2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreGASO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:15 · Magill Bauerle punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSo 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:43: Travis Etienne run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:19: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 57 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:53: Tavien Feaster run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +2.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:54: Shai Werts run for 6 yds for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK) — GASO win probability +2.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:06: Travis Etienne run for 40 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5GASO made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
- Q1 9:26GASO 4th & 3 at GASO 42, tiedClose callPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it4.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:48CLEM 4th & 15 at GASO 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snapGo for it94.8%−0.116% to convertField goalTheir call95.0%72% to makePunt94.6%−0.4average punt
- Q1 2:04GASO 4th & 12 at GASO 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snapGo for it5.5%−0.121% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.6%average punt
- Q2 14:06GASO 4th & 3 at CLEM 45, tiedClose callPunted · 6.9% before the snapGo for it7.0%52% to convertField goal6.7%−0.325% to makePuntTheir call6.9%−0.1average punt
- Q2 8:43CLEM 4th & 1 at GASO 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.9%59% to convertField goal91.4%−0.594% to makePunt90.2%−1.6average punt
- Q2 6:58GASO 4th & 14 at GASO 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snapGo for it5.7%−0.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.4%average punt
- Q2 3:42GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 33, down 14Close callPunted · 5.0% before the snapGo for it5.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 13:15GASO 4th & 12 at GASO 23, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.522% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q3 10:36CLEM 4th & 18 at GASO 20, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snapGo for it97.9%−0.312% to convertField goalTheir call98.2%75% to makePunt97.5%−0.7average punt
- Q3 7:26GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 37, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.231% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q3 4:19CLEM 4th & 8 at GASO 30, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.7%−0.134% to convertField goalTheir call98.8%56% to makePunt98.5%−0.3average punt
- Q4 12:33CLEM 4th & 9 at CLEM 26, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snapGo for it97.3%−0.530% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.8%average punt
- Q4 6:35GASO 4th & 22 at CLEM 47, down 17Close callWent for it · 2.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.7%−0.58% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.2%average punt
- Q4 3:54GASO 4th & 8 at GASO 19, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5GASO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 8:43CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.4%97% to makeGo for two93.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:19CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.4%97% to makeGo for two95.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:53CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:54GASO Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.2%97% to makeGo for two2.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:06CLEM Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%−0.197% to makeGo for two99.6%45% to convert
- Q4 2:03CLEM Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1INT9 plays · 53 yds · 2:1898% → 98%
Q1 14:35
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+13
97.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 13 yds to the Clem 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
97.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tee Higgins for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+20
97.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Braden Galloway for 20 yds to the GeoSo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
97.6%
Kelly Bryant pass intercepted Kindle Vildor return for no gain to the GeoSo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:593% → 3%
CLEMDrive 3MISSED FG13 plays · 63 yds · 4:3097% → 96%
Q1 8:37
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+9
97.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tavien Feaster for 9 yds to the Clem 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+6
96.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 6 yds to the GeoSo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-12
96.7%
Kelly Bryant run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 14 CLEMSON Penalty, Illegal Block (John Simpson) to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 10
OPP 17
-5
96.4%
Kelly Bryant sacked by Chris Harris Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4PUNT7 plays · -2 yds · 2:444% → 4%
Q1 3:15
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+5
96.0%
CLEMSON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Clelin Ferrell) to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 5
OWN 27
-7
95.7%
Shai Werts sacked by Austin Bryant for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q1 2:04
4TH & 12
OWN 20
0
95.7%
Magill Bauerle punt for 41 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for no gain to the Clem 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5FUMBLE5 plays · 13 yds · 1:2796% → 96%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
95.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Derion Kendrick for 6 yds to the Clem 45Similar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+4
95.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to T.J. Chase for 4 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 5
OPP 46
-2
95.7%
Adam Choice run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 48 Adam Choice fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by GeoSo Raymond Johnson IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:095% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7TD13 plays · 93 yds · 5:1295% → 95%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
94.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Milan Richard for 9 yds to the Clem 16Similar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
94.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Milan Richard for 17 yds to the Clem 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+6
94.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 6 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+31
94.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 31 yds to the GeoSo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 1:455% → 5%
Q2 7:40
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-3
95.1%
Shai Werts sacked by Xavier Thomas for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q2 6:58
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+2
95.1%
Magill Bauerle punt for 41 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for 2 yds to the Clem 23 CLEMSON Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Clem 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9TD4 plays · 70 yds · 1:3295% → 96%
GASODrive 10PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:284% → 4%
Q2 3:42
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
96.1%
Magill Bauerle punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11TD9 plays · 76 yds · 2:3896% → 99%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
96.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Cornell Powell for 4 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12END OF HALF3 plays · 3 yds · 0:202% → 2%
GASODrive 13PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:372% → 2%
CLEMDrive 14FG8 plays · 24 yds · 2:2999% → 99%
Q3 12:15
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+17
98.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cannon Smith for 17 yds to the GeoSo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
98.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 3 yds to the GeoSo 9Similar
Q3 10:43
4TH & 3
OPP 5
-15
98.5%
CLEMSON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Matt Bockhorst) to the GeoSo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 2:591% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16MISSED FG10 plays · 48 yds · 3:0499% → 99%
Q3 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
98.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to J.C. Chalk for 6 yds to the Clem 28Similar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+29
98.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 29 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+9
99.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tavien Feaster for 9 yds to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17FUMBLE8 plays · 30 yds · 4:181% → 1%
Q3 0:52
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+11
99.1%
Shai Werts pass complete to Obe Fortune for 11 yds to the Clem 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+11
99.1%
C.J. Wright run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 49 C.J. Wright fumbled, forced by Nyles Pinckney, recovered by Clem Nyles Pinckney , return for 11 yds to the GeoSo 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0799% → 99%
GASODrive 19TD2 plays · 46 yds · 0:211% → 3%
CLEMDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1298% → 98%
Q4 12:33
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
97.8%
Will Spiers punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Wesley Kennedy III at the GeoSo 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21DOWNS12 plays · 4 yds · 5:523% → 2%
Q4 9:20
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+9
97.5%
Shai Werts pass complete to Obe Fortune for 9 yds to the Clem 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 15
OPP 40
-7
97.7%
Shai Werts sacked by Austin Bryant for a loss of 7 yards to the Clem 47Similar
Q4 6:35
4TH & 22
OPP 47
-7
98.0%
Shai Werts sacked by Clelin Ferrell for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSo 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 22TD2 plays · 46 yds · 0:1998% → 100%
GASODrive 23PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 1:580% → 0%
Q4 5:15
2ND & 7
OWN 20
-5
99.6%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (Jeremiah Culbreth) to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 8
OWN 19
+54
99.7%
Magill Bauerle punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the CLEMSON 37 CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (T.J. Chase) to the Clem 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24TD6 plays · 73 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
GASODrive 25END OF GAME4 plays · 8 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:54
Shai Werts run for 6 yds for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK)
-2.3
TD · Q2 0:53
Tavien Feaster run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
+2.2
TD · Q2 5:19
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 57 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
+1.4