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KSU

Kansas State 13 at TCU 14

TCU
2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:22 · TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorTime remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:26: Michael Collins pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 67 yds for a TD (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +15.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:24: Timeout KANSAS ST, clock 11:24 — TCU win probability +6.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:16: Alex Delton run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Lynch PAT MISSED) — KSU win probability +20.3 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. SACK · Q4 4:25: Alex Delton sacked by L.J. Collier for a loss of 11 yards to the KanSt 43 — KSU win probability +6.3 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:25: TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the KanSt 48 — TCU win probability +15.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9KSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00TCU 4th & 3 at TCU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:05KSU 4th & 4 at KSU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:38TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00TCU 4th & 2 at KSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    72.3%−0.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    71.0%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:55KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:26TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:31KSU 4th & 7 at KSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:30TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:52KSU 4th & 4 at TCU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.3%
    43% to convert
    Field goal
    34.1%−0.3
    89% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−5.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:15TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:54KSU 4th & 3 at TCU 35, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    34.9%−1.8
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%−2.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:04TCU 4th & 3 at TCU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:44KSU 4th & 9 at TCU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    36.2%−2.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:19KSU 4th & 16 at KSU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−3.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:34TCU 4th & 3 at TCU 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:16KSU 4th & 1 at TCU 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    16.8%−5.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−20.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:09TCU 4th & 6 at KSU 47, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:25KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 14, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.3%−4.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:25KSU 4th & 21 at KSU 43, down 1
    Numbers favored punt by 6.4 ptsWent for it · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.5%−6.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2KSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 12:05TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:05KSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:26TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:16KSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    37.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.8%
Michael Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
75.8%
Michael Collins run for no gain to the TCU 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
75.8%
Michael Collins pass complete to Emari Demercado for 7 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
75.8%
Andrew David punt for 32 yds , Isaiah Zuber returns for no gain to the KanSt 43 Isaiah Zuber fumbled, recovered by TCU Jawuan JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 1:2876% → 76%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+31
75.7%
Michael Collins pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 31 yds to the KanSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
75.7%
Michael Collins pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 2 yds to the KanSt 10Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+6
75.7%
Michael Collins pass complete to Taye Barber for 6 yds to the KanSt 4Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
76.2%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds for a TD (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
76.0%
Alex Barnes run for 1 yd to the KanSt 26Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
76.0%
Alex Barnes run for 5 yds to the KanSt 31Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
76.0%
Skylar Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
76.0%
Devin Anctil punt for 44 yds , Jalen Reagor returns for 5 yds to the TCU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
76.1%
Darius Anderson run for 10 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
76.3%
Michael Collins pass incomplete to Jarrison Stewart TCU Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
76.3%
Emari Demercado run for no gain to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
76.1%
Michael Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:38
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
75.9%
Andrew David punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Dalvin Warmack at the KanSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5TD
13 plays · 72 yds · 5:1124% → 28%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
76.1%
Alex Barnes run for 1 yd to the KanSt 29Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+7
76.1%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 7 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+1
76.0%
Skylar Thompson run for 1 yd to the KanSt 37Similar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+5
76.2%
TCU Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
76.0%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Dalton SchoenSimilar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
76.1%
Alex Delton run for no gain to the KanSt 42Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+13
76.3%
Alex Delton pass complete to Alex Barnes for 13 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
75.7%
Alex Delton pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 14 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
75.4%
Alex Delton run for 2 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Defensive holding (Markell Simmons) to the TCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
75.4%
Alex Barnes run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 21Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+21
72.2%
Alex Delton pass complete to Malik Knowles for 21 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6DOWNS
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:0574% → 74%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.1%
Michael Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.1%
Darius Anderson run for 5 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
74.0%
Michael Collins pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 8 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
74.5%
