2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreWKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:14 · Ryan Nuss 35 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 0:13: Blanton Creque 23 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +5.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:23: Dae Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +20.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- FG · Q4 8:14: Ryan Nuss 35 yd FG GOOD — WKU win probability +14.4 pts (now 63%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:01: Dae Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +26.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 2:04: Dae Williams run for 3 yds to the Lvile 48 — LOU win probability +10.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9WKU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
- Q1 15:00LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snapGo for it93.0%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.0%average punt
- Q1 9:16LOU 4th & 13 at WKU 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 91.4% before the snapGo for it91.4%−0.121% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.5%average punt
- Q1 9:03WKU 4th & 5 at WKU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snapGo for it8.5%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.6%average punt
- Q2 15:00LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 32, down 7Close callWent for it · 85.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.5%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt85.6%average punt
- Q2 9:02LOU 4th & 19 at LOU 46, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snapGo for it73.4%−1.511% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.9%average punt
- Q2 8:48WKU 4th & 5 at WKU 16, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snapGo for it24.8%−0.940% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.7%average punt
- Q2 7:49LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 47, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snapGo for it72.5%−0.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.8%average punt
- Q2 6:10WKU 4th & 2 at LOU 44, up 14Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 30.4% before the snapGo for it30.3%57% to convertField goal27.7%−2.627% to makePuntTheir call28.7%−1.6average punt
- Q2 0:13LOU 4th & 3 at WKU 6, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.7% before the snapGo for it60.2%−0.646% to convertField goalTheir call60.8%91% to makePunt56.4%−4.4average punt
- Q3 15:00WKU 4th & 3 at WKU 26, up 11Close callPunted · 33.9% before the snapGo for it34.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.6%−0.3average punt
- Q3 9:07LOU 4th & 6 at WKU 6, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.0% before the snapGo for it52.9%−0.331% to convertField goalTheir call53.3%91% to makePunt43.9%−9.4average punt
- Q3 2:35WKU 4th & 15 at LOU 15, up 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.9% before the snapGo for it51.8%−3.615% to convertField goalTheir call55.4%83% to makePunt44.8%−10.6average punt
- Q4 14:23LOU 4th & 1 at WKU 1, down 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.5%59% to convertField goal35.5%−6.094% to makePunt20.0%−21.6average punt
- Q4 8:14WKU 4th & 4 at LOU 18, up 1Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 49.7% before the snapGo for it49.0%47% to convertField goalTheir call47.9%−1.179% to makePunt27.0%−22.0average punt
- Q4 5:01WKU 4th & 14 at LOU 45, down 3Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 26.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.7%−1.119% to convertField goal23.7%25% to makePunt23.6%−0.2average punt
- Q4 0:25LOU 4th & 12 at LOU 43, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snapGo for it85.4%−3.323% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.7%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WKU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 0:07WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call14.0%97% to makeGo for two14.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:40WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call19.4%97% to makeGo for two19.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:23LOU Touchdown, down 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.5%97% to makeGo for two62.2%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 5:01LOU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.1%97% to makeGo for two72.5%−0.645% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartLOUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+10
93.4%
Mason King punt for 39 yds , Roger Cray returns for 10 yds to the WKent 42 WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive holding (Roger Cray) to the WKent 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2INT8 plays · 27 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
93.0%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 13 yds to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 5
OPP 43
-5
93.0%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive offside (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 48Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
93.0%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 4 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+25
93.0%
Steven Duncan pass intercepted C.J. Avery return for 25 yds to the WKent 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1892% → 92%
WKUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 21 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 9:03
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+3
91.9%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Garland LaFrance for 3 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q1 9:03
4TH & 5
OWN 32
+36
92.0%
Alex Rinella punt for 44 yds for a 1ST down , Rodjay Burns returns for 36 yds to the LOUISVILLE 32 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the WKent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
91.8%
Jawon Pass pass intercepted DeAngelo Malone return for no gain to the WKent 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6TD17 plays · 80 yds · 7:139% → 15%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-8
91.3%
D'Andre Ferby run for 2 yds to the WKent 32 WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive holding (Kyle Fourtenbary) to the WKent 22Similar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 18
OWN 22
+12
90.9%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Gino Appleberry Jr. for 12 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+19
90.6%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 19 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:07
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
85.4%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 9 yds for a TD (Ryan Nuss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7DOWNS5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0787% → 87%
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
86.6%
Jawon Pass sacked by Ben Holt for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8TD3 plays · 31 yds · 0:4516% → 16%
LOUDrive 9PUNT12 plays · 27 yds · 3:3882% → 78%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
81.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 4 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
