What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · Timeout OKLAHOMA, clock 00:00
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remainingDefense timeouts
This game in five plays
TD · Q2 6:19: Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (John Abercrombie KICK) — ARMY win probability +3.8 pts (now 11%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
TD · Q2 4:25: Kyler Murray run for 33 yds for a TD (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +2.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
TD · Q3 1:51: Andy Davidson run for 3 yds for a TD ARMY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Okla 8 (John Abercrombie KICK) — ARMY win probability +15.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:09: Kyler Murray run for 19 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST down — OU win probability +11.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
TD · OT 0:00: Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 10 yds for a TD (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +18.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARMY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
Q1 7:46ARMY4th & 2 at OU 32, down 7
Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
4.9%
57% to convert
Field goal
4.8%−0.1
51% to make
Punt
4.7%−0.2
average punt
Q2 13:56ARMY4th & 1 at ARMY 34, down 7
Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
6.5%
71% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
Punt
6.3%−0.2
average punt
Q2 9:15ARMY4th & 8 at OU 37, down 7
Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
7.4%
35% to convert
Field goal
7.3%−0.1
40% to make
Punt
7.2%−0.1
average punt
Q2 1:28ARMY4th & 12 at OU 43, down 7
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
Go for it
8.7%−0.1
24% to convert
Field goal
8.7%−0.1
28% to make
PuntTheir call
8.8%
average punt
Q2 0:39OU4th & 14 at OU 18, up 7
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snap
Go for it
88.4%−1.6
17% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
89.9%
average punt
Q3 13:13ARMY4th & 9 at ARMY 26, down 7
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
Go for it
9.0%−0.8
30% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
9.8%
average punt
Q3 3:38ARMY4th & 1 at OU 25, down 7
Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
14.2%
71% to convert
Field goal
12.3%−2.0
66% to make
Punt
6.5%−7.8
average punt
Q4 12:23OU4th & 1 at ARMY 1, tied
Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.2% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
71.8%
59% to convert
Field goal
65.9%−5.8
94% to make
Punt
51.2%−20.6
average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARMY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
Q1 12:20OUTouchdown, up 6 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
95.9%
97% to make
Go for two
95.8%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q1 2:49ARMYTouchdown, down 1 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
6.6%
97% to make
Go for two
6.5%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q1 0:13OUTouchdown, up 6 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
93.7%
97% to make
Go for two
93.6%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q2 6:19ARMYTouchdown, down 1 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
10.3%
97% to make
Go for two
10.3%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q2 4:25OUTouchdown, up 6 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
91.3%
97% to make
Go for two
91.2%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q3 1:51ARMYTouchdown, down 1 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
23.2%
97% to make
Go for two
23.0%−0.2
45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Zach Potter punt for 34 yds, downed at the Okla 9 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (5 Yards) to the Okla 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:3193% → 92%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+18
92.5%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 3 yds to the Okla 7 for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Okla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
92.6%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to CeeDee LambSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
92.5%
Kyler Murray pass incomplete to Marquise BrownSimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 10
OWN 22
-9
92.3%
Kyler Murray sacked by James Nachtigal for a loss of 9 yards to the Okla 13Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 19
OWN 13
+5
92.0%
ARMY Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Okla 18Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 14
OWN 18
0
91.9%
Austin Seibert punt for 36 yds, downed at the Army 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8END OF HALF
4 plays · 28 yds · 0:158% → 9%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
91.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 9 yds to the Okla 45Similar