Try the model
OKST

Oklahoma State 47 at Oklahoma 48

OU
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:25 · Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Myles Tease
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 124Pregame prior+23.0Home team on offense+6.8Score differential+1.3Garbage-time factor+2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:32: Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +11.1 pts (now 31%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:00: Kennedy Brooks run for 5 yds for a TD (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +16.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:20: Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola PAT MISSED) — OKST win probability +15.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:29: Trey Sermon run for 1 yd for a TD (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +25.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:03: Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 24 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — OKST win probability +18.9 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7OKST made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 1:25OU 4th & 1 at OKST 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    87.6%−0.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    87.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:37OU 4th & 4 at OKST 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.8%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    85.6%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:59OKST 4th & 19 at OKST 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:22OU 4th & 11 at OKST 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    82.7%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:53OKST 4th & 8 at OU 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−2.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:30OU 4th & 3 at OU 31, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:34OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 40, down 6
    Close callPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:21OKST 4th & 4 at OKST 46, down 6
    Close callPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:25OU 4th & 12 at OKST 40, up 6
    Close callWent for it · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.0%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    84.1%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    84.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:11OU 4th & 21 at OU 14, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−5.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:31OKST 4th & 12 at OU 36, up 1
    Close callPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−1.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    33.0%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:38OU 4th & 24 at OU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−10.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:03OKST 4th & 12 at OU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    7.1%−1.0
    68% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−3.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6OKST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:16OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:59OKST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 9:06OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 5:30OKST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:04OKST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 11:38OU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:25OU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:31OKST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:32OKST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 0:00OU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 12:20OKST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    36.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.6%−0.9
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 3:29OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−1.8
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 1:03OKST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 3.1 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    40.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    37.1%−3.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OUDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3493% → 93%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+60
93.0%
Trey Sermon run for 60 yds to the OKSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
92.9%
Kyler Murray run for 7 yds to the OKSt 8Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+7
92.9%
Trey Sermon run for 7 yds to the OKSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.9%
Trey Sermon run for 1 yd for a TD (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:127% → 8%
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
92.8%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 10 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
92.8%
Justice Hill run for no gain to the OKSt 35Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
92.6%
Cornelius, Taylor pass incomplete to Wallace, Tylan, PENALTY OKLAHOMA unnecessary roughness (Barnes, Robert) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
50
+49
92.6%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 49 yds to the Okla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.2%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4892% → 92%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.3%
Trey Sermon run for 4 yds to the Okla 29Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+31
92.3%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Carson Meier for 31 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
92.3%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 11 yds to the OKSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
92.2%
Trey Sermon run for no gain to the OKSt 29Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+23
92.1%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Trey Sermon for 23 yds to the OKSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
91.9%
Kennedy Brooks run for 5 yds to the OKSt 1Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.4%
Kennedy Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:308% → 10%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 8 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
92.0%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Dillon StonerSimilar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
92.1%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Landon Wolf for 10 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
91.9%
Justice Hill run for 2 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 8
OWN 45
-5
91.8%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (J.D. King) to the OKSt 40Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 13
OWN 40
0
91.9%
Taylor Cornelius pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 13
OWN 40
+17
91.9%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 17 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
91.6%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 13 yds to the Okla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
91.4%
Justice Hill run for 4 yds to the Okla 26Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-5
91.3%
Taylor Cornelius sacked by Curtis Bolton and Mark Jackson Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Okla 31Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+31
90.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 31 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5FG
15 plays · 79 yds · 6:4391% → 89%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
90.5%
Kennedy Brooks run for 5 yds to the Okla 22Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+28
90.4%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Lee Morris for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
50
+6
90.5%
Kyler Murray run for 6 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+5
90.5%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Lee Morris for 5 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
90.3%
Kennedy Brooks run for 2 yds to the OKSt 37Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+4
90.2%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Kennedy Brooks for 4 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+3
90.1%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 3 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q1 1:25
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+4
89.7%
Trey Sermon run for 4 yds to the OKSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+17
90.0%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Myles Tease for 17 yds to the OKSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
89.8%
Kennedy Brooks run for no gain to the OKSt 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
89.7%
Marquise Brown run for no gain to the OKSt 9Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
89.2%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 14Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+10
88.7%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Trey Sermon for 10 yds to the OKSt 4Similar
