2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadALCN aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreALCN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:50 · Pressley Harvin III punt for 48 yds, fair catch by De'Shawn Waller at the AlcSt 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 15:00: Jordan Mason run for 4 yds to the AlcSt 3 — ALCN win probability +0.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:49: TaQuon Marshall run for 1 yd for a TD (Shawn Davis PAT MISSED) — GT win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:47: KirVonte Benson run for 5 yds for a TD (Brenton King KICK) — GT win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:28: KirVonte Benson run for 8 yds for a TD (Brenton King KICK) — GT win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- FUMBLE · Q3 12:43: Marquise Forman run for a loss of 10 yards Marquise Forman fumbled, forced by Brandon Adams, recovered by GTech David Curry , return for 15 yds (Brenton King KICK) — GT win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALCN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ALCN made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
- Q1 14:55ALCN 4th & 8 at ALCN 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q1 12:08ALCN 4th & 4 at ALCN 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q1 9:32ALCN 4th & 8 at GT 40, down 7Close callPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.3%34% to convertField goal1.2%−<0.134% to makePuntTheir call1.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 6:50GT 4th & 5 at GT 25, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.5%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.6%average punt
- Q1 5:37ALCN 4th & 7 at ALCN 40, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.5%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q2 13:49ALCN 4th & 3 at ALCN 32, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.9%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q2 8:47ALCN 4th & 8 at ALCN 37, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q3 7:15ALCN 4th & 7 at GT 42, down 34Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%37% to convertField goal0.1%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 1:20ALCN 4th & 4 at ALCN 46, down 41Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 15:00GT 4th & 1 at ALCN 1, up 41Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%59% to convertField goal99.8%−0.294% to makePunt99.3%−0.6average punt
- Q4 3:07ALCN 4th & 1 at ALCN 28, down 41Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 12:08GT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:49GT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:47GT Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:28GT Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:07GT Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartALCNDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+2
99.4%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Juan Anthony Jr. for 2 yds to the AlcSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2TD4 plays · 68 yds · 1:2099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
GTDrive 4FUMBLE2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
ALCNDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+6
99.1%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Raidarious Anderson for 6 yds to the GTech 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
ALCNDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 13 yds · 0:001% → 1%
GTDrive 8TD9 plays · 81 yds · 4:2599% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
GTDrive 10TD9 plays · 44 yds · 3:4599% → 99%
ALCNDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 8:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
99.2%
Felix Harper pass complete to Charles Hughes for 5 yds to the AlcSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-3
99.1%
Felix Harper pass complete to Chris Blair for a loss of 3 yards to the AlcSt 37Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
99.2%
Felix Harper pass incomplete to Charles Hughes, broken up by Zamari WaltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12INT14 plays · 50 yds · 3:5499% → 99%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
99.2%
TaQuon Marshall pass incomplete to Qua Searcy, broken up by Qwynnterrio ColeSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
99.2%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to KirVonte Benson for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 49Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+3
99.3%
TaQuon Marshall pass intercepted Taurence Wilson return for 3 yds to the AlcSt 35 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 13INT3 plays · 13 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
99.0%
Felix Harper pass complete to LeCharles Pringle for 6 yds to the AlcSt 24Similar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+35
98.9%
Felix Harper pass intercepted Kaleb Oliver return for 25 yds to the GATECH 44 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Offensive holding (Malik Rivera) to the AlcSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14MISSED FG4 plays · 7 yds · 0:1199% → 99%
GTDrive 15TD4 plays · 77 yds · 1:2399% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 16FUMBLE TD3 plays · -10 yds · 0:451% → 0%
Q3 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.8%
Marquise Forman run for a loss of 10 yards Marquise Forman fumbled, forced by Brandon Adams, recovered by GTech David Curry , return for 15 yds (Brenton King KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 17PUNT14 plays · 37 yds · 5:230% → 0%
Q3 12:38
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+6
99.8%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Marquise Forman for 6 yds to the AlcSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+9
99.8%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Raidarious Anderson for 9 yds to the GTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-10
99.8%
Johnson, Noah pass complete to Wood, Nigel for no gain to the GT41, out-of-bounds (Jaytlin Askew), PENALTY ALCN holding (Darius, Davis) 10 yards to the ALCN49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 16
OWN 49
+9
99.9%
Noah Johnson pass complete to P.J. Simmons for 9 yds to the GTech 42Similar
Q3 7:15
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Corey McCullough punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GTech 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18TD8 plays · 97 yds · 3:17100% → 100%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
99.9%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Jalen Camp for 8 yds to the GTech 11Similar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
99.9%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Brad Stewart for 9 yds to the GTech 38Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+25
99.9%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Qua Searcy for 25 yds to the AlcSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
99.9%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Jalen Camp for 13 yds to the AlcSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
99.9%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Brad Stewart for 24 yds for a TD (Brenton King KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 19PUNT9 plays · 21 yds · 1:470% → 0%
Q3 3:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
Johnson, Noah pass incomplete to Boles, Jaquaveon (Kaleb Oliver), PENALTY GT pass interference (Kaleb Oliver) 15 yards to the ALCN40, 1ST DOWN ALCN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+5
99.9%
Noah Johnson pass complete to P.J. Simmons for 5 yds to the AlcSt 46Similar
Q3 1:20
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Corey McCullough punt for 46 yds , Juanyeh Thomas returns for no gain to the GTech 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20DOWNS17 plays · 91 yds · 0:31100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 21POSSESSION (FOR OT DRIVES)4 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
GTDrive 22FUMBLE3 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:21
3RD & 4
OPP 18
-1
100.0%
Pressley Harvin III run for a loss of 1 yard to the AlcSt 19 Pressley Harvin III fumbled, recovered by AlcSt Keyron Kinsler Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:28
KirVonte Benson run for 8 yds for a TD (Brenton King KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q2 8:47
KirVonte Benson run for 5 yds for a TD (Brenton King KICK)
+0.4
FUMBLE · Q3 12:43
Marquise Forman run for a loss of 10 yards Marquise Forman fumbled, forced by Brandon Adams, recovered by GTech David Curry , return for 15 yds (Brenton King KICK)
+0.4