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DUKE

Duke 21 at Northwestern 7

NU
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:26 · Jake Collins punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 81Home team on offense−12.8Score differential−6.4Garbage-time factor−3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7Pregame prior+2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:57: Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 9 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK) — DUKE win probability +5.8 pts (now 47%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:40: Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 52 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK) — DUKE win probability +11.8 pts (now 55%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:18: Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 7 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK) — DUKE win probability +11.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 9:14: Jones, D pass complete to Rahming, T.J. for 3 yards to the DU14 (Hartage, Montre), PENALTY DU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the DU6, NO PLAY. — DUKE win probability +8.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:25: Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Brittain Brown — DUKE win probability +5.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10DUKE made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 9:35DUKE 4th & 4 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:41NU 4th & 9 at DUKE 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:55DUKE 4th & 1 at NU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    37.7%−0.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:29DUKE 4th & 4 at NU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    42.5%−0.5
    49% to make
    Punt
    42.0%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:40NU 4th & 9 at DUKE 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    48.4%−0.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    48.7%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:26NU 4th & 3 at NU 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:36DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−1.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:19NU 4th & 3 at DUKE 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    31.0%−1.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    30.6%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:19NU 4th & 4 at DUKE 4, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    32.0%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    25.4%−7.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:14DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:26NU 4th & 10 at DUKE 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    23.5%−1.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:37DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 8, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:41NU 4th & 11 at DUKE 31, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.6%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    21.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00DUKE 4th & 14 at DUKE 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−3.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:48NU 4th & 16 at DUKE 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    17.0%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:34DUKE 4th & 20 at DUKE 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−4.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:54NU 4th & 10 at midfield, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:40DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:32NU 4th & 4 at DUKE 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    6.4%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−0.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:43DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:50NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:57DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:40DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:18DUKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 5:1055% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
54.6%
Jeremy Larkin run for no gain to the Nwest 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
54.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 6 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+8
54.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 8 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
54.6%
Flynn Nagel run for no gain to the Nwest 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
54.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 5 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+12
54.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 12 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
54.6%
Jeremy Larkin run for 4 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
54.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for no gain to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+40
54.6%
Jeremy Larkin run for 40 yds to the Duke 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
54.6%
John Moten IV run for 2 yds to the Duke 2Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
57.7%
Jeremy Larkin run for 2 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
57.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 9 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
56.6%
Brittain Brown run for 10 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
56.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 3 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+3
56.5%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 4
50
0
56.5%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:35
4TH & 4
50
0
56.9%
Austin Parker punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
58.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for 16 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
58.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Riley Lees for 9 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
58.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+5
58.5%
Jeremy Larkin run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
50
-1
58.7%
John Moten IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 49Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+2
58.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 2 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
58.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q1 7:41
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
57.8%
Jake Collins punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5841% → 47%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
59.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 18 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
58.7%
Brittain Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+2
59.0%
Brittain Brown run for 2 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+11
59.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 11 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
58.2%
Daniel Jones run for 8 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 2
OPP 38
0
58.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Noah Gray for no gain to the Nwest 38Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+1
58.1%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 37Similar
Q1 4:55
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+3
58.7%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+17
57.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 17 yds to the Nwest 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
57.6%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+1
57.6%
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd to the Nwest 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+7
59.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 7 yds to the Nwest 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
58.4%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 9Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
52.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 9 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0056% → 57%
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
56.0%
Jeremy Larkin run for 7 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+5
56.7%
Jeremy Larkin run for 5 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
56.3%
Jeremy Larkin run for 4 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+5
57.1%
TJ Green pass intercepted Michael Carter II return for 5 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
53.1%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+4
52.4%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 2
OPP 31
-2
53.1%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 33Similar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 4
OPP 33
0
54.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel Helm, broken up by Montre HartageSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
56.6%
Jeremy Larkin run for no gain to the Nwest 33Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+11
56.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 11 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-4
57.9%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Chris Rumph II for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+6
56.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for 6 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+25
56.7%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted for a 1ST down Marquis Waters return for 10 yds to the NORTHWSTRN 44 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, targeting (15 Yards) to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
1 play · 52 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
44.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 52 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9DOWNS
11 plays · 35 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.8%
Jeremy Larkin run for no gain to the Nwest 25Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
46.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+22
45.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 22 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
48.8%
Jeremy Larkin run for 7 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 3
OPP 46
0
49.5%
Jeremy Larkin run for no gain to the Duke 46Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+5
49.1%
Jeremy Larkin run for 5 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
49.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
49.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 1 yd to the Duke 40Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
48.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
46.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Jeremy LarkinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:1358% → 70%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
42.0%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
42.1%
Deon Jackson run for 6 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+5
42.1%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
41.6%
Deon Jackson run for 8 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+3
41.5%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+26
41.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Noah Gray for 26 yds to the Nwest 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
41.3%
Brittain Brown run for 2 yds to the Nwest 7Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
30.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 7 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:5232% → 30%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.9%
