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SAM

Samford 26 at Florida State 36

FSU
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadSAM aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreSAM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:29 · Logan Tyler punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kelvin McKnight at the Samf 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 153Pregame prior+21.5Home team on offense−1.7Score differential−1.9Garbage-time factor−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:37: Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 27 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK) — SAM win probability +2.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: SAM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:19: Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 17 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 7:58: Mitchell Fineran 36 yd FG GOOD — SAM win probability +10.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: SAM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:03: Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 5 yds for a TD, (Deondre Francois pass to Nyqwan Murray for Two-Point Conversion) — FSU win probability +46.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:23: Devlin Hodges pass intercepted for a TD Levonta Taylor return for 63 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +26.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: SAM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10SAM made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:41FSU 4th & 12 at FSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:55FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:23FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 41, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:50SAM 4th & 1 at SAM 29, up 13
    Close callPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:32SAM 4th & 10 at FSU 13, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:34FSU 4th & 18 at SAM 39, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    92.0%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:17FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 35, down 9
    Close callPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:52SAM 4th & 4 at SAM 35, up 9
    Close callPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:52FSU 4th & 8 at SAM 23, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    77.7%−3.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:09SAM 4th & 1 at SAM 34, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:10FSU 4th & 1 at SAM 40, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    80.0%−3.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    80.3%−3.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:02SAM 4th & 10 at FSU 45, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    17.5%−1.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:41FSU 4th & 8 at FSU 12, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−2.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:23SAM 4th & 9 at SAM 47, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:29FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 46, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:59FSU 4th & 7 at SAM 25, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−2.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    51.9%−14.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:58SAM 4th & 10 at FSU 19, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−3.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−20.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:51SAM 4th & 7 at SAM 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.3%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5SAM made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:23SAM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:49SAM Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:03FSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:56FSU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:37SAM Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:19FSU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:03FSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 2.0 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    70.1%−2.0
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:23FSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:5198% → 98%
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
98.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Cam Akers for 1 yd to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+11
98.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 11 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
98.2%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-4
98.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Cam Akers for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 12
OWN 28
0
98.1%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:41
4TH & 12
OWN 28
+17
98.1%
Logan Tyler punt for 43 yds , Kelvin McKnight returns for 17 yds to the Samf 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 2TD
1 play · 54 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
98.0%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 54 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0798% → 98%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
98.0%
Amir Rasul run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+2
97.9%
Deondre Francois run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
97.8%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:55
4TH & 6
OWN 25
+5
97.8%
Logan Tyler punt for 55 yds , Kelvin McKnight returns for 5 yds to the Samf 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 4TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:562% → 3%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.8%
SAMFORD Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Samf 20Similar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+19
97.7%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 19 yds to the Samf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
97.7%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 9 yds to the Samf 48Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+8
97.6%
Roland Adams run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
97.5%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Clarke Miller for 14 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
97.4%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Clarke Miller for 5 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+13
97.4%
Devlin Hodges shovel pass pass complete to Andrew Harris for loss of 2 yards to the FS27, Yassar El-Amin for 2 yards to the FS25 (Demarcus Christmas), PENALTY FS face mask (Demarcus Christmas) 13 yards to the FS12, 1ST DOWN SAM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
97.2%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 5 yds to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+5
97.2%
Devlin Hodges middle pass incomplete to Kelvin McKnight, PENALTY FS pass interference (Stanford Samuels) 5 yards to the FS2, 1ST DOWN SAM, NO PLAY, clock 07:55.Similar
Q1 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.8%
Roland Adams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:0397% → 97%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.9%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
96.9%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
96.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for 8 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
96.8%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
96.7%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
96.7%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete, broken up by Ahmad GoodenSimilar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
96.6%
Logan Tyler punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:524% → 4%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
96.2%
Roland Adams run for 4 yds to the Samf 24Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
96.0%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Chris Shelling for 5 yds to the Samf 29Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
95.9%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Kelvin McKnightSimilar
Q1 4:50
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+8
95.9%
Devlin Hodges punt for 37 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 8 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7TD
4 plays · 58 yds · 0:3996% → 97%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
96.1%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+10
95.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to George Campbell for 10 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+26
95.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to George Campbell for 26 yds to the Samf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
96.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 27 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 8FG
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:134% → 5%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.2%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Clarke Miller for 5 yds to the Samf 30Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
96.0%
Roland Adams run for 2 yds to the Samf 32Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+55
95.9%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Andrew Harris for 55 yds to the FlaSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
95.6%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Kelvin McKnightSimilar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
95.6%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Kelvin McKnightSimilar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
95.5%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kevin Marion for no gain to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q1 1:32
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
95.2%
Mitchell Fineran 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:1595% → 96%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
94.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+27
94.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 27 yds to the Samf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
