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TEX

Texas 48 at Oklahoma 45

OU
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Cotton Bowl
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:22 · Ryan Bujcevski punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Okla 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 153Home team on offense−40.7Pregame prior+1.3Score differential−18.5Garbage-time factor−10.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−8.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−7.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:28: CeeDee Lamb 5 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Austin Seibert Kick) — OU win probability +19.9 pts (now 52%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:21: Sam Ehlinger 2 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick) — TEX win probability +14.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:11: Kyler Murray 67 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick) — OU win probability +17.9 pts (now 22%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:38: Trey Sermon 7 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick) — OU win probability +36.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:09: Cameron Dicker 40 Yd Field Goal — TEX win probability +36.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TEX made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 5:58TEX 4th & 8 at OU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:56OU 4th & 2 at TEX 15, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.2%−0.3
    83% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−3.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:49TEX 4th & 2 at OU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    34.6%−0.8
    54% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:14OU 4th & 14 at OU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−2.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:55OU 4th & 3 at TEX 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    41.8%−0.6
    58% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:04TEX 4th & 2 at OU 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    54.1%−1.5
    62% to make
    Punt
    46.9%−8.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:29TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−2.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:00OU 4th & 3 at OU 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:39OU 4th & 22 at OU 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−1.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:28TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 19, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:22TEX 4th & 3 at TEX 45, up 14
    Close callPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:43TEX 4th & 14 at TEX 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−5.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:09TEX 4th & 1 at OU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−7.5
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    29.7%−28.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:20OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:14TEX Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:18TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:12TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:28OU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:26TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:15OU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:21TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:56TEX Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:28OU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 5:11OU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 2:38OU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.1%−2.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:2665% → 66%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
64.7%
Kyler Murray run for 9 yds to the Okla 44Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+16
64.8%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 16 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
64.8%
Trey Sermon run for 12 yds to the Texas 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
64.9%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Grant Calcaterra, broken up by Kris BoydSimilar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+24
64.9%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Trey Sermon for 24 yds to the Texas 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
65.8%
Marquise Brown 4 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:0635% → 36%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
65.4%
TEXAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Texas 20Similar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
65.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for 6 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+29
65.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 29 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+36
65.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 36 yds to the Okla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
65.1%
Tre Watson run for 4 yds to the Okla 5Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
65.2%
Ehlinger, Sam rush for 1 yard to the OKLAHOMA4, PENALTY TEXAS illegal formation 5 yards to the OKLAHOMA10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
65.2%
Ehlinger, Sam pass incomplete to Johnson, Collin, PENALTY OKLAHOMA pass interference (Motley, Parnell) 8 yards to the OKLAHOMA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q1 10:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
63.7%
Collin Johnson 2 Yd pass from Lil'Jordan Humphrey (Cameron Dicker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3INT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1064% → 64%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.4%
Trey Sermon run for 3 yds to the Okla 28Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+26
64.4%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 26 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
65.0%
Murray, Kyler pass complete to Lamb, CeeDee for 14 yards to the TEXAS32, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding (Ford, Cody) 10 yards to the OKLAHOMA44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 20
OWN 44
-3
64.4%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 41Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 23
OWN 44
+4
64.3%
Kyler Murray pass intercepted Brandon Jones return for 19 yds to the OKLAHOMA 40 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Kyler Murray) to the Okla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4937% → 37%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
63.0%
Sam Ehlinger run for no gain to the Okla 29Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-1
62.9%
Keaontay Ingram run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 30Similar
Q1 6:31
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+3
63.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 3 yds to the Okla 27Similar
Q1 5:58
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+44
62.9%
Cameron Dicker 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 5:5263% → 64%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
62.7%
Trey Sermon run for 1 yd to the Okla 26Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
62.5%
Kyler Murray run for 11 yds to the Okla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
62.7%
Marcelias Sutton run for 4 yds to the Okla 41Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+10
63.3%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 10 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
63.5%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Lee Morris for 14 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
64.0%
