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OKST

Oklahoma State 24 at TCU 31

TCU
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFUMBLETDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:03 · Taylor Cornelius pass intercepted Jeff Gladney return for 7 yds to the TCU 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 86Home team on offense+2.7Pregame prior−6.7Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Time remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:09: Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 6 yds for a TD (Cole Bunce KICK) — TCU win probability +12.0 pts (now 58%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. FUMBLE · Q3 14:43: Chuba Hubbard run for a loss of 5 yards Chuba Hubbard fumbled, recovered by TCU Jawuan Johnson , return for 15 yds TCU Penalty, false start (Anthony McKinney) to the OKSt 8 (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +13.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:37: Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +13.2 pts (now 22%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:04: Taylor Cornelius run for 7 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +13.9 pts (now 28%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:07: Taylor Cornelius run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +15.4 pts (now 25%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9OKST made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 12:30OKST 4th & 13 at TCU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    61.4%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:30TCU 4th & 1 at OKST 49, down 3
    Close callPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:29OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:28TCU 4th & 7 at OKST 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:28OKST 4th & 12 at OKST 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00TCU 4th & 9 at OKST 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:04OKST 4th & 15 at OKST 9, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:46TCU 4th & 11 at TCU 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:34OKST 4th & 5 at OKST 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:06TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:14OKST 4th & 13 at OKST 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−2.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:03OKST 4th & 1 at OKST 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    48.5%−2.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:43OKST 4th & 8 at OKST 27, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:42OKST 4th & 16 at OKST 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−3.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:30TCU 4th & 3 at OKST 9, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.4%−0.7
    89% to make
    Punt
    81.1%−8.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00TCU 4th & 11 at OKST 36, up 14
    Close callPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    90.9%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:44TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:29OKST 4th & 10 at OKST 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.3%−0.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:09TCU 4th & 17 at OKST 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    90.1%−3.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2OKST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 1:09TCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:37OKST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:04OKST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:33TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:07OKST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
36.8%
Grayson Muehlstein sacked by Jarrell Owens for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-3
36.8%
Grayson Muehlstein run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 19 Grayson Muehlstein fumbled, forced by Trey Carter, recovered by OKSt Enoch Smith Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2FG
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:5163% → 62%
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
37.0%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 4 yds to the TCU 15Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 6
OPP 15
-15
37.0%
Cornelius, T. pass complete to Johnson, Tyron for 15 yards to the TCU0, clock 13:57, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Wallace, Tylan) 15 yards to the TCU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 21
OPP 30
-2
37.1%
Chuba Hubbard run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 32Similar
Q1 13:57
3RD & 23
OPP 32
+10
37.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Landon Wolf for 10 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 13
OPP 22
+39
37.6%
Matt Ammendola 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
37.5%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 4 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+13
37.6%
Sewo Olonilua run for 13 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
37.7%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Ni'Jeel Meeking for 3 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+5
37.8%
Sewo Olonilua run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 2
50
+1
37.7%
Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd to the OKSt 49Similar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
37.6%
Adam Nunez punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
38.4%
Chuba Hubbard run for 1 yd to the OKSt 28Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+5
38.4%
Cornelius, T. pass incomplete to Wallace, Tylan, PENALTY TCU offside defense (Collier, L.J.) 5 yards to the OSU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-5
38.2%
Chuba Hubbard run for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 32 Chuba Hubbard fumbled,Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+6
38.5%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Britton Abbott for 6 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
38.1%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the OKSt 41Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
38.1%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Landon WolfSimilar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
38.3%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q1 9:29
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
38.7%
Matt Hockett punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the TCU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5MISSED FG
8 plays · 64 yds · 3:2539% → 40%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
38.6%
Emari Demercado run for 7 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+24
38.7%
Jalen Reagor run for 24 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
39.3%
Jalen Reagor run for 4 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+26
39.4%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Taye Barber for 11 yds to the OKLAST 41 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Calvin Bundage) to the OKSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
39.8%
Grayson Muehlstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
39.8%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the OKSt 23Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
39.5%
Grayson Muehlstein pass incomplete to Ni'Jeel MeekingSimilar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+40
39.7%
Cole Bunce 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-11
39.6%
Cornelius, T. pass complete to Stoner, Dillon for 8 yards to the OSU31 (Issahaku, R.;Small, Niko), PENALTY OSU personal foul (Jenkins, Teven) 11 yards to the OSU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 21
OWN 12
+5
39.7%
Chuba Hubbard run for 5 yds to the OKSt 17Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 16
OWN 17
0
39.7%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Landon WolfSimilar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 16
OWN 17
+4
40.1%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the OKSt 21Similar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 12
OWN 21
0
40.4%
Matt Hockett punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:3940% → 40%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
39.7%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Taye Barber for 10 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
40.0%
Emari Demercado run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 35Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+7