94.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd to the Samf 41Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+10
94.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 10 yds to the Samf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
94.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 13 yds to the Samf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
94.6%
Jacques Patrick run for 9 yds to the Samf 9Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+1
94.6%
Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd to the Samf 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
95.8%
Deondre Francois run for 8 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 10INT
11 plays · 46 yds · 2:025% → 6%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.2%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Clarke Miller, broken up by A.J. WestbrookSimilar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
95.2%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Kelvin McKnight, broken up by Stanford Samuels IIISimilar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+26
95.2%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Chris Shelling for 26 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
94.7%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Clarke Miller, broken up by Dontavious JacksonSimilar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+11
94.8%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kentre'vious Williams for 11 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
94.6%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kentre'vious Williams for 5 yds to the FlaSt 33 SAMFORD Penalty, Offensive holding (Roland Adams) to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+10
94.6%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 10 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+4
94.1%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 4 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+33
94.3%
Devlin Hodges pass intercepted A.J. Westbrook return for 33 yds to the Samf 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5395% → 94%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
95.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 17 yds to the Samf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
95.4%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Cam AkersSimilar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
95.3%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the Samf 31Similar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 10
OPP 31
-8
94.9%
Deondre Francois sacked by Ahmad Gooden for a loss of 8 yards to the Samf 39 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:34
4TH & 18
OPP 39
0
94.4%
Logan Tyler punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Kelvin McKnight at the Samf 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 12TD
6 plays · 87 yds · 1:156% → 9%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
94.1%
Roland Adams run for 5 yds to the Samf 18Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+9
94.0%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Roland Adams for 9 yds to the Samf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
93.8%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Kelvin McKnightSimilar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+41
93.9%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Andrew Harris for 41 yds to the FLORIDAST 32 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
92.7%
Moise Satine run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+27
90.6%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 27 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5891% → 90%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
90.9%
Deondre Francois run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+8
90.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 8 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
90.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for no gain to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
90.3%
Logan Tyler punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Kelvin McKnight at the Samf 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:3711% → 12%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
89.1%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Chris Shelling for 13 yds to the Samf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
88.4%
Roland Adams run for 6 yds to the Samf 35Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
87.6%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Moise Satine for no gain to the Samf 35Similar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
87.3%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Kelvin McKnight, broken up by A.J. LyttonSimilar
Q2 4:52
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
87.6%
Devlin Hodges punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15MISSED FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 2:4888% → 85%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
87.6%
Deondre Francois deep pass incomplete to Nyqwan Murray, PENALTY SAM pass interference (Koi Freeman) 15 yards to the FS40, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY, clock 04:40.Similar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
87.9%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+16
87.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 16 yds to the Samf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
87.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 20 yds to the Samf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
88.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd to the Samf 24Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-5
88.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Samf 29Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 14
OPP 29
+6
86.8%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the Samf 23Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
85.8%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+40
85.0%
Ricky Aguayo 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 16FUMBLE
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
84.3%
Roland Adams run for 2 yds to the Samf 25 Roland Adams fumbled, forced by Marvin Wilson, recovered by FlaSt Cyrus FaganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0786% → 92%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
86.3%
Jacques Patrick run for 8 yds to the Samf 17Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+17
91.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 17 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 18END OF HALF
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:2311% → 11%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.3%
Moise Satine run for no gain to the Samf 25Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
88.8%
Devlin Hodges wide receiver screen left pass complete to Moise Satine for loss of 5 yards to the SAM20 (Stanford Samuels), PENALTY FS roughing passer (Joshua Kaindoh) 15 yards to the SAM40, 1ST DOWN SAM, NO PLAY, clock 00:56.Similar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
87.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Samf 35Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 15
OWN 35
-5
88.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Samf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:3713% → 13%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.2%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 6 yds to the Samf 31Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
86.4%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Andrew HarrisSimilar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
86.8%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Jai'Rus Creamer for 3 yds to the Samf 34Similar
Q3 14:09
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
87.1%
Devlin Hodges punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:1087% → 86%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
87.2%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+9
87.9%
Cam Akers run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
87.3%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+6
87.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 6 yds to the Samf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
87.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for 3 yds to the Samf 46Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+2
87.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 2 yds to the Samf 44Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+4
87.0%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the Samf 40Similar
Q3 11:10
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
86.2%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the Samf 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:5817% → 16%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
82.9%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Clarke MillerSimilar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
83.2%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 15 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
81.8%
Moise Satine run for no gain to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
81.4%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Clarke MillerSimilar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
82.4%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Andrew HarrisSimilar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
83.7%
Devlin Hodges punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22FUMBLE
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:5484% → 84%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
83.7%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+6
83.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Cam Akers for 6 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+17
82.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 17 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
83.8%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tre' McKittySimilar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-2
83.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Cam Akers for a loss of 2 yards Cam Akers fumbled, forced by Christian Stark, recovered by Samf Jordan MontgomerySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 23INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:2421% → 21%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
