2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreGT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:38 · Antwan Owens run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:59: Qadree Ollison run for 8 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +17.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- FG · Q3 2:36: Alex Kessman 33 yd FG GOOD — PITT win probability +9.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:09: TaQuon Marshall run for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — GT win probability +9.7 pts (now 18%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:37: Clinton Lynch run for 3 yds for a TD (Brenton King KICK) — GT win probability +24.4 pts (now 33%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:37: Qadree Ollison run for 5 yds to the GTech 46 — PITT win probability +15.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 7GT made the numbers' call on 2 of 7
- Q1 15:00PITT 4th & 5 at midfield, tiedClose callPunted · 42.3% before the snapGo for it42.3%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 12:16GT 4th & 1 at GT 22, tiedClose callPunted · 56.7% before the snapGo for it56.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:38GT 4th & 7 at GT 28, down 7Close callWent for it · 53.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.1%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt53.3%average punt
- Q1 5:20GT 4th & 11 at GT 24, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snapGo for it46.7%−1.325% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.0%average punt
- Q1 3:56PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 49, up 14Close callPunted · 55.2% before the snapGo for it55.6%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.8%−0.8average punt
- Q2 14:14GT 4th & 5 at GT 48, down 14Close callPunted · 42.0% before the snapGo for it42.3%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 13:33PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 35, up 14Close callPunted · 60.3% before the snapGo for it61.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.9%−0.2average punt
- Q2 10:12GT 4th & 5 at PITT 23, down 14Close callWent for it · 38.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call37.6%−0.140% to convertField goal37.7%70% to makePunt31.7%−5.9average punt
- Q2 1:22GT 4th & 17 at PITT 40, down 21Close callPunted · 14.3% before the snapGo for it13.5%−0.715% to convertField goal14.3%34% to makePuntTheir call14.1%−0.2average punt
- Q2 0:41PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 29, up 21Close callPunted · 87.8% before the snapGo for it87.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.2%−0.2average punt
- Q3 2:36PITT 4th & 6 at GT 15, up 15Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.2% before the snapGo for it89.3%−0.437% to convertField goalTheir call89.7%83% to makePunt83.5%−6.2average punt
- Q4 15:00GT 4th & 1 at PITT 21, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.3%71% to convertField goal5.5%−1.874% to makePunt-0.2%−7.5average punt
- Q4 13:09PITT 4th & 11 at PITT 24, up 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snapGo for it85.0%−3.025% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.0%average punt
- Q4 9:29PITT 4th & 8 at GT 46, up 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snapGo for it90.7%−0.434% to convertField goal89.2%−2.023% to makePuntTheir call91.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3GT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 8:38PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.3%97% to makeGo for two46.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:20PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.5%97% to makeGo for two52.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:59PITT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.5%97% to makeGo for two86.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:43GT Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call17.9%97% to makeGo for two17.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:09GT Touchdown, down 12 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick12.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call12.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 0:37GT Touchdown, down 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.0%97% to makeGo for two8.7%−1.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartPITTDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
GTDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3TD5 plays · 63 yds · 1:4137% → 41%
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
37.4%
Qadree Ollison run for no gain to the Pitt 37 PITTSBURGH Penalty, face mask (0 yards) ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+23
37.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 8 yds to the GTech 45 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, personal foul (Malik Rivera) to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+11
37.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 11 yds to the GTech 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4DOWNS5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
40.1%
Qua Searcy run for 6 yds to the GTech 31 Qua Searcy fumbled, forced by Elijah Zeise, recovered by GTech Qua SearcySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5TD3 plays · 26 yds · 1:0443% → 48%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
42.9%
Kenny Pickett run for 5 yds to the GTech 21 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, personal foul (Bruce Jordan-Swilling) to the GTech 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
49.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Aaron Mathews for 12 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+6
49.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 6 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+7
49.1%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 34 yds , Brad Stewart returns for 7 yds to the GTech 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 2:2650% → 46%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
56.9%
Maurice Ffrench run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 14 Maurice Ffrench fumbled, forced by Kaleb Oliver, recovered by Pitt Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 11
OWN 14
+14
56.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 14 yds to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+6
56.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 6 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q2 13:33
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
56.2%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Brad Stewart at the GTech 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10DOWNS10 plays · 48 yds · 0:0041% → 42%
Q2 10:12
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+6
58.0%
TaQuon Marshall run for 6 yds to the GTech 44 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+2
56.8%
TaQuon Marshall run for 2 yds to the Pitt 23 TaQuon Marshall fumbled, recovered by GTech Clinton LynchSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11TD5 plays · 77 yds · 2:0866% → 86%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+60
66.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 60 yds to the GTech 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 35 yds · 1:3718% → 17%
Q2 2:59
3RD & 9
OPP 32
-8
80.8%
TaQuon Marshall sacked by Quintin Wirginis for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:3687% → 88%
GTDrive 14MISSED FG6 plays · 39 yds · 0:3215% → 12%
Q2 0:32
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+20
83.1%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Jalen Camp for 20 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15TD13 plays · 75 yds · 6:1715% → 24%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 33
+15
85.6%
Marshall, T. sacked for loss of 3 yards to the GT30 (Hendrix, D.), fumble by Marshall, T. recovered by UP Weaver, R. at GT31, Weaver, R. for loss of 1 yard to the GT32 (Ivemeyer, B.), PENALTY UP face mask (Jones, P.) 15 yards to the GT48, 1ST DOWN GT, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16FG13 plays · 60 yds · 6:0782% → 92%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice Ffrench PITTSBURGH Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
81.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to George Aston for 14 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
82.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes, broken up by Tariq CarpenterSimilar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+15
81.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 15 yds to the GTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
82.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 12 yds to the GTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
82.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17FUMBLE4 plays · 4 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 2:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.9%
Clinton Lynch run for 4 yds to the GTech 29 Clinton Lynch fumbled, forced by Oluwaseun Idowu, recovered by Pitt Rashad WeaverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+42
93.0%
Kenny Pickett pass intercepted Malik Rivera return for 42 yds to the GTech 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19TD8 plays · 56 yds · 3:439% → 18%
Q4 13:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
81.6%
TaQuon Marshall run for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0087% → 85%
Q4 13:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
86.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 9 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-10
86.8%
Ollison, Q. rush for 6 yards to the UP40 (Mitchell, B.), PENALTY UP holding (Bookser, A.) 10 yards to the UP24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:09
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+15
85.3%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 46 , Brad Stewart returns for 15 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 21INT4 plays · 15 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q4 11:23
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+20
84.3%
TaQuon Marshall pass intercepted Phillipie Motley return for 20 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22PUNT9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
GTDrive 23TD16 plays · 99 yds · 3:316% → 33%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
94.0%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Brad Stewart for 7 yds to the GTech 23Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
93.1%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Jordan Mason for 2 yds to the GTech 41Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+13
93.2%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Brad Stewart for 13 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
92.7%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Brad Stewart for 13 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+11
91.8%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Malachi Carter for 11 yds to the Pitt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
91.8%
TaQuon Marshall pass incomplete to Brad Stewart, broken up by Phillipie MotleySimilar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+8
92.4%
Marshall, T. pass incomplete to Stewart, B., PENALTY UP holding (Ford, P.) 8 yards to the UP8, 1ST DOWN GT, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:37
Clinton Lynch run for 3 yds for a TD (Brenton King KICK)
-24.4
TD · Q2 2:59
Qadree Ollison run for 8 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)
+17.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:37
Qadree Ollison run for 5 yds to the GTech 46
+15.1