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OHIO

Ohio 31 at Virginia 45

UVA
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreOHIO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-2UVA 94.8%Louie Zervos 45 yd FG GOODAWAY 31 - HOME 45 · Q4 2:59
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:59 · Louie Zervos 45 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Home team on offense+24.5Pregame prior+0.7Score differential+7.6Garbage-time factor+5.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.3Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:35: Jordan Ellis 6 Yd Run (A.J. Mejia Kick) — UVA win probability +9.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:52: Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 10 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK) — UVA win probability +7.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:27: Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 29 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +8.1 pts (now 11%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:50: Nathan Rourke pass complete to Isiah Cox for 36 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +10.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:27: Maleek Irons run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +7.9 pts (now 23%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 4OHIO made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 14:12OHIO 4th & 8 at OHIO 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:51OHIO 4th & 1 at OHIO 36, down 14
    Close callPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:51UVA 4th & 2 at OHIO 45, up 14
    Close callPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    66.7%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:06OHIO 4th & 1 at OHIO 43, down 14
    Close callPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:55OHIO 4th & 2 at OHIO 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.8%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:52OHIO 4th & 10 at OHIO 25, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 44, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:27UVA 4th & 19 at UVA 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−3.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:57OHIO 4th & 3 at UVA 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    17.9%−2.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    18.3%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:36UVA 4th & 1 at OHIO 13, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.8%−1.7
    85% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−6.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:36OHIO 4th & 16 at OHIO 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−1.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:01OHIO 4th & 10 at OHIO 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:59OHIO 4th & 13 at UVA 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6OHIO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 14:12UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:51UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:17OHIO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 6:06UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:35UVA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:52UVA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:27OHIO Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:50OHIO Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 9:27OHIO Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:01UVA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OHIODrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
65.4%
A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the Ohio 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-11
65.4%
Nathan Rourke sacked by Chris Peace for a loss of 11 yards to the Ohio 18 Nathan Rourke fumbled, recovered by Virg Eli Hanback , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2TD
1 play · 18 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
65.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 18 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
65.6%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds to the Ohio 32Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
65.6%
Nathan Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:12
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
65.6%
Nathan Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:12
4TH & 8
OWN 32
-2
65.6%
Michael Farkas punt for 52 yds , Tavares Kelly returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4TD
1 play · 86 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+86
66.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 86 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
66.6%
Nathan Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
66.7%
Nathan Rourke run for 2 yds to the Ohio 29Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+7
66.7%
A.J. Ouellette run for 7 yds to the Ohio 36Similar
Q1 12:51
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+42
66.6%
Michael Farkas punt for 59 yds , Tavares Kelly returns for 42 yds to the Virg 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
68.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Ohio 49Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+4
68.2%
Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the Ohio 45Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 2
OPP 45
0
68.1%
Jordan Ellis run for no gain to the Ohio 45Similar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
67.9%
Lester Coleman punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:3231% → 34%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
68.9%
Maleek Irons run for 4 yds to the Ohio 24Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
68.8%
Maleek Irons run for 2 yds to the Ohio 26Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+70
68.9%
Nathan Rourke run for 70 yds to the Virg 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
68.1%
Maleek Irons run for 3 yds to the Virg 1Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.2%
Maleek Irons run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
71.5%
Jordan Ellis run for 75 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
70.5%
Maleek Irons run for 1 yd to the Ohio 24Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+6
70.6%
Maleek Irons run for 6 yds to the Ohio 30Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+4
70.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 4 yds to the Ohio 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
70.4%
Nathan Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
70.5%
Maleek Irons run for 5 yds to the Ohio 39Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+4
70.4%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to DL Knock for 4 yds to the Ohio 43Similar
Q1 6:06
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+25
70.5%
Michael Farkas punt for 40 yds, downed at the VIRGINIA 17 OHIO Penalty, kick catching interference (Julian Ross) to the Virg 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10TD
13 plays · 68 yds · 5:3774% → 85%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
73.5%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the Virg 33Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+5
73.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 5 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+8
73.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Evan Butts for 8 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
74.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 16 yds to the Ohio 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
75.6%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
75.5%
Jordan Ellis run for 7 yds to the Ohio 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+5
75.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 5 yds to the Ohio 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
75.6%
Ellis, J rush for 3 yards to the OHIO23 (CROUTCH, E.;BERGER, K.), PENALTY OHIO offside defense 5 yards to the OHIO21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 21
0
75.6%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+5
75.6%
Perkins, B pass incomplete to Kelly, T, PENALTY OHIO offside defense (BERGER, K.) 5 yards to the OHIO16, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
75.6%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Ohio 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+8
75.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 8 yds to the Ohio 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
85.4%
Jordan Ellis 6 Yd Run (A.J. Mejia Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11FUMBLE
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.4%
Nathan Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
84.6%
A.J. Ouellette run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ohio 1 A.J. Ouellette fumbled, forced by Richard Burney, recovered by Virg Eli Hanback , return for 14 yds to the Ohio 1 Eli Hanback fumbled, forced by Richard Burney, recovered by Ohio A.J. OuelletteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12DOWNS
6 plays · 43 yds · 3:2115% → 13%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+36
85.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 36 yds to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
84.3%
A.J. Ouellette run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 36Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 11
OWN 36
-7
84.7%
Nathan Rourke sacked by Zane Zandier and Chris Peace for a loss of 7 yards to the Ohio 29Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 18
OWN 29
+16
85.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Jerome Buckner for 16 yds to the Ohio 45Similar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 2
OWN 45
-1
86.6%
A.J. Ouellette run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13TD
9 plays · 44 yds · 4:5689% → 97%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-7
89.2%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Andrew Payne for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 49Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 17
OWN 49
+7
89.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Evan Butts for 7 yds to the Ohio 44Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+11
88.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 11 yds to the Ohio 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
89.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 1 yd to the Ohio 32Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-9
89.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tavares Kelly for 1 yd to the Ohio 31 VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Ohio 41Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 18
OPP 41
+7
89.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 7 yds to the Ohio 34Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+16
88.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 16 yds to the Ohio 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
