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LOU

Louisville 3 at Virginia 27

UVA
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:43 · Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Lvile 11 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 2:23: Hunter Pearson 24 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +4.2 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 2:23: Jeremy Smith run for no gain to the Lvile 37 — LOU win probability +4.4 pts (now 33%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 11:44: Jeremy Smith run for 1 yd to the Virg 2 — LOU win probability +5.7 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  4. TD · Q3 5:47: Bryce Perkins pass complete to Chris Sharp for 3 yds for a TD (Hunter Pearson KICK) — UVA win probability +12.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:08: Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 44 yds for a TD (Hunter Pearson KICK) — UVA win probability +9.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:36UVA 4th & 15 at LOU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    63.6%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:36LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:36LOU 4th & 5 at UVA 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    35.8%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:35UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:46UVA 4th & 2 at LOU 10, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%
    55% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.2%−0.5
    88% to make
    Punt
    60.4%−3.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:46LOU 4th & 2 at UVA 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    34.8%−1.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:23UVA 4th & 5 at LOU 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    59.8%−5.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:23LOU 4th & 8 at LOU 39, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:45LOU 4th & 3 at UVA 3, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.8%−1.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−11.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:08LOU 4th & 15 at LOU 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:14UVA 4th & 2 at midfield, up 17
    Close callPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:14LOU 4th & 20 at UVA 45, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q3 5:47UVA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 13:08UVA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 6:14UVA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.0%
Dae Williams run for no gain to the Lvile 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
65.0%
Dae Williams run for 6 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
65.0%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
65.0%
Mason King punt for 45 yds , Chuck Davis returns for no gain to the Virg 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2MISSED FG
8 plays · 61 yds · 3:0665% → 65%
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
64.9%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
64.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tanner Cowley for 6 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+35
64.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to De'Vante Cross for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Khane Pass) to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+25
65.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tavares Kelly for 25 yds to the Lvile 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
65.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Lvile 8Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-7
65.1%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Tabarius Peterson and Dee Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 15Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
65.0%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
64.7%
A.J. Mejia 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:0035% → 36%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
64.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 8 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+11
64.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 11 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
64.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 5 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+3
64.2%
Jeremy Smith run for 3 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+1
64.3%
Jeremy Smith run for 1 yd to the Lvile 48Similar
Q1 10:36
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+1
64.5%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
64.2%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 48Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+7
64.4%
Malik Cunningham run for 7 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 4
OPP 45
-1
64.2%
Jeremy Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 46Similar
Q1 10:36
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
64.5%
Mason King punt for 39 yds, downed at the Virg 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
63.9%
Jordan Ellis run for no gain to the Virg 7Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+8
63.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 8 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+6
63.5%
Bryce Perkins run for 6 yds to the Virg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
64.0%
Jordan Ellis run for 5 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 5
OWN 26
-9
64.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, illegal block (-9 Yards) to the Virg 17Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 14
OWN 17
0
63.9%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise DuboisSimilar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 14
OWN 17
+8
63.4%
Bryce Perkins run for 8 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q1 4:35
4TH & 6
OWN 25
+4
63.2%
Lester Coleman punt for 41 yds , Rodjay Burns returns for 4 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5INT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0738% → 38%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
62.3%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
62.4%
Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+8
62.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jeremy Smith for 8 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
61.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marcus Riley for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+23
62.1%
Malik Cunningham pass intercepted Charles Snowden return for 23 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 3:2666% → 65%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
65.7%
Bryce Perkins run for 7 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+7
65.7%
Bryce Perkins run for 7 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
65.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Lvile 14Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 6
OPP 14
-1
65.7%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 15Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+5
65.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 5 yds to the Lvile 10Similar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+28
65.2%
Hunter Pearson 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7DOWNS
11 plays · 38 yds · 0:0035% → 36%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
65.0%
Trey Smith run for 11 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
64.4%
Trey Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 34Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+6
65.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 6 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+6
64.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 6 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
63.4%
Trey Smith run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 6
50
+6
63.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Trey Smith for 6 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
63.1%
Malik Cunningham run for 3 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+5
63.1%
Jeremy Smith run for 5 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 2
OPP 36
0
63.1%
Dae Williams run for no gain to the Virg 36Similar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 2
OPP 36
-1
64.2%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8FG
9 plays · 57 yds · 3:2166% → 72%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
66.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Evan Butts for 10 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
67.4%
Bryce Perkins run for 8 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 2
OPP 45
0
67.9%
Hasise Dubois pass incomplete to Bryce PerkinsSimilar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+34
67.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 34 yds to the Lvile 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
68.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Lvile 8Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+2
68.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Lvile 6Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
67.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Hasise Dubois, broken up by Cornelius SturghillSimilar
Q2 2:23
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
71.5%
Hunter Pearson 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
67.3%
