Try the model
TOW

Towson 20 at Wake Forest 51

WAKE
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadTOW aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreTOW score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGEnd of GameTD-1.5WAKE 96.3%Tom Flacco pass complete to ShaneLeatherbury for 18 yds for a TDTimeout TOWSON, clock 00:42 (Two-PointConversion failed )AWAY 20 - HOME 38 · Q2 0:42
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:42 · Tom Flacco pass complete to Shane Leatherbury for 18 yds for a TD Timeout TOWSON, clock 00:42 (Two-Point Conversion failed )
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Pregame prior+34.8Home team on offense+12.2Score differential+4.7Garbage-time factor+2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.0Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:12: Tom Flacco pass complete to Sam Gallahan for 24 yds for a TD (Aidan O'Neill KICK) — TOW win probability +0.7 pts (now 3%) (top driver: TOW has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:32: Tom Flacco pass complete to Shane Simpson for 8 yds for a TD (Aidan O'Neill KICK) — TOW win probability +1.0 pts (now 4%) (top driver: TOW has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:19: Sam Hartman run for 14 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +0.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:42: Tom Flacco pass complete to Shane Leatherbury for 18 yds for a TD Timeout TOWSON, clock 00:42 (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — TOW win probability +1.5 pts (now 4%) (top driver: TOW has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:03: Cade Carney run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 5TOW made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 7:11TOW 4th & 7 at WAKE 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:37WAKE 4th & 8 at TOW 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    94.3%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:49TOW 4th & 17 at TOW 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:49TOW 4th & 6 at WAKE 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    3.1%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:32WAKE 4th & 1 at TOW 46, up 17
    Close callPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%−0.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:02TOW 4th & 3 at TOW 12, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00TOW 4th & 6 at TOW 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:46TOW 4th & 1 at WAKE 43, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−1.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:53WAKE 4th & 8 at TOW 9, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:53TOW 4th & 5 at TOW 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:20WAKE 4th & 1 at TOW 22, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%−0.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:03TOW 4th & 5 at TOW 38, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:04WAKE 4th & 3 at TOW 9, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:04TOW 4th & 9 at WAKE 29, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TOW made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:39WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:12TOW Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:11WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:32TOW Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 14:19WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:42TOW Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:03WAKE Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WAKEDrive 1TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 3:2198% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+23
98.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 23 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
98.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Greg DortchSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
98.1%
Matt Colburn run for 5 yds to the Tows 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+10
98.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 10 yds to the Tows 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
98.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Greg DortchSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
98.1%
Matt Colburn run for 3 yds to the Tows 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+8
98.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Alex Bachman for 8 yds to the Tows 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
98.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Greg DortchSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+8
98.1%
Sam Hartman run for 8 yds to the Tows 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+2
98.1%
Matt Colburn run for 2 yds to the Tows 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
98.1%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the Tows 13Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+3
98.1%
Matt Colburn run for 3 yds to the Tows 10Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
97.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Alex Bachman for 10 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 2TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:272% → 3%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
97.8%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Shane Leatherbury for 16 yds to the Tows 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
97.8%
Shane Simpson run for no gain to the Tows 48Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+12
97.8%
Shane Simpson run for 12 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
97.8%
Shane Simpson run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 42Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+13
97.8%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Sam Gallahan for 13 yds to the WFrst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
97.8%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Jabari Allen for 4 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+1
97.8%
Kobe Young run for 1 yd to the WFrst 24Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+24
97.1%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Sam Gallahan for 24 yds for a TD (Aidan O'Neill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:0197% → 98%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+35
97.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 22 yds to the WAKEFOREST 40 for a 1ST down TOWSON Penalty, roughing passer (13 Yards) to the Tows 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
97.3%
Matt Colburn run for 5 yds to the Tows 7Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
97.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 7 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 4PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
