Try the model
ARMY

Army 14 at Duke 34

DUKE
2018 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2018 · Wallace Wade Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:48 · Calen Holt run for 13 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 119Pregame prior+7.8Home team on offense+23.3Score differential+8.8Garbage-time factor+5.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:27: Daniel Jones 1 Yd Run (Collin Wareham Kick) — DUKE win probability +6.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:44: Kelvin Hopkins Jr. 3 Yd Run (Landon Salyers Kick) — ARMY win probability +9.8 pts (now 18%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:13: Deon Jackson 7 Yd Run (Collin Wareham Kick) — DUKE win probability +7.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:57: Camden Harrison 45 Yd pass from Kelvin Hopkins Jr. (Landon Salyers Kick) — ARMY win probability +10.3 pts (now 16%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:27: Aaron Young 25 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Collin Wareham Kick) — DUKE win probability +7.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARMY made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:26DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:54DUKE 4th & 5 at ARMY 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    80.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:31ARMY 4th & 5 at DUKE 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    18.7%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:42ARMY 4th & 1 at DUKE 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    16.6%−1.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    16.3%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:15ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.1%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:28ARMY 4th & 7 at DUKE 43, down 17
    Close callPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%−0.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:50ARMY 4th & 12 at ARMY 14, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:49DUKE 4th & 1 at ARMY 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.4%−2.0
    56% to make
    Punt
    83.2%−3.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:48ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 32, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:46ARMY 4th & 13 at DUKE 35, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    3.5%
    45% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:45ARMY 4th & 21 at DUKE 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.8
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:59DUKE 4th & 7 at ARMY 12, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:32ARMY 4th & 10 at ARMY 25, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 13:54DUKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:27DUKE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:44ARMY Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:13DUKE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:57ARMY Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:27DUKE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:2385% → 84%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
84.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 12
OWN 33
-5
84.6%
DUKE Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Duke 28Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 17
OWN 28
+13
84.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 13 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
84.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
84.3%
Austin Parker punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Mike Reynolds at the Army 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2FUMBLE
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:2916% → 16%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
84.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Glen Coates for 12 yds Glen Coates fumbled, forced by Dylan Singleton, recovered by Army for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
84.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Army 32 Darnell Woolfolk fumbled, forced by Victor Dimukeje, recovered by Duke Marquis WatersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3FG
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:4484% → 84%
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
84.3%
Brittain Brown run for 6 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 4
OPP 26
0
84.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+14
84.1%
Daniel Jones run for 14 yds to the Army 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
84.1%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Christian Harris) to the Army 17Similar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+9
84.0%
Daniel Jones run for 9 yds to the Army 8Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
83.9%
Daniel Jones run for no gain to the Army 8Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+1
83.7%
Quentin Harris run for 1 yd to the Army 7Similar
Q1 9:54
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+25
83.7%
Collin Wareham 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4MISSED FG
15 plays · 59 yds · 7:1217% → 18%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
83.5%
Calen Holt run for 8 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
83.3%
Andy Davidson run for 6 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
83.1%
Connor Slomka run for 8 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
83.0%
Connor Slomka run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
50
+2
82.7%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+14
82.5%
Calen Holt run for 14 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
82.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+6
81.9%
Kell Walker run for 6 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+6
82.0%
Calen Holt run for 6 yds to the Duke 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
81.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+3
81.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Duke 16Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
81.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Glen CoatesSimilar
Q1 2:31
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
81.6%
Landon Salyers 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:2882% → 85%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+35
81.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 35 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
82.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 15
50
+16
81.7%
Brittain Brown run for 16 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
82.5%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+5
82.4%
Brittain Brown run for 5 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+4
82.0%
Brittain Brown run for 4 yds to the Army 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
82.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+11
82.2%
Brittain Brown run for 11 yds to the Army 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
85.1%
Brittain Brown 12 Yd Run (Collin Wareham Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6FUMBLE
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:5815% → 17%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.6%
Kell Walker run for 2 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+29
84.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Camden Harrison for 29 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
83.6%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 7 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+2
83.5%
Calen Holt run for 2 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
83.4%
Connor Slomka run for no gain to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+1
84.0%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
83.0%
Calen Holt run for 4 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+1
83.0%
Kell Walker run for 1 yd to the Duke 29 Kell Walker fumbled, recovered by Duke Michael Carter IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7TD
3 plays · 71 yds · 0:5984% → 92%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
84.4%
Deon Jackson run for 9 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+61
84.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 61 yds to the Army 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.7%
Daniel Jones 1 Yd Run (Collin Wareham Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 32 yds · 5:5010% → 10%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 4 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
89.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd to the Army 30 Kelvin Hopkins Jr. fumbled, forced by Trevon McSwain, recovered by Army Austin SchuffertSimilar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
89.3%
Cam Thomas run for 4 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
89.6%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
89.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Glen Coates for 4 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
89.3%
Connor Slomka run for 4 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+9
89.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 9 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
89.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+1
89.2%
Andy Davidson run for 1 yd to the Duke 43Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
89.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Camden HarrisonSimilar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
90.2%
Zach Potter punt for 36 yds, fair catch by T.J. Rahming at the Duke 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9END OF HALF
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:2392% → 91%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+15
92.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 15 yds to the Duke 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
