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PITT

Pittsburgh 35 at North Carolina 38

UNC
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:36 · Kirk Christodoulou punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+22.0+11.00−11.0−22.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Home team on offense+2.7Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Pregame prior−1.6Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:07: Darrin Hall run for 65 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +13.0 pts (now 51%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:35: Kenny Pickett pass complete to George Aston for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +10.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:17: Jordon Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +17.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:12: Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dyami Brown for 19 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +17.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:12: Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 16 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +29.0 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 7PITT made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00PITT 4th & 19 at PITT 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:02UNC 4th & 1 at PITT 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    45.5%−0.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:02PITT 4th & 2 at UNC 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    51.2%−0.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    51.3%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:02PITT 4th & 1 at UNC 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    51.3%−0.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    50.2%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:36PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:48UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:27UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−2.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:07PITT 4th & 8 at PITT 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−2.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:13PITT 4th & 22 at PITT 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−5.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:36UNC 4th & 6 at PITT 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    67.4%−8.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00PITT 4th & 11 at PITT 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−2.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:20UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:07PITT 4th & 11 at PITT 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−1.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:07UNC 4th & 21 at PITT 21, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−1.8
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    87.4%−3.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 7:02UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:31PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:36UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:56PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:56UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:07PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:35PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:17UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:12UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:12PITT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.0 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.3%−2.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 13 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 3 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
47.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to George Aston for 8 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
47.8%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Pitt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+8
47.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 8 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
47.8%
Kenny Pickett run for 2 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
47.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to George Aston for 8 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 45
-14
47.8%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 14 yards to the Pitt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 41
-3
47.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Darrin Hall for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 38
0
47.8%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 2:4949% → 53%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
49.0%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 13 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
49.4%
Antonio Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+10
49.3%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Michael Carter for 10 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
49.6%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
49.5%
Jordon Brown run for 6 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+3
49.5%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Antonio Williams for 3 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q1 7:02
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+37
52.7%
Antonio Williams run for 37 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3148% → 52%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
52.5%
Qadree Ollison run for 28 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
51.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
51.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+8
52.1%
Kenny Pickett run for 8 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q1 7:02
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+9
52.1%
Kenny Pickett run for 9 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
51.2%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
51.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to George AstonSimilar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+6
51.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 6 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q1 7:02
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+1
51.9%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
51.1%
Qadree Ollison run for 13 yds to the NCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
47.7%
Kenny Pickett run for 7 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5550% → 58%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
50.4%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 18 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
51.4%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 5 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
51.6%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+37
51.2%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 37 yds to the Pitt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
52.1%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+9
52.1%
Jordon Brown run for 9 yds to the Pitt 6Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+5
52.3%
Antonio Williams run for 5 yds to the Pitt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.1%
Antonio Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.2%
Darrin Hall run for 5 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q2 14:36
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
56.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:36
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
57.0%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6FUMBLE
4 plays · 34 yds · 0:0057% → 58%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
57.3%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dyami Brown for 13 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
58.3%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the NCaro 44Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+7
58.2%
Anthony Ratliff-Williams run for 7 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+9
57.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 9 yds Anthony Ratliff-Williams fumbled, forced by Dane Jackson, recovered by Pitt Cam BrightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:4643% → 53%
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
56.9%
Mychale Salahuddin run for 23 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
55.7%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+9
55.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 9 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
54.6%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
54.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Rafael Araujo-LopesSimilar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+14
58.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 14 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
57.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 11 yds to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
46.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0053% → 66%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.3%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
53.2%
Antonio Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 22Similar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+16
52.2%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 16 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
54.4%
Antonio Williams run for 14 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
55.7%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+15
55.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, personal foul (Amir Watts) to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
65.8%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Michael Carter for 31 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 2:4337% → 51%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
63.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to George AstonSimilar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
63.1%
Mychale Salahuddin run for 9 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
62.7%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the Pitt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
62.7%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+6
62.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to George Aston for 6 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+65
49.2%
Darrin Hall run for 65 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1954% → 52%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.4%
Jordon Brown run for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
54.2%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+1
53.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for 1 yd to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+12
52.4%
Hunter Lent punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 44 , Rafael Araujo-Lopes returns for 12 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 1:0052% → 67%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
48.3%
Maurice Ffrench run for 2 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+5
