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Oklahoma 52 at TCU 27

TCU
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:55 · Austin Seibert punt for 35 yds, downed at the TCU 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Home team on offense−19.2Pregame prior−6.5Score differential−8.7Garbage-time factor−6.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:25: Kyler Murray pass complete to Lee Morris for 9 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +7.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:00: Michael Collins pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 33 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +10.5 pts (now 32%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 10:42: Austin Seibert 37 yd FG GOOD — OU win probability +6.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:32: Kyler Murray pass complete to Lee Morris for 27 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +13.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:53: Trey Sermon run for 33 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +10.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9OU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:34TCU 4th & 8 at TCU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:41OU 4th & 3 at TCU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    64.6%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    64.4%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:29OU 4th & 1 at TCU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    64.0%−0.6
    79% to make
    Punt
    62.2%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:37TCU 4th & 15 at TCU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:46OU 4th & 1 at TCU 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    67.4%−1.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    64.0%−4.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:53TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:07OU 4th & 26 at OU 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−3.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:46OU 4th & 5 at OU 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:09TCU 4th & 3 at OU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−1.3
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    26.7%−4.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:42OU 4th & 9 at TCU 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−8.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:15TCU 4th & 7 at OU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−9.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:34TCU 4th & 10 at OU 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−5.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:55OU 4th & 6 at OU 47, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:46TCU 4th & 9 at TCU 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:50TCU 4th & 7 at OU 32, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−0.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:11OU 4th & 7 at TCU 47, up 18
    Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:07TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 39, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 9:16OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:04TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:37OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:46OU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:25OU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:55TCU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 5:00TCU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:32OU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:53OU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:17OU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:2127% → 29%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
27.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
27.5%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 4 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
27.7%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Ni'Jeel Meeking for 8 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
27.9%
Shawn Robinson run for 1 yd to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+2
28.3%
Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-1
28.6%
Shawn Robinson sacked by Kenneth Murray for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 41Similar
Q1 11:34
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
28.6%
Adam Nunez punt for 43 yds, downed at the Okla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 84 yds · 2:1171% → 72%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
28.8%
Trey Sermon run for 2 yds to the Okla 18Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+16
29.0%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Carson Meier for 16 yds to the Okla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
29.2%
Trey Sermon run for 14 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
29.0%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 11 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
29.2%
Trey Sermon run for 4 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+37
27.6%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 37 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 6
OWN 35
-15
27.8%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (CeeDee Lamb) to the Okla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 7:1370% → 73%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
29.8%
Trey Sermon run for 2 yds to the Okla 32Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+10
30.0%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 10 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
29.9%
Trey Sermon run for 6 yds to the Okla 48Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+11
29.9%
Kyler Murray run for 11 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
30.0%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 46Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+10
30.7%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 10 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+2
30.7%
Trey Sermon run for 2 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q1 4:41
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+7
31.5%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 7 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
30.7%
Kyler Murray pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+9
30.9%
Trey Sermon run for 9 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 1
OPP 18
0
31.4%
Trey Sermon run for no gain to the TCU 18Similar
Q1 2:29
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+2
31.8%
Kyler Murray run for 2 yds to the TCU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
31.0%
Kyler Murray run for 12 yds to the TCU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
27.3%
Trey Sermon run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 5 yds · 1:3529% → 28%
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
28.8%
Derius Davis run for 2 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
28.9%
Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
28.7%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Delay of Game (Parnell Motley) to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
