Try the model
UNC

North Carolina 19 at East Carolina 41

ECU
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of GameFG+0.2ECU 99.6%Jake Verity 25 yd FG GOODAWAY 19 - HOME 41 · Q4 5:33
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:33 · Jake Verity 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 179Pregame prior−4.7Home team on offense+33.7Score differential+23.0Garbage-time factor+13.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+15.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+9.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:08: Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +12.1 pts (now 29%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:15: Reid Herring pass complete to Trevon Brown for 22 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +13.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Freeman Jones 42 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +3.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 10:19: Darius Pinnix run for 48 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +15.4 pts (now 54%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:23: Holton Ahlers run for 21 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +16.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UNC made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 13:04UNC 4th & 3 at ECU 15, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.9%−<0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    82.5%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:21UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:19ECU 4th & 7 at ECU 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:11UNC 4th & 9 at ECU 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    74.6%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:13ECU 4th & 12 at ECU 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:59UNC 4th & 17 at ECU 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.3%
    51% to make
    Punt
    63.1%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 47, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:33UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 15, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−1.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:49UNC 4th & 20 at ECU 37, down 9
    Close callPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−2.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    38.3%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:42ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 15, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−1.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:19UNC 4th & 7 at midfield, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:23ECU 4th & 1 at UNC 21, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    71.5%−2.8
    74% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−11.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:23UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 34, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.4%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:28ECU 4th & 3 at UNC 27, up 16
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.8%−0.7
    62% to make
    Punt
    87.8%−4.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:47UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 34, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.4%−1.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:33ECU 4th & 8 at UNC 8, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−2.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:33UNC 4th & 11 at UNC 22, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:46ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 48, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:41UNC 4th & 7 at ECU 35, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:21ECU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:18UNC Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:08ECU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:15ECU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:19ECU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:23ECU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1FG
7 plays · 60 yds · 1:5689% → 89%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
10.8%
Antonio Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+48
10.8%
Antonio Williams run for 48 yds to the ECaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
10.8%
Antonio Williams run for 3 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+4
10.8%
Jordon Brown run for 4 yds to the ECaro 15Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 15
0
10.8%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:04
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+32
11.5%
Freeman Jones 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 3:4312% → 14%
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+16
11.5%
Reid Herring pass complete to Trevon Brown for 16 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
11.5%
Reid Herring pass complete to Blake Proehl for 11 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
11.6%
Hussein Howe run for no gain to the ECaro 43Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+25
11.6%
Reid Herring pass complete to Leroy Henley for 25 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
11.6%
Holton Ahlers run for 9 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+4
11.6%
Darius Pinnix run for 4 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
11.6%
Reid Herring pass complete to Anthony Scott for 13 yds to the NCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
14.0%
Anthony Scott run for 6 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.7%
Antonio Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
13.7%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Carl Tucker for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
13.8%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q1 9:21
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
13.9%
Hunter Lent punt for 60 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
14.1%
Anthony Scott run for 2 yds to the ECaro 14Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+13
14.1%
Reid Herring run for 13 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-8
14.1%
Hussein Howe run for 7 yds to the ECaro 34 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, clipping (D'Ante Smith) to the ECaro 19Similar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 18
OWN 19
+5
14.1%
Hussein Howe run for 5 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 13
OWN 24
0
14.1%
Reid Herring pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+11
13.9%
Reid Herring pass complete to Blake Proehl for 11 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 2
OWN 35
-5
14.0%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 30Similar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 7
OWN 30
+3
13.9%
Jonn Young punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 19 , Dazz Newsome returns for 3 yds to the NCaro 33 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the NCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 2:5484% → 83%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
16.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Anthony Ratliff-Williams) to the NCaro 14Similar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 15
OWN 14
0
16.3%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams, broken up by Colby GoreSimilar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 15
OWN 14
-5
16.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 9Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 20
OPP 0
+6
15.5%
Jordon Brown run for 6 yds to the NCaro 15 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, face mask off-setting ( Yards) to the NCaro 15Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 14
OWN 15
+28
16.6%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for 28 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
15.8%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 4 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
16.4%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams, broken up by Colby GoreSimilar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+25
