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MIA

Miami 49 at Toledo 24

TOL
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+3.7TOL 17.0%Jameson Vest 47 yd FG GOODAWAY 35 - HOME 24 · Q4 14:19
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:19 · Jameson Vest 47 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 137Pregame prior−9.4Home team on offense−14.7Score differential−7.7Garbage-time factor−7.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:53: Art Thompkins run for 5 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +12.0 pts (now 27%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:34: DeeJay Dallas run for 19 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK) — MIA win probability +10.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:39: Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 40 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +13.8 pts (now 28%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:28: Malik Rosier pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 5 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK) — MIA win probability +12.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:18: Malik Rosier run for 37 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK) — MIA win probability +9.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 8 of 9MIA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:40TOL 4th & 16 at TOL 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:09TOL 4th & 17 at TOL 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:35MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:42TOL 4th & 1 at MIA 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    24.3%−1.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    24.8%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:03MIA 4th & 5 at TOL 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:36TOL 4th & 6 at TOL 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:39TOL 4th & 8 at MIA 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:25MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:32TOL 4th & 15 at TOL 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:34MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:05MIA 4th & 2 at TOL 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    76.7%−1.0
    75% to make
    Punt
    70.2%−7.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:19TOL 4th & 2 at MIA 29, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.9%−0.8
    58% to make
    Punt
    9.3%−4.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:54MIA 4th & 1 at TOL 1, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    95.2%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    92.1%−4.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:42TOL 4th & 29 at TOL 6, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:59MIA 4th & 8 at TOL 43, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−<0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:13TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 25, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 8:11MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:27MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:56MIA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:37TOL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:53TOL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:34MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:39TOL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:28MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:18MIA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:54MIA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:0717% → 18%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.0%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the Toled 25Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
17.1%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 24 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
17.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-3
17.5%
Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 46Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 13
OWN 46
-3
17.8%
Art Thompkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 16
OWN 43
0
17.9%
Bailey Flint punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 4:2682% → 82%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
18.0%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+9
18.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 9 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
18.2%
Malik Rosier run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
18.3%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Darrell LanghamSimilar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
18.5%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Darrell Langham for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
50
+9
18.5%
Travis Homer run for 9 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+5
18.5%
Travis Homer run for 5 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
18.8%
Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+19
19.0%
Jeff Thomas run for 19 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
19.2%
DeeJay Dallas run for 11 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
19.3%
DeeJay Dallas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 5Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
18.1%
Malik Rosier run for 5 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:5719% → 19%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-7
18.7%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Sheldrick Redwine for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 18Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
18.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:09
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
18.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 52 yds, downed at the MiaFl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2181% → 81%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
18.7%
Travis Homer run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
18.8%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Jeff ThomasSimilar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+4
19.3%
Travis Homer run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+9
19.5%
Zach Feagles punt for 41 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for 9 yds to the Toled 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5DOWNS
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:4620% → 21%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
19.6%
Art Thompkins run for 13 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
20.2%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 5 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+1
20.5%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Art Thompkins for 1 yd to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+3
20.6%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 1
OPP 45
-1
20.6%
Mitchell Guadagni run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4981% → 80%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
19.5%
Lorenzo Lingard run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 12
OWN 44
0
19.7%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+7
20.0%
Malik Rosier run for 7 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 2:03
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
19.9%
Zach Feagles punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Danzel McKinley-Lewis at the Toled 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:1620% → 21%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
20.3%
Mitchell Guadagni run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 9Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 12
OWN 9
+12
20.4%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 12 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
20.6%
TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Toled 11Similar
Q1 0:18
1ST & 20
OWN 11
+14
20.7%
Art Thompkins run for 14 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+2
21.1%
Art Thompkins run for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 4
OWN 27
-2
20.8%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Scott Patchan for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 25Similar
Q2 14:36
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
20.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jeff Thomas at the MiaFl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 2:0180% → 84%
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
20.1%
Malik Rosier run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
50
+8
20.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Brian Hightower for 8 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+1
20.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Mike Harley for 1 yd to the Toled 41Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+3
20.2%
Trayone Gray run for 3 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
16.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 38 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9MISSED FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 4:2117% → 17%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.6%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+31
16.8%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 31 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
17.6%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+4
17.6%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+13
17.5%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Cody Thompson for 13 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
17.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 15
OPP 32
-3
17.9%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 18
OPP 35
+2
17.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 2 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 16
OPP 33
+8
16.9%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 7:39
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+42
17.0%
Jameson Vest 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0784% → 83%
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
