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PSU

Penn State 51 at Pittsburgh 6

PITT
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDSAFETYTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:15 · Kirk Christodoulou punt for 27 yds, downed at the Pitt 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 90Home team on offense−9.7Score differential−4.1Pregame prior−10.8Garbage-time factor−3.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:09: Qadree Ollison run for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — PITT win probability +1.8 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q2 0:26: Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 14 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +9.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:36: Trace McSorley run for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +9.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. SAFETY · Q3 7:38: PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Stefano Millin) to the Pitt 0 for a SAFETY — PSU win probability +2.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:40: Trace McSorley pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 11 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 7 of 10PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 13:23PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:34PSU 4th & 3 at PITT 27, up 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.2%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    62.8%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:28PSU 4th & 10 at PITT 31, up 1
    Close callPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    61.9%
    54% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:49PITT 4th & 5 at PSU 17, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    36.8%−3.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:44PITT 4th & 3 at PSU 4, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.5%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    40.4%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−7.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:03PSU 4th & 13 at PSU 15, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−3.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:59PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 42, down 1
    Close callWent for it · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.6%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:48PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 33, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:15PITT 4th & 12 at PITT 13, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−2.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:13PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 39, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:18PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 13, down 17
    Close callPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:28PITT 4th & 11 at PITT 3, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−2.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:09PITT 4th & 11 at PITT 24, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:17PITT 4th & 21 at PITT 35, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:09PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 48, down 45
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 0 of 1PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:14PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:09PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    35.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    35.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:26PSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:36PSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:40PSU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:17PSU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:21PSU Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2227% → 28%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.1%
Qadree Ollison run for no gain to the Pitt 25Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
27.3%
Kenny Pickett run for 6 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
27.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-LouisSimilar
Q1 13:23
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
27.7%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 32 yds, downed at the PnSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 0:4672% → 73%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
27.9%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 36Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+22
28.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Jonathan Holland for 22 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
27.9%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Holding (Damar Hamlin) to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
27.2%
KJ Hamler run for 32 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5628% → 31%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
27.5%
Shocky Jacques-Louis run for 38 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
27.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
28.0%
Kenny Pickett run for 9 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+1
28.1%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
28.4%
Qadree Ollison run for no gain to the PnSt 27Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+8
28.6%
Kenny Pickett run for 8 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+6
28.4%
Qadree Ollison run for 6 yds to the PnSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
28.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the PnSt 11Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 8
OPP 11
-2
29.0%
George Aston run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 13Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+13
30.8%
Qadree Ollison run for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4MISSED FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:2670% → 69%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 15
50
+9
30.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Danny Dalton for 9 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+7
29.8%
Miles Sanders run for 7 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
29.7%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Danny DaltonSimilar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
29.8%
Miles Sanders run for 7 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
30.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:34
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+45
30.8%
Jake Pinegar 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5INT
10 plays · 42 yds · 4:2531% → 35%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
30.7%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+5
31.0%
Darrin Hall run for 5 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 4
OWN 33
-5
31.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Delay of Game (Kenny Pickett) to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+10
30.9%
Kenny Pickett run for 10 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
32.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
32.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Qadree Ollison for no gain to the Pitt 38Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+20
31.8%
Kenny Pickett run for 5 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Shareef Miller) to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
33.6%
Qadree Ollison run for 8 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+3
34.4%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
34.7%
Kenny Pickett pass intercepted Amani Oruwariye return for no gain to the PnSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:2269% → 66%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+31
31.5%
Miles Sanders run for 41 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Brandon Polk) to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
32.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mark Allen for 7 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+5