16.5%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 25 yds to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
16.0%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+1
16.1%
Nathan Elliott run for 1 yd to the ECaro 27Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
16.4%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:11
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+44
17.2%
Freeman Jones 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:5818% → 18%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
17.5%
Reid Herring run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 24Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
17.4%
Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 23Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
17.7%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q1 1:13
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
17.5%
Jonn Young punt for 48 yds, downed at the NCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:3882% → 86%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
18.0%
Antonio Williams run for 10 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
17.6%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dyami Brown for 6 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+2
17.3%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 2 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+30
17.9%
Antonio Williams run for 30 yds to the ECaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
17.2%
Jordon Brown run for 5 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+6
17.2%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 6 yds to the ECaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
14.4%
Jordon Brown run for 12 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8TD
18 plays · 86 yds · 7:1016% → 29%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+26
15.7%
Anthony Scott run for 26 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
16.5%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd to the ECaro 41Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
16.2%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Trevon Brown, broken up by K.J. SailsSimilar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+15
15.9%
Reid Herring pass complete to Tahj Deans for 15 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
17.0%
Hussein Howe run for 7 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+2
17.0%
Holton Ahlers run for 2 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+7
16.9%
Holton Ahlers run for 7 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
17.5%
Darius Pinnix run for 4 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
17.5%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Deondre Farrier, broken up by Trey MorrisonSimilar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+11
16.9%
Reid Herring pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 11 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-13
17.5%
Reid Herring sacked by Allen Cater for a loss of 13 yards to the NCaro 26 Reid Herring fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 23
OPP 26
+1
16.9%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 22
OPP 25
+12
16.2%
HERRING, Reid sideline pass incomplete, PENALTY NC personal foul (Powell, T) 12 yards to the NC13, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
17.5%
Darius Pinnix run for 2 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
17.5%
Reid Herring pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+10
16.9%
Reid Herring pass complete to Darius Pinnix for 10 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.0%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9FG
12 plays · 40 yds · 3:0975% → 77%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
25.0%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 12 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
24.0%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Thomas Jackson, broken up by Devon SuttonSimilar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
24.4%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 2 yds Thomas Jackson fumbled, forced by Colby Gore,Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+28
24.6%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 28 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-15
22.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Antonio Williams) to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
23.2%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+20
23.3%
Jordon Brown run for 20 yds to the ECaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
22.3%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-3
22.6%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 28Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 13
OPP 28
-4
24.2%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Javonte Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 32Similar
Q2 2:59
4TH & 17
OPP 32
+49
23.3%
Freeman Jones 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 1:4422% → 39%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+39
21.8%
Reid Herring pass complete to Tahj Deans for 39 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
24.3%
Reid Herring pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 10 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
24.4%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Trevon Brown, broken up by K.J. SailsSimilar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
24.2%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+10
23.5%
Reid Herring pass complete to Blake Proehl for 10 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
26.0%
Reid Herring run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+8
25.5%
HERRING, Reid sideline pass incomplete to PROEHL, Blake (Bell, C), PENALTY NC pass interference (Bell, C) 8 yards to the NC22, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
39.1%
Reid Herring pass complete to Trevon Brown for 22 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 1:1564% → 68%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
36.2%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+34
36.5%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 34 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
33.7%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 9 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
31.8%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+6
31.9%
Jordon Brown run for 6 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
31.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dyami Brown for 10 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
32.8%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
32.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 5 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+42
32.3%
Freeman Jones 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.6%
Anthony Scott run for no gain to the ECaro 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
32.3%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Terrell GreenSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
31.2%
Reid Herring pass complete to Trevon Brown for 17 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
34.4%
Hussein Howe run for 7 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 49
-2
35.0%
Hussein Howe run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
33.9%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Tahj Deans, broken up by Patrice ReneSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
32.0%
Jonn Young punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
34.0%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 4 yds to the NCaro 16Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 6
OWN 16
-1
34.1%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 15Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 7
OWN 15
0
35.4%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dyami Brown, broken up by Michael WitherspoonSimilar
Q3 12:33
4TH & 7
OWN 15
0
36.3%
Hunter Lent punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 1:1138% → 54%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
38.1%
Reid Herring pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 4 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+3
38.5%
Anthony Scott run for 3 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+48