16.0%
Travis Homer run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
15.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 6 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
17.0%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+9
17.3%
Zach Feagles punt for 43 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for 9 yds to the Toled 41 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Toled 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:5017% → 16%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
16.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-5
16.5%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Gerald Willis III for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 19Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 15
OWN 19
0
16.2%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:32
4TH & 15
OWN 19
0
16.2%
Bailey Flint punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jeff Thomas at the MiaFl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:3684% → 90%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
16.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 5
OWN 47
+19
16.2%
DeeJay Dallas run for 19 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
15.8%
DeeJay Dallas run for 4 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+7
15.8%
DeeJay Dallas run for 7 yds to the Toled 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
15.7%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+15
15.8%
DeeJay Dallas run for 15 yds to the Toled 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
15.9%
Travis Homer run for 6 yds to the Toled 2Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
9.9%
Malik Rosier run for 2 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:0312% → 17%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
11.6%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
50
+6
12.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Cody Thompson for 6 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+7
12.6%
Shakif Seymour run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
12.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+18
13.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 18 yds to the MiaFl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
12.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
12.8%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
17.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 7 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
14.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:2086% → 86%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
14.3%
Travis Homer run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
14.0%
Travis Homer run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
13.3%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
13.6%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Brian HightowerSimilar
Q3 13:34
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
14.1%
Zach Feagles punt for 43 yds, downed at the Toled 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 2:3315% → 27%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
14.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+10
14.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 10 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
14.4%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the Toled 32Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+34
14.2%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 34 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
16.1%
Mitchell Guadagni run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+31
15.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Art Thompkins for 31 yds to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
27.4%
Art Thompkins run for 5 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0678% → 89%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
22.0%
DeeJay Dallas run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
22.3%
DeeJay Dallas run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
22.5%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 11 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+41
20.7%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 41 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
10.7%
DeeJay Dallas run for 19 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 0:4713% → 28%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
13.2%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 12 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
14.6%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
28.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 40 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 5:5878% → 93%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
22.2%
DeeJay Dallas run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+4
21.8%
DeeJay Dallas run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
21.3%
Trayone Gray run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
21.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Mike Harley for 1 yd to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
21.1%
DeeJay Dallas run for no gain to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+30
21.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 30 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
19.7%
Travis Homer run for 4 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+4
19.7%
Travis Homer run for 4 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 2
OPP 20
0
19.9%
Travis Homer run for no gain to the Toled 20Similar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+4
21.3%
Travis Homer run for 4 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
19.4%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Brevin JordanSimilar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
19.4%
Travis Homer run for 3 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+8
20.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Darrell Langham for 8 yds to the Toled 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
7.5%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 5 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20FG
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:5612% → 17%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
12.0%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
50
+13
12.4%
Bryant Koback run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
12.7%
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+1
13.7%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 2
OPP 29
0
13.2%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:19
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+47
17.0%
Jameson Vest 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4385% → 97%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
15.1%
Travis Homer run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
14.2%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+32
14.5%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 32 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
12.9%
Travis Homer run for 3 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+37
3.2%
Malik Rosier run for 37 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass intercepted Trajan Bandy return for no gain to the Toled 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 3:1197% → 100%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
3.1%
DeeJay Dallas run for 9 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+18
2.8%
Malik Rosier run for 10 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Face Mask (8 yards) (8 Yards) to the Toled 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
2.7%
DeeJay Dallas run for no gain to the Toled 8Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
2.6%
DeeJay Dallas run for 1 yd to the Toled 7Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
2.5%
Malik Rosier run for 6 yds to the Toled 1Similar
Q4 8:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.3%
Trayone Gray run for 1 yd for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -19 yds · 1:560% → 0%
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
0.4%
Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 22Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-5
0.2%
Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 17Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-11
0.3%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Michael Pinckney for a loss of 11 yards to the Toled 6Similar
Q4 6:42
4TH & 29
OWN 6
0
0.2%
Bailey Flint punt for 52 yds, downed at the MiaFl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 3:34100% → 100%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
0.2%
DeeJay Dallas run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+7
0.2%
DeeJay Dallas run for 7 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
0.1%
Lorenzo Lingard run for 1 yd to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-4
0.1%
N'Kosi Perry run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 48Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 13
OPP 48
+5
0.1%
Lorenzo Lingard run for 5 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
0.1%
Zach Feagles punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:420% → 0%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.2%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
0.2%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Bailey Flint punt for 38 yds, fair catch by DeeJay Dallas at the MiaFl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · -8 yds · 1:13100% → 100%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 12
OWN 35
-3
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 15
OWN 32
-3
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:39
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 40 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)
+13.8
TD · Q3 1:28
Malik Rosier pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 5 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)
-12.6
TD · Q3 10:53
Art Thompkins run for 5 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)
+12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com