Try the model
TCU

TCU 16 at Texas 31

TEX
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:11 · Ryan Bujcevski punt for 42 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Home team on offense+1.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:06: Jalen Reagor 1 Yd pass from Shawn Robinson (Jonathan Song Kick) — TCU win probability +15.2 pts (now 58%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 8:44: Jonathan Song 29 Yd Field Goal — TCU win probability +5.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:45: Collin Johnson 31 Yd pass from Sam Ehlinger (Cameron Dicker Kick) — TEX win probability +21.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:28: Sam Ehlinger 2 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick) — TEX win probability +24.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:18: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 38 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +3.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 8 of 10TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 11:52TCU 4th & 2 at TEX 28, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.6%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    55.3%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:40TEX 4th & 9 at TCU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:03TCU 4th & 11 at TCU 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:44TEX 4th & 4 at TCU 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    45.1%−0.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    45.2%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:34TCU 4th & 6 at TEX 6, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    48.8%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:11TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 38, up 1
    Close callPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:16TCU 4th & 9 at TCU 21, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:10TEX 4th & 2 at TCU 17, up 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.6%−0.5
    80% to make
    Punt
    48.1%−3.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:22TEX 4th & 1 at TEX 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.9%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:42TCU 4th & 16 at TEX 37, down 4
    Close callPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    45.4%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:53TEX 4th & 11 at TEX 4, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−2.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:34TEX 4th & 13 at TEX 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−3.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:50TEX 4th & 13 at TEX 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−3.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:44TCU 4th & 2 at TEX 12, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.2%−1.4
    86% to make
    Punt
    46.7%−11.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:05TEX 4th & 18 at TCU 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−4.0
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    26.2%−9.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:20TCU 4th & 1 at TEX 27, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.3%−4.0
    62% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−16.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:16TCU 4th & 9 at TEX 24, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−3.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−12.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:36TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 38, down 15
    Close callPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%−0.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:27TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 33, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:23TCU 4th & 6 at TEX 44, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:09TEX Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:06TCU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:45TEX Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:28TEX Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:18TEX Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 2:3750% → 50%
Q1 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
50.1%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 5 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+10
50.1%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 10 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
50.2%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 4 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+19
50.2%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 19 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
50.2%
Taye Barber run for 4 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+3
50.1%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Taye Barber for 3 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+1
50.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd to the Texas 28Similar
Q1 11:52
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+46
50.3%
Jonathan Song 46 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2MISSED FG
7 plays · 51 yds · 1:5550% → 51%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
50.4%
Tre Watson run for 5 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+45
50.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 45 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
51.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-2
51.3%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 27Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+3
51.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Tre Watson for 3 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q1 9:40
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
50.8%
Cameron Dicker 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:1949% → 49%
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
50.7%
Darius Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 24Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
50.7%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to Jarrison StewartSimilar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
51.0%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q1 9:03
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
51.2%
Andrew David punt for 41 yds, downed at the Texas 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:1951% → 52%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
50.6%
Tre Watson run for 1 yd to the Texas 36Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+17
50.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 17 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
51.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+2
51.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
51.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Lil'Jordan HumphreySimilar
Q1 6:44
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+8
51.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 8 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
52.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5TD
5 plays · 41 yds · 1:4151% → 55%
Q1 5:50
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+18
51.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 18 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
52.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 7 yds to the TCU 13Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+8
52.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Andrew Beck for 8 yds to the TCU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
52.3%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the TCU 3Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
55.3%
Tre Watson 3 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 2:1946% → 48%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
54.2%
Shawn Robinson run for 7 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
53.7%
Sewo Olonilua run for 4 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+50
53.7%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 50 yds to the Texas 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
52.7%
Sewo Olonilua run for no gain to the Texas 4Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-7
52.8%
Shawn Robinson run for a loss of 7 yards to the Texas 11Similar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 0
OPP 11
+5
52.8%
TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Texas 6Similar
Q1 1:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
53.0%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q1 1:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
52.2%
Jonathan Song 23 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:0753% → 53%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
53.2%
Tre Watson run for 4 yds to the Texas 25Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+7
53.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 7 yds to the Texas 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
53.7%
Sam Ehlinger run for 4 yds to the Texas 36Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
54.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:33
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+2
53.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
53.2%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 42 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5047% → 45%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
53.5%
Shawn Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
53.7%
Darius Anderson run for 1 yd to the TCU 21Similar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
54.4%
Shawn Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
55.1%
Andrew David punt for 26 yds, downed at the TCU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9FG
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:3956% → 57%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
55.9%
Tre Watson run for 5 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+7
56.1%
Sam Ehlinger run for 7 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
56.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 10 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
56.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Joshua Moore for 5 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+4
57.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Joshua Moore for 4 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 1
OPP 16
-1
56.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 17Similar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+34
56.6%
Cameron Dicker 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:3944% → 44%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.5%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 4 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
56.1%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
57.2%
Shawn Robinson run for 7 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
56.1%
Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
56.0%
KaVontae Turpin pass intercepted Caden Sterns return for no gain to the Texas 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3059% → 59%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
58.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Tre Watson for 5 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
59.9%
Tre Watson run for 4 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
59.4%
Daniel Young run for no gain to the Texas 47Similar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
58.5%
Daniel Young run for no gain to the Texas 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:4045% → 41%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
55.5%
TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Texas 42Similar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 5
OPP 42
+11
55.3%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 11 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-4
54.5%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jalen Reagor for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 35Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 14