29.1%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Wes Harris) to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 15
OWN 30
0
28.9%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to Jarrison StewartSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 15
OWN 30
0
28.9%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 15
OWN 30
0
28.3%
Shawn Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:37
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
28.1%
Adam Nunez punt for 36 yds, fair catch by CeeDee Lamb at the Okla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 3:4472% → 78%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
28.2%
Kennedy Brooks run for 11 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
27.7%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 15 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
27.5%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 10 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
27.3%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TCU 35Similar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 15
OPP 35
-5
27.5%
Murray, Kyler pass complete to Tease, Myles for 17 yards to the TCU18, PENALTY OKLAHOMA illegal touching 5 yards to the TCU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 20
OPP 40
0
27.7%
Kennedy Brooks run for no gain to the TCU 40Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 20
OPP 40
+12
28.0%
Kyler Murray run for 12 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+7
27.8%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 7 yds to the TCU 21Similar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+21
21.9%
Kennedy Brooks run for 21 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:4723% → 22%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.8%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
22.7%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Wes Harris) to the TCU 20Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+9
22.6%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 9 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
22.6%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
22.1%
Adam Nunez punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Okla 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 58 yds · 1:2079% → 87%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
20.9%
Kennedy Brooks run for 6 yds to the Okla 48Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+43
20.6%
Kennedy Brooks run for 43 yds to the TCU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
20.3%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to CeeDee LambSimilar
Q2 8:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
12.8%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Lee Morris for 9 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 53 yds · 0:2016% → 23%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
16.0%
Michael Collins pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 12 yds to the Okla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
16.9%
Michael Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+41
23.0%
Michael Collins pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 41 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · -16 yds · 2:4279% → 78%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
21.3%
Trey Sermon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 24 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Illegal Shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
21.2%
Kyler Murray sacked by Garret Wallow for a loss of 5 yards to the Okla 19Similar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 16
OWN 19
-5
21.6%
Murray, Kyler pass complete to Brown, Marquise for 23 yards to the OKLAHOMA42, PENALTY OKLAHOMA illegal formation 5 yards to the OKLAHOMA14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 21
OWN 14
0
21.5%
Trey Sermon run for no gain to the Okla 14Similar
Q2 5:45
4TH & 21
OWN 14
-5
21.7%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Okla 9Similar
Q2 5:07
4TH & 26
OWN 9
+25
21.7%
Austin Seibert punt for 49 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 25 yds to the Okla 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11TD
1 play · 33 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
32.2%
Michael Collins pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 33 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5772% → 71%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
28.2%
Kennedy Brooks run for 1 yd to the Okla 22Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
28.3%
Kyler Murray pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+4
29.0%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Kennedy Brooks for 4 yds to the Okla 26Similar
Q2 3:46
4TH & 5
OWN 26
+23
29.4%
Austin Seibert punt for 38 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 36 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Okla 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13FG
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:2631% → 35%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
31.3%
Darius Anderson run for 6 yds to the Okla 43Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+3
31.6%
Michael Collins pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 3 yds to the Okla 40Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+9
31.2%
Michael Collins run for 9 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
32.5%
Michael Collins run for 3 yds to the Okla 28Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+3
32.9%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the Okla 25Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+1
31.5%
Darius Anderson run for 1 yd to the Okla 24Similar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+41
35.2%
Cole Bunce 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
31.3%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Lee MorrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:1367% → 74%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
33.2%
Kennedy Brooks run for 2 yds to the Okla 27Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
33.1%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 7 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
32.8%
Kennedy Brooks run for 8 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
31.6%
Kennedy Brooks run for 7 yds to the Okla 49Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+4
31.1%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Kennedy Brooks for 4 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+26
31.2%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 26 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
30.5%
Kyler Murray run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 24Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 13
OPP 24
0
30.7%
CeeDee Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 13
OPP 24
+4
32.6%
Kennedy Brooks run for 4 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q3 10:42
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+37
26.3%
Austin Seibert 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16FG
10 plays · 31 yds · 3:1530% → 37%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
30.3%
Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+10
31.2%
