2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadSAV aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreSAV score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:32 · Chandler Williams punt for 40 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:22: Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 67 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK) — MIA win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:08: N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 8 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK) — MIA win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5SAV made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
- Q1 15:00SAV 4th & 16 at SAV 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q1 12:45SAV 4th & 17 at MIA 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.115% to convertField goal0.2%−<0.132% to makePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q1 11:12MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q1 8:46SAV 4th & 24 at SAV 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q1 3:57SAV 4th & 6 at SAV 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 13:44SAV 4th & 5 at SAV 30, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q2 10:29MIA 4th & 2 at SAV 12, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%56% to convertField goal99.6%−0.186% to makePunt99.2%−0.5average punt
- Q2 9:08SAV 4th & 1 at SAV 34, down 28Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 6:59MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 25, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q2 5:31SAV 4th & 1 at MIA 35, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%71% to convertField goal-0.0%−0.245% to makePunt-0.1%−0.2average punt
- Q2 2:36MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 48, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q3 6:36SAV 4th & 8 at MIA 19, down 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%77% to makePunt-0.3%−0.4average punt
- Q3 3:39SAV 4th & 9 at SAV 16, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 11:00SAV 4th & 9 at SAV 26, down 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 8:55MIA 4th & 6 at SAV 20, up 56Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.138% to convertField goal99.9%75% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 6:42SAV 4th & 5 at SAV 25, down 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 5:32SAV 4th & 7 at SAV 24, down 70Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
- Q1 3:57MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:44MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:22MIA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:08MIA Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:34MIA Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:39MIA Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:52MIA Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:05MIA Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:32MIA Touchdown, up 69 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:58MIA Touchdown, up 76 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSAVDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
99.9%
D'Vonn Gibbons sacked by Shaquille Quarterman for a loss of 7 yards to the SavSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2FUMBLE2 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
SAVDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
99.9%
BELL,TJ rush for loss of 8 yards to the SSU43 (Pinckney, M), PENALTY UM face mask (Pinckney, M) 15 yards to the UM34, 1ST DOWN SSU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -14 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
99.9%
D'Vonn Gibbons sacked by Pat Bethel and Joe Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the SavSt 19Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 14
OWN 16
-10
99.9%
D'Vonn Gibbons sacked by Amari Carter for a loss of 10 yards to the SavSt 6Similar
Q1 8:46
4TH & 24
OWN 6
+16
99.9%
Chandler Williams punt for 41 yds , DeeJay Dallas returns for 16 yds to the SavSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6TD8 plays · 31 yds · 3:57100% → 100%
Q1 7:54
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+7
99.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Travis Homer for 7 yds to the SavSt 22Similar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
99.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Trayone Gray for 9 yds to the SavSt 8Similar
Q1 3:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Will Mallory for 2 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8TD8 plays · 59 yds · 2:57100% → 100%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
99.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to DeeJay Dallas for 15 yds to the SavSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
99.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 6 yds to the SavSt 38Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+4
99.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Mike Harley for 4 yds to the SavSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+21
99.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 21 yds to the SavSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.8%
D'Vonn Gibbons pass complete to Czar Beneby for 7 yds to the SavSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10TD3 plays · 71 yds · 0:49100% → 100%
SAVDrive 11FUMBLE2 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
99.8%
TJ Bell run for a loss of 5 yards to the SavSt 20 TJ Bell fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Trajan BandySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12TD7 plays · 20 yds · 2:01100% → 100%
Q2 11:09
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
99.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Travis Homer, broken up by Cam BrownSimilar
Q2 11:09
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+8
99.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 8 yds to the SavSt 12Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 8 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 9:08
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
99.9%
D'Vonn Gibbons pass complete to James Kicklighter for 3 yds to the SavSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 3 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 15DOWNS6 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
MIADrive 16PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
SAVDrive 17END OF HALF2 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
MIADrive 18TD9 plays · 65 yds · 3:26100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+38
99.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Darrell Langham for 38 yds to the SavSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
99.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 14 yds to the SavSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 3 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 19INT7 plays · 26 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 11:34
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
99.9%
D'Vonn Gibbons pass complete to James Kicklighter for 9 yds to the SavSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-9
99.9%
Rashad Saxton run for 1 yd to the SavSt 37 SAVANNAH ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Jamichael Baldwin) to the SavSt 27Similar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.9%
D'Vonn Gibbons pass intercepted Sheldrick Redwine return for no gain to the MiaFl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
99.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass intercepted Desmond Young return for 13 yds to the MiaFl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 21MISSED FG4 plays · 2 yds · 1:430% → 0%
Q3 6:36
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+36
99.9%
Giovanni Lugo 36 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jaquan Johnson N/A return for a loss of 20 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22TD8 plays · 80 yds · 2:57100% → 100%
Q3 3:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
100.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 7 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:39
4TH & 9
OWN 16
+48
100.0%
Giovanni Lugo punt for 48 yds , Jeff Thomas returns for 48 yds to the SavSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24TD2 plays · 16 yds · 0:12100% → 100%
SAVDrive 25INT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:520% → 0%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
100.0%
TJ Bell pass intercepted Jhavonte Dean return for 11 yds to the SavSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 26TD4 plays · 32 yds · 1:47100% → 100%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
100.0%
Cade Weldon pass complete to Brian Polendey for 14 yds to the SavSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 27PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 2:050% → 0%
Q4 11:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+42
100.0%
Giovanni Lugo punt for 57 yds , Jeff Thomas returns for 42 yds to the SavSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 28DOWNS6 plays · 21 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
100.0%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Marquez Ezzard for 17 yds to the SavSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 29PUNT TD5 plays · 5 yds · 2:070% → 0%
SAVDrive 30FUMBLE2 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
100.0%
D'Vonn Gibbons run for a loss of 1 yard to the SavSt 24 D'Vonn Gibbons fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Waynmon SteedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 31TD3 plays · 24 yds · 1:03100% → 100%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
100.0%
Robert Burns run for a loss of 1 yard to the SavSt 25 for a 1ST down SAVANNAH ST Penalty, face mask (13 yards) (13 Yards) to the SavSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Jarren Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Alejandro Cardenas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 32PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 33TD1 play · 64 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
100.0%
Lorenzo Lingard run for 64 yds for a TD (Alejandro Cardenas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 34END OF GAME7 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:22
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 67 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)
+0.1
TD · Q2 9:08
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 8 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)
+0.1