Marcelias Sutton run for 5 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+7
63.8%
Marcelias Sutton run for 7 yds to the Texas 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
63.7%
Marcelias Sutton run for 6 yds to the Texas 17Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+3
63.7%
Marcelias Sutton run for 3 yds to the Texas 14Similar
Q1 0:17
3RD & 1
OPP 14
-1
62.9%
Marcelias Sutton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 15Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+32
64.1%
Austin Seibert 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:2938% → 49%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.5%
Tre Watson run for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
62.1%
Sam Ehlinger run for 7 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
61.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 13 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
60.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 7 yds to the Okla 44Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+5
60.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 5 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
60.4%
Ehlinger, Sam rush for 9 yards to the OKLAHOMA30, PENALTY TEXAS holding (Shackelford, Zach) 10 yards to the OKLAHOMA49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 20
OPP 49
0
61.1%
Sam Ehlinger run for no gain to the Okla 49Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 20
OPP 49
0
61.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Lil'Jordan HumphreySimilar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 20
OPP 49
+18
61.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Andrew Beck for 18 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q2 10:49
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+3
60.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Tre Watson for 3 yds to the Okla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
51.3%
Tre Watson 28 Yd pass from Sam Ehlinger (Cameron Dicker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:5554% → 50%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
53.9%
Kyler Murray sacked by Charles Omenihu for a loss of 10 yards to the Okla 15Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 20
OWN 15
-1
52.9%
Kyler Murray run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 14Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+7
51.7%
Kyler Murray run for 7 yds to the Okla 21Similar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
50.0%
Austin Seibert punt for 54 yds, downed at the Texas 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5549% → 62%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
50.8%
Sam Ehlinger run for 14 yds to the Texas 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
48.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+7
48.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
50
+14
47.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 14 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
47.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+19
47.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 19 yds to the Okla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
46.1%
Lil'Jordan Humphrey pass complete to Sam Ehlinger for 8 yds to the Okla 9Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+9
37.7%
Sam Ehlinger 9 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9TD
15 plays · 82 yds · 4:2739% → 52%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+18
39.1%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Carson Meier for 18 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
39.8%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 9 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+19
40.3%
Kennedy Brooks run for 19 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
40.2%
Kennedy Brooks run for 7 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 3
OPP 29
0
40.3%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to CeeDee LambSimilar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 3
OPP 29
0
39.7%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to CeeDee LambSimilar
Q2 2:55
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+12
32.7%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 12 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
33.1%
Trey Sermon run for 2 yds to the Texas 15Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+6
32.6%
Kyler Murray run for 6 yds to the Texas 9Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+9
31.8%
Kyler Murray run for 9 yds to the Texas 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
51.7%
CeeDee Lamb 5 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.9%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Texas 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:2555% → 76%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
44.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 5 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
43.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 4 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+31
43.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 31 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
41.1%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd to the Okla 34Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-12
40.6%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Curtis Bolton for a loss of 12 yards to the Okla 46Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 21
OPP 46
+19
42.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 19 yds to the Okla 27Similar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+7
40.1%
Sam Ehlinger run for 7 yds to the Okla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
37.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
37.7%
Sam Ehlinger run for no gain to the Okla 20Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+15
38.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 15 yds to the Okla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
24.5%
Sam Ehlinger 5 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 83 yds · 0:5828% → 40%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
28.1%
Trey Sermon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 16Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+7
26.2%
Kyler Murray run for 7 yds to the Okla 23Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+77
40.0%
Marquise Brown 77 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3160% → 58%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.7%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
39.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Andrew BeckSimilar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
41.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q3 8:29
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
42.1%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 45 yds, fair catch by CeeDee Lamb at the Okla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14FUMBLE
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
41.3%
Kyler Murray run for a loss of 5 yards to the Okla 23 Kyler Murray fumbled, recovered by Texas Breckyn HagerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15TD
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:5066% → 82%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
34.1%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the Okla 19Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+2
33.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the Okla 17Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+10
33.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 10 yds to the Okla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
32.8%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the Okla 2Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
18.3%
Sam Ehlinger 2 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1323% → 21%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
