Try the model
VT

Virginia Tech 24 at Florida State 3

FSU
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2018 · Doak Campbell Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG—FSU 65.5%Brian Johnson 29 Yd Field GoalAWAY 10 - HOME 0 · Q1 7:52
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:52 · Brian Johnson 29 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 23Home team on offense−2.0Pregame prior+17.3Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:57: Eric Kumah 3 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Brian Johnson Kick) — VT win probability +10.3 pts (now 59%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:30: Josh Jackson pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 9 yds to the FlaSt 10 — VT win probability +4.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:45: Deshawn McClease run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 37 — VT win probability +4.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:41: Josh Jackson pass complete to Eric Kumah for 9 yds to the VTech 24 — VT win probability +5.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:11: Josh Jackson pass complete to Eric Kumah for 49 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +3.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9VT made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 7:52VT 4th & 10 at FSU 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−1.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:23FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:07VT 4th & 1 at VT 43, up 10
    Close callPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:47FSU 4th & 12 at VT 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−0.8
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    53.7%−2.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:59VT 4th & 9 at VT 21, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:26FSU 4th & 5 at VT 5, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.9%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    47.7%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:18VT 4th & 1 at VT 48, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:57FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:30VT 4th & 10 at VT 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:39FSU 4th & 3 at VT 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    40.1%−0.3
    74% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−4.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:35VT 4th & 4 at VT 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−1.7
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:32FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−0.9
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:07VT 4th & 29 at VT 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−3.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:54FSU 4th & 13 at FSU 4, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−3.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:51VT 4th & 10 at FSU 40, up 14
    Close callPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    75.7%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:52FSU 4th & 20 at FSU 2, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−4.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:44VT 4th & 1 at FSU 1, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    77.3%−4.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−16.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:09FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:00VT 4th & 6 at FSU 37, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    87.6%−1.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%−1.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:04VT 4th & 9 at VT 38, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 10:34VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:57VT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 5:11VT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2130% → 33%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
69.6%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 7 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
69.5%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 9 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
69.4%
Deshawn McClease run for 5 yds to the VTech 46Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+21
69.3%
Deshawn McClease run for 21 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
69.0%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Dalton KeeneSimilar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
69.0%
Deshawn McClease run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
68.8%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 3 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+7
68.7%
Terius Wheatley run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
68.5%
Steven Peoples run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
67.0%
Damon Hazelton 10 Yd pass from Josh Jackson (Brian Johnson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2FUMBLE
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:3067% → 67%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
67.4%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
67.3%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+24
66.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for 24 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
67.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 15
OWN 43
-8
66.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for a loss of 8 yards Nyqwan Murray fumbled, recovered by VTech Khalil LadlerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3FG
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:5734% → 35%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
65.8%
Josh Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+23
65.7%
Deshawn McClease run for 23 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
65.4%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Hezekiah GrimsleySimilar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
65.3%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Hezekiah GrimsleySimilar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
65.5%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+29
65.5%
Brian Johnson 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 3:1866% → 64%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
65.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jacques Patrick for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
65.3%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+12
64.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 12 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
65.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+9
64.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for 9 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-10
65.3%
Patrick, Jacques rush for 2 yards to the FLORIDAST42, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding 10 yards to the FLORIDAST30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 16
OWN 30
0
64.4%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+11
63.7%
Cam Akers run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q1 4:23
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
63.7%
Logan Tyler punt for 54 yds, downed at the VTech 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:5937% → 39%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
63.5%
Steven Peoples run for 1 yd to the VTech 6Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+2
63.3%
Steven Peoples run for 2 yds to the VTech 8Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+26
63.4%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Tre Turner for 26 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
61.8%
Steven Peoples run for 1 yd to the VTech 35Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+1
61.3%
Steven Peoples run for 1 yd to the VTech 36Similar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+7
61.3%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Sean Savoy for 7 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q1 1:07
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
60.8%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 36 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6MISSED FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:0760% → 57%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+37
59.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Khalan Laborn for 37 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
60.9%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 44Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+21
60.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for 21 yds to the VTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-9
61.3%
Deondre Francois sacked by Trevon Hill for a loss of 9 yards to the VTech 32Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 19
OPP 32
+4
60.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 4 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 15
OPP 28
+15
59.4%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the VTech 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
60.3%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 5 yards to the VTech 18Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 15
OPP 18
+3
59.4%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the VTech 15Similar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 12
OPP 15
0
58.5%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q2 12:47
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+32
57.1%
Ricky Aguayo 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:4443% → 42%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
57.5%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Eric Kumah for 19 yds to the VTech 39 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the VTech 24Similar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 6
OWN 24
-1
57.6%
Josh Jackson sacked by Brian Burns and A.J. Westbrook for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 23Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-5
57.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 18Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+3
57.4%
Deshawn McClease run for 3 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
57.7%
Josh Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
58.1%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 49 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 3:2156% → 57%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
55.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+3
55.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+9
55.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 9 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
55.7%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
55.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 7 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+17
55.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 17 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
56.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+30
56.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 30 yds to the VTech 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
56.7%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 6Similar
Q2 8:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
56.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for no gain to the VTech 6Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
55.7%
Deondre Francois run for 1 yd to the VTech 5Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
53.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q2 7:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
56.6%
Ricky Aguayo 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:5946% → 48%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