39.7%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 7 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+10
40.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 10 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
41.9%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 1 yd to the OKSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
41.9%
Grayson Muehlstein pass incomplete to Jalen Reagor, broken up by Kenneth Edison-McGruderSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
41.2%
Grayson Muehlstein pass incomplete to Taye BarberSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
39.9%
Adam Nunez punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-4
39.9%
LD Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 9 LD Brown fumbled, recovered by OKSt LD BrownSimilar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 15
OWN 9
0
40.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan Wallace, broken up by Jeff GladneySimilar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 15
OWN 9
0
40.7%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan Wallace, broken up by Jeff GladneySimilar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 15
OWN 9
0
41.2%
Matt Hockett punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the TCU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1442% → 41%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
42.2%
Derius Davis run for 1 yd to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-2
42.1%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Jalen Reagor for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 47Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 11
OWN 47
0
41.7%
Grayson Muehlstein pass incomplete to Jaelan AustinSimilar
Q2 11:46
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
41.0%
Adam Nunez punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
41.0%
Taylor Cornelius run for 5 yds to the OKSt 17Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+5
40.8%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 5 yds to the OKSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
40.9%
LD Brown run for 3 yds to the OKSt 25Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+2
40.7%
LD Brown run for 2 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
41.1%
LD Brown run for no gain to the OKSt 27Similar
Q2 11:34
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
41.8%
Matt Hockett punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the TCU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
42.1%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 10 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
43.6%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 4 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-2
43.9%
Grayson Muehlstein run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 44Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+2
42.1%
Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q2 9:06
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
41.6%
Adam Nunez punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
40.6%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 1 yd to the OKSt 21Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
40.7%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Dillon Stoner, broken up by Arico EvansSimilar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-4
41.4%
Taylor Cornelius sacked by Corey Bethley for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 17Similar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
42.4%
Matt Hockett punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the TCU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 4:0742% → 58%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
42.0%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 11 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
43.8%
Sewo Olonilua run for 5 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+4
44.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for 4 yds to the OKSt 47Similar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+1
44.2%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 1 yd to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
44.6%
Jalen Reagor run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 47Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+21
44.2%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Derius Davis for 21 yds to the OKSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
45.8%
Emari Demercado run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 27Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+21
45.7%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 21 yds to the OKSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
57.6%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 6 yds for a TD (Cole Bunce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14INT
9 plays · 24 yds · 1:0646% → 45%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
54.0%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Landon Wolf for 3 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
53.8%
Chuba Hubbard run for 6 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
53.0%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Landon Wolf for 6 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
52.1%
Taylor Cornelius run for 4 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
50.8%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Landon WolfSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+5
52.4%
Taylor Cornelius run for 5 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+7
55.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass intercepted Jeff Gladney return for 7 yds to the TCU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
66.8%
Chuba Hubbard run for a loss of 5 yards Chuba Hubbard fumbled, recovered by TCU Jawuan Johnson , return for 15 yds TCU Penalty, false start (Anthony McKinney) to the OKSt 8 (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q3 14:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
77.6%
TCU Penalty, false start (Anthony McKinney) to the OKSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.8%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q3 14:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
77.8%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Dillon Stoner, broken up by Niko SmallSimilar
Q3 14:43
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
78.3%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tyron JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:43
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
78.3%
Matt Hockett punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the TCU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18TD
1 play · 83 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+83
82.4%
Jalen Reagor run for 83 yds for a TD (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
77.9%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-6
78.5%
LD Brown run for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 29Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 16
OWN 29
0
79.4%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan Wallace, broken up by Jeff GladneySimilar
Q3 13:42
4TH & 16
OWN 29
0
79.4%
Matt Hockett punt for 71 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20FG
10 plays · 71 yds · 5:1484% → 93%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
83.9%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Tevailance Hunt for 9 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+4
84.2%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 4 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
84.2%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 6 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
84.7%
Sewo Olonilua run for no gain to the TCU 39Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+34
84.1%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 34 yds to the OKSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
84.8%
Derius Davis run for 11 yds to the OKSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
84.8%
Sewo Olonilua run for 7 yds to the OKSt 9Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 3
OPP 9
0
84.8%
Grayson Muehlstein pass incomplete to Jalen Reagor, broken up by A.J. GreenSimilar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 3
OPP 9
0
84.3%
Grayson Muehlstein pass incomplete to Taye BarberSimilar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+26
92.9%
Jonathan Song 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 2:468% → 22%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
92.1%