Michael Collins run for 11 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
74.9%
Darius Anderson run for 7 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+7
75.1%
Michael Collins pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 7 yds to the KanSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
75.1%
Michael Collins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
75.0%
Michael Collins pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 4 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+4
75.0%
Michael Collins pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 4 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 29
0
73.8%
Sewo Olonilua run for no gain to the KanSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
72.0%
Alex Delton pass complete to Dalton Schoen for no gain to the KanSt 29Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
72.2%
Alex Delton pass complete to Blaise Gammon for 3 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+10
72.3%
Alex Delton run for 10 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
71.2%
Alex Delton pass complete to Malik Knowles for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 40Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+5
71.7%
Alex Delton run for 5 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+2
71.4%
Alex Delton run for 2 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
72.0%
Devin Anctil punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the TCU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
72.5%
Michael Collins pass complete to Derius Davis for 9 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 1
OWN 25
0
73.1%
Michael Collins pass incomplete to Jalen Reagor, broken up by Jahron McPhersonSimilar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 1
OWN 25
0
72.2%
Michael Collins pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q2 11:26
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+5
71.8%
Andrew David punt for 47 yds , Isaiah Zuber returns for 5 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
70.6%
Alex Barnes run for 4 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+7
70.0%
Alex Barnes run for 7 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
69.5%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Alex BarnesSimilar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
69.9%
Alex Delton pass complete to Wykeen Gill for 3 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q2 10:31
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
69.9%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Dalton Schoen, broken up by Markell SimmonsSimilar
Q2 10:31
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
71.0%
Devin Anctil punt for 49 yds, downed at the TCU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
71.8%
Darius Anderson run for 1 yd to the TCU 5Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 9
OWN 5
-1
71.7%
Darius Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 4Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 10
OWN 4
0
71.1%
Michael Collins pass incomplete to Jalen Reagor, broken up by Jahron McPhersonSimilar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 10
OWN 4
+16
70.7%
Andrew David punt for 48 yds , Isaiah Zuber returns for 16 yds to the TCU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11INT
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:0934% → 34%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
66.2%
Alex Delton run for no gain to the TCU 36Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+11
66.2%
Alex Delton pass complete to Zach Reuter for 11 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
65.5%
Alex Barnes run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+13
66.2%
Alex Delton pass complete to Wykeen Gill for 13 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
65.5%
Alex Barnes run for 4 yds to the TCU 11Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
65.5%
Alex Delton run for no gain to the TCU 11Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+2
64.1%
Alex Delton run for 2 yds to the TCU 9Similar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 4
OPP 9
0
65.8%
Colby Moore pass intercepted, touchback. Markell Simmons return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.6%
Michael Collins pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
70.5%
Michael Collins run for 1 yd to the TCU 21Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+18
69.7%
Michael Collins pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 18 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
71.7%
Michael Collins run for 3 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
72.4%
Michael Collins pass incomplete to Jaelan AustinSimilar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
71.0%
Michael Collins pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q2 3:15
4TH & 7
OWN 42
+8
70.3%
Andrew David punt for 55 yds , Isaiah Zuber returns for 8 yds to the KanSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13END OF HALF
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:4233% → 35%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
66.7%
Alex Barnes run for no gain to the KanSt 11Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+6
67.0%
Alex Delton run for 6 yds to the KanSt 17Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+14
66.7%
Alex Delton run for 14 yds to the KanSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
64.8%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Dalton SchoenSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
65.3%
Alex Barnes run for 4 yds to the KanSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 41 yds · 0:0035% → 36%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+21
64.6%
Alex Delton pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 21 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
62.4%
Alex Barnes run for 13 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
61.7%
Alex Barnes run for 4 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 38
-8
61.4%
Alex Delton sacked by Ridwan Issahaku for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 46Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 14
OPP 46
+11
64.4%
Alex Delton run for 11 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
63.8%
Devin Anctil punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0067% → 65%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
66.6%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
66.5%
Michael Collins pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 6 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-2
66.3%
Darius Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 27Similar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
64.9%
Andrew David punt for 29 yds, downed at the KanSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0040% → 41%
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
60.5%
Alex Delton run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 43Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+12
61.5%
Alex Delton run for 12 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
59.7%
Alex Barnes run for 11 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
58.6%
Alex Delton run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 35Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+3
58.7%