31.4%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
31.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
31.2%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+11
31.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Brandon Polk for 11 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-6
31.1%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 6 yards to the Pitt 37Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 16
OPP 37
+6
32.0%
Miles Sanders run for 6 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
32.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 10
OPP 31
0
33.6%
Blake Gillikin punt for 27 yds, downed at the Pitt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7MISSED FG
7 plays · 79 yds · 3:3134% → 37%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+63
34.0%
Qadree Ollison run for 63 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
37.1%
Darrin Hall run for 5 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+6
37.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to George Aston for 6 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
37.8%
Shocky Jacques-Louis run for 1 yd to the PnSt 21Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+1
38.2%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the PnSt 20Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+3
37.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 3 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
Q2 8:49
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+35
37.0%
Alex Kessman 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8FUMBLE
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:1065% → 66%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
34.6%
Ricky Slade run for 4 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
34.5%
Ricky Slade run for 4 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
34.1%
Ricky Slade run for 3 yds to the PnSt 31 Ricky Slade fumbled, forced by Quintin Wirginis, recovered by Pitt Rashad WeaverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9DOWNS
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:3139% → 38%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
39.2%
Qadree Ollison run for 9 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+11
39.4%
Qadree Ollison run for 11 yds to the PnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
39.5%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 12Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+4
39.7%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds to the PnSt 8Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+4
39.0%
Darrin Hall run for 4 yds to the PnSt 4Similar
Q2 4:44
4TH & 3
OPP 4
-3
37.7%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:3765% → 63%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+11
35.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 11 yds to the PnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
34.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Danny Dalton for 8 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 2
OWN 26
-3
33.6%
Mark Allen run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 23Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 5
OWN 23
-8
35.6%
Trace McSorley sacked by Quintin Wirginis for a loss of 8 yards to the PnSt 15Similar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 13
OWN 15
0
37.4%
Blake Gillikin punt for 47 yds , Rafael Araujo-Lopes returns for no gain to the Pitt 38 Rafael Araujo-Lopes fumbled, recovered by Pitt Rafael Araujo-LopesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11FUMBLE
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:0138% → 37%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
38.4%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Will Gragg) to the Pitt 28Similar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 20
OWN 28
0
37.0%
Qadree Ollison run for no gain to the Pitt 28Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 20
OWN 28
+8
36.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 8 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+6
36.9%
Kenny Pickett run for 6 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 6
OWN 42
-7
37.3%
Kirk Christodoulou run for a loss of 7 yards to the Pitt 35 Kirk Christodoulou fumbled, recovered by PnSt Jarvis MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:2468% → 78%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
31.7%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+21
31.9%
Miles Sanders run for 21 yds to the Pitt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
22.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 14 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
25.2%
Qadree Ollison run for 8 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:5276% → 75%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
24.2%
Miles Sanders run for 8 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 2
OWN 36
-15
23.5%
PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Juwan Johnson) to the PnSt 21Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 17
OWN 21
-6
25.0%
Mark Allen run for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 15Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 23
OWN 15
+18
25.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 18 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q3 12:48
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
25.2%
Blake Gillikin punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Rafael Araujo-Lopes at the Pitt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2825% → 24%
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
25.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-LouisSimilar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-4
25.2%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 11Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 14
OWN 11
+2
24.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 2 yds to the Pitt 13Similar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 12
OWN 13
0
23.7%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 27 yds, downed at the Pitt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:3478% → 88%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
22.4%
Miles Sanders run for 9 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+4
21.9%
Miles Sanders run for 4 yds to the Pitt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
21.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
22.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+16
22.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Jonathan Holland for 3 yds Jonathan Holland fumbled, forced by Dane Jackson, recovered by PnSt for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Roughing Passer (Patrick Jones II) to the Pitt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
21.9%
Mark Allen run for no gain to the Pitt 11Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+7
21.4%
Miles Sanders run for 7 yds to the Pitt 4Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
11.9%
Trace McSorley run for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17SF
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:5215% → 13%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
15.3%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Tyler Sear) to the Pitt 4Similar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 14
OWN 4
-3
14.8%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 1Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 17
OWN 1
0
12.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Stefano Millin) to the Pitt 0 for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0288% → 88%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
12.0%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+1
11.3%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 39Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
11.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Pat FreiermuthSimilar
Q3 6:13
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
11.6%