Q2 13:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
89.1%
Austin Seibert 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:2711% → 14%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
88.9%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Jelani Woods for 15 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
88.4%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
88.5%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 11 yds to the Okla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
85.8%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 49 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 1:0787% → 89%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
86.5%
Kyler Murray run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 26Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+29
86.0%
Kyler Murray run for 29 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
89.0%
Kennedy Brooks run for 45 yds for a TD (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:2112% → 11%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
88.2%
Justice Hill run for 28 yds to the Okla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
87.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Landon WolfSimilar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-9
87.2%
Taylor Cornelius sacked by Neville Gallimore for a loss of 9 yards to the OKSt 44Similar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 19
OWN 44
0
88.5%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q2 9:59
4TH & 19
OWN 44
+65
88.7%
Zach Sinor punt for 50 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for 65 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9FG
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:2889% → 90%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
89.0%
Trey Sermon run for 1 yd to the OKSt 28Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+2
89.0%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 2 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+8
88.3%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 8 yds to the OKSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
88.9%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Grant CalcaterraSimilar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
88.9%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to CeeDee LambSimilar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 10
OPP 18
-5
88.5%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, False Start (Bobby Evans) to the OKSt 23Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 15
OPP 23
+4
87.9%
Trey Sermon run for 4 yds to the OKSt 19Similar
Q2 7:22
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+36
89.7%
Austin Seibert 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10MISSED FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 2:1711% → 12%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.3%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
89.1%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
88.9%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
88.9%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Dillon StonerSimilar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+12
89.0%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 12 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
88.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Chuba Hubbard for 13 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
87.8%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 13 yds to the Okla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
87.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tyron JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
87.2%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds to the Okla 24Similar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
87.7%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to J.D. KingSimilar
Q2 4:53
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+41
88.1%
Matt Ammendola 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0089% → 89%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
89.3%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Myles Tease for no gain to the Okla 24Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+7
89.1%
Kyler Murray run for 7 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
89.0%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to CeeDee LambSimilar
Q2 3:30
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
88.6%
Austin Seibert punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5112% → 12%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
88.1%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Dillon Stoner, broken up by Kenneth MurraySimilar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
88.2%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
87.9%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Dillon Stoner, broken up by Brendan Radley-HilesSimilar
Q2 2:34
4TH & 7
OWN 40
-3
88.5%
Matt Hockett punt for 42 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 0:5589% → 94%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
88.7%
Trey Sermon run for 11 yds to the Okla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
88.8%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, False Start (CeeDee Lamb) to the Okla 21Similar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+17
88.2%
Kyler Murray run for 17 yds to the Okla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
88.9%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 11 yds to the Okla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
93.7%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 51 yds for a TD (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:448% → 16%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
92.4%
Chuba Hubbard run for 7 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
92.0%
Cornelius, Taylor pass incomplete to Stoner, Dillon, PENALTY OKLAHOMA offside (Bolton, Curtis) 5 yards to the OKLAST37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
92.1%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 20 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
91.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 10 yds to the Okla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+23
90.6%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 23 yds to the Okla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
84.4%
Chuba Hubbard run for 10 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15END OF HALF
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:2488% → 88%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
88.1%
Kennedy Brooks run for 4 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
88.2%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Marquise BrownSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+23
87.4%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Nick Basquine for 23 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
88.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
88.4%
Kyler Murray run for 7 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:2914% → 15%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
85.9%
Cornelius, Taylor pass incomplete to Johnson, Tyron, PENALTY OKLAHOMA illegal use of hands 15 yards to the OKLAST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
84.9%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tyron JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-1
85.1%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Chuba Hubbard for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 39Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+7
85.7%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Chuba Hubbard for 7 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
85.3%
Matt Hockett punt for 43 yds, fair catch by CeeDee Lamb at the Okla 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:4587% → 85%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+17
86.7%
Trey Sermon run for 17 yds to the Okla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
86.7%
Trey Sermon run for 4 yds to the Okla 32Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+30
86.6%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 30 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
87.6%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Trey Sermon OKLAHOMA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Amani Bledsoe) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-5
87.5%
Kyler Murray sacked by Kenneth Edison-McGruder for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 43Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 15
OPP 43
+3
86.1%
Trey Sermon run for 3 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q3 10:25
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
85.2%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Myles TeaseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:4717% → 31%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
83.3%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
50
+10
82.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 10 yds to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
82.0%