97.4%
Kobe Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tows 25Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
97.4%
Tom Flacco pass incomplete to Kobe YoungSimilar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+13
97.4%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Sam Gallahan for 13 yds to the Tows 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
97.3%
Tom Flacco pass incomplete to Kobe Young, broken up by Essang BasseySimilar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
97.4%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Shane Leatherbury for 8 yds to the Tows 46Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+7
97.3%
Kobe Young run for 7 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
97.3%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Brent Richardson for 4 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 6
OPP 43
-5
97.3%
Flacco,T. sideline pass incomplete to Allen,J. (Bassey, E), PENALTY TOWSON ineligible downfield on pass (Kauffman,M.) 5 yards to the WF48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+4
97.3%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Chris Clark for 4 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
97.3%
Tom Flacco pass incomplete to Shane LeatherburySimilar
Q1 7:11
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
97.4%
Pat Toomey punt for 42 yds, downed at the WFrst 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5INT
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
97.0%
Cade Carney run for 2 yds to the WFrst 4Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+7
97.0%
Cade Carney run for 7 yds to the WFrst 11Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 1
OWN 11
0
96.9%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted Mantriel Reaves return for no gain to the WFrst 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 6TD
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:253% → 4%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
96.6%
Shane Leatherbury run for 8 yds to the WFrst 15Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+7
96.6%
Tom Flacco run for 7 yds to the WFrst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
96.6%
Tom Flacco pass incomplete to Yeedee ThaenratSimilar
Q1 2:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
96.6%
Tom Flacco pass incomplete to Shane SimpsonSimilar
Q1 1:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
95.6%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Shane Simpson for 8 yds for a TD (Aidan O'Neill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 2:1396% → 97%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
96.0%
Hartman, S deep pass incomplete to Bachman, A, PENALTY TOWSON holding (Shuman,B.) 10 yards to the WF37, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
96.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 6 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+15
96.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 15 yds to the Tows 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
96.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 9 yds to the Tows 33Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+5
96.2%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the Tows 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
95.9%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the Tows 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+9
95.9%
Cade Carney run for 9 yds to the Tows 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
96.5%
Sam Hartman run for 14 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 8INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.2%
Tom Flacco pass intercepted Essang Bassey return for no gain to the WFrst 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 2:3596% → 96%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
96.3%
Matt Colburn run for 5 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+10
96.4%
Sam Hartman run for 10 yds to the WFrst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+25
96.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Matt Colburn for 25 yds to the Tows 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
96.5%
Matt Colburn run for no gain to the Tows 31Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+8
96.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 8 yds to the Tows 23Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+4
96.4%
Matt Colburn run for 4 yds to the Tows 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
96.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Greg DortchSimilar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+2
96.5%
Cade Carney run for 2 yds to the Tows 17Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 8
OPP 17
0
96.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Greg DortchSimilar
Q2 11:37
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+35
96.0%
Nick Sciba 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 10PUNT RETURN TD
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:484% → 3%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
96.1%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Sam Gallahan for 11 yds to the Tows 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
96.0%
Shane Simpson run for 3 yds to the Tows 39Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
96.0%
Tom Flacco pass incomplete to Jabari AllenSimilar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-10
96.0%
Tom Flacco sacked by Willie Yarbary and DJ Taylor for a loss of 10 yards to the Tows 29Similar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 17
OWN 29
+70
97.5%
Pat Toomey punt for 41 yds , Greg Dortch returns for 70 yds for a TD TOWSON Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declined (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 11DOWNS
12 plays · 44 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.4%
Tom Flacco run for 7 yds to the Tows 32Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
97.3%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Brent Richardson for 4 yds to the Tows 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
97.3%
Tom Flacco sacked by Ja'Cquez Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the Tows 29Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 17
OWN 29
+18
97.4%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Ryan Rutkowski for 18 yds to the Tows 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
97.3%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Shane Leatherbury for 18 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
97.1%
TOWSON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 40Similar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 15
OPP 40
-5
97.3%