89.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 8 yds to the Ohio 10Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+10
96.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 10 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.2%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for no gain to the Ohio 25Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
97.2%
Nathan Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
97.2%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q2 2:52
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
97.2%
Michael Farkas punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tavares Kelly at the Virg 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
97.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Evan Butts for 6 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 4
OWN 40
-8
97.3%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Chukwudi Chukwu for a loss of 8 yards to the Virg 29 Bryce Perkins fumbled, recovered by Ohio Eric Popp , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16TD
1 play · 29 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
89.3%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 29 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17TD
2 plays · 54 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
80.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Isiah Cox for 36 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 0:4884% → 86%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
83.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 21 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
84.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 8 yds to the Ohio 46Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+9
83.3%
Bryce Perkins run for 9 yds to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
83.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 9 yds to the Ohio 28Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+13
83.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 13 yds to the Ohio 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+32
86.1%
A.J. Mejia 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
85.5%
Jordan Ellis run for 6 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
85.6%
Bryce Perkins run for 1 yd to the Virg 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
85.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 9 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
86.0%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
85.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
85.4%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Terrell Jana, broken up by Evan CroutchSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+7
84.6%
Lester Coleman punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ohio 20 , Papi White returns for 7 yds to the Ohio 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 21TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:4513% → 23%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
87.1%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 12 yds to the Ohio 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+37
86.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 37 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+28
84.8%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Jerome Buckner for 28 yds to the Virg 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
84.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Ryan Luehrman for no gain to the Virg 3Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
84.5%
Maleek Irons run for 2 yds to the Virg 1Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.6%
Maleek Irons run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
79.4%
Jordan Ellis run for 9 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
80.1%
Jordan Ellis run for no gain to the Virg 34Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
79.4%
Jordan Ellis run for 5 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
80.5%
Bryce Perkins run for 14 yds to the Ohio 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-6
81.0%
Bryce Perkins run for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 16
OWN 47
-5
80.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Jake Fieler) to the Virg 42Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 21
OWN 42
-10
79.9%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Will Evans for a loss of 10 yards to the Virg 32Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 31
OWN 32
+12
78.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 12 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 19
OWN 44
0
77.7%
Lester Coleman punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the Ohio 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
81.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 6 yds to the Ohio 28Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+6
80.5%
A.J. Ouellette run for 6 yds to the Ohio 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
80.6%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the Ohio 37Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+2
80.1%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds to the Ohio 39Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+14
80.3%
Maleek Irons run for 14 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
78.6%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Maleek Irons for 3 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+4
78.6%
Maleek Irons run for 4 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
78.4%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Ryan LuehrmanSimilar
Q3 4:57
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
80.1%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Cameron Odom, broken up by Bryce HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24MISSED FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:2486% → 86%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
86.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 11 yds to the Ohio 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
86.3%
Bryce Perkins run for 8 yds to the Ohio 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 41
-5
86.4%
Perkins, B pass incomplete, QB hurry by OGUN-SEMORE, A., PENALTY VA ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the OHIO46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+13
86.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 13 yds to the Ohio 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
86.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 11 yds to the Ohio 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
86.6%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Ohio 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 0
0
84.9%
Perkins, B pass incomplete to Dubois, H, PENALTY OHIO offside defense off-setting, PENALTY VA pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 6
OPP 18
0
87.6%
Jordan Ellis run for no gain to the Ohio 18Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+5
87.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Evan Butts for 5 yds to the Ohio 13Similar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+30
86.2%
A.J. Mejia 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:0013% → 11%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
87.1%
A.J. Ouellette run for 8 yds to the Ohio 28Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
85.4%
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd to the Ohio 29Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
86.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the Ohio 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
85.7%
A.J. Ouellette run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 31Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 11
OWN 31
-5
87.4%
OHIO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Ohio 26Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 16
OWN 26
0
87.6%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 16
OWN 26
0
88.2%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Shane HooksSimilar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 16
OWN 26
0
88.7%
Michael Farkas punt for 57 yds, downed at the Virg 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 26TD
3 plays · 83 yds · 0:5491% → 98%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
90.7%
Bryce Perkins run for 6 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 4
OWN 23
0
91.0%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+77
97.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 77 yds for a TD (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 3%
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
96.5%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Cameron Odom, broken up by Darrius BrattonSimilar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
96.7%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Andrew Meyer, broken up by Bryce HallSimilar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
96.8%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Shane HooksSimilar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
96.8%
Michael Farkas punt for 33 yds , Tavares Kelly returns for no gain to the Virg 40 Tavares Kelly fumbled, recovered by Ohio Cameron Gunnels VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 28FG
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:233% → 5%
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
97.1%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for 9 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+7
96.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 7 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
96.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 7 yds to the Virg 17Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 3
OPP 17
0
96.5%
Nathan Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 3
OPP 17
-10
96.8%
Nathan Rourke sacked by Zane Zandier for a loss of 10 yards to the Virg 27Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 13
OPP 27
+45
94.8%
Louie Zervos 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 29END OF GAME
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
97.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 15 yds to the Ohio 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
97.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Ohio 22Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+8
97.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 8 yds to the Ohio 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
97.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 17Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 13
OPP 17
-3
97.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:50
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Isiah Cox for 36 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
-10.6
TD · Q2 11:35
Jordan Ellis 6 Yd Run (A.J. Mejia Kick)
+9.8
TD · Q2 1:27
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 29 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
-8.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com