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MIA

Miami 17 at LSU 33

LSU
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2018 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:40 · Malik Rosier sacked by Breiden Fehoko for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 173Home team on offense+26.0Score differential+9.8Pregame prior−1.2Garbage-time factor+6.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.1Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:35: Nick Brossette 50 Yd Run (Cole Tracy Kick) — LSU win probability +6.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:21: Nick Brossette 1 Yd Run (Cole Tracy Kick) — LSU win probability +8.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 4:56: Cole Tracy 21 Yd Field Goal — LSU win probability +10.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:21: Jacob Phillips 45 Yd Interception Return (Cole Tracy Kick) — LSU win probability +10.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:43: Brian Hightower 32 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Bubba Baxa Kick) — MIA win probability +7.3 pts (now 9%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 9MIA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 13:00MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:26LSU 4th & 15 at MIA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:49MIA 4th & 7 at LSU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    51.7%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:11LSU 4th & 11 at LSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:51MIA 4th & 6 at LSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    52.3%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:42MIA 4th & 11 at MIA 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:44LSU 4th & 1 at MIA 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.7%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:22MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 34, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:56LSU 4th & 3 at MIA 3, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.7%−1.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    59.7%−9.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:57MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 42, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:52LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 34, up 24
    Close callPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:57MIA 4th & 11 at MIA 26, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:32LSU 4th & 3 at MIA 3, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.1%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−5.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:51LSU 4th & 5 at MIA 36, up 27
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:02LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 29, up 23
    Close callPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:51MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 27, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.7%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:40MIA 4th & 10 at LSU 40, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:59LSU 4th & 7 at MIA 38, up 16
    Close callPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:34MIA 4th & 13 at MIA 19, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.6%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:35LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:21LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:21LSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:57MIA Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:43MIA Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:0066% → 65%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
34.4%
Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-4
34.6%
Malik Rosier run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+4
35.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Travis Homer for 4 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q1 13:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
35.3%
Zach Feagles punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2FG
10 plays · 22 yds · 4:3435% → 37%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
35.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Lanard Fournette for 5 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 5
OPP 42
-5
35.8%
Curry, Chris rush for 6 yards to the MIAMI36, PENALTY LSU illegal formation 5 yards to the MIAMI47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
36.1%
Chris Curry run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+26
36.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Dee Anderson for 11 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (Trajan Bandy) to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST down. Bandy ejected for targeting.Similar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
36.9%
Brossette, Nick rush for 5 yards to the MIAMI15, PENALTY LSU holding (Jefferson, Justin) 10 yards to the MIAMI30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 20
OPP 30
+2
37.0%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 18
OPP 28
+3
37.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 3 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 15
OPP 25
0
37.0%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 15
OPP 25
+43
37.2%
Cole Tracy 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 1:3762% → 63%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
37.7%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 16 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+36
37.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 36 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
36.9%
Malik Rosier run for 3 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
37.1%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Brian HightowerSimilar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
37.5%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Jeff ThomasSimilar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+38
37.0%
Bubba Baxa 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:3038% → 37%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
37.6%
Joe Burrow sacked by Gerald Willis III for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 26Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 11
OWN 26
0
37.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the LSU 26Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 11
OWN 26
0
37.4%
Joe Burrow pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 11
OWN 26
0
37.2%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 44 yds, fair catch by DeeJay Dallas at the MiaFl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5MISSED FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:2063% → 62%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
37.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to DeeJay Dallas for 13 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
36.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Mike Harley for 8 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+5
36.7%
DeeJay Dallas run for 5 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
36.9%
Malik Rosier run for 4 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+8
36.9%
DeeJay Dallas run for 8 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
36.7%
Trayone Gray run for 4 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
36.4%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
36.9%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q1 1:51
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+45
37.8%
Bubba Baxa 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 1:1640% → 48%
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
