Try the model
NCCU

North Carolina Central 13 at Duke 55

DUKE
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Wallace Wade Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadNCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreNCCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFUMBLETDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:43 · John Pecaro punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 55Pregame prior+44.9Home team on offense+4.8Score differential+2.1Garbage-time factor+0.6Blowout margin+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:35: Isaiah Totten run for 20 yds for a TD DUKE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Adam Lippy KICK) — NCCU win probability +0.6 pts (now 1%) (top driver: NCCU has the ball).
  2. FUMBLE · Q2 12:26: Quentin Harris run for no gain Quentin Harris fumbled, recovered by NCCtl Jordan McRae , return for 55 yds (Adam Lippy PAT MISSED) — NCCU win probability +0.6 pts (now 2%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:13: Quentin Harris pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 16 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK) — DUKE win probability +0.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:18: Brittain Brown run for 43 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK) — DUKE win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:49: Chris Katrenick pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 3 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK) — DUKE win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 9NCCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 12
  1. Q1 11:21NCCU 4th & 12 at DUKE 36, down 13
    Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 42, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:43NCCU 4th & 4 at NCCU 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:26DUKE 4th & 1 at NCCU 43, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:21DUKE 4th & 3 at NCCU 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:50NCCU 4th & 2 at NCCU 13, down 7
    Close callPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:39DUKE 4th & 1 at NCCU 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:47NCCU 4th & 2 at NCCU 9, down 7
    Close callPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:31NCCU 4th & 14 at DUKE 37, down 14
    Close callPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00NCCU 4th & 17 at NCCU 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:18NCCU 4th & 12 at NCCU 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:49DUKE 4th & 1 at NCCU 3, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:49NCCU 4th & 7 at NCCU 28, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:28DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 35, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:57NCCU 4th & 8 at NCCU 23, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:16NCCU 4th & 13 at NCCU 26, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00DUKE 4th & 6 at NCCU 12, up 35
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:49NCCU 4th & 10 at NCCU 12, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:20DUKE 4th & 7 at NCCU 41, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:51NCCU 4th & 1 at NCCU 34, down 42
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:32DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 49, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 8NCCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:46DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:21DUKE Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:10DUKE Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:35NCCU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:13DUKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:18DUKE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:49DUKE Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:23DUKE Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:51DUKE Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:1499% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.3%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+38
99.3%
T.J. Rahming run for 38 yds to the NCCtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.3%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
99.3%
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+19
99.3%
Quentin Harris pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 19 yds to the NCCtl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
99.3%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 17 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 1:2399% → 99%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
50
0
99.3%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 10
50
-5
99.2%
DUKE Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the Duke 45Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+10
99.2%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Damond Philyaw-Johnson for 10 yds to the NCCtl 45Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+15
99.2%
NC CENTRAL Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the NCCtl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
99.3%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Chris Taylor for 15 yds to the NCCtl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.2%
Quentin Harris run for 15 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 54 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
99.2%
NC CENTRAL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCCtl 5Similar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+2
99.2%
Isaiah Totten run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 7Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 13
OWN 7
+59
99.2%
Isaiah Totten run for 59 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
99.2%
NC CENTRAL Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Duke 39Similar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+9
99.2%
Naiil Ramadan pass complete to E.J. Hicks for 9 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-6
99.2%
Isaiah Totten run for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 36Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 12
OPP 36
0
99.2%
Naiil Ramadan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 12
OPP 36
0
99.2%
John Pecaro punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 1:5699% → 99%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.1%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+9
99.1%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Chris Taylor for 9 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+4
99.1%
Brittain Brown run for 4 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
99.1%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 17 yds to the NCCtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
99.1%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 5 yds to the NCCtl 44Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
99.1%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Brittain BrownSimilar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+44
99.2%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Brittain Brown for 44 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 5TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:351% → 1%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.2%
Naiil Ramadan pass complete to Chance Kennedy for 2 yds to the NCCtl 27Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
99.2%
Isaiah Totten run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 30Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
99.2%
DUKE Penalty, offside defense (Derrick Tangelo) to the NCCtl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.2%
Isaiah Totten run for 5 yds to the NCCtl 40Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
99.2%
Tyquan Watson run for no gain to the NCCtl 40Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+36
99.2%
Naiil Ramadan pass complete to Nique Martin for 36 yds to the Duke 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
99.2%
Naiil Ramadan sacked by Ben Humphreys for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 27Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 13
OPP 27
-4
99.2%
Isaiah Totten run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 31Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 17
OPP 31
0
99.2%
Naiil Ramadan pass incomplete to E.J. HicksSimilar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 17
OPP 31
-5
99.2%
NC CENTRAL Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Duke 36Similar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 22
OPP 36
+15
99.2%
PECARO,John punt 24 yards to the DU12, out-of-bounds, PENALTY DU personal foul (Rumph II, C) 15 yards to the DU21, 1ST DOWN NCCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