TOWSON Penalty, false start (Chris Clark) to the WFrst 45Similar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 20
OPP 45
-9
97.3%
Tom Flacco sacked by Carlos Basham Jr. and Sulaiman Kamara for a loss of 9 yards to the Tows 46Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 29
OWN 46
+10
97.4%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Ryan Rutkowski for 10 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 19
OPP 44
+13
97.4%
Tom Flacco run for 13 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 6
OPP 31
0
97.3%
Tom Flacco pass incomplete to Brent RichardsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:4797% → 97%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
97.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Alex BachmanSimilar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+14
97.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Alex Bachman for 14 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
97.5%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 5
50
+4
97.5%
Sam Hartman run for 4 yds to the Tows 46Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
97.4%
Cade Carney run for no gain to the Tows 46Similar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
97.1%
Dom Maggio punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Shane Simpson at the Tows 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 13PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:233% → 2%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
96.9%
Shane Simpson run for 3 yds to the Tows 8Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+4
96.9%
Kobe Young run for 4 yds to the Tows 12Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 3
OWN 12
0
96.9%
Tom Flacco pass incomplete to Brent Richardson, broken up by Zeek RodneySimilar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 3
OWN 12
+60
98.2%
Pat Toomey punt for 48 yds , Greg Dortch returns for 60 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 14TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 1:202% → 4%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
98.2%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Brent Richardson for 6 yds to the Tows 26Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+4
98.1%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Jabari Allen for 4 yds to the Tows 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
98.1%
Kobe Young run for 5 yds to the Tows 35Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+17
98.1%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Shane Leatherbury for 17 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
98.1%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Jabari Allen for 17 yds to the WFrst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
97.9%
Tom Flacco pass incomplete to Jabari AllenSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+13
97.9%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Ryan Rutkowski for 13 yds to the WFrst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
97.8%
Tom Flacco pass incomplete to Ryan RutkowskiSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
96.3%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Shane Leatherbury for 18 yds for a TD Timeout TOWSON, clock 00:42 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
97.4%
Matt Colburn run for 6 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
97.0%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Shane Leatherbury for a loss of 5 yards to the Tows 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+10
97.1%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Ryan Rutkowski for 10 yds to the Tows 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+6
97.0%
Tom Flacco run for 6 yds to the Tows 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.9%
Tom Flacco pass incomplete to Ryan Rutkowski, broken up by Ja'Sir TaylorSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
97.0%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Kobe Young for a loss of 1 yard to the Tows 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+5
97.1%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Kobe Young for 5 yds to the Tows 39Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+1
97.0%
Pat Toomey punt for 45 yds , Greg Dortch returns for 1 yd to the WFrst 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17FUMBLE
7 plays · 81 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
97.8%
Matt Colburn run for 2 yds to the WFrst 19Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+5
97.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 5 yds to the WFrst 24Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+5
97.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 5 yds to the WFrst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+41
97.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 41 yds to the Tows 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
97.9%
Matt Colburn run for 3 yds to the Tows 27Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+7
97.9%
Sam Hartman run for 7 yds to the Tows 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+18
97.9%
Sam Hartman run for 18 yds to the Tows 2 Sam Hartman fumbled, forced by Diondre Wallace, recovered by Tows Ricky DeBerrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 55 yds · 2:033% → 3%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
97.4%
Shane Simpson run for no gain to the Tows 2Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+20
97.4%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Jabari Greenwood for 20 yds to the Tows 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
97.3%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Shane Leatherbury for 13 yds to the Tows 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
97.2%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Shane Leatherbury for 3 yds to the Tows 38Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+10
97.1%
Tom Flacco run for 10 yds to the Tows 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-6
97.2%
Tom Flacco sacked by Ryan Smenda Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the Tows 42Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 16
OWN 42
+12
97.4%
Ryan Stover run for 12 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+3
97.2%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Jabari Allen for 3 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q3 7:46
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
97.2%
Shane Simpson run for no gain to the WFrst 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 2:2298% → 99%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+22
98.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Alex Bachman for 22 yds to the Tows 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
98.2%