Chuba Hubbard run for 9 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 1
OPP 31
0
80.6%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+1
81.6%
Chuba Hubbard run for 1 yd to the Okla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
80.8%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 19 yds to the Okla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
80.2%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the Okla 7Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+5
79.8%
Chuba Hubbard run for 5 yds to the Okla 2Similar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
68.6%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 1:1973% → 70%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
73.1%
Sermon, Trey rush for 9 yards to the OKLAHOMA34, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding 10 yards to the OKLAHOMA15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
72.3%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Trey SermonSimilar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 20
OWN 15
-1
72.0%
Trey Sermon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 14Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 21
OWN 14
0
70.3%
Kyler Murray pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:11
4TH & 21
OWN 14
-2
69.5%
Austin Seibert punt for 44 yds , Dillon Stoner returns for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:2432% → 32%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
68.0%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 12 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
67.0%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tyron JohnsonSimilar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
67.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Landon Wolf for 9 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+5
66.6%
Taylor Cornelius run for 5 yds to the Okla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
65.0%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
64.4%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds to the Okla 32Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 8
OPP 32
-4
65.1%
Taylor Cornelius run for a loss of 4 yards to the Okla 36Similar
Q3 3:31
4TH & 12
OPP 36
0
68.5%
Matt Hockett punt for 29 yds, fair catch by CeeDee Lamb at the Okla 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 93 yds · 3:2568% → 88%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+20
68.2%
Kennedy Brooks run for 20 yds to the Okla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
68.6%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 4 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-5
67.3%
Kyler Murray sacked by Kenneth Edison-McGruder for a loss of 5 yards to the Okla 26Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+25
64.0%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 25 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
70.0%
Kyler Murray run for 1 yd to the OKSt 48Similar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+39
69.5%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 39 yds to the OKSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
70.8%
Kennedy Brooks run for 4 yds to the OKSt 5Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
87.6%
Kennedy Brooks run for 5 yds for a TD (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:3520% → 42%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
80.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Chuba Hubbard for 11 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
78.9%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
79.3%
Chuba Hubbard run for 1 yd to the OKSt 37Similar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+19
80.1%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Chuba Hubbard for 19 yds to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
76.0%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 15 yds to the Okla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
73.9%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 15 yds to the Okla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
73.6%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 6 yds to the Okla 8Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+5
73.5%
LD Brown run for 5 yds to the Okla 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
73.2%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q4 12:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
57.7%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:3268% → 62%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+18
68.0%
Kennedy Brooks run for 18 yds to the Okla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
68.8%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Carson Meier for 14 yds to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
71.5%
Kyler Murray run for 11 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
72.2%
Kennedy Brooks run for 7 yds to the OKSt 36Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 3
OPP 36
-10
71.9%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cody Ford) to the OKSt 46Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 13
OPP 46
-8
69.4%
Kyler Murray sacked by Amen Ogbongbemiga for a loss of 8 yards to the Okla 46Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 21
OWN 46
-3
64.9%
Kyler Murray run for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 43Similar
Q4 8:38
4TH & 24
OWN 43
0
62.4%
Austin Seibert punt for 34 yds, downed at the OKSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24FUMBLE
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:2139% → 49%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
60.6%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 12 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
59.3%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
59.9%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the OKSt 39Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+8
58.6%
Taylor Cornelius run for 8 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
54.8%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 7
50
0
52.7%
Chuba Hubbard run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 7
50
+10
53.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for 10 yds to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
51.0%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the Okla 36 Chuba Hubbard fumbled, recovered by Okla Kenneth MurraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:3464% → 94%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
64.3%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 10 yds to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
66.9%
Kyler Murray run for 3 yds to the Okla 49Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+10
66.8%
Kennedy Brooks run for 10 yds to the OKSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+40
68.4%
Kennedy Brooks run for 39 yds to the OKSt 2 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (1 Yards) to the OKSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
68.3%
Kennedy Brooks run for no gain to the OKSt 1Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.1%
Trey Sermon run for 1 yd for a TD (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 2:0712% → 34%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
87.7%
Chuba Hubbard run for 5 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+13
86.7%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 13 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
85.6%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 14 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
84.3%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tyron Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 40Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+18
85.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for 18 yds to the Okla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
80.8%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the Okla 19Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 7
OPP 19
0
78.5%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to LD BrownSimilar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
81.5%
Taylor Cornelius pass incomplete to Chuba HubbardSimilar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 7
OPP 19
-5
84.5%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Teven Jenkins) to the Okla 24Similar
Q4 1:03
4TH & 12
OPP 24
+24
65.6%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 24 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:3881% → 87%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
80.9%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the OKSt 43Similar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 5
OPP 43
+4
81.3%
Trey Sermon run for 4 yds to the OKSt 39Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+4
81.3%
Trey Sermon run for 4 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
87.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:29
Trey Sermon run for 1 yd for a TD (Austin Seibert KICK)
+25.9
TD · Q4 1:03
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 24 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-18.9
TD · Q3 0:00
Kennedy Brooks run for 5 yds for a TD (Austin Seibert KICK)
+16.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com