78.8%
Roland Adams run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+4
78.2%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Clarke Miller for 4 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 4
OPP 29
0
79.0%
Devlin Hodges pass intercepted Kyle Meyers return for no gain to the FlaSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4482% → 78%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
81.5%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 8
OWN 12
-6
80.5%
Deondre Francois crossing pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 14 yards to the FS26 (Jordan Montgomery), PENALTY FS holding (Cole Minshew) 6 yards to the FS6, NO PLAY, clock 06:40.Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 14
OWN 6
+6
79.7%
Jacques Patrick run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 8
OWN 12
0
78.3%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q3 5:41
4TH & 8
OWN 12
+8
77.8%
Logan Tyler punt for 50 yds , Kelvin McKnight returns for 8 yds to the Samf 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5025% → 23%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
75.0%
Montrell Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the Samf 45Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+4
74.8%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Andrew Harris for 4 yds to the Samf 49Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-2
73.7%
Andrew Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the Samf 47Similar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
76.6%
Devlin Hodges punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 3:0677% → 72%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
77.2%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+17
75.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 17 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
76.1%
Deondre Francois sideline pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 8 yards to the 50 yardline, out-of-bounds (Jamond Glass), PENALTY FS holding off-setting, PENALTY SAM targeting off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
78.0%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-5
78.1%
Jacques Patrick rush left for 16 yards to the SAM39, out-of-bounds (Christian Stark), PENALTY FS illegal formation 5 yards to the FS40, NO PLAY, clock 02:03.Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 12
OWN 40
-5
75.3%
Deondre Francois deep pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 32 yards to the SAM28 (Ty Herring), PENALTY FS ineligible downfield on pass (Tre' McKitty) 5 yards to the FS35, NO PLAY, clock 01:34.Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 17
OWN 35
+11
73.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Cam Akers for 11 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q3 0:29
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
74.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to George CampbellSimilar
Q3 0:29
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
72.0%
Logan Tyler punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kelvin McKnight at the Samf 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 27INT
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:4231% → 43%
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
68.6%
Montrell Washington run for 1 yd to the Samf 12Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+20
68.2%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 20 yds to the Samf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
66.2%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Kelvin McKnightSimilar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
66.3%
Roland Adams run for 3 yds to the Samf 35Similar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+10
66.0%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Andrew Harris for 10 yds to the Samf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
61.2%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kevin Marion for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 5
50
+17
59.6%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Chris Shelling for 17 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
57.3%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kentre'vious Williams for 4 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
56.8%
Devlin Hodges pass intercepted, touchback. Kyle Meyers return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 28MISSED FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:0767% → 66%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
67.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 14 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
67.2%
Cam Akers run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
70.7%
Deondre Francois run for 12 yds to the Samf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
70.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Cam Akers for 1 yd to the Samf 39Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+11
70.3%
Deondre Francois crossing pass incomplete to D.J. Matthews, PENALTY SAM pass interference (Ty Herring) 11 yards to the SAM28, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY, clock 10:39.Similar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
71.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 3 yds to the Samf 25Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
71.3%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Cam AkersSimilar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
69.0%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q4 9:59
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
66.2%
Ricky Aguayo 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 29FG
8 plays · 56 yds · 1:4743% → 60%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
57.3%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Chris Shelling for 9 yds to the Samf 34Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
54.5%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 7 yds to the Samf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
51.9%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 19 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+21
50.3%
Moise Satine run for 21 yds to the FlaSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
47.5%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Clarke Miller, broken up by Marvin WilsonSimilar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
47.8%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Andrew HarrisSimilar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
50.1%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Chris Shelling, broken up by Jaiden WoodbeySimilar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
40.1%
Mitchell Fineran 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 30TD
15 plays · 82 yds · 3:4145% → 85%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
44.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+25
44.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Cam Akers for 25 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
47.2%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
43.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 6
50
+21
44.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 21 yds to the Samf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
48.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to D.J. Matthews TEAM fumbled,Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+10
48.2%
Deondre Francois deep pass incomplete to D.J. Matthews, PENALTY SAM holding (Jordan Montgomery) 10 yards to the SAM19, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY, clock 06:09.Similar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
47.7%
Cam Akers run for 9 yds to the Samf 10Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+5
49.0%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the Samf 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-7
46.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for a loss of 7 yards to the Samf 12Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+7
45.0%
Cam Akers run for 7 yds to the Samf 5Similar
Q4 4:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
85.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 5 yds for a TD, (Deondre Francois pass to Nyqwan Murray for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 31INT TD
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:3026% → 6%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
73.8%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Andrew Harris for 12 yds to the Samf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
71.4%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 5 yds to the Samf 42Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+15
68.1%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 15 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
68.0%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Moise Satine for 2 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+63
94.4%
Devlin Hodges pass intercepted for a TD Levonta Taylor return for 63 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 32DOWNS
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:144% → 4%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.6%
Montrell Washington run for 2 yds to the Samf 27Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
95.4%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Moise Satine for a loss of 2 yards to the Samf 25Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.0%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Roland Adams for 3 yds to the Samf 28Similar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
96.1%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Kelvin McKnightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 33END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Samf 30Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 12
OPP 30
-1
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Samf 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:03
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 5 yds for a TD, (Deondre Francois pass to Nyqwan Murray for Two-Point Conversion)
+46.8
TD · Q4 2:23
Devlin Hodges pass intercepted for a TD Levonta Taylor return for 63 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
+26.4
FG · Q4 7:58
Mitchell Fineran 36 yd FG GOOD
-10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com