99.2%
Isaiah Totten run for 1 yd to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+20
98.6%
Isaiah Totten run for 20 yds for a TD DUKE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Adam Lippy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:3599% → 99%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.8%
Quentin Harris run for 15 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.8%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
98.8%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
98.8%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
98.7%
Austin Parker punt for 39 yds, downed at the NCCtl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
98.6%
Naiil Ramadan run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 20Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
98.6%
Isaiah Totten run for no gain to the NCCtl 20Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
98.6%
Naiil Ramadan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:43
4TH & 9
OWN 20
+5
98.7%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NCCtl 25Similar
Q2 14:43
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
98.6%
John Pecaro punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4599% → 98%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
98.8%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
98.7%
Quentin Harris pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 1 yd to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+8
98.7%
Quentin Harris pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 8 yds to the NCCtl 43Similar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+55
98.1%
Quentin Harris run for no gain Quentin Harris fumbled, recovered by NCCtl Jordan McRae , return for 55 yds (Adam Lippy PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9DOWNS
13 plays · 69 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
98.1%
Quentin Harris pass complete to T.J. Rahming for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+17
98.0%
Brittain Brown run for 17 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
98.2%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Chris Taylor for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 2
50
+4
98.2%
Brittain Brown run for 4 yds to the NCCtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
98.2%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+19
98.2%
Brittain Brown run for 19 yds to the NCCtl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
98.2%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+15
98.2%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 15 yds to the NCCtl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
98.2%
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 11Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 9
OPP 11
0
98.2%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:21
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+6
98.1%
Brittain Brown run for 6 yds to the NCCtl 5Similar
Q2 12:21
4TH & 3
OPP 5
0
98.1%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Scott Bracey, broken up by Randy AnyanwuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
97.6%
Isaiah Totten run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 7Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 8
OWN 7
-1
97.6%
Isaiah Totten run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCCtl 6Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 9
OWN 6
+7
97.7%
Isaiah Totten run for 7 yds to the NCCtl 13Similar
Q2 8:50
4TH & 2
OWN 13
0
97.7%
John Pecaro punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 57 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
97.5%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+34
97.5%
Deon Jackson run for 34 yds to the NCCtl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
97.6%
Brittain Brown run for 14 yds to the NCCtl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
97.6%
Brittain Brown run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 5Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
97.6%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 4 yds to the NCCtl 1Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.5%
Brittain Brown run for no gain to the NCCtl 1Similar
Q2 6:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.4%
Quentin Harris run for no gain to the NCCtl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:223% → 3%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
96.9%
Tyquan Watson run for 4 yds to the NCCtl 5Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+2
96.9%
Tyquan Watson run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 7Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+2
97.0%
Tyquan Watson run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 9Similar
Q2 2:47
4TH & 2
OWN 9
+8
96.7%
John Pecaro punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCCtl 32 NC CENTRAL Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the NCCtl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:2797% → 98%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
96.9%
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 16Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+16
97.8%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 16 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 14PUNT
13 plays · 38 yds · 1:422% → 2%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.6%
Naiil Ramadan pass complete to E.J. Hicks for 6 yds to the NCCtl 31Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+18
97.5%
Jordan Freeman run for 18 yds to the NCCtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
97.3%
Naiil Ramadan pass incomplete to Nique MartinSimilar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
97.4%
Naiil Ramadan run for 3 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+15
97.4%
RAMADAN,Naiil pass incomplete to MARTIN,Nique, PENALTY DU pass interference (McDuffie, J) 15 yards to the DU33, 1ST DOWN NCCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
97.2%
Jordan Freeman run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 36Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 13
OPP 36
0
97.4%
Naiil Ramadan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 13
OPP 36
-15
97.5%
Naiil Ramadan pass incomplete NC CENTRAL Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the NCCtl 49Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 28
OWN 49
+14
97.7%
Jordan Freeman run for 14 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 14
OPP 37
0
97.6%
John Pecaro punt for 17 yds, downed at the Duke 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
97.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.7%
NC CENTRAL Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NCCtl 20Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-2
97.7%
Naiil Ramadan pass complete to Nique Martin for a loss of 2 yards to the NCCtl 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
97.7%
Naiil Ramadan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
97.7%
Naiil Ramadan pass complete to Jordan Freeman for no gain to the NCCtl 18Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+4
97.8%
John Pecaro punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCCtl 43 , T.J. Rahming returns for 4 yds to the NCCtl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17TD
2 plays · 43 yds · 0:1498% → 99%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
97.8%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Brittain BrownSimilar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+43
99.2%
Brittain Brown run for 43 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.0%
Jordan Freeman run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCCtl 23Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
99.0%
Naiil Ramadan pass incomplete, broken up by Chris Rumph IISimilar
Q3 13:18
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
99.0%
Naiil Ramadan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:18
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
99.0%
John Pecaro punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19TD
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:3199% → 100%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
99.2%
Brittain Brown run for 6 yds to the NCCtl 49Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+6
99.2%
Quentin Harris run for 6 yds to the NCCtl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
99.2%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Daniel Helm for 19 yds to the NCCtl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.2%
Chris Katrenick pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+8
99.2%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 8 yds to the NCCtl 16Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+4