23.0%
Kennedy Brooks run for 8 yds to the Okla 33Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-1
23.2%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 32Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
22.7%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Lee Morris, broken up by B.J. FosterSimilar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+49
21.1%
Austin Seibert punt for 49 yds , D'Shawn Jamison returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 3:5582% → 97%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
18.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for 9 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+3
18.0%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
17.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
17.8%
Sam Ehlinger run for 4 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+10
17.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 10 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
14.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+9
14.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to John Burt for 9 yds to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+29
12.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 29 yds to the Okla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
2.7%
Lil'Jordan Humphrey 15 Yd pass from Sam Ehlinger (Cameron Dicker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:096% → 4%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
5.5%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 15 yds to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
5.6%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 19 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
5.9%
Murray, Kyler rush for 28 yards to the TEXAS13, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding (Powers, Ben) 10 yards to the OKLAHOMA49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+6
5.2%
Trey Sermon run for 6 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 14
OPP 45
0
5.1%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Lee MorrisSimilar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 14
OPP 45
-8
4.4%
Kyler Murray sacked by B.J. Foster for a loss of 8 yards to the Okla 47Similar
Q4 13:39
4TH & 22
OWN 47
0
4.0%
Austin Seibert punt for 36 yds, fair catch by D'Shawn Jamison at the Texas 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 3:0598% → 98%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-9
2.5%
Watson, Tre rush for 3 yards to the TEXAS20, PENALTY TEXAS holding (Cosmi, Samuel) 9 yards to the TEXAS8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 19
OWN 8
-4
2.5%
Watson, Tre rush for 7 yards to the TEXAS15, PENALTY TEXAS holding (Rodriguez, Elijah) 4 yards to the TEXAS4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 23
OWN 4
+1
2.4%
Tre Watson run for 1 yd to the Texas 5Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 22
OWN 5
+6
2.1%
Tre Watson run for 6 yds to the Texas 11Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 16
OWN 11
+8
2.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 8 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
1.8%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 35 yds, downed at the Okla 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 1:503% → 10%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
3.0%
Trey Sermon run for 9 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 1
OPP 45
0
3.3%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Trey SermonSimilar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+3
3.3%
Marcelias Sutton run for 3 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
3.0%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 8 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+15
3.2%
Marcelias Sutton run for 15 yds to the Texas 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
10.1%
Lee Morris 19 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:5594% → 96%
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
5.7%
Sam Ehlinger run for 9 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
5.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the Texas 34Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
5.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Andrew Beck for 4 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
4.2%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+5
4.0%
Keaontay Ingram run for 5 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
3.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Keaontay IngramSimilar
Q4 5:22
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
3.8%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Okla 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22TD
1 play · 67 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
21.7%
Kyler Murray 67 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:2186% → 85%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
13.9%
Ingram, Keaontay rush for 15 yards to the TEXAS40, PENALTY TEXAS holding (Shackelford, Zach) 10 yards to the TEXAS15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+6
13.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Lil'Jordan Humphrey for 6 yds to the Texas 21Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
13.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Lil'Jordan HumphreySimilar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
14.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+7
15.1%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 43 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for 7 yds to the Okla 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24TD
3 plays · 57 yds · 0:5624% → 65%
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+35
23.5%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Trey Sermon for 35 yds to the Texas 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
28.3%
Trey Sermon run for 15 yds to the Texas 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
64.6%
Trey Sermon 7 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 2:2252% → 95%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
48.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Tre Watson for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 24Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+15
48.7%
Ehlinger, Sam pass incomplete to Johnson, Collin, PENALTY OKLAHOMA pass interference (Norwood, Tre) 15 yards to the TEXAS39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
44.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 18 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
40.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Devin Duvernay, broken up by Parnell MotleySimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
41.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Andrew Beck for 7 yds to the Okla 36Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+4
39.1%
Sam Ehlinger run for 4 yds to the Okla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
37.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+8
37.8%
Sam Ehlinger run for 8 yds to the Okla 24Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+1
38.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd to the Okla 23Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+40
5.3%
Cameron Dicker 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26Uncategorized
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
13.5%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Marquise Brown for 6 yds to the Okla 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:09
Cameron Dicker 40 Yd Field Goal
-36.7
TD · Q4 2:38
Trey Sermon 7 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)
+36.3
TD · Q2 0:28
CeeDee Lamb 5 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Austin Seibert Kick)
+19.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com