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Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadWAG aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreWAG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:47 · Jarveon Howard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wagn 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 11:47: Eric Dungey pass complete to Sean Riley for 16 yds for a TD WAGNER Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +0.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q1 9:47: Dontae Strickland run for 1 yd for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +1.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q1 7:56: T.J. Linta pass complete to Chris Woodard for 24 yds for a TD (Eric Silvester KICK) — WAG win probability +2.1 pts (now 25%) (top driver: WAG has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:38: Eric Dungey pass complete to Taj Harris for 24 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +4.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:43: Eric Dungey pass complete to Ravian Pierce for 3 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +8.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 5 of 7WAG made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 14:09SYR 4th & 1 at WAG 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call50.2%71% to convertField goal50.0%−0.181% to makePunt49.6%−0.6average punt
- Q1 6:25WAG 4th & 5 at WAG 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snapGo for it44.9%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.0%average punt
- Q1 4:32SYR 4th & 2 at SYR 46, up 7Close callPunted · 55.8% before the snapGo for it56.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.7%−0.3average punt
- Q1 3:18WAG 4th & 13 at WAG 17, down 7Close callWent for it · 42.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call42.3%−0.819% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt43.1%average punt
- Q2 9:43SYR 4th & 3 at WAG 3, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call70.1%44% to convertField goal68.6%−1.593% to makePunt61.0%−9.1average punt
- Q2 9:43WAG 4th & 7 at WAG 39, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snapGo for it19.3%−0.437% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.7%average punt
- Q2 5:48SYR 4th & 8 at WAG 20, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.6% before the snapGo for it83.6%−0.832% to convertField goalTheir call84.5%75% to makePunt78.7%−5.7average punt
- Q2 4:23WAG 4th & 7 at WAG 28, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snapGo for it5.3%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.4%average punt
- Q2 2:59SYR 4th & 9 at SYR 31, up 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snapGo for it95.5%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.6%average punt
- Q2 1:41WAG 4th & 4 at WAG 21, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.4%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.5%average punt
- Q3 12:38WAG 4th & 8 at SYR 32, down 45Close callWent for it · 2.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.2%−<0.134% to convertField goal2.2%51% to makePunt2.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 6:25WAG 4th & 7 at WAG 40, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 2:47SYR 4th & 8 at WAG 41, up 52Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.6%34% to convertField goal99.6%−0.132% to makePunt99.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 12:53WAG 4th & 9 at SYR 9, down 52Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.125% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%89% to makePunt-0.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 11:45SYR 4th & 6 at WAG 32, up 49Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%40% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%−<0.151% to makePunt99.7%−0.1average punt
- Q4 11:45WAG 4th & 2 at SYR 5, down 52Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%51% to convertField goal0.1%−0.192% to makePunt-0.3%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 7 of 7WAG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:47SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.6%97% to makeGo for two51.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:47SYR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.0%97% to makeGo for two55.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:56WAG Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.2%97% to makeGo for two46.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:38SYR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.1%97% to makeGo for two63.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:43SYR Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.3%97% to makeGo for two82.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:34SYR Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.5%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:07SYR Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:25SYR Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWAGDrive 1INT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
SYRDrive 2TD8 plays · 25 yds · 2:2275% → 76%
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
75.0%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Jamal Custis for 7 yds to the Wagn 18Similar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+7
75.0%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Jamal Custis for 7 yds to the Wagn 16Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 12
OPP 16
+16
75.5%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sean Riley for 16 yds for a TD WAGNER Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Andre Szmyt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 3INT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
SYRDrive 4TD4 plays · 28 yds · 0:4076% → 77%
WAGDrive 5TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5123% → 25%
SYRDrive 6INT6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 7:56
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
76.2%
Eric Dungey pass intercepted, touchback. Myron Morris return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
SYRDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
WAGDrive 9DOWNS5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 3:18
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-12
76.2%
T.J. Linta sacked by Kingsley Jonathan for a loss of 12 yards to the Wagn 17 T.J. Linta fumbled, recovered by Wagn Chris Gangarossa , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 13
OWN 17
-11
76.4%