39.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the LSU 28Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+15
39.9%
Burrow, Joe pass incomplete to Jefferson, Justin, PENALTY MIAMI roughing passer (Jackson, Demetrius) 15 yards to the LSU43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
41.2%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Derrick DillonSimilar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
40.9%
Joe Burrow pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+12
40.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 12 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
41.9%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
41.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Tory Carter) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 15
50
+50
48.1%
Nick Brossette 50 Yd Run (Cole Tracy Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:5355% → 54%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
44.7%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 9 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-10
44.0%
Rosier, Malik rush for 12 yards to the MIAMI46, PENALTY MIAMI holding (St. Louis, Tyree) 10 yards to the MIAMI24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
45.3%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
45.9%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Brian HightowerSimilar
Q2 14:42
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
46.5%
Zach Feagles punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8TD
12 plays · 58 yds · 5:2149% → 64%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
49.4%
Chris Curry run for 2 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+2
49.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 2 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+5
49.7%
Joe Burrow run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q2 12:44
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+2
49.7%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
52.0%
Nick Brossette run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 6
OPP 43
-4
52.6%
Chris Curry run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+9
52.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 9 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+5
52.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tito Odenigbo) to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
54.5%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+10
54.5%
Nick Brossette run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+22
55.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 22 yds to the MiaFl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.0%
Nick Brossette 1 Yd Run (Cole Tracy Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5043% → 41%
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.9%
DeeJay Dallas run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
56.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Navaughn Donaldson) to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
57.7%
Malik Rosier run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
57.5%
DeeJay Dallas run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 7:22
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
58.6%
Zach Feagles punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10FG
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:2666% → 76%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+37
65.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 37 yds to the MiaFl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
66.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Offside (Pat Bethel) to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 5
OPP 14
+6
66.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
67.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
66.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 3Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
65.7%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q2 4:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
75.6%
Cole Tracy 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11INT TD
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:3532% → 22%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
67.7%
Travis Homer run for 17 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+45
78.2%
Jacob Phillips 45 Yd Interception Return (Cole Tracy Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:2421% → 18%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
79.2%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Darrell Langham for 8 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
78.2%
DeeJay Dallas run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
79.4%
DeeJay Dallas run for no gain to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
80.1%
DeeJay Dallas run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
81.8%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Jeff ThomasSimilar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
82.4%
Zach Feagles punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13END OF HALF
10 plays · 17 yds · 1:5788% → 90%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
88.4%
Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the LSU 7Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 7
OWN 7
-2
88.1%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 5Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 9
OWN 5
0
89.1%
Joe Burrow pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 9
OWN 5
+5
88.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Running Into Kicker (Mike Harley) to the LSU 10Similar
Q2 1:35
4TH & 4
OWN 10
+15
88.4%
Von Rosenberg, Zach punt 37 yards to the LSU47, out-of-bounds, PENALTY MIAMI personal foul (Rousseau, Gregory) 15 yards to the LSU25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
88.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-2
89.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 22Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-1
89.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5888% → 89%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
87.7%
Nick Brossette run for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
88.6%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 33Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
88.6%
Nick Brossette run for 1 yd to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 12:52
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
88.9%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 51 yds, fair catch by DeeJay Dallas at the MiaFl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:5512% → 8%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
88.4%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+12
88.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 12 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
88.9%
Malik Rosier run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-1
89.1%
Travis Homer run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 8
OWN 29
-5
91.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Hayden Mahoney) to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q3 10:27
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+2
91.4%
Malik Rosier run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 11
OWN 26
+22
91.7%
Zach Feagles punt for 52 yds , Jonathan Giles returns for 22 yds to the LSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16FG
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:2592% → 99%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+23
92.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 23 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
92.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Dee Anderson for 9 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+18
92.9%
Nick Brossette run for 18 yds to the MiaFl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