99.2%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the NCCtl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
99.2%
Chris Katrenick pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 8 yds to the NCCtl 4Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 2
OPP 4
0
99.2%
Marvin Hubbard III run for no gain to the NCCtl 4Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+1
99.2%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 3Similar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Chris Katrenick pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 3 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.8%
Jordan Freeman run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 28Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Chauncey Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Chauncey Caldwell pass complete to E.J. Hicks for no gain to the NCCtl 28Similar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.8%
John Pecaro punt for 37 yds , Jake Bobo returns for no gain to the Duke 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Chris Katrenick pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Chris Katrenick run for no gain to the Duke 35Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Chris Katrenick pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Austin Parker punt for 44 yds, fair catch by E.J. Hicks at the NCCtl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:530% → 0%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Chauncey Caldwell pass incomplete to Jordan FreemanSimilar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
99.9%
Chauncey Caldwell run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 23Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Chauncey Caldwell pass incomplete to Nique MartinSimilar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 8
OWN 23
+7
99.9%
John Pecaro punt for 36 yds , Jake Bobo returns for 7 yds to the Duke 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 3:21100% → 100%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
99.9%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 7 yds to the DUKE 45 DUKE Penalty, Offensive holding (Scott Bracey) to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 13
OWN 45
+12
99.9%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 12 yds to the NCCtl 43Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+4
99.9%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 4 yds to the NCCtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
99.9%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 16 yds to the NCCtl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
99.9%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 22 Deon Jackson fumbled, forced by Daejon Weeks,Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+2
99.9%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 20Similar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+7
99.9%
Chris Katrenick pass complete to Jake Bobo for 7 yds to the NCCtl 13 for a 1ST down NC CENTRAL Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
99.9%
Deon Jackson run for 11 yds to the NCCtl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
99.9%
Tyquan Watson run for no gain to the NCCtl 14 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the NCCtl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
99.9%
Tyquan Watson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCCtl 27Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 12
OWN 27
-1
99.9%
Chauncey Caldwell sacked by Derrick Tangelo and Terrell Lucas for a loss of 1 yard to the NCCtl 26Similar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 13
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Chauncey Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:16
4TH & 13
OWN 26
0
99.9%
John Pecaro punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jake Bobo at the Duke 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25DOWNS
11 plays · 48 yds · 0:11100% → 100%
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
99.9%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 4 yds to the NCCtl 44 for a 1ST down NC CENTRAL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Randy Anyanwu) to the NCCtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
99.9%
Chris Katrenick run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+4
99.9%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 4 yds to the NCCtl 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+7
99.9%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 7 yds to the NCCtl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
99.9%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+8
99.9%
Chris Katrenick pass complete to Keyston Fuller for 8 yds to the NCCtl 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+2
99.9%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
99.9%
Chris Katrenick pass incomplete to Damond Philyaw-JohnsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+4
99.9%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 4 yds to the NCCtl 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
99.9%
Chris Katrenick pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 12
0
99.9%
Chris Katrenick pass incomplete to Keyston FullerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
100.0%
Jordan Freeman run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 13Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 9
OWN 13
-1
100.0%
Jordan Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCCtl 12Similar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
100.0%
Chauncey Caldwell pass incomplete to Chance Kennedy, broken up by Xander GagnonSimilar
Q4 11:49
4TH & 10
OWN 12
+7
100.0%
John Pecaro punt for 39 yds , Jake Bobo returns for 7 yds to the NCCtl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27TD
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:29100% → 100%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
99.9%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 43Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+2
99.9%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 41Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Chris Katrenick pass incomplete, broken up by Daryl SmithSimilar
Q4 10:20
4TH & 7
OPP 41
+28
99.9%
Chris Katrenick pass complete to Jake Bobo for 28 yds to the NCCtl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
99.9%
Nicodem Pierre run for 4 yds to the NCCtl 9Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+4
99.9%
Nicodem Pierre run for 4 yds to the NCCtl 5Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+2
99.9%
Nicodem Pierre run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.9%
Nicodem Pierre run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 1Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Nicodem Pierre run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Tyquan Watson run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 27Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
100.0%
Dominique Shoffner run for 7 yds to the NCCtl 34Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Tyquan Watson run for no gain to the NCCtl 34Similar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
100.0%
John Pecaro punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jake Bobo at the Duke 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 29DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
100.0%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 3 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+5
100.0%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 5 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+7
100.0%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 7 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
100.0%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 3 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+3
100.0%
Griffin Carter run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 48Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+2
100.0%
Ryan Wolitzer run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 46Similar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 2
OPP 46
-5
100.0%
DUKE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 7
OWN 49
+3
100.0%
Elijah Deveaux run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
100.0%
Jordan Freeman run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:18
Brittain Brown run for 43 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q2 2:13
Quentin Harris pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 16 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q1 0:35
Isaiah Totten run for 20 yds for a TD DUKE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Adam Lippy KICK)
-0.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com