92.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 8 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+3
92.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 3 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
92.6%
Daniel Jones run for 7 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+2
92.4%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
91.3%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:579% → 8%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
90.7%
Kell Walker run for 1 yd to the Army 17Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+7
91.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 7 yds to the Army 24Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-10
90.9%
Kell Walker run for 4 yds to the Army 28 ARMY Penalty, Personal Foul (-14 Yards) to the Army 14Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 12
OWN 14
0
91.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 12
OWN 14
+15
92.0%
Nick Schrage punt for 46 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for 15 yds to the Army 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11FUMBLE
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:4792% → 92%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
91.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Brittain BrownSimilar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
91.8%
Brittain Brown run for 6 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 4
OPP 39
-6
92.2%
Daniel Jones sacked by James Gibson for a loss of 6 yards to the Army 45 Daniel Jones fumbled, forced by James Gibson, recovered by Army Wunmi Oyetuga , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12TD
12 plays · 55 yds · 6:149% → 18%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
91.3%
ARMY Penalty, False Start (Glen Coates) to the Army 40Similar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 15
OWN 40
0
91.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for no gain to the Army 40Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 15
OWN 40
-6
92.1%
Kell Walker run for a loss of 6 yards to the Army 34Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 21
OWN 34
+32
92.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Kell Walker for 32 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
90.6%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Jordan Asberry for 3 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+4
90.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+3
91.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Duke 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
90.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+6
91.8%
Sandon McCoy run for 6 yds to the Duke 15Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+5
92.4%
Connor Slomka run for 5 yds to the Duke 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
92.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 7 yds to the Duke 3Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
82.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. 3 Yd Run (Landon Salyers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:0788% → 95%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+29
87.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 14 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Ryan Parker) to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
88.0%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-4
88.0%
Brittain Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 40Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+10
87.1%
Daniel Jones run for 10 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q3 3:49
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+5
86.8%
Brittain Brown run for 5 yds to the Army 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+18
88.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 18 yds to the Army 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
95.3%
Deon Jackson 7 Yd Run (Collin Wareham Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:116% → 16%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
94.5%
Hopkins Jr., Kelvin pass incomplete to Coates, Glen, PENALTY ARMY holding (Schuffert, Austin) 10 yards to the ARMY15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
94.6%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Glen CoatesSimilar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+28
94.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Kell Walker for 28 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
94.4%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+10
94.5%
Sandon McCoy run for 10 yds to the Duke 45 Sandon McCoy fumbled, forced by Damani Neal, recovered by Army for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
84.2%
Camden Harrison 45 Yd pass from Kelvin Hopkins Jr. (Landon Salyers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:2088% → 97%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
87.8%
Brittain Brown run for 11 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
89.0%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+16
88.9%
T.J. Rahming run for 16 yds to the Army 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
88.9%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+13
89.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 13 yds to the Army 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
96.7%
Aaron Young 25 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Collin Wareham Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16MISSED FG
17 plays · 47 yds · 6:324% → 3%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.9%
Calen Holt run for 7 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
95.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
95.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for no gain to the Army 32Similar
Q4 11:48
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+13
96.1%
Calen Holt run for 13 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
96.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 4 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+19
96.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Jordan Asberry for 19 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
96.0%
ARMY Penalty, False Start (Kell Walker) to the Duke 37Similar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+7
96.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Glen Coates for 7 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
95.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Glen CoatesSimilar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 8
OPP 30
-5
96.5%
ARMY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Duke 35Similar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 13
OPP 35
0
96.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Glen CoatesSimilar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 13
OPP 35
+18
96.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Camden Harrison for 18 yds to the Duke 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
96.0%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan AsberrySimilar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-13
96.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. sacked by Victor Dimukeje for a loss of 13 yards to the Duke 30Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 23
OPP 30
+2
96.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 21
OPP 28
+45
97.1%
Landon Salyers 45 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Drew Jordan Dylan Singleton return for 33 yds to the Army 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17FG
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:3398% → 99%
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
97.5%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+15
97.8%
Jones, Daniel pass incomplete to Taylor, Chris, PENALTY ARMY pass interference (Bourdeau, Javhari) 15 yards to the ARMY15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
97.8%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Army 15Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-1
97.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 16Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+4
97.8%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the Army 12Similar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+30
99.3%
Collin Wareham 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:221% → 1%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Glen CoatesSimilar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Kell WalkerSimilar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Glen CoatesSimilar
Q4 3:32
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.4%
Nick Schrage punt for 46 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for 8 yds to the Duke 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19END OF GAME
6 plays · 19 yds · 3:0599% → 100%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.4%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 5 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+5
99.5%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 5 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.6%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 2 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+3
99.6%
Marvin Hubbard III run for 3 yds to the Army 48Similar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 5
OPP 48
-5
99.6%
DUKE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+9
99.6%
Quentin Harris run for 9 yds to the Army 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:57
Camden Harrison 45 Yd pass from Kelvin Hopkins Jr. (Landon Salyers Kick)
-10.3
TD · Q3 5:44
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. 3 Yd Run (Landon Salyers Kick)
-9.8
TD · Q4 13:27
Aaron Young 25 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Collin Wareham Kick)
+7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com