2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:37 · Pressley Harvin III punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FUMBLE · Q1 3:42: Qua Searcy run for a loss of 15 yards fumbled, recovered by Clem Christian Wilkins at GT 4, return for no gain, fumbled, recovered by Clem Clelin Ferrell , return for 4 yd TD (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +2.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:11: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 17 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +4.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:05: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 53 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +4.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:08: TaQuon Marshall run for 11 yds for a TD (Shawn Davis KICK) — GT win probability +2.9 pts (now 11%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:05: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 3 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +4.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 6 of 10CLEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 7:14GT 4th & 29 at CLEM 36, tiedClose callPunted · 19.0% before the snapGo for it18.9%−0.27% to convertField goal19.1%42% to makePuntTheir call19.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:02CLEM 4th & 15 at CLEM 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snapGo for it78.8%−0.516% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.3%average punt
- Q1 2:07GT 4th & 10 at GT 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snapGo for it18.0%−0.628% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.5%average punt
- Q1 0:46CLEM 4th & 2 at CLEM 38, up 7Close callPunted · 81.3% before the snapGo for it81.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.2%−0.3average punt
- Q2 11:55GT 4th & 5 at CLEM 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.7% before the snapGo for it20.5%−<0.141% to convertField goalTheir call20.5%64% to makePunt17.2%−3.3average punt
- Q2 7:42GT 4th & 13 at GT 22, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snapGo for it14.1%−0.819% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.9%average punt
- Q2 4:20GT 4th & 14 at GT 21, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snapGo for it9.0%−0.717% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.7%average punt
- Q3 9:37GT 4th & 10 at GT 35, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q3 3:33GT 4th & 2 at GT 33, down 35Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.8%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.8%average punt
- Q3 0:00CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 44, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.2%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.3%average punt
- Q4 12:45GT 4th & 16 at GT 8, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 7:49GT 4th & 7 at CLEM 30, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−<0.137% to convertField goal0.3%56% to makePunt0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 0:56GT 4th & 3 at CLEM 31, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.152% to convertField goal0.2%54% to makePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CLEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q2 9:11CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.1%97% to makeGo for two83.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:05CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.8%97% to makeGo for two88.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:08GT Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.4%97% to makeGo for two13.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:05CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.2%97% to makeGo for two90.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:20CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:10CLEM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:43GT Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.9%97% to makeGo for two0.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:15GT Touchdown, down 22 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call1.2%−<0.197% to makeGo for two1.2%45% to convert
- Q4 4:01CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1PUNT16 plays · 39 yds · 7:3812% → 16%
Q1 8:25
2ND & 9
OPP 16
-5
15.7%
Jerry Howard run for a loss of 5 yards to the Clem 21 Jerry Howard fumbled, forced by A.J. Terrell, recovered by GTech Qua SearcySimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 14
OPP 21
-10
15.6%
TaQuon Marshall sacked by Christian Wilkins for a loss of 10 yards to the Clem 31 TaQuon Marshall fumbled, forced by Christian Wilkins, recovered by GTechSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 1:5884% → 83%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
15.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 8 yds to the Clem 28Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
16.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Milan Richard for 1 yd to the Clem 31Similar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 9
OWN 31
-6
16.6%
Kelly Bryant sacked by David Curry for a loss of 6 yards to the Clem 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3FUMBLE TD3 plays · -25 yds · 1:1117% → 15%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
17.0%
TaQuon Marshall run for no gain to the GTech 29 TaQuon Marshall fumbled, recovered by GTech Clinton LynchSimilar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-10
17.3%
TaQuon Marshall sacked by J.D. Davis for a loss of 10 yards to the GTech 19Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 20
OWN 19
+4
14.7%
Qua Searcy run for a loss of 15 yards fumbled, recovered by Clem Christian Wilkins at GT 4, return for no gain, fumbled, recovered by Clem Clelin Ferrell , return for 4 yd TD (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2915% → 15%
Q1 2:07
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
14.8%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Clem 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0585% → 85%
GTDrive 6MISSED FG8 plays · 45 yds · 3:4516% → 17%
Q2 14:45
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+14
16.7%
Marshall, TaQuon rush for loss of 5 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY CLEMSON personal foul 14 yards to the CLEMSON31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GATECH.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7TD8 plays · 74 yds · 2:1684% → 89%
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
15.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for 1 yd to the Clem 42Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+31
15.9%
Travis Etienne run for 16 yds to the GATECH 34 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the GTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+17
11.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 17 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2113% → 12%
CLEMDrive 9TD2 plays · 55 yds · 0:2888% → 93%
GTDrive 10PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 2:399% → 8%
Q2 5:11
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-4
8.3%
TaQuon Marshall sacked by Trayvon Mullen for a loss of 4 yards to the GTech 21Similar
Q2 4:20
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+14
8.2%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 58 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for 14 yds to the Clem 35 CLEMSON Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Clem 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0693% → 93%
GTDrive 12TD5 plays · 23 yds · 1:349% → 11%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13TD16 plays · 64 yds · 1:4888% → 95%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
11.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 11 yds to the Clem 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
10.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 9 yds to the GTech 33Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+2
10.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 2 yds to the GTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+9
10.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 9 yds to the GTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 15
OPP 24
+21
10.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 21 yds to the GTech 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
5.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 3 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2594% → 97%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
6.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for 5 yds to the Clem 30Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
6.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for 11 yds to the Clem 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
5.8%
Travis Etienne run for 14 yds to the GTech 26 CLEMSON Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the GTech 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 2:304% → 3%
Q3 11:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
3.3%
TaQuon Marshall run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 35 TaQuon Marshall fumbled, recovered by GTech Jordan Mason for a 1ST down Jordan Mason run for 3 yds to the GTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
3.0%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17TD10 plays · 83 yds · 4:0597% → 99%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
2.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Derion Kendrick for 6 yds to the Clem 23Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+20
1.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to T.J. Chase for 20 yds to the GTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+14
1.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to T.J. Chase for 14 yds to the GTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:211% → 1%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+44
0.9%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Clinton Lynch for 29 yds to the GATECH 35 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Clem 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
0.7%
Jerry Howard run for 2 yds to the Clem 18 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Personal Foul (9 Yards) to the Clem 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 1:2298% → 99%
Q3 0:00
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+1
0.7%
Will Spiers punt for 43 yds , Brad Stewart returns for 1 yd to the GTech 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 2:001% → 0%
CLEMDrive 21INT6 plays · 17 yds · 2:25100% → 100%
Q4 10:13
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+42
0.3%
Chase Brice pass intercepted Malik Rivera return for 42 yds to the Clem 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 22TD7 plays · 33 yds · 3:450% → 2%
CLEMDrive 23TD6 plays · 77 yds · 2:0699% → 100%
GTDrive 24DOWNS7 plays · 40 yds · 2:540% → 0%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
0.2%
Tobias Oliver sacked by Austin Bryant for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:05
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 3 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK)
-4.4
TD · Q2 7:05
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 53 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK)
-4.3
TD · Q2 9:11
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 17 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK)
-4