TJ Green pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
31.8%
Jeremy Larkin run for no gain to the Nwest 25Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
29.8%
TJ Green pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for 7 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
30.2%
Jake Collins punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:3171% → 69%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
29.2%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
29.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+2
29.1%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
31.0%
Austin Parker punt for 34 yds , Riley Lees returns for no gain to the Nwest 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:0032% → 33%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
32.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 3 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+17
33.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for 17 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
28.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 18 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
27.6%
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd to the Duke 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+1
27.4%
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
27.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
29.0%
Austin Parker punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15DOWNS
11 plays · 76 yds · 0:0028% → 30%
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
28.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to James Prather for 12 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
28.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 32 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
31.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
31.2%
Jeremy Larkin run for 2 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+5
30.9%
Jeremy Larkin run for 5 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q3 13:19
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+7
30.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 7 yds to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
31.9%
Jeremy Larkin run for 9 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, face mask (11 yards) (Tre Hornbuckle) to the Duke 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
31.9%
Jeremy Larkin run for 4 yds to the Duke 5Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
31.9%
Jeremy Larkin run for 1 yd to the Duke 4Similar
Q3 13:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
31.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q3 13:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
-7
30.4%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Drew Jordan for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
22.0%
Jones, D pass complete to Rahming, T.J. for 3 yards to the DU14 (Hartage, Montre), PENALTY DU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the DU6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+8
22.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 8 yds to the Duke 14Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
21.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan Lloyd, broken up by Greg Newsome IISimilar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+3
22.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 3 yds to the Duke 17Similar
Q3 9:14
4TH & 4
OWN 17
+3
23.1%
Austin Parker punt for 32 yds , Riley Lees returns for 3 yds to the Duke 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 23%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
24.9%
Jeremy Larkin run for no gain to the Duke 46Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
24.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
24.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q3 7:26
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
23.1%
Jake Collins punt for 43 yds, downed at the Duke 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
19.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 6 yds to the Duke 9Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 4
OWN 9
+1
19.1%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 10Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 3
OWN 10
-2
19.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 8Similar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 5
OWN 8
0
19.9%
Austin Parker punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
50
-5
21.6%
TJ Green sacked by Terrell Lucas for a loss of 5 yards to the Nwest 45Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+6
20.2%
Jeremy Larkin run for 6 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+9
21.4%
Green, TJ pass complete to Lees, Riley for 9 yards to the DU40 (Johnson, L), PENALTY DU pass interference (Johnson, L) 9 yards to the DU40, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
22.1%
Jeremy Larkin run for 10 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
22.7%
TJ Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-3
22.4%
Jeremy Larkin run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 13
OPP 33
+2
20.9%
TJ Green pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for 2 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 11
OPP 31
0
20.3%
TJ Green pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2585% → 85%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
14.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Brittain BrownSimilar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+7
14.9%
Brittain Brown run for 7 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 3
OWN 38
-11
14.2%
Daniel Jones sacked by Joe Gaziano for a loss of 11 yards to the Duke 27Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
14.6%
Austin Parker punt for 38 yds for a 1ST down , Riley Lees returns for no gain to the Duke 27 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, kick catching interference (17 Yards) to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0018% → 16%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
18.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 6 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 4
OWN 0
0
14.9%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to McGowan, Kyric (Humphreys, B), PENALTY NU illegal formation off-setting, PENALTY DU pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+8
18.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 8 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-8
19.0%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Joe Giles-Harris and Victor Dimukeje for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 18
OPP 42
+2
17.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to James Prather for 2 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 16
OPP 40
0
16.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Jeremy Larkin, broken up by Joe Giles-HarrisSimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 16
OPP 40
0
16.2%
Jake Collins punt for 35 yds, downed at the Duke 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
10.7%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 5Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 11
OWN 5
+3
10.8%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 8Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 8
OWN 8
+25
11.2%
Quentin Harris run for 25 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
10.5%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-8
10.5%
Quentin Harris sacked by Joe Gaziano for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 27Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 16
OWN 27
-4
11.1%
Quentin Harris sacked by Jordan Thompson for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 23Similar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 20
OWN 23
+6
11.3%
Austin Parker punt for 46 yds , Riley Lees returns for 6 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
8.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman, broken up by Michael Carter IISimilar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
8.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 5 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+8
9.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
50
0
9.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 10
50
0
9.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Jeremy LarkinSimilar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 10
50
0
8.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Jeremy LarkinSimilar
Q4 8:54
4TH & 10
50
0
8.4%
Jake Collins punt for 32 yds, fair catch by T.J. Rahming at the Duke 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 1:4594% → 95%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
6.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Deon Jackson for 13 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
6.5%
Deon Jackson run for 8 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+3
6.1%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
6.1%
Brittain Brown run for no gain to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
4.8%
T.J. Rahming run for no gain to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+2
4.8%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
4.6%
Austin Parker punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
2.5%
TJ Green pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 16 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
2.6%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (J.B. Butler) to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
2.7%
TJ Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+7
2.7%
TJ Green pass complete to Jeremy Larkin for 7 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+14
2.6%
TJ Green pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 14 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
2.8%
TJ Green pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 5 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
3.0%
TJ Green pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+1
2.9%
TJ Green run for 1 yd to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
2.8%
TJ Green pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2197% → 98%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
2.6%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
2.7%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-1
1.6%
Quentin Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 43Similar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
1.7%
Austin Parker punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 27END OF GAME
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+18
1.1%
TJ Green pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 18 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
1.2%
TJ Green pass incomplete to Flynn Nagel, broken up by Michael Carter IISimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+10
1.2%
TJ Green pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 10 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
1.2%
Jeremy Larkin run for 8 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 2
OPP 49
0
1.3%
TJ Green pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+5
1.2%
TJ Green pass complete to Jelani Roberts for 5 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:40
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 52 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)
-11.8
TD · Q2 2:18
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 7 yds for a TD (Collin Wareham KICK)
-11.1
KEY PLAY · Q3 9:14
Jones, D pass complete to Rahming, T.J. for 3 yards to the DU14 (Hartage, Montre), PENALTY DU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the DU6, NO PLAY.
-8.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com