Team run for a loss of 11 yards to the Wagn 10 Team fumbled, forced by Ravian Pierce, recovered by Wagn Chris GangarossaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10TD4 plays · 10 yds · 0:5477% → 81%
WAGDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3820% → 20%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+38
79.8%
Eric Silvester punt for 38 yds , Antwan Cordy returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 12TD14 plays · 64 yds · 4:3781% → 90%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
81.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sharod Johnson for 4 yds to the Syrac 40Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
81.6%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sean Riley for 2 yds to the Syrac 42Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+13
81.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Jamal Custis for 13 yds to the Wagn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
81.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Jamal Custis for 10 yds to the Wagn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+8
81.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sean Riley for 8 yds to the Wagn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-6
81.7%
Eric Dungey sacked by Tevaughn Grant for a loss of 6 yards to the Wagn 14Similar
Q2 9:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ravian Pierce for 3 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 9:43
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
89.2%
T.J. Linta pass complete to Willie Dale for 10 yds to the Wagn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
88.8%
T.J. Linta pass incomplete to Joshua DeCambre, broken up by Antwan CordySimilar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+34
89.2%
Eric Silvester punt for 39 yds , Antwan Cordy returns for 34 yds to the Wagn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14FG7 plays · 24 yds · 1:3092% → 92%
WAGDrive 15PUNT TD5 plays · -6 yds · 1:259% → 3%
WAGDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 2:59
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
97.8%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Wagn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 0:262% → 2%
SYRDrive 19TD8 plays · 45 yds · 0:5798% → 99%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+12
98.0%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Dontae Strickland for 12 yds to the Wagn 43Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+14
98.0%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 14 yds to the Wagn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 5
OPP 24
-4
98.0%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Dontae Strickland for a loss of 4 yards to the Wagn 28Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+28
98.5%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 28 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 20END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 21TD8 plays · 49 yds · 1:5399% → 99%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+6
98.9%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Sean Riley for 6 yds to the Wagn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 22DOWNS13 plays · 35 yds · 0:291% → 1%
Q3 12:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
99.4%
T.J. Linta pass complete to Joshua DeCambre for 15 yds to the Wagn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+8
99.5%
T.J. Linta pass complete to Denzel Knight for 8 yds to the Wagn 46Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+17
99.4%
T.J. Linta pass complete to Joshua DeCambre for 17 yds to the Syrac 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
4TH & 8
OPP 32
-8
99.2%
Team run for a loss of 8 yards to the Syrac 40 Team fumbled, recovered by Wagn Luke MasseiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 23TD6 plays · 60 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
99.5%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Devin C. Butler for 13 yds to the Wagn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
99.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Jamal Custis for 4 yds for a TD WAGNER Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Andre Szmyt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 24PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
SYRDrive 25DOWNS8 plays · 12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 26FG8 plays · 49 yds · 3:050% → 0%
Q3 0:58
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+14
99.9%
Graham Lindman pass complete to Andrew Celis for 14 yds to the Syrac 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+29
99.9%
Graham Lindman pass complete to Andrew Celis for 29 yds to the Syrac 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.9%
Graham Lindman pass incomplete to Andrew Celis, broken up by Andre CiscoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 27FG6 plays · 27 yds · 1:08100% → 100%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
99.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 23 yds to the Wagn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 28INT19 plays · 72 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.9%
Graham Lindman pass complete to Joshua DeCambre for 12 yds to the Wagn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+10
99.9%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the Syrac 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+11
99.9%
Graham Lindman pass complete to Joshua DeCambre for 11 yds to the Syrac 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+16
99.9%
Graham Lindman pass complete to Jeffrey Bost for 16 yds to the Syrac 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+14
99.9%
Graham Lindman pass complete to Joshua DeCambre for 14 yds to the Syrac 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
99.9%
Graham Lindman pass complete to Joshua DeCambre for 5 yds to the Syrac 8Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 2
OPP 5
0
99.9%
Graham Lindman pass complete to Andrew Cordani for no gain to the Syrac 5Similar
Q4 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.9%
Graham Lindman pass intercepted Tyrell Richards return for no gain to the Syrac 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 29END OF GAME8 plays · 54 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:43
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ravian Pierce for 3 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK)
+8.8
TD · Q1 0:38
Eric Dungey pass complete to Taj Harris for 24 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK)
+4.2
TD · Q1 7:56
T.J. Linta pass complete to Chris Woodard for 24 yds for a TD (Eric Silvester KICK)
-2.1