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Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadCONN aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreCONN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:52 · Andre Szmyt 33 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:43: David Pindell run for 75 yds for a TD, (Michael Tarbutt KICK) — CONN win probability +0.9 pts (now 4%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:41: David Pindell pass complete to Zavier Scott for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Tarbutt KICK) — CONN win probability +2.4 pts (now 6%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:10: Eric Dungey run for 1 yd for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +2.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- FG · Q3 4:27: Andre Szmyt 27 yd FG GOOD — SYR win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:18: Marvin Washington pass complete to Tyler Davis for 26 yds for a TD (Michael Tarbutt KICK) — CONN win probability +1.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 7 of 9CONN made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 12:06SYR 4th & 1 at CONN 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.9%71% to convertField goal95.7%−0.256% to makePunt95.6%−0.3average punt
- Q1 9:15CONN 4th & 5 at CONN 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snapGo for it4.3%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.4%average punt
- Q1 6:24CONN 4th & 6 at CONN 29, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it4.2%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.2%average punt
- Q1 1:52SYR 4th & 8 at CONN 15, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snapGo for it95.5%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call95.6%83% to makePunt94.6%−1.0average punt
- Q2 5:16CONN 4th & 6 at CONN 24, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snapGo for it4.0%−0.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.2%average punt
- Q2 4:22SYR 4th & 12 at CONN 49, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snapGo for it95.8%−0.323% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.1%average punt
- Q2 3:06CONN 4th & 6 at CONN 14, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.439% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.2%average punt
- Q2 1:29SYR 4th & 14 at SYR 38, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snapGo for it95.3%−0.618% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.9%average punt
- Q2 0:18CONN 4th & 7 at CONN 25, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.635% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.4%average punt
- Q3 15:00SYR 4th & 10 at SYR 25, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snapGo for it95.1%−0.628% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.8%average punt
- Q3 10:35CONN 4th & 24 at CONN 21, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snapGo for it3.1%−1.46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.6%average punt
- Q3 10:35CONN 4th & 1 at CONN 34, down 24Close callPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it2.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%−0.2average punt
- Q3 4:27SYR 4th & 9 at CONN 9, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.4%−0.225% to convertField goalTheir call98.6%89% to makePunt97.1%−1.5average punt
- Q3 4:27CONN 4th & 1 at CONN 34, down 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 11:21CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 27, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:59SYR 4th & 3 at SYR 40, up 27Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 7:43SYR 4th & 3 at CONN 7, up 27Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%46% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%−0.191% to makePunt99.4%−0.6average punt
- Q4 5:36SYR 4th & 5 at SYR 10, up 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 3:46CONN 4th & 5 at CONN 44, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CONN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 9:15SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.6%97% to makeGo for two95.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:24SYR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.8%97% to makeGo for two95.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:53SYR Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:43CONN Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.3%97% to makeGo for two4.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:41CONN Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.9%97% to makeGo for two5.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:10SYR Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.4%97% to makeGo for two95.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:18CONN Touchdown, down 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.2%97% to makeGo for two1.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:21SYR Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCONNDrive 1FUMBLE8 plays · 42 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+29
97.0%
David Pindell pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 29 yds to the Syrac 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+12
97.0%
David Pindell pass complete to Tyler Davis for 12 yds to the Syrac 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
97.0%
David Pindell pass complete to Zavier Scott for 6 yds to the Syrac 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 24
-8
97.0%
David Pindell sacked by Antwan Cordy for a loss of 8 yards to the Syrac 33 David Pindell fumbled, recovered by Syrac Josh Black , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 2TD11 plays · 67 yds · 2:5197% → 96%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
96.5%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sean Riley for 5 yds to the Syrac 49Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+12
96.6%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 12 yds to the UConn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+12
96.5%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sean Riley for 12 yds to the UConn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+16
96.6%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 16 yds to the UConn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 9:15
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
96.4%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Sean Riley at the Syrac 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3096% → 97%
CONNDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.4%
David Pindell sacked by Alton Robinson for a loss of 5 yards to the UConn 20Similar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+9
