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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadFUR aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreFUR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:09 · Darien Rencher run for 4 yds to the Furm 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 9:19: Greg Huegel 49 yd FG GOOD — CLEM win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:54: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Diondre Overton for 6 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:03: Travis Etienne run for 7 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8FUR made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 11:41CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 11:41CLEM 4th & 5 at FUR 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.5%41% to convertField goal99.4%−0.127% to makePunt99.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 11:36FUR 4th & 13 at FUR 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.220% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q1 2:45CLEM 4th & 8 at FUR 18, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snapGo for it99.0%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call99.0%79% to makePunt98.6%−0.4average punt
- Q2 13:10FUR 4th & 1 at CLEM 38, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.3%70% to convertField goal1.1%−0.238% to makePunt1.1%−0.2average punt
- Q2 9:19CLEM 4th & 9 at FUR 32, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.3% before the snapGo for it98.3%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call98.3%51% to makePunt98.2%−0.1average punt
- Q2 9:19FUR 4th & 7 at CLEM 47, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.3%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q2 5:20CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 10, up 13Close callWent for it · 98.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.3%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt98.4%average punt
- Q2 2:21FUR 4th & 8 at FUR 15, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q3 15:00FUR 4th & 10 at FUR 45, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 11:31CLEM 4th & 6 at FUR 37, up 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%40% to convertField goal99.8%−0.140% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 7:51FUR 4th & 7 at FUR 36, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 5:26FUR 4th & 21 at FUR 40, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 13:42FUR 4th & 25 at FUR 10, down 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 11:31CLEM 4th & 11 at FUR 38, up 48Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.127% to convertField goal99.9%38% to makePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 5:05CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 12, up 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6FUR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 7:50CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:54CLEM Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:03CLEM Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:26CLEM Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:08CLEM Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:42CLEM Touchdown, up 47 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:18FUR Touchdown, down 42 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1DOWNS13 plays · 31 yds · 3:19100% → 100%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.8%
Kelly Bryant run for a loss of 5 yards to the Clem 29 Kelly Bryant fumbled, recovered by Clem Kelly Bryant , return for 9 yds to the Clem 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
99.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tee Higgins for 8 yds to the Clem 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
99.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for no gain to the Furm 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 11:36
4TH & 13
OWN 41
+25
99.7%
Grayson Atkins punt for 41 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for 25 yds to the Clem 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3TD4 plays · 57 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
99.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Trevion Thompson for 4 yds to the Clem 47Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+8
99.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tee Higgins for 8 yds to the Furm 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+40
99.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 40 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.6%
JeMar Lincoln run for a loss of 3 yards to the Furm 22 JeMar Lincoln fumbled, recovered by Furm JeMar LincolnSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
99.6%
JeMar Lincoln pass incomplete to Thomas Gordon (MUSE), PENALTY CU pass interference (MUSE) 15 yards to the CU43, 1ST DOWN FUR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+2
99.6%
Team run for a loss of 28 yards to the Furm 29 Team fumbled, recovered by Furm JeMar Lincoln , return for 2 yds to the Furm 29Similar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 38
OWN 29
+62
99.6%
Grayson Atkins punt for 53 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for 62 yds to the Furm 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5FG4 plays · 2 yds · 1:14100% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 6DOWNS12 plays · 37 yds · 4:351% → 1%
Q1 1:26
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+16
99.4%
JeMar Lincoln pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 16 yds to the Clem 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7FG9 plays · 30 yds · 3:4599% → 99%
FURDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 28 yds · 0:001% → 1%
CLEMDrive 9TD11 plays · 95 yds · 2:2699% → 100%
Q2 5:20
4TH & 5
OWN 10
+18
99.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Trevion Thompson for 18 yds to the Clem 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+42
99.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for 42 yds to the Furm 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
99.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Diondre Overton for 6 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 10PUNT8 plays · -10 yds · 0:330% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11TD5 plays · 38 yds · 1:11100% → 100%
FURDrive 12END OF HALF3 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
FURDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
99.8%
JeMar Lincoln pass incomplete to Cam Burnette, PENALTY CU pass interference (MULLEN) 15 yards to the FUR45, 1ST DOWN FUR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 49
-4
99.8%
JeMar Lincoln sacked by Christian Wilkins for a loss of 4 yards to the Furm 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14DOWNS9 plays · 56 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
99.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 8 yds to the Clem 38Similar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
99.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 16 yds to the Furm 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
99.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 1 yd to the Furm 40Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-9
99.9%
Kelly Bryant sacked by Adrian Hope and Parker Stokes for a loss of 9 yards to the Furm 49Similar
Q3 11:31
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+4
99.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Diondre Overton for 4 yds to the Furm 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
CLEMDrive 16TD4 plays · 79 yds · 0:57100% → 100%
Q3 6:23
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+38
99.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Derion Kendrick for 38 yds to the Furm 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:26
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-8
99.9%
Darren Grainger sacked by Albert Huggins and Jordan Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the Furm 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18TD3 plays · 92 yds · 1:17100% → 100%
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 15 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 19FUMBLE5 plays · -13 yds · 0:080% → 0%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-10
99.9%
JeMar Lincoln run for a loss of 10 yards to the Furm 12 JeMar Lincoln fumbled, forced by Derion Kendrick, recovered by Clem Derion KendrickSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20TD2 plays · 12 yds · 0:38100% → 100%
FURDrive 21PUNT5 plays · -15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:42
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-13
100.0%
Darren Grainger run for a loss of 13 yards to the Furm 8 Darren Grainger fumbled, recovered by Furm Darren GraingerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 22PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
100.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Cannon Smith for 6 yds to the Furm 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 23FUMBLE8 plays · 74 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:05
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+3
100.0%
Darren Grainger run for 3 yds to the Clem 6 Darren Grainger fumbled, forced by Regan Upshaw, recovered by Clem Hunter RenfrowSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 25TD6 plays · 41 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
100.0%
Darren Grainger pass incomplete to Dejuan Bell, PENALTY CU pass interference 15 yards to the CU26, 1ST DOWN FUR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
100.0%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ryan DeLuca for 16 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 26END OF GAME4 plays · 17 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:54
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Diondre Overton for 6 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q2 1:03
Travis Etienne run for 7 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
+0.2
FG · Q2 9:19
Greg Huegel 49 yd FG GOOD
+0.1