93.1%
Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 3Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
93.5%
Joe Burrow pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
93.4%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Tory CarterSimilar
Q3 7:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
98.6%
Cole Tracy 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17INT
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:541% → 1%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
98.7%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Brevin JordanSimilar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
98.9%
DeeJay Dallas run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
98.8%
Trayone Gray run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
98.9%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Darrell LanghamSimilar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
98.9%
Travis Homer run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+6
99.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 6 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
99.0%
Travis Homer run for 1 yd to the LSU 48Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+29
99.1%
Malik Rosier pass intercepted John Battle return for 29 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3799% → 99%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.4%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
99.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
99.4%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Stephen SullivanSimilar
Q3 3:51
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+54
99.4%
Cole Tracy 54 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19TD
15 plays · 77 yds · 4:481% → 3%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
99.2%
Trayone Gray run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+15
99.5%
Rosier, Malik pass sacked for loss of 7 yards to the MIAMI18 (Phillips, Jacob), PENALTY LSU face mask (Phillips, Jacob) 15 yards to the MIAMI40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
99.4%
Travis Homer run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+3
99.5%
Travis Homer run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-5
99.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Navaughn Donaldson) to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q3 1:16
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+32
99.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 32 yds to the LSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
99.6%
Malik Rosier run for 4 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+2
99.6%
Malik Rosier run for 2 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+11
99.6%
Malik Rosier run for 11 yds to the LSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.6%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q4 14:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
99.6%
Malik Rosier run for 6 yds to the LSU 3Similar
Q4 13:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.4%
Malik Rosier 3 Yd Run (Bubba Baxa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:4498% → 99%
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
98.4%
Nick Brossette run for no gain to the LSU 11Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
98.5%
Joe Burrow pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+11
98.5%
Joe Burrow run for 11 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
98.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 7 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+1
98.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the LSU 30Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 2
OWN 30
-1
98.8%
Joe Burrow sacked by Jonathan Garvin for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
98.8%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 45 yds, fair catch by DeeJay Dallas at the MiaFl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 1:142% → 9%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
98.4%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Jeff ThomasSimilar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-8
98.5%
Malik Rosier sacked by K'Lavon Chaisson for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 18
OWN 18
+50
98.5%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 50 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
91.3%
Brian Hightower 32 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Bubba Baxa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:4195% → 96%
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
95.3%
Nick Brossette run for 13 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
95.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 7 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+1
96.2%
Nick Brossette run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 2
OPP 44
-3
96.2%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 32 yds · 1:504% → 3%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-15
95.8%
Malik Rosier sacked by Grant Delpit for a loss of 15 yards to the MiaFl 5 MIAMI FL Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Malik Rosier) to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 25
OWN 5
0
95.9%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 25
OWN 5
+22
96.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 22 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q4 5:51
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+6
95.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Darrell Langham for 6 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
95.7%
Rosier, Malik pass complete to Hightower, Brian for 8 yards to the MIAMI41, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Fulton, Kristian) 12 yards to the MIAMI45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
95.7%
Rosier, Malik pass incomplete to Njoku, Evidence, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Fulton, Kristian) 15 yards to the LSU40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
96.5%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
96.5%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Brevin JordanSimilar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
96.6%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Jeff ThomasSimilar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 10
OPP 40
-8
96.7%
Malik Rosier sacked by Breiden Fehoko for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:4198% → 99%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
97.5%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 46Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+13
98.1%
Nick Brossette run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
98.2%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-3
98.3%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+4
98.4%
Nick Brossette run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
99.3%
Josh Growden punt for 16 yds, downed at the MiaFl 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:251% → 1%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
99.1%
Malik Rosier run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
99.1%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 8
OWN 24
-5
99.2%
Malik Rosier sacked by Michael Divinity Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q4 0:34
4TH & 13
OWN 19
+5
99.2%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Mike Harley for 5 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 26Uncategorized
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
99.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:21
Jacob Phillips 45 Yd Interception Return (Cole Tracy Kick)
+10.5
FG · Q2 4:56
Cole Tracy 21 Yd Field Goal
+10
TD · Q2 9:21
Nick Brossette 1 Yd Run (Cole Tracy Kick)
+8.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com