Blake Gillikin punt for 51 yds , Rafael Araujo-Lopes returns for no gain to the Pitt 39 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Illegal Block (5 Yards) to the Pitt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5212% → 12%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-4
12.4%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 1Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 14
OWN 1
+3
12.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 3 yds to the Pitt 4Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 11
OWN 4
+9
11.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 9 yds to the Pitt 13Similar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 2
OWN 13
0
11.7%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 42 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20FUMBLE
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:2391% → 92%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
9.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
9.6%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Offside (Rashad Weaver) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 5
50
0
9.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 5
50
+6
8.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Miles Sanders for 6 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
8.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-1
8.3%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 45Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 11
OPP 45
0
8.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:0211% → 3%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
11.2%
Qadree Ollison run for no gain to the Pitt 4Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+2
11.0%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the Pitt 6Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 8
OWN 6
-3
10.8%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Yetur Gross-Matos and Jan Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 3Similar
Q3 0:28
4TH & 11
OWN 3
+39
3.3%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 36 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 39 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:193% → 3%
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
3.4%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 20Similar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
3.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Darrin Hall for 4 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-8
3.1%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Shareef Miller for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 16Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+8
3.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to George Aston for 8 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+39
2.6%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 39 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 2:1998% → 100%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
1.6%
Trace McSorley run for 20 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
1.5%
Miles Sanders run for 20 yds to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+19
1.4%
Trace McSorley run for 19 yds to the Pitt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-6
1.2%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 6 yards to the Pitt 11Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
0.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 11 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
0.3%
Kenny Pickett run for 11 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
0.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Rafael Araujo-LopesSimilar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
0.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Rafael Araujo-LopesSimilar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-11
0.3%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Shaka Toney for a loss of 11 yards to the Pitt 35Similar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 21
OWN 35
0
0.2%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 26 yds, downed at the PnSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25TD
13 plays · 61 yds · 3:53100% → 100%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
0.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Pat FreiermuthSimilar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
0.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+15
0.3%
McSorley, Trace pass sacked for loss of 8 yards to the PENNST31 (Jones II, Patrick), PENALTY PITTSBURGH face mask (Jones II, Patrick) 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
0.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
0.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+12
0.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 12 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
0.3%
Mark Allen run for 8 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+8
0.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 8 yds to the Pitt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
0.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 5 yds to the Pitt 13Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+10
0.2%
Mark Allen run for 10 yds to the Pitt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
0.2%
Mark Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 4Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
0.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q4 6:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.2%
Mark Allen run for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 26FUMBLE
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
0.1%
Darrin Hall run for 4 yds to the Pitt 8Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+8
0.1%
Darrin Hall run for 8 yds to the Pitt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
0.1%
Darrin Hall run for 5 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+13
0.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 13 yds Shocky Jacques-Louis fumbled, forced by Jonathan Sutherland, recovered by PnSt Ayron MonroeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27TD
1 play · 34 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
0.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brandon Polk for 34 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 28DOWNS
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:510% → 0%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
0.1%
A.J. Davis run for 5 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+9
0.1%
A.J. Davis run for 9 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
0.1%
A.J. Davis run for 13 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
0.1%
A.J. Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 44Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
0.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-LouisSimilar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+4
0.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Dontavius Butler-Jenkins for 4 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 5
OWN 48
-9
0.0%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Daniel Joseph for a loss of 9 yards to the Pitt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 29Uncategorized
1 play · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
0.1%
Ricky Slade run for 2 yds to the Pitt 43 Ricky Slade fumbled, forced by Rashad Weaver, recovered by Pitt Rashad Weaver , return for 6 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 30Uncategorized
2 plays · 24 yds · 0:300% → 0%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+22
0.0%
A.J. Davis run for 22 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
0.1%
A.J. Davis run for 2 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:26
Trace McSorley pass complete to KJ Hamler for 14 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)
-9.8
TD · Q3 8:36
Trace McSorley run for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)
-9.5
SAFETY · Q3 7:38
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Stefano Millin) to the Pitt 0 for a SAFETY
-2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com