Michael Collins pass complete to Taye Barber for 10 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
31.8%
Sewo Olonilua run for 6 yds to the Okla 36Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+2
31.9%
Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+7
31.8%
Michael Collins run for 7 yds to the Okla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
33.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for a loss of 4 yards to the Okla 31Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 14
OPP 31
+7
31.5%
Sewo Olonilua run for 7 yds to the Okla 24Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
31.9%
Michael Collins pass incomplete to Niko SmallSimilar
Q3 7:15
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+41
36.7%
Cole Bunce 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3567% → 83%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
33.5%
Trey Sermon run for 2 yds to the Okla 27Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
33.3%
Kyler Murray run for 2 yds to the Okla 29Similar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+14
34.4%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 14 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
31.4%
Kyler Murray run for 19 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
30.3%
Trey Sermon run for 11 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
17.1%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Lee Morris for 27 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18MISSED FG
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:4220% → 19%
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+47
19.6%
Michael Collins pass complete to John Stephens Jr. for 47 yds to the Okla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
23.1%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the Okla 16Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 6
OPP 16
-4
23.1%
Michael Collins pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for a loss of 4 yards to the Okla 20Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
21.4%
Michael Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:34
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+38
19.1%
Cole Bunce 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:3281% → 82%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+22
19.2%
Kennedy Brooks run for 22 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
17.5%
Kyler Murray run for 1 yd to the Okla 44Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+3
17.2%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 3 yds to the Okla 47Similar
Q3 1:07
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
17.0%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Kennedy BrooksSimilar
Q3 0:55
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
18.4%
Austin Seibert punt for 35 yds, downed at the TCU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0418% → 15%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
18.0%
Sewo Olonilua run for 5 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q3 0:12
2ND & 5
OWN 23
0
17.8%
Michael Collins pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 23
-4
16.6%
Michael Collins sacked by Curtis Bolton for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 19Similar
Q4 14:46
4TH & 9
OWN 19
0
15.4%
Adam Nunez punt for 52 yds, downed at the Okla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 1:4784% → 96%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
16.4%
Kennedy Brooks run for 22 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
15.5%
Kennedy Brooks run for 2 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+14
14.1%
Kennedy Brooks run for 14 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
4.1%
Trey Sermon run for 33 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 47 yds · 2:586% → 5%
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.6%
Michael Collins pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
5.4%
Michael Collins run for 16 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
5.7%
Darius Anderson run for 11 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
5.6%
Michael Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
5.6%
Darius Anderson run for 7 yds to the Okla 41Similar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+6
5.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 6 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
5.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the Okla 33Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
5.5%
Michael Collins pass incomplete to Taye BarberSimilar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+1
5.2%
Michael Collins run for 1 yd to the Okla 32Similar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+4
4.9%
Michael Collins run for 4 yds to the Okla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 3:2997% → 98%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
3.5%
Trey Sermon run for 6 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+16
3.3%
Trey Sermon run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
50
0
3.0%
Trey Sermon run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 10
50
0
2.9%
Kennedy Brooks run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 10
50
+3
2.7%
Kennedy Brooks run for 3 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q4 6:11
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
2.5%
Austin Seibert punt for 45 yds, downed at the TCU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:163% → 2%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
3.0%
Michael Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
3.0%
Michael Collins pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 10
OWN 2
+10
2.3%
Michael Collins pass intercepted Parnell Motley return for 10 yds to the TCU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 25TD
3 plays · 3 yds · 1:2298% → 100%
Q4 5:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
2.1%
Kennedy Brooks run for 1 yd to the TCU 2Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
1.8%
Kennedy Brooks run for 1 yd to the TCU 1Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Carson Meier for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:530% → 0%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
0.3%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+4
0.3%
Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+1
0.3%
Emari Demercado run for 1 yd to the TCU 39Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
0.2%
Andrew David punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Okla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 1:52100% → 100%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 27Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 12
OWN 27
-2
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 25Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 25
-2
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:32
Kyler Murray pass complete to Lee Morris for 27 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
-13.2
TD · Q2 5:00
Michael Collins pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 33 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)
+10.5
TD · Q4 12:53
Trey Sermon run for 33 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
-10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com