96.5%
David Pindell pass complete to Zavier Scott for 9 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q1 6:24
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+41
96.5%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 54 yds , Sean Riley returns for 41 yds to the UConn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6TD3 plays · 42 yds · 0:5897% → 97%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
96.6%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Devin C. Butler for 13 yds to the UConn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+22
96.6%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sean Riley for 22 yds to the UConn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Gabe Horan for 7 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:004% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8FG7 plays · 53 yds · 1:5196% → 97%
CONNDrive 9TD12 plays · 84 yds · 5:114% → 6%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
96.5%
David Pindell sacked by Kielan Whitner for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 15Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
96.5%
David Pindell pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 13 yds to the Syrac 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
96.4%
David Pindell pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 9 yds to the Syrac 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+23
96.4%
David Pindell pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 23 yds to the Syrac 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+6
96.3%
David Pindell pass complete to Tyler Davis for 6 yds to the Syrac 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+15
96.4%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Syrac 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.0%
David Pindell pass complete to Zavier Scott for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Tarbutt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10TD9 plays · 70 yds · 2:3195% → 97%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+31
94.8%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Taj Harris for 31 yds to the UConn 11 for a 1ST down CONNECTICUT Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
94.8%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Jamal Custis for 5 yds to the UConn 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
96.4%
David Pindell sacked by Kendall Coleman for a loss of 7 yards to the UConn 13Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+7
96.4%
David Pindell pass complete to Zavier Scott for 7 yds to the UConn 20Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
96.4%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Sean Riley at the Syrac 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 12FUMBLE5 plays · 64 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
CONNDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
96.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 3 yds to the UConn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:134% → 4%
SYRDrive 16PUNT8 plays · -4 yds · 0:4197% → 97%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 25
OWN 27
0
96.6%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Jamal Custis, broken up by Shamel LazarusSimilar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 25
OWN 27
-7
96.6%
Eric Dungey sacked by Darrian Beavers for a loss of 7 yards to the Syrac 20Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 32
OWN 20
+18
96.8%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sean Riley for 18 yds to the Syrac 38Similar
Q2 1:29
4TH & 14
OWN 38
0
96.7%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Kyle Buss at the UConn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 1:033% → 3%
SYRDrive 18END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
CONNDrive 20PUNT RETURN TD7 plays · 5 yds · 3:224% → 2%
Q3 13:57
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+11
95.8%
David Pindell sacked by Alton Robinson for a loss of 4 yards to the UConn 20 for a 1ST down SYRACUSE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the UConn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 20
OWN 25
-4
96.1%
David Pindell pass complete to Zavier Scott for a loss of 4 yards to the UConn 21Similar
Q3 10:35
4TH & 24
OWN 21
+69
98.4%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 48 yds , Sean Riley returns for 69 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 27 yds · 0:002% → 2%
SYRDrive 22FG14 plays · 70 yds · 3:4598% → 100%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+22
98.4%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 22 yds to the UConn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+14
98.5%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sean Riley for 14 yds to the UConn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-15
98.5%
Eric Dungey run for no gain to the UConn 1 SYRACUSE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the UConn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 23TD11 plays · 75 yds · 5:090% → 2%
Q3 4:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
99.8%
David Pindell pass complete to Kyle Buss for 2 yds to the UConn 32Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
99.7%
David Pindell pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 2 yds to the UConn 34Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+26
98.5%
Marvin Washington pass complete to Tyler Davis for 26 yds for a TD (Michael Tarbutt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 24TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5799% → 100%
CONNDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
SYRDrive 26PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:01100% → 100%
CONNDrive 27FUMBLE1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-4
99.9%
Marvin Washington run for a loss of 4 yards to the UConn 14 Marvin Washington fumbled, recovered by Syrac Andrew ArmstrongSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 28FG4 plays · 7 yds · 1:03100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 29INT6 plays · 59 yds · 0:000% → 0%
SYRDrive 30PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 31PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 32END OF GAME3 plays · 12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:41
David Pindell pass complete to Zavier Scott for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Tarbutt KICK)
-2.4
TD · Q2 9:10
Eric Dungey run for 1 yd for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK)
+2.2
TD · Q4 14:18
Marvin Washington pass complete to Tyler Davis for 26 yds for a TD (Michael Tarbutt KICK)
-1.3