82.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Lukayus McNeil) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 15
50
-4
82.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jeremy Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 46Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 19
OWN 46
0
77.8%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Dez Fitzpatrick, broken up by Devon KeySimilar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 19
OWN 46
0
77.7%
Mason King punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Roger Cray at the WKent 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 8:48
4TH & 5
OWN 16
0
82.3%
Alex Rinella punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q2 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-6
76.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 4 yds to the LOUISVILLE 49 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive holding (Dez Fitzpatrick) to the Lvile 41Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 16
OWN 41
+6
75.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 6 yds to the Lvile 47 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:49
4TH & 10
OWN 47
+13
75.8%
Mason King punt for 43 yds , Roger Cray returns for 13 yds to the WKent 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q2 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+11
77.3%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 11 yds to the WKent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+4
76.7%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Garland LaFrance for 4 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 5
OPP 47
-2
76.6%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 49Similar
Q2 6:10
4TH & 7
OPP 49
+5
77.4%
RINELLA, Alex punt 32 yards to the LOU17, fair catch by Burns, Rod., PENALTY LOU roughing the kicker 5 yards to the LOU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:10
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
77.3%
Alex Rinella punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13FG15 plays · 81 yds · 2:4667% → 66%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
67.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jaylen Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 12Similar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 11
OWN 12
+31
66.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 31 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
69.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 17 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+9
70.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Devante Peete for 9 yds to the WKent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
70.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Devante Peete for 8 yds to the WKent 17Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
66.2%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Jaylen Smith, broken up by Devon KeySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14END OF HALF3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0036% → 37%
WKUDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+7
65.5%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 7 yds to the WKent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
65.3%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 5 yds to the WKent 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+2
65.6%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 2 yds to the WKent 26Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
66.5%
Alex Rinella punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16FG8 plays · 61 yds · 3:2561% → 61%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
64.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 8 yds to the WKent 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17MISSED FG17 plays · 60 yds · 6:3243% → 54%
Q3 9:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
57.4%
Davis Shanley pass complete to D'Andre Ferby for 2 yds to the WKent 28Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
57.9%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 9 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
55.9%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Tyler Witt) to the WKent 32Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+17
57.9%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 17 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 1
OPP 42
-1
54.3%
Davis Shanley sacked by C.J. Avery and Robert Hicks for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 43Similar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
49.1%
Davis Shanley pass incomplete to Jacquez Sloan, broken up by Cornelius SturghillSimilar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+31
49.2%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 31 yds to the Lvile 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
49.3%
Davis Shanley sacked by G.G. Robinson for a loss of 10 yards to the Lvile 15Similar
Q3 2:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
45.7%
Ryan Nuss 32 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jared Goldwire Rodjay Burns return for no gain to the WKent 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18TD7 plays · 31 yds · 3:1254% → 69%
Q3 2:35
2ND & 5
OPP 26
0
54.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dae Williams for no gain to the WKent 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19FG17 plays · 68 yds · 6:0936% → 63%
Q4 14:23
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+9
65.2%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 9 yds to the WKent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
62.8%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 9 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
62.4%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Garland LaFrance for 7 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 3
OWN 44
-5
60.3%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Kyle Fourtenbary) to the WKent 39Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+12
61.9%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 12 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
57.3%
Davis Shanley pass incomplete to Mik'Quan Deane, broken up by TreSean SmithSimilar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+3
51.4%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Garland LaFrance for 3 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1349% → 85%
Q4 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
49.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 16 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
58.5%
Malik Cunningham run for 3 yds to the WKent 24 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (Drell Greene) to the WKent 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21DOWNS9 plays · 18 yds · 0:0024% → 21%
LOUDrive 22PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 1:3989% → 93%
Q4 0:25
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
92.7%
Mason King punt for 42 yds for a 1ST down , Roger Cray returns for no gain to the WKent 43 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the WKent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23MISSED FG4 plays · 36 yds · 0:1613% → 20%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:01
Dae Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK)
+26.2
TD · Q4 14:23
Dae Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK)
+20.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+20.1