Alex Delton sacked by Jeff Gladney for a loss of 10 yards to the TCU 46 Alex Delton fumbled, recovered by TCU Ben Banogu , return for 0 yards , return for 3 yds to the TCU 46 Ben Banogu fumbled, forced by Alex Barnes, recovered by KanSt Alex Barnes , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0042% → 38%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
58.5%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Wykeen GillSimilar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
58.6%
Alex Delton run for 1 yd to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 9
OPP 45
0
59.8%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Malik KnowlesSimilar
Q3 7:44
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
62.4%
Devin Anctil punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:1065% → 81%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
65.0%
Michael Collins pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 9 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+4
67.1%
Michael Collins run for 4 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
65.6%
Michael Collins pass incomplete to Jalen Reagor, broken up by Reggie WalkerSimilar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+67
81.2%
Michael Collins pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 67 yds for a TD (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
77.4%
Alex Barnes run for 15 yds to the KanSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
76.4%
Alex Barnes run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 31 Alex DeltonSimilar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 16
OWN 31
-6
77.7%
Alex Delton sacked by L.J. Collier for a loss of 6 yards to the KanSt 25Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 22
OWN 25
+6
78.8%
Alex Delton pass complete to Alex Barnes for 6 yds to the KanSt 31Similar
Q3 5:19
4TH & 16
OWN 31
0
79.2%
Devin Anctil punt for 49 yds , Jalen Reagor returns for no gain to the TCU 21 Jalen Reagor fumbled, recovered by TCU Jalen ReagorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
82.2%
Michael Collins pass incomplete to Jaelan AustinSimilar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
82.1%
Michael Collins pass complete to Ni'Jeel Meeking for 6 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+5
81.5%
Michael Collins pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 5 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
82.5%
Darius Anderson run for 6 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+1
84.0%
Darius Anderson run for 1 yd to the TCU 39Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
83.1%
Michael Collins pass incomplete to Taye BarberSimilar
Q3 2:34
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
81.6%
Andrew David punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21TD
14 plays · 50 yds · 5:4424% → 37%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+13
76.1%
Alex Barnes run for 13 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
76.1%
Alex Delton pass complete to Alex Barnes for 3 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+3
74.0%
Alex Barnes run for 3 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+7
75.8%
Alex Delton pass complete to Zach Reuter for 7 yds to the TCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
74.0%
Alex Barnes run for 10 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
74.0%
Alex Barnes run for 4 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
74.0%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Zach ReuterSimilar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+6
80.9%
Alex Barnes run for 6 yds to the TCU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
81.8%
Alex Barnes run for 3 yds to the TCU 1Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.8%
Alex Barnes run for no gain to the TCU 1Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
83.2%
Alex Delton run for no gain to the TCU 1Similar
Q4 9:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.9%
Alex Delton run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Lynch PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22PUNT
12 plays · 49 yds · 0:0068% → 70%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+9
67.8%
Darius Anderson run for 9 yds to the TCU 13Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 1
OWN 13
+6
68.3%
Darius Anderson run for 6 yds to the TCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
68.6%
Darius Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 18Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+17
68.0%
Michael Collins pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 17 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
69.2%
Michael Collins pass incomplete to Jalen Reagor, broken up by AJ ParkerSimilar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
69.0%
Michael Collins run for 2 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+12
68.4%
Michael Collins pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 12 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
72.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the KanSt 48Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+1
73.0%
Michael Collins run for 1 yd to the KanSt 47Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
72.1%
Michael Collins pass incomplete to Jaelan AustinSimilar
Q4 9:09
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
69.5%
Adam Nunez punt for 42 yds, downed at the KanSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 38 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
66.4%
Alex Barnes run for 1 yd to the KanSt 6Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 9
OWN 6
-3
66.6%
KANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Scott Frantz) to the KanSt 3Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+11
66.6%
Alex Delton pass complete to Zach Reuter for 11 yds to the KanSt 14Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 1
OWN 14
0
65.8%
Alex Delton run for no gain to the KanSt 14Similar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 1
OWN 14
+9
67.7%
Alex Delton run for 9 yds to the KanSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+31
64.3%
Alex Delton pass complete to Zach Reuter for 31 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-11
58.0%
Alex Delton sacked by L.J. Collier for a loss of 11 yards to the KanSt 43Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 21
OWN 43
0
63.1%
KANSAS ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Alex Delton) to the KanSt 43Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 21
OWN 43
0
63.1%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Dalton SchoenSimilar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 21
OWN 43
0
64.4%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Dalton SchoenSimilar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 21
OWN 43
0
66.8%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Dalton Schoen, broken up by Vernon ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · -16 yds · 0:0382% → 77%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
82.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the KanSt 48Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 15
OPP 48
-5
80.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 47Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 20
OWN 47
-6
76.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+23.1
TD · Q4 9:16
Alex Delton run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Lynch PAT MISSED)
-20.3
TD · Q3 5:26
Michael Collins pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 67 yds for a TD (Jonathan Song KICK)
+15.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com