Spiers punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Sean Riley at the Syrac 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 1:1434% → 36%
Q3 10:18
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+20
64.9%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Jamal Custis for 20 yds to the Syrac 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
63.1%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sean Riley for 2 yds to the Syrac 37Similar
Q3 9:31
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
63.8%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15INT3 plays · 6 yds · 1:0563% → 59%
Q3 8:20
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+3
59.3%
Chase Brice pass intercepted Trill Williams return for 3 yds to the Clem 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 16PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2042% → 41%
Q3 7:03
3RD & 14
OPP 42
0
57.4%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Jamal Custis, broken up by Tanner MuseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17FG8 plays · 55 yds · 2:3958% → 64%
Q3 5:35
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+28
56.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 28 yds to the Syrac 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 18INT3 plays · 3 yds · 0:3242% → 44%
CLEMDrive 19FG4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5267% → 68%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 20FUMBLE6 plays · 14 yds · 2:0037% → 37%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
63.5%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 12 yds to the Syrac 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
61.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 5 yds to the Syrac 42Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
62.8%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 51 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for no gain to the Clem 10 Amari Rodgers fumbled, recovered by SyracSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 21TD4 plays · 10 yds · 2:0245% → 63%
CLEMDrive 22TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3735% → 64%
SYRDrive 23PUNT8 plays · 27 yds · 2:1448% → 56%
CLEMDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 11 yds · 1:5251% → 43%
SYRDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3462% → 62%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
37.9%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Dontae Strickland for 1 yd to the Syrac 33Similar
Q4 6:06
4TH & 9
OWN 33
+61
38.1%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Hunter Renfrow at the CLEMSON 12 CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (6 Yards) to the Clem 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 26TD15 plays · 94 yds · 5:1944% → 95%
Q4 2:38
4TH & 6
OWN 48
+20
33.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Tee Higgins for 20 yds to the Syrac 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 27Uncategorized6 plays · -7 yds · 0:2821% → 17%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
78.8%
Dungey, Eric rush for 7 yards to the SYRACUSE32, PENALTY SYRACUSE personal foul (Roberts, Aaron) 12 yards to the SYRACUSE13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 22
OWN 13
-8
78.6%
Eric Dungey sacked by Xavier Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the Syrac 5Similar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 30
OWN 5
+13
82.4%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Jamal Custis for 13 yds to the Syrac 18Similar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
83.4%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete SYRACUSE Penalty, Illegal Shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:41
Travis Etienne run for 2 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK)
+55.3
TD · Q4 11:08
Travis Etienne run for 26 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK)
+26.5
TD · Q4 12:58
Eric Dungey run for 1 yd for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK)
-17.7