48.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 5 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+5
47.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 5 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+42
46.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 42 yds to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
45.6%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd to the NCaro 1Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to George Aston for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0840% → 38%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
39.7%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Michael Carter for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 21Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
38.7%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams, broken up by Jazzee StockerSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+7
37.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 7 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+9
37.6%
Hunter Lent punt for 45 yds , Rafael Araujo-Lopes returns for 9 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
35.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
38.2%
Antonio Williams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
40.1%
Antonio Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
39.0%
Nathan Elliott run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+60
37.4%
Hunter Lent punt for 50 yds PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive holding (Rashad Weaver) to the Pitt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
36.6%
Qadree Ollison run for no gain to the Pitt 8Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+9
36.8%
Kenny Pickett run for 9 yds to the Pitt 17Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+3
36.9%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the Pitt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
36.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Darrin HallSimilar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
36.3%
Mychale Salahuddin run for 2 yds to the Pitt 22Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
37.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q3 13:07
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
38.2%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 34 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for no gain to the NCaro 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:3639% → 60%
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
38.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Michael Carter for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+5
37.7%
Jordon Brown run for 5 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+5
38.4%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, offside defense (Dewayne Hendrix) to the Pitt 47Similar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
40.0%
Antonio Williams run for 3 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
40.4%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 9 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+15
41.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 15 yds to the Pitt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+19
41.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Garrett Walston for 19 yds to the Pitt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.8%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0049% → 46%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
51.0%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Pitt 22Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
51.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Rafael Araujo-LopesSimilar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 9
OWN 22
-13
52.6%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Cole Holcomb for a loss of 13 yards to the Pitt 9Similar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 22
OWN 9
+2
54.5%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 37 , Dazz Newsome returns for 2 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 1:3659% → 77%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-7
59.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the Pitt 44 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NCaro Antonio WilliamsSimilar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 17
OPP 44
0
56.9%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 17
OPP 44
+21
55.4%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 21 yds to the Pitt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
60.3%
Antonio Williams run for 4 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+19
77.4%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dyami Brown for 19 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:2877% → 80%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
77.1%
Jordon Brown run for 8 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 2
OPP 35
-2
77.5%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 37Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+14
76.2%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 14 yds to the Pitt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
77.5%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
77.4%
Antonio Williams run for 4 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
76.3%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:36
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+37
80.2%
Freeman Jones 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:3621% → 16%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
79.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, illegal shift (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 20Similar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
79.4%
Darrin Hall run for 5 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-12
79.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Kenny Pickett for a loss of 12 yards to the Pitt 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+11
83.6%
Kenny Pickett run for 11 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+43
84.1%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the UNC 43 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Johnathon Sutton) to the NCaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:4883% → 84%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
82.5%
Michael Carter run for 11 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
83.7%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the NCaro 45Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
83.5%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
84.8%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q4 13:20
4TH & 9
OWN 45
+6
84.4%
Hunter Lent punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 15 , Rafael Araujo-Lopes returns for 6 yds to the Pitt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
85.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 4 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+2
85.3%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+15
85.9%
Kenny Pickett run for 15 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
84.0%
Qadree Ollison run for 8 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 2
OWN 44
-9
82.8%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Jalen Dalton for a loss of 9 yards to the Pitt 35Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
85.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir Mack, broken up by Cole Holcomb PITTSBURGH Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 13:07
4TH & 11
OWN 35
-4
86.2%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 46 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24MISSED FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 4:5587% → 92%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+18
86.7%
Antonio Williams run for 18 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
87.1%
Nathan Elliott run for 1 yd to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 9
OWN 34
-3
87.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jake Bargas for 7 yds to the NCaro 41 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Anthony Ratliff-Williams) to the NCaro 31Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+16
86.7%
Michael Carter run for 16 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+47
88.0%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 47 yds to the Pitt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
88.8%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 8Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
88.8%
Carter, M rush up middle for 1 yard to the UP7 (Wheeler, R.;Idowu, O.), PENALTY NC illegal formation 5 yards to the UP13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+2
88.5%
Antonio Williams run for 2 yds to the Pitt 11Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-10
87.8%
Nathan Elliott sacked by Patrick Jones II for a loss of 10 yards to the Pitt 21Similar
Q4 5:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 21
+38
91.7%
Freeman Jones 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 25TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 1:557% → 39%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
92.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Rafael Araujo-LopesSimilar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+34
92.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 34 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
90.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 9 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 1
OPP 36
0
90.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+10
90.4%
Qadree Ollison run for 10 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
89.6%
Kenny Pickett run for 10 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
89.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
60.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 16 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26END OF GAME
12 plays · 27 yds · 1:4183% → 90%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
82.7%
Antonio Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+3
83.5%
Nathan Elliott run for 3 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+12
87.2%
Anthony Ratliff-Williams run for 12 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
90.0%
Antonio Williams run for 2 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+15
90.7%
Antonio Williams run for 15 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
91.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 32Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 11
OPP 32
-5
91.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 37Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 16
OPP 37
-1
90.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:12
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 16 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)
-29
TD · Q3 7:17
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)
+17.9
TD · Q3 4:12
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dyami Brown for 19 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)
+17.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com