OPP 35
-2
55.8%
Darius Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 37Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 16
OPP 37
0
58.1%
Shawn Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:42
4TH & 16
OPP 37
0
59.5%
Andrew David punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Brandon Jones at the Texas 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3659% → 57%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
58.6%
Daniel Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 3Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 12
OWN 3
0
58.5%
Daniel Young run for no gain to the Texas 3Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 12
OWN 3
+1
57.8%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd to the Texas 4Similar
Q2 2:53
4TH & 11
OWN 4
0
57.1%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 37 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the Texas 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14TD
11 plays · 41 yds · 2:3844% → 58%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
56.1%
Sewo Olonilua run for 6 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 4
OPP 35
-10
55.1%
TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Trey Elliott) to the Texas 45Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+11
58.6%
Shawn Robinson run for 11 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+17
56.1%
Shawn Robinson run for 17 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
54.7%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 5 yds to the Texas 12Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+4
54.6%
Sewo Olonilua run for 4 yds to the Texas 8Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+7
58.7%
Shawn Robinson run for 7 yds to the Texas 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
57.4%
Shawn Robinson run for no gain to the Texas 1Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.1%
Jalen Reagor 1 Yd pass from Shawn Robinson (Jonathan Song Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
48.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0648% → 45%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-8
48.0%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Ben Banogu for a loss of 8 yards to the Texas 16Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 18
OWN 16
0
47.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Lil'Jordan HumphreySimilar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 18
OWN 16
+5
45.7%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the Texas 21Similar
Q3 13:34
4TH & 13
OWN 21
0
45.1%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17INT
2 plays · 39 yds · 0:0956% → 58%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+39
43.8%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 39 yds to the Texas 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
42.0%
Shawn Robinson pass intercepted Brandon Jones return for 7 yds to the Texas 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0747% → 44%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
46.9%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
46.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-5
45.2%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by L.J. Collier and Ben Banogu for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 17Similar
Q3 11:50
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
44.3%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 35 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19FG
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:4956% → 64%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
43.7%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+3
43.2%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+25
43.6%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 25 yds to the Texas 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
41.6%
Sewo Olonilua run for 6 yds to the Texas 14Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+3
40.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the Texas 11Similar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 1
OPP 11
-1
41.5%
Shawn Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 12Similar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+29
35.8%
Jonathan Song 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20MISSED FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 4:1540% → 37%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+8
39.9%
Keaontay Ingram run for 8 yds to the Texas 13Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 2
OWN 13
+7
40.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for 7 yds to the Texas 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
40.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+9
40.1%
Keaontay Ingram run for 9 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
40.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Andrew BeckSimilar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
39.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Andrew Beck for 6 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+8
40.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 8 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+23
42.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 23 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
45.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+14
45.3%
Tre Watson run for 14 yds to the TCU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
44.7%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by L.J. Collier and Arico Evans for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 23Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 15
OPP 23
-3
42.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Tre Watson for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 18
OPP 26
0
39.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q3 4:05
4TH & 18
OPP 26
+43
36.5%
Cameron Dicker 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:2266% → 67%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
34.1%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+16
33.2%
Shawn Robinson run for 16 yds to the TCU 45 Shawn Robinson fumbled, recovered by TexasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:2843% → 65%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
42.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
42.3%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+8
41.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Tre Watson for 8 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
44.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
44.2%
Daniel Young run for 3 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+11
41.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 11 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
44.2%
TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TCU 31Similar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 20
OPP 31
+31
65.4%
Collin Johnson 31 Yd pass from Sam Ehlinger (Cameron Dicker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.9%
Sam Ehlinger 2 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25MISSED FG
16 plays · 59 yds · 5:4519% → 16%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
80.8%
Jarrison Stewart run for 4 yds to the TCU 21Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+15
81.0%
Sewo Olonilua run for 15 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
80.0%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 1 yd to the TCU 37Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+5
80.5%
Sewo Olonilua run for 5 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+6
79.7%
Sewo Olonilua run for 6 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
79.4%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 43Similar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+21
81.8%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Taye Barber for 21 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
78.8%
Darius Anderson run for 2 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+5
77.4%
Darius Anderson run for 5 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+2
79.2%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Taye Barber for 2 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q4 10:20
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
81.3%
Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the Texas 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
79.3%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Darius Anderson for 1 yd to the Texas 24Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
79.6%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
82.1%
Shawn Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:16
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+41
83.9%
Jonathan Song 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 26TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 5:2387% → 98%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
87.1%
Tre Watson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 22Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+5
87.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 5 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+7
87.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 7 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
89.6%
Tre Watson run for 6 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+6
91.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 6 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
91.3%
Tre Watson run for 9 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+4
93.4%
Daniel Young run for 4 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
93.6%
Tre Watson run for 1 yd to the TCU 40Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+2
93.7%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+38
97.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 38 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:313% → 3%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
96.7%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
96.8%
Michael Collins pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+6
97.1%
Michael Collins run for 6 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
97.5%
Andrew David punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Brandon Jones at the Texas 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4598% → 98%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
98.0%
Daniel Young run for no gain to the Texas 27Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+1
98.4%
Lil'Jordan Humphrey run for 1 yd to the Texas 33Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
98.4%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 45 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 29DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:592% → 2%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
97.6%
Michael Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
97.6%
Michael Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+14
97.7%
Michael Collins pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 14 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
97.5%
Michael Collins pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+16
97.4%
Michael Collins pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 16 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
97.4%
Michael Collins pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 4 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
97.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
97.5%
Michael Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:23
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
97.6%
Michael Collins pass incomplete to TreVontae HightsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:28
Sam Ehlinger 2 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)
+24.2
TD · Q3 0:45
Collin Johnson 31 Yd pass from Sam Ehlinger (Cameron Dicker Kick)
+21.2
TD · Q2 0:06
Jalen Reagor 1 Yd pass from Shawn Robinson (Jonathan Song Kick)
-15.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com