LD Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 30Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
92.5%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tyron JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+25
92.6%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 25 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
92.0%
Cornelius, T. pass incomplete to Stoner, Dillon, PENALTY OSU illegal shift 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 15
50
0
92.1%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Landon WolfSimilar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 15
50
+20
92.4%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 20 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
91.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 12 yds to the TCU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
91.1%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Landon Wolf for 7 yds to the TCU 11Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+8
91.1%
LD Brown run for 8 yds to the TCU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
91.1%
LD Brown run for no gain to the TCU 3Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
77.9%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22PUNT
14 plays · 39 yds · 4:3785% → 90%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.8%
Grayson Muehlstein pass incomplete to Ni'Jeel Meeking, broken up by A.J. GreenSimilar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.7%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
84.1%
Grayson Muehlstein pass incomplete to Jaelan Austin, broken up by Kolby PeelSimilar
Q3 4:37
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+15
83.5%
Nunez, Adam punt 16 yards to the TCU44, out-of-bounds, PENALTY OSU roughing the kicker (Carter, Logan) 15 yards to the TCU43, 1ST DOWN TCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
85.7%
Sewo Olonilua run for 9 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 1
OPP 48
0
85.9%
Emari Demercado run for no gain to the OKSt 48Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
85.2%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 2 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
85.9%
Sewo Olonilua run for 7 yds to the OKSt 39Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+4
85.9%
Sewo Olonilua run for 4 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
85.9%
Emari Demercado run for no gain to the OKSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
91.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 33
-3
91.2%
Grayson Muehlstein run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 36
0
90.1%
Adam Nunez punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 3:0511% → 28%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
88.6%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Dillon StonerSimilar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
88.6%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Dillon StonerSimilar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+10
88.9%
Cornelius, T. pass incomplete to Stoner, Dillon, PENALTY TCU holding (Simmons, M.) 10 yards to the OSU30, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
87.9%
LD Brown run for 3 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+1
87.6%
LD Brown run for 1 yd to the OKSt 34Similar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+22
87.9%
Taylor Cornelius run for 22 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
87.1%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tyron JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+15
87.0%
Chuba Hubbard run for 15 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
85.5%
Taylor Cornelius run for 5 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+3
85.5%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Landon Wolf for 3 yds to the TCU 21Similar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+8
86.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for 8 yds to the TCU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
85.5%
Taylor Cornelius run for 6 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
71.6%
Taylor Cornelius run for 7 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 3:2583% → 96%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+27
83.2%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 27 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
85.7%
Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd to the OKSt 44Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+4
85.5%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 4 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+15
84.8%
Muehlstein, G. pass incomplete to Stephens, John, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Williams, R.) 15 yards to the OSU25, 1ST DOWN TCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
85.9%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 1 yd to the OKSt 24Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+24
95.7%
Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Derius Davis for 24 yds for a TD (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 25TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:267% → 25%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.9%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 6 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+29
92.0%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 29 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+24
91.7%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 24 yds to the TCU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
90.7%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the TCU 13Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+11
90.7%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Landon Wolf for 11 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
90.7%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q4 5:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
75.4%
Taylor Cornelius run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 2:2388% → 93%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
88.1%
Jalen Reagor run for 11 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
88.8%
Olonilua, Sewo rush for 7 yards to the TCU43, out-of-bounds (Carter, Trey), PENALTY TCU holding (Niang, Lucas) 10 yards to the TCU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+2
88.1%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 2 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+17
91.7%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 17 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-5
93.7%
Derius Davis run for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 40Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
93.4%
Adam Nunez punt for 56 yds, downed at the OKSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 27DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
90.9%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tyron Johnson, broken up by L.J. CollierSimilar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
91.0%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Chuba HubbardSimilar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 10
OWN 4
0
91.6%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan Wallace, broken up by Jeff GladneySimilar
Q4 2:29
4TH & 10
OWN 4
0
91.8%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Dillon Stoner, broken up by Vernon ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 28MISSED FG
6 plays · -13 yds · 1:5895% → 98%
Q4 2:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
95.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 7Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
96.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 10Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-7
95.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the OKSt 17Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
+34
97.6%
Jonathan Song 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
93.1%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 9 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
92.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Landon WolfSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:07
Taylor Cornelius run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)
-15.4
TD · Q4 10:04
Taylor Cornelius run for 7 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)
-13.9
FUMBLE · Q3 14:43
Chuba Hubbard run for a loss of 5 yards Chuba Hubbard fumbled, recovered by TCU Jawuan Johnson , return for 15 yds TCU Penalty, false start (Anthony McKinney) to the OKSt 8 (Jonathan Song KICK)
+13.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com