Matt Colburn run for 9 yds to the Tows 26Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+3
98.2%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the Tows 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
98.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Alex BachmanSimilar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+12
98.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 12 yds to the Tows 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
98.2%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the Tows 8Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 7
OPP 8
-1
98.2%
Sam Hartman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tows 9Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
98.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Sage SurrattSimilar
Q3 3:53
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
98.5%
Nick Sciba 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
98.8%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Jabari Greenwood for 14 yds to the Tows 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
98.7%
Tom Flacco pass incomplete to Jabari GreenwoodSimilar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
98.7%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Chris Clark for 5 yds to the Tows 41Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
98.7%
Tom Flacco run for no gain to the Tows 41Similar
Q3 3:53
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
98.7%
Pat Toomey punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21TD
12 plays · 91 yds · 3:0799% → 100%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
99.0%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Alex BachmanSimilar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+25
99.0%
Cade Carney run for 25 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+35
99.0%
Cade Carney run for 35 yds to the Tows 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
99.3%
Cade Carney run for 6 yds to the Tows 25Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+3
99.3%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the Tows 22Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 1
OPP 22
0
99.3%
Cade Carney run for no gain to the Tows 22Similar
Q3 1:20
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+2
99.2%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the Tows 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
99.3%
Cade Carney run for 12 yds to the Tows 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
99.3%
Cade Carney run for 4 yds to the Tows 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
99.3%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the Tows 1Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Tom Flacco run for no gain to the Tows 33Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
99.9%
Tom Flacco run for 5 yds to the Tows 38Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Tom Flacco pass incomplete to Jabari AllenSimilar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 5
OWN 38
+5
99.9%
Pat Toomey punt for 44 yds , Alex Bachman returns for 5 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23FG
7 plays · 68 yds · 3:39100% → 100%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
99.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 5 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+4
99.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 4 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+52
99.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 52 yds to the Tows 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
99.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 6 yds to the Tows 10Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+3
99.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the Tows 7Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 1
OPP 7
-2
99.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tows 9Similar
Q4 9:04
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+27
99.9%
Nick Sciba 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 24DOWNS
12 plays · 45 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
100.0%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Ryan Rutkowski for 16 yds to the Tows 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
100.0%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Brent Richardson for 6 yds to the Tows 39Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+9
100.0%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Jabari Greenwood for 9 yds to the Tows 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
100.0%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Shane Simpson for 10 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
100.0%
Shane Simpson run for 2 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+7
100.0%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Brent Richardson for 7 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+3
100.0%
Tom Flacco run for 3 yds to the WFrst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
100.0%
Tom Flacco pass incomplete to Shane Leatherbury, broken up by Traveon ReddSimilar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+1
100.0%
Tom Flacco run for 1 yd to the WFrst 29Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
100.0%
Tom Flacco pass incomplete to Shane Leatherbury, broken up by Jake SimpsonSimilar
Q4 9:04
4TH & 9
OPP 29
-9
100.0%
Tom Flacco sacked by Manny Walker for a loss of 9 yards to the WFrst 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 25END OF GAME
9 plays · 31 yds · 4:14100% → 100%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
100.0%
DeAndre' Delaney run for 2 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
100.0%
DeAndre' Delaney run for 4 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+4
100.0%
DeAndre' Delaney run for 4 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
100.0%
DeAndre' Delaney run for 12 yds to the Tows 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
100.0%
DeAndre' Delaney run for 8 yds to the Tows 32Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+1
100.0%
DeAndre' Delaney run for 1 yd to the Tows 31Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+1
100.0%
DeAndre' Delaney run for 1 yd to the Tows 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
100.0%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tows 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:42
Tom Flacco pass complete to Shane Leatherbury for 18 yds for a TD Timeout TOWSON, clock 00:42 (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-1.5
TD · Q1 1:32
Tom Flacco pass complete to Shane Simpson for 8 yds for a TD (Aidan O'Neill KICK)
-1
TD · Q1 8:12
Tom Flacco pass complete to Sam Gallahan for 24 yds for a TD (Aidan O'Neill KICK)
-0.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com