Jeremy Smith run for no gain to the Lvile 37Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
67.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd to the Lvile 38Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+1
68.1%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd to the Lvile 39Similar
Q2 2:23
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+4
69.4%
Mason King punt for 40 yds , Chuck Davis returns for 4 yds to the Virg 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the Virg 26Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
70.8%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+3
69.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Virg 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11INT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
71.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 8 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 27
0
72.8%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+10
71.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 10 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
72.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Hasise Dubois) to the Virg 27Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 27
0
71.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for no gain to the Virg 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 27
+3
71.6%
Bryce Perkins run for 3 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+34
70.6%
Bryce Perkins pass intercepted Rodjay Burns return for 34 yds to the Virg 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5935% → 37%
Q3 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
64.9%
Jeremy Smith run for 1 yd to the Virg 2Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
64.9%
Jeremy Smith run for no gain to the Virg 2Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
66.4%
Trey Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 3Similar
Q3 9:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
63.4%
Blanton Creque 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 3:5867% → 83%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
67.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-1
68.3%
Bryce Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 35Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+14
66.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Evan Butts for 14 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+36
69.5%
Bryce Perkins run for 36 yds to the Lvile 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
70.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 10 yds to the Lvile 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
70.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Lvile 3Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
83.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Chris Sharp for 3 yds for a TD (Hunter Pearson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14INT
10 plays · 37 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
80.5%
Trey Smith run for 11 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
79.6%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 18 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
77.8%
Trey Smith run for 1 yd to the Virg 45Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+2
77.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Trey Smith for 2 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+15
78.2%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 15 yds to the Virg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
76.3%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Micky CrumSimilar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-10
76.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive holding (Lukayus McNeil) to the Virg 38Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 20
OPP 38
+19
78.7%
Jawon Pass pass intercepted Bryce Hall return for 19 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.3%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Jaylen Smith, broken up by Charles SnowdenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 4:0784% → 96%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
83.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Jordan Ellis for 11 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
84.2%
Bryce Perkins run for 3 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-9
84.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Lamont Atkins for 1 yd to the Virg 47 VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Jordan Ellis) to the Virg 43Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 16
OWN 43
+6
83.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 6 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+11
85.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 11 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
86.4%
Bryce Perkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 42
-2
86.0%
Bryce Perkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 44Similar
Q4 13:08
3RD & 14
OPP 44
+44
95.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 44 yds for a TD (Hunter Pearson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
95.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jordan Davis) to the Lvile 13Similar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+17
95.0%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Trey Smith for 17 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
94.7%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jeremy Smith for 3 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
94.7%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Jaylen Smith, broken up by Charles SnowdenSimilar
Q4 13:08
4TH & 15
OWN 25
+6
95.2%
Mason King punt for 52 yds , Chuck Davis returns for 6 yds to the Virg 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
96.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 13 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
96.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
96.2%
Jordan Ellis run for no gain to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
96.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus VIRGINIA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 11:14
4TH & 7
OWN 45
+5
95.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:14
4TH & 2
50
+9
96.0%
Lester Coleman punt for 37 yds , Rodjay Burns returns for 9 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18Uncategorized
1 play · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
96.3%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Dez Fitzpatrick, broken up by Juan ThornhillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 2:2697% → 99%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
96.7%
Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+3
96.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+10
96.6%
Jordan Ellis run for 10 yds to the Lvile 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.3%
Bryce Perkins run for 8 yds for a TD (Hunter Pearson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 54 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+11
99.3%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Devante Peete for 11 yds to the Lvile 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+11
99.3%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 11 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+9
99.2%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 9 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
99.2%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 9 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+18
99.2%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 18 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.1%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
99.1%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Jaylen Smith, broken up by Darrius BrattonSimilar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
99.2%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q4 6:14
4TH & 10
OPP 35
-5
99.2%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Trey Smith) to the Virg 40Similar
Q4 6:14
4TH & 15
OPP 40
-5
99.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Trey Smith) to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 6:14
4TH & 20
OPP 45
0
99.3%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Trey SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21END OF GAME
10 plays · 44 yds · 1:47100% → 100%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
99.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+7
99.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 7 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
99.5%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+5
99.7%
Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
99.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
99.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 11 yds to the Lvile 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
99.7%
Tavares Kelly run for 8 yds to the Lvile 14Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+3
99.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Lvile 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:47
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Chris Sharp for 3 yds for a TD (Hunter Pearson KICK)
+12.2
TD · Q4 13:08
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 44 yds for a TD (Hunter Pearson KICK)
+9.6
KEY PLAY · Q3 11:44
Jeremy Smith run for 1 yd to the Virg 2
-5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com