54.4%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Phil Patterson for 14 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
52.4%
Deshawn McClease run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 36Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+5
54.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the VTech 41Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
52.0%
Josh Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:48
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+7
52.5%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Phil Patterson for 7 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
52.5%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 43 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10PUNT TD
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0353% → 41%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
53.3%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 8
OWN 2
-10
53.0%
Deondre Francois sacked by Trevon Hill for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaSt 2 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-1 Yards) to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q2 4:12
3RD & 18
OWN 1
+13
51.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 13 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q2 3:57
4TH & 5
OWN 14
+3
41.4%
Eric Kumah 3 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Brian Johnson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.1%
Deondre Francois pass intercepted Caleb Farley return for no gain to the VTech 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1759% → 58%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
41.4%
Josh Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
41.3%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
41.9%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Chris CunninghamSimilar
Q2 3:30
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
42.4%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 44 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · 57 yds · 1:4441% → 41%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
41.4%
Jacques Patrick run for 18 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+32
42.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 32 yds to the VTech 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
43.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+6
42.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 6 yds to the VTech 20Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 2
OPP 20
-1
41.7%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 21Similar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 3
OPP 21
0
40.7%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:5163% → 63%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
37.5%
Deshawn McClease run for 5 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
36.6%
Josh Jackson run for no gain to the VTech 26Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+1
36.3%
Deshawn McClease run for 1 yd to the VTech 27Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
37.0%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 44 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:1737% → 35%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
36.7%
Deondre Francois run for no gain to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
36.0%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+19
35.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 19 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1337% → 35%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
36.6%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
35.8%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+11
35.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 11 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
35.4%
Logan Tyler punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:1367% → 72%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
33.3%
Deshawn McClease run for 4 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
32.7%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (5 Yards) to the VTech 40Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+15
31.0%
Terius Wheatley run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
30.3%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 12 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
28.7%
Deshawn McClease run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 18
OPP 41
-11
28.4%
Josh Jackson sacked by Brian Burns for a loss of 11 yards to the VTech 48Similar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 29
OWN 48
0
28.1%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 45 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1330% → 28%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
29.9%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 13
OWN 4
0
28.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jacques Patrick for no gain to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 13
OWN 4
0
27.7%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:54
4TH & 13
OWN 4
0
27.6%
Logan Tyler punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4476% → 77%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
24.0%
Jalen Holston run for no gain to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-8
23.1%
Josh Jackson sacked by Cory Durden for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 18
OPP 48
+8
23.4%
Jalen Holston run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q3 6:51
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
23.1%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Nyqwan Murray at the FlaSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:4626% → 22%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
25.6%
Deondre Francois sacked by Caleb Farley for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 12
OWN 10
0
24.9%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 12
OWN 10
-8
23.7%
Deondre Francois sacked by TyJuan Garbutt for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q3 4:52
4TH & 20
OWN 2
+18
22.3%
Logan Tyler punt for 35 yds , C.J. Carroll returns for 18 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:4682% → 84%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
18.1%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 9 yds to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 1
OPP 10
-1
17.6%
Josh Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+3
17.7%
Steven Peoples run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
17.2%
Josh Jackson run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
16.4%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
+9
16.0%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Eric Kumah for 9 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q3 1:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+10
16.1%
Steven Peoples run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q3 0:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
16.5%
Steven Peoples run for no gain to the FlaSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2118% → 16%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
17.9%
Jacques Patrick run for no gain to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
17.2%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:34
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+4
16.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 4 yds to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 6
OWN 5
0
16.4%
Logan Tyler punt for 36 yds , C.J. Carroll returns for no gain to the FlaSt 41 C.J. Carroll fumbled, recovered by VTech C.J. CarrollSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4588% → 89%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
11.7%
Deshawn McClease run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-2
10.3%
Sean Savoy run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 42 Sean Savoy fumbled, recovered by VTechSimilar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+5
10.8%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Phil Patterson for 5 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q4 12:00
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
11.3%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 28 yds, downed at the FlaSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · 76 yds · 1:5715% → 13%
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+85
14.9%
Cam Akers run for 85 yds to the VTech 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
18.7%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the VTech 6Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
16.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre' McKitty for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 10Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
12.8%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 5 yards to the VTech 15 Cam Akers fumbled, recovered by VTech Dax HollifieldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 25TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 3:3093% → 99%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
7.4%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Eric Kumah for 9 yds to the VTech 24Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+6
7.0%
Steven Peoples run for 6 yds to the VTech 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
6.9%
Steven Peoples run for 6 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+12
5.9%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Chris Cunningham for 12 yds to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
5.1%
Steven Peoples run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+2
4.7%
Steven Peoples run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 2
OPP 44
-5
4.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+49
0.9%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Eric Kumah for 49 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:031% → 1%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
1.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 5 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
1.2%
Deondre Francois pass intercepted Caleb Farley return for no gain to the VTech 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:5199% → 100%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
0.8%
Deshawn McClease run for 3 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-3
0.7%
Deshawn McClease run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 34 Deshawn McClease fumbled, recovered by VTech Josh JacksonSimilar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+4
0.8%
Steven Peoples run for 4 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q4 2:04
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
0.5%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 42 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 28INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:451% → 1%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
0.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 3 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-1
0.8%
Deondre Francois sacked by TEAM for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
0.7%
Deondre Francois pass intercepted Vinny Mihota return for no gain to the FlaSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:38100% → 100%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 22
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:57
Eric Kumah 3 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Brian Johnson Kick)
-10.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 8:41
Josh Jackson pass complete to Eric Kumah for 9 yds to the VTech 24
-5.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 13:45
Deshawn McClease run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 37
-4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com