53.9%
Darius Pinnix run for 48 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:3049% → 41%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
50.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 22 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Nolan Johnson) to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
47.6%
Javonte Williams run for 8 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+3
45.7%
Jordon Brown run for 3 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
45.7%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Carl Tucker for no gain to the ECaro 27Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-10
46.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the ECaro 37 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NCaro Nathan ElliottSimilar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 20
OPP 37
0
50.5%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Thomas Jackson, broken up by Davondre RobinsonSimilar
Q3 7:49
4TH & 20
OPP 37
0
58.6%
Hunter Lent punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
59.9%
Hussein Howe run for 4 yds to the ECaro 15Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 6
OWN 15
0
60.0%
Hussein Howe run for no gain to the ECaro 15Similar
Q3 7:42
3RD & 6
OWN 15
0
58.6%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Tahj Deans, broken up by J.K. BrittSimilar
Q3 7:42
4TH & 6
OWN 15
0
57.7%
Jonn Young punt for 38 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for no gain to the NCaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0042% → 39%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
58.2%
Jordon Brown run for 7 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 3
OPP 46
-2
57.2%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Thomas Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 48Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 5
OPP 48
-2
57.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:19
4TH & 7
50
0
60.9%
Hunter Lent punt for 46 yds, downed at the ECaro 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18TD
13 plays · 96 yds · 4:5666% → 89%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
66.1%
Anthony Scott run for no gain to the ECaro 4Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+35
65.8%
Reid Herring pass complete to Trevon Brown for 35 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
68.6%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd to the ECaro 40Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+19
68.5%
Reid Herring pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 19 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
69.4%
Anthony Scott run for 7 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 3
OPP 34
-4
70.6%
Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+8
68.3%
Reid Herring pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 8 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
70.6%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Tahj DeansSimilar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+7
70.2%
Darius Pinnix run for 7 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 23
-5
75.9%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+7
75.6%
Reid Herring pass complete to Hussein Howe for 7 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q4 14:23
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+21
89.3%
Holton Ahlers run for 21 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
86.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 16 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NCaro Jordon BrownSimilar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+18
87.0%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jake Bargas for 18 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
85.8%
Jordon Brown run for no gain to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 14:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
86.1%
Jordon Brown run for no gain to the NCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2193% → 96%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
93.1%
Anthony Scott run for no gain to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
93.1%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+7
92.9%
Reid Herring pass complete to Anthony Scott for 7 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q4 11:28
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+44
96.2%
Jake Verity 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:416% → 6%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.9%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dazz Newsome, broken up by Davondre RobinsonSimilar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
93.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Roscoe Johnson for 9 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
93.5%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Corey Bell Jr., broken up by Corey SeargentSimilar
Q4 10:47
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
94.5%
Jordon Brown run for no gain to the NCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22FG
11 plays · 26 yds · 5:1098% → 100%
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
97.5%
Anthony Scott run for no gain to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
97.5%
Hussein Howe run for 3 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+10
97.4%
Hussein Howe run for 10 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
97.5%
Hussein Howe run for no gain to the NCaro 21Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+1
97.5%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd to the NCaro 20Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+11
97.4%
Anthony Scott run for 11 yds to the NCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
97.5%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the NCaro 8Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q4 5:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.4%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Deondre FarrierSimilar
Q4 5:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
99.6%
Jake Verity 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.3%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-1
99.4%
Javonte Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 22Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 11
OWN 22
0
99.4%
Cade Fortin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:33
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
99.4%
Hunter Lent punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Trevon Brown at the ECaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:52100% → 100%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
99.7%
Anthony Scott run for 2 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+2
99.7%
Anthony Scott run for 2 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+10
99.7%
Anthony Scott run for 10 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
99.7%
Hussein Howe run for 1 yd to the ECaro 42Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+3
99.7%
Hussein Howe run for 3 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+3
99.7%
Hussein Howe run for 3 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+2
99.9%
Hussein Howe run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
50
+12
99.8%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Antoine Green for 12 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
99.8%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Dyami Brown for 8 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 2
OPP 30
-5
99.7%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Javonte Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 35Similar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
99.8%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q4 0:41
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+17
99.8%
Cade Fortin run for 17 yds to the ECaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:23
Holton Ahlers run for 21 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)
+16.8
TD · Q3 10:19
Darius Pinnix run for 48 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)
+15.4
TD · Q2 1:15
Reid Herring pass complete to Trevon Brown for 22 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)
+13.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com