2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreKSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:35: Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 82 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +2.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:03: Skylar Thompson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Blake Lynch KICK) — KSU win probability +3.4 pts (now 9%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:29: Kennedy Brooks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +3.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:15: Kyler Murray run for 9 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +2.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:22: Austin Seibert 27 yd FG GOOD — OU win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4KSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
- Q1 11:09KSU 4th & 2 at KSU 33, down 7Close callPunted · 7.3% before the snapGo for it7.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 7:30OU 4th & 8 at KSU 15, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.3% before the snapGo for it92.2%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call92.2%83% to makePunt91.8%−0.4average punt
- Q1 2:18KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 48, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snapGo for it8.3%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.4%average punt
- Q2 10:22KSU 4th & 1 at OU 8, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.5%70% to convertField goal5.4%−1.190% to makePunt2.6%−3.9average punt
- Q2 5:16KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 25, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snapGo for it5.4%−0.728% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.1%average punt
- Q2 0:22OU 4th & 10 at KSU 10, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snapGo for it96.8%−0.324% to convertField goalTheir call97.2%88% to makePunt95.9%−1.2average punt
- Q3 13:15KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 25, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q3 10:57KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 34, down 34Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%−0.1average punt
- Q3 5:54KSU 4th & 2 at KSU 45, down 41Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 12:57OU 4th & 5 at KSU 5, up 41Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%92% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 7:55OU 4th & 4 at KSU 43, up 37Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%48% to convertField goal99.8%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 5:11KSU 4th & 5 at OU 46, down 37Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%41% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.123% to makePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6KSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 12:56OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.0%97% to makeGo for two93.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:35OU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.6%97% to makeGo for two92.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:03KSU Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.9%97% to makeGo for two8.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:29OU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.2%97% to makeGo for two93.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:15OU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:29OU Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:20OU Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:54KSU Touchdown, down 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOUDrive 1TD9 plays · 69 yds · 1:3494% → 94%
Q1 14:11
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+9
94.1%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 9 yds to the Okla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
94.0%
Murray, Kyler pass incomplete to Miller, A.D., PENALTY KANSASST pass interference (Neil Jr., Walter) 15 yards to the KANSASST38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA.Similar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
94.0%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Trey Sermon for 9 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 1
OPP 25
-11
94.0%
Trey Sermon run for 4 yds to the KanSt 25 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the KanSt 40Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+35
94.0%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 35 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:216% → 6%
Q1 11:09
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+10
93.7%
Devin Anctil punt for 51 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for 10 yds to the Okla 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3FG10 plays · 59 yds · 3:3094% → 93%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
93.7%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Lee Morris for 6 yds to the Okla 32Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+11
93.6%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 11 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
93.7%
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 12 yds to the KanSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-4
93.5%
Trey Sermon run for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 21 Trey Sermon fumbled, recovered by Okla Kyler MurraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4PUNT11 plays · 23 yds · 4:517% → 8%
Q1 6:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
93.0%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 9 yds to the KanSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+2
92.4%
Skylar Thompson run for 2 yds to the KanSt 42 Skylar Thompson fumbled, forced by Neville Gallimore, recovered by KanSt Skylar ThompsonSimilar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+6
92.3%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 6 yds to the KanSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
92.5%
Devin Anctil punt for 33 yds, fair catch by CeeDee Lamb at the Okla 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5TD2 plays · 81 yds · 0:2592% → 94%
KSUDrive 6TD17 plays · 75 yds · 6:256% → 9%
Q1 0:33
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+22
94.1%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+11
94.0%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Adam Harter for 11 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+6
93.6%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 6 yds to the Okla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-15
93.5%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Alex Barnes) to the Okla 32Similar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 25
OPP 32
+6
93.8%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Zach Reuter for 6 yds to the Okla 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0191% → 95%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.2%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Trey Sermon for 5 yds to the Okla 30Similar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
91.2%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Marquise Brown for 11 yds to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
91.5%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 17 yds to the KanSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
91.6%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 22 yds to the KanSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
91.8%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Myles Tease for 12 yds to the KanSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 0 yds · 2:086% → 5%
OUDrive 9TD8 plays · 90 yds · 2:5296% → 98%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
95.6%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Trey Sermon for 3 yds to the Okla 36Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+24
95.7%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Nick Basquine for 24 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
95.8%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Trey Sermon for 10 yds to the KanSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
95.9%
Kyler Murray pass complete to Carson Meier for 16 yds to the KanSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10FG6 plays · 12 yds · 1:3698% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:391% → 1%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.8%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Malik Knowles for 5 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-6
98.0%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Justin Silmon for a loss of 6 yards to the KanSt 25Similar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
98.8%
Devin Anctil punt for 57 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for no gain to the Okla 18 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Illegal Block (9 Yards) to the Okla 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13TD2 plays · 91 yds · 0:1699% → 100%
KSUDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:181% → 1%
Q3 11:37
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+13
99.5%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 13 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15TD5 plays · 73 yds · 2:25100% → 100%
KSUDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:060% → 0%
OUDrive 17FG15 plays · 84 yds · 7:28100% → 100%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
99.8%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Tyrese Robinson) to the Okla 20Similar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+32
99.8%
T.J. Pledger run for 17 yds to the KanSt 37 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Eli Walker) to the KanSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+10
99.8%
Austin Kendall pass complete to A.D. Miller for 10 yds to the KanSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:460% → 0%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Wykeen Gill for 7 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+15
99.9%
Thompson, Skylar pass incomplete, PENALTY OKLAHOMA pass interference (Motley, Parnell) 15 yards to the OKLAHOMA37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSASST.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
99.9%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Reggie Turner for 16 yds to the KanSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
99.9%
Marcelias Sutton run for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 48 Marcelias Sutton fumbled, recovered by Okla Marcelias SuttonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 47 yds · 2:360% → 0%
Q4 6:48
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+15
99.9%
Thompson, Skylar pass incomplete, PENALTY OKLAHOMA roughing holder (Kelly, Caleb) 15 yards to the KANSASST49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSASST.Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+6
99.9%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Malik Knowles for 6 yds to the Okla 46Similar
Q4 5:11
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Devin Anctil punt for 39 yds, fair catch by CeeDee Lamb at the Okla 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER9 plays · 46 yds · 5:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:45
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+2
99.9%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 2 yds to the Okla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:03
Skylar Thompson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Blake Lynch KICK)
-3.4
TD · Q2 7:29
Kennedy Brooks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
+3.4
TD · Q1 1:35
Kyler Murray pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 82 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
+2.1