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NIU

Northern Illinois 19 at Florida State 37

FSU
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:20 · Logan Tyler punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 176Pregame prior+3.5Home team on offense+23.2Garbage-time factor+13.7Score differential+4.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.1Time remaining−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:01: Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 20 yds for a TD (Andrew Gantz KICK) — NIU win probability +5.8 pts (now 22%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Ricky Aguayo 50 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:48: Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 66 yds for a TD NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 8 (Two-Point Conversion failed) — NIU win probability +6.5 pts (now 14%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:13: Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 78 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +8.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:01: Marcus Childers run for 11 yds for a TD (Andrew Gantz intercepted ) — NIU win probability +6.3 pts (now 10%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7NIU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 8:32NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:34NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:05FSU 4th & 1 at NIU 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    79.0%−1.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    78.9%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:51NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:46FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:49NIU 4th & 10 at midfield, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:58FSU 4th & 9 at NIU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−3.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:19NIU 4th & 12 at NIU 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:29NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 33, down 13
    Close callPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:09FSU 4th & 15 at FSU 15, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:00NIU 4th & 3 at midfield, down 13
    Close callPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:27FSU 4th & 3 at NIU 25, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.6%−0.8
    66% to make
    Punt
    84.1%−6.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:40FSU 4th & 12 at FSU 42, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−1.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:36NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:50NIU 4th & 9 at FSU 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−5.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:26NIU 4th & 5 at FSU 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−0.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:20FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 42, up 11
    Close callPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:01NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 35, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 9:53FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:13FSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:01NIU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:48NIU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    16.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    16.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:13FSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:12FSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:5480% → 81%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
80.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for 19 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
80.0%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+3
79.9%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+3
79.9%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
79.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for 3 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
79.8%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Keith Gavin, broken up by Jalen EmbrySimilar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+11
79.7%
Cam Akers run for 11 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
79.7%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the NoIll 28Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+12
79.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 12 yds to the NoIll 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
79.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for 11 yds to the NoIll 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
79.4%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 8Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
80.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 8 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5620% → 20%
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
80.1%
Marcus Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 23Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
80.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 4 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
80.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Corey Lersch for no gain to the NoIll 27Similar
Q1 8:32
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+43
80.3%
Matt Ference punt for 48 yds NORTHERNIL Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:3880% → 83%
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
80.2%
Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+30
80.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 30 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
80.6%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+12
80.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 12 yds to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
80.6%
Jacques Patrick run for 8 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+9
80.7%
Jacques Patrick run for 9 yds to the NoIll 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
80.7%
Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd to the NoIll 7Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
83.4%
Cam Akers run for 7 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3418% → 17%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.3%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.3%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 2 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
82.5%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Corey LerschSimilar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
82.6%
Matt Ference punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5FUMBLE
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:0983% → 84%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
83.1%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+8
83.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 8 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
83.8%
Deondre Francois run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+5
83.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 5 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
84.0%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 47Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 11
OPP 47
-1
84.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 48Similar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 12
OPP 48
+11
83.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 11 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q1 1:05
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+2
83.6%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the NoIll 35 Jacques Patrick fumbled, forced by Vinny Labus, recovered by NoIll Matt LorbeckSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5517% → 17%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
82.7%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
82.8%
Marcus Childers run for 3 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
82.8%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+11
83.0%
Matt Ference punt for 40 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 11 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:3784% → 84%
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
84.1%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+11
84.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for 11 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
84.8%
Deondre Francois run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+4
84.9%
Deondre Francois run for 4 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 3
OPP 47
-7
84.7%
Nyqwan Murray run for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 10
OWN 46
+8
84.0%
Logan Tyler punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 26 , Cole Tucker returns for 8 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:1717% → 16%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
83.4%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 6 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+4
83.3%
Jordan Nettles run for 4 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
83.4%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 4 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
83.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 5 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+5
83.0%
Jordan Nettles run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
50
0
83.0%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Jauan Wesley, broken up by Cyrus FaganSimilar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 10
50
0
83.6%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Jauan Wesley, broken up by Asante Samuel Jr.Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 10
50
0
83.8%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 10
50
0
84.1%
Matt Ference punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9FUMBLE
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:0285% → 84%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
84.9%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+3
85.0%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 5
OWN 9
+8
84.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 8 yds to the FlaSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-6
84.9%
Deondre Francois sacked by Lance Deveaux Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 16
OWN 11
-3
84.9%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 19
OWN 8
+11
84.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 11 yds Tre' McKitty fumbled, forced by Trayshon Foster, recovered by NoIll Antonio Jones-Davis , return for no gain to the FlaSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10TD
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:4417% → 22%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
83.0%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
83.4%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+20
77.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 20 yds for a TD (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 1:4280% → 81%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
80.3%
Jacques Patrick run for no gain to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+39
80.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for 39 yds to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
81.7%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tre' McKitty, broken up by Marcus KellySimilar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
81.6%
Deondre Francois run for 1 yd to the NoIll 25Similar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
80.8%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q2 3:58
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+42
80.8%
Ricky Aguayo 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:3919% → 18%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
81.1%
Marcus Childers run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 19 Marcus Childers fumbled, recovered by NoIll Marcus ChildersSimilar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
81.5%
Marcus Childers run for no gain to the NoIll 19Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+4
82.4%
Jordan Nettles run for 4 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+15
82.5%
Matt Ference punt for 41 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 15 yds to the FlaSt 38 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the FlaSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13FG
13 plays · 26 yds · 1:4883% → 87%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
82.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 1
50
+2
82.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
83.2%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+10
83.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for 10 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
83.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 8 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 2
OPP 30
0
83.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tre' McKitty, broken up by Antonio Jones-DavisSimilar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+17
82.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 17 yds to the NoIll 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
83.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-20
83.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 20 yards to the NoIll 33 TEAM fumbled,Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 30
OPP 33
+50
87.3%
Ricky Aguayo 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:5514% → 14%
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.0%
Marcus Jones run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
85.7%
CHILDERS, Marcu sideline pass incomplete to BROWN, D.J., PENALTY FS OF 5 yards to the NIU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
85.2%
Marcus Childers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 33 Marcus Childers fumbled, recovered by NoIll Marcus ChildersSimilar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
85.8%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
86.1%
Matt Ference punt for 37 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for no gain to the FlaSt 33 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Adarius Dent) to the FlaSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5888% → 87%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
87.9%
Cam Akers run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-7
88.1%
Deondre Francois run for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 20 Deondre Francois fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Cole MinshewSimilar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-5
87.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
87.5%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tre' McKitty FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
87.0%
Logan Tyler punt for 54 yds, downed at the NoIll 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5414% → 13%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
86.3%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer Tears, broken up by A.J. WestbrookSimilar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
86.6%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+8
87.3%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 8 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
86.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Corey Lersch for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 3
50
0
86.2%
Tre Harbison run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 3
50
0
86.8%
Tre Harbison run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 3
50
0
87.4%
Matt Ference punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:4989% → 93%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
89.3%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
89.4%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+32
89.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 32 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
90.5%
Cam Akers run for 9 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+4
90.5%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
91.1%
Anthony Grant run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 33Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+8
91.3%
Cam Akers run for 8 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
91.3%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 4:27
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+42
93.3%
Ricky Aguayo 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:278% → 14%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
91.7%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 12 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-11
91.5%
Marcus Childers sacked by Kyle Meyers for a loss of 11 yards to the NoIll 26Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 21
OWN 26
+3
92.3%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 3 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 18
OWN 29
+5
92.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, (5 Yards) to the NoIll 34Similar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+66
85.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 66 yds for a TD NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 8 (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:4786% → 86%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
85.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+5
86.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 5 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q3 1:27
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+4
86.6%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
87.9%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 11
OWN 43
0
88.0%
Jacques Patrick run for no gain to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 43
-5
87.2%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 16
OWN 38
+4
87.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 4 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q4 14:40
4TH & 12
OWN 42
0
86.3%
Logan Tyler punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3413% → 11%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
87.1%
Marcus Childers run for 2 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-1
87.2%
Marcus Childers sacked by Fredrick Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 24Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
88.1%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
88.6%
Matt Ference punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21FUMBLE
2 plays · -15 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
88.3%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 15
OWN 38
-11
87.8%
Deondre Francois sacked by Sutton Smith for a loss of 11 yards to the FlaSt 28 Deondre Francois fumbled, recovered by NoIll Quintin Wynne , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22MISSED FG
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:3317% → 14%
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
82.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 11 yds to the FlaSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
82.9%
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
82.9%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 9
OPP 16
0
85.0%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q4 10:50
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+33
86.3%
Andrew Gantz 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:2288% → 97%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
88.1%
Nyqwan Murray run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+78
96.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 78 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:334% → 4%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
96.5%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 27 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
96.2%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer Tears, broken up by Levonta TaylorSimilar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
96.3%
CHILDERS, Marcu deep pass incomplete to TEARS, Spencer, PENALTY FS offside defense (Janarius Robinson) 5 yards to the FS43, NO PLAY, clock 09:33.Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
96.0%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
96.4%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer Tears NORTHERNIL Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:26
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
96.4%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0597% → 97%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
96.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+17
97.3%
Deondre Francois pass intercepted Cortez Hogans return for 17 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 26TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 0:534% → 10%
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
96.4%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 11 yds to the FlaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
96.0%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
96.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 5 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+10
96.4%
CHILDERS, Marcu sideline pass incomplete to WESLEY, Jauan, PENALTY FS holding (Levonta Taylor) 10 yards to the FS11, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY, clock 08:06.Similar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
90.0%
Marcus Childers run for 11 yds for a TD (Andrew Gantz intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 27PUNT
11 plays · 22 yds · 1:3693% → 94%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
93.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, delay of game (Deondre Francois) to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+2
92.9%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+2
93.2%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+16
93.3%
Jacques Patrick run for 16 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
94.1%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
94.1%
Deondre Francois run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+6
94.6%
Deondre Francois run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q4 6:20
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
94.3%
Logan Tyler punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 28DOWNS
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:274% → 3%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
96.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 5 yds to the NoIll 16Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+6
96.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 6 yds to the NoIll 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
96.4%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 7 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+6
96.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 6 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.7%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
96.8%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. Brown, broken up by Fredrick JonesSimilar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
97.1%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 10
OWN 35
-7
97.1%
Marcus Childers sacked by Kyle Meyers for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 29TD
7 plays · 28 yds · 3:2697% → 99%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
96.6%
Amir Rasul run for 3 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+5
97.1%
Amir Rasul run for 5 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+5
97.1%
Amir Rasul run for 5 yds to the NoIll 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
97.6%
Amir Rasul run for 3 yds to the NoIll 12Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+5
97.7%
Amir Rasul run for 5 yds to the NoIll 7Similar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+7
99.3%
Amir Rasul run for 7 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
99.4%
Marcus Childers sacked by Joshua Kaindoh for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:13
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 78 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
+8.4
TD · Q3 2:48
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 66 yds for a TD NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 8 (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-6.5
TD · Q4 8:01
Marcus Childers run for 11 yds for a TD (